Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??

[MrTPlush]

Even if you were using the bizarre argument that Garza is being replaced by the current #4 guy it still is the same massive upgrade. In the weird theory you are marginally improving every spot of the rotation on down. So instead of say 5 extra wins straight up replacing Garza with Kershaw you are getting an extra win for each spot in the rotation to equal 5 total.

[Lathund]

People take WAR stat way too literally. They should use a different title like Overall Player Value or Efficiency, something like that

 

Yeah, the "above replacement" part confuses a lot of people and makes them use it incorrectly. The benefit of how it's framed though is that it gives you something tangible, however misunderstood, to relate it to. As opposed to just a ratio or percentage. In a partial season WAR isn't something to pay too much attention to, but over time it correlates well with with actual wins. I would imagine that as baserunning and defensive metrics continue to improve, it'll get better and better.

 

But the main benefit of WAR is that it allows comparisons between hitters and pitchers. Not perfect, but again with enough of a sample size it's pretty good. And it's a cumulative stat, so takes into account the difference in playing time as well. With regards to the batter value vs pitcher value, one simple way to look at it is that for instance there are 20 position players with 4 fWAR or above, while there are only 8 pitchers with the same. 37 batters and 17 pitchers with 3+ fWAR. But in the #1 spot, with 7.4 fWAR is Chris Sale. #2 is Jose Altuve with 6.1.

 

Which would be fairly consistent with what seems to be the general consensus as well: That position players in general have a bigger impact. But that a truly dominant pitcher who (And this part is crucial) goes deep into games (Sale is averaging 7 innings) can impact his team even more. Had Sale had the same numbers but averaging 6 innings, he'd be neck to neck with Altuve.

[JosephC]

I think WAR does a pretty good job of assessing Matt Garza's value. Below replacement level in 2015, and will be about 1/2 win over replacement level in 2016 and 2017. If a 2018 win is worth 9.16 million, Garza's projected value will be about 4.6 million which means even at a 5 million dollar salary he still has negative surplus value. And the majority of teams will probably downgrade him further because of his age and recent loss of velocity. I think he is in Tommy Milone territory. IMO declining the option is probably the smart move (unless he shows a near miraculous turnaround over the next few weeks) and if that happens he likely winds up in spring training next year on a split contract (or else he just retires).

[brewcrewdue80]

Miguel Gonzalez is being paid over 5mil by the White Sox for starts, knowing a 4ERA+ was best they were going to get. Garza's option has value to some rebuilding team with hopes to catch some lightening in a bottle. San Fran makes perfect sense on a Garza trade. Philly, the Mets, minnesota, KC, Seattle, Oakland, there's someone willing to waste 5mil at the prospect of him having half a good season or more.

Theres value to having Garza keep a rotation spot warm while a top prospect does work in AAA til Super 2 passes, or a TJ pitcher rehabs his final month or so to begin the season to then replace Garza with. In our system, say you gave up a Gilbert Lara type prospect. We know he was believed a high value at 16, now hes getting 1? Vote was it in our top 30. Having a turnaround season like Harrison/Gatewood is still potentially there if that happened whoa, if not you saved 5million/rotation spot from Garza who is deemed here not worthy of.

[JosephC]

Miguel Gonzalez entered the 2017 season with a career MLB ERA of 3.80 (107 ERA+) and WHIP of 1.28. The FIP was high (4.51) but he had a solid track record of pitching better than the FIP would indicate (715 1/3 innings pitched). In 2016 he had a 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 109 ERA+, 3.71 FIP and an average WAR of 2.35. I don't see how current day Garza can be compared to Gonzalez at all. Garza currently has a season ERA of 4.67, 1.40 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 4.94 FIP and an average WAR of 0.8. Gonzalez entering 2017 looked way, way better than Garza currently looks. And Gonzalez has been better than Garza this season as well (4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 100 ERA+, 4.65 FIP and an average WAR of 1.65).

 

Garza will be entering his age 34 season. Here are the 3 year splits from 2015-2017: 5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 83 ERA+, 4.76 FIP and an average season WAR of +0.23. IMO those numbers are not worth a 5 million dollar salary.

[pacopete4]

I am good with them moving on from Garza only because I want to see Hader and Woodruff in the rotation. I also think if there is an injury, or two, there are guys to fill in that could give us close to what Garza is now. I would rather that spot go to the youth of this team because I feel as though they are ready. When you couple that with the main three of Nelson, Davies, and Anderson... you just might have something really special if Hader and Woodruff pitch like they are capable of.

[Mr Southpaw]

When can we just cut Garza and end the insanity?

[MNBrew]

The 3rd inning tonight was hardly Garza's fault, but the 4th inning mostly was (with help from Torres, who threw kerosene rather than water on the fire). I don't think we just cut him. But I'd love to see them move him for anything equal or greater to a bag of balls in value.

[JohnBriggs12]

When can we just cut Garza and end the insanity?

 

Amen. Heck why not pick up Miguel Gonzalez if you don't trust Suter or Jungmann? He's got 7 quality starts in his last 8.

[JohnBriggs12]

The 3rd inning tonight was hardly Garza's fault, but the 4th inning mostly was (with help from Torres, who threw kerosene rather than water on the fire). I don't think we just cut him. But I'd love to see them move him for anything equal or greater to a bag of balls in value.

 

Nobody would take him.

[MrTPlush]

Matt Garza has kind of imploded his value the last couple starts. Brewers are in an awkward spot with him. Leaning towards ditching him in the rotation if they really want to make the postseason.

[JohnBriggs12]

Matt Garza has kind of imploded his value the last couple starts. Brewers are in an awkward spot with him. Leaning towards ditching him in the rotation if they really want to make the postseason.

 

I don't think it's all that awkward. Thank him for his efforts and part ways. He'll still collect his checks. With the pitching they have close to the major leagues, there's no way he's been in their plans for 2018 anyway and he's not been pitching well now for nearly a month. They need an alternative to him the rest of the way, either internal or from outside and have today and tomorrow to do something to get a veteran like a Chacin or a Gonzalez.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I think this is a no brainer at this point. He pitched himself out of the rotation and the option in the offseason. Maybe you start him Sunday if the other guys aren't lined up, but have Suter ready to go when he falters or starts shaky. But that should be his last start. Suter, Jungman, Guerra and skipping the spot on with off days is the way to go. With bye days each of the next two weeks that should help and after that they'll have a pretty good idea where they're at in the standings and if still alive.

[pacopete4]

Garza seemed to take on a leadership/mentor role in the offseason with Luis Ortiz. Maybe you go up to him and tell him that you are putting Woodruff in his spot and bringing up Guerra to fill the fifth. Ask him to pitch out of the pen to cover innings that need to be and mentor a younger pitcher. If he can't do that, then so be it and move on.

[adambr2]

Hopefully he will handle it better than he did last time. I don't see Stearns adding the 'If you want to' at the end of his requesting him to move to the pen like he got the benefit of last time.

[Jose Cardenal1]

As the person who started this thread last November there were certain times during the year where I felt I was right in thinking a 2018 Garza at $5 would bring back a nice piece or two. Now I don't even want to bother picking up the option. Roll that money into bringing back Swarzak or Walker.

[rcc]

Garza is not significant in any way. Releasing him is the only thing to do at this point. Bad outing again last night. Nobody will want him. Eat the rest of the contract and next year get someone else to be a starter. Woodruff or Hader would be my choice.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If I can get a starter who's giving me a 3.7 ERA and 6 innings, I'll gladly pay $5 million. Just look at some of the junk that even decent teams are rolling out there in their rotations. Granted Garza isn't going to fetch a great return from a contender at the trading deadline, but you're telling me you couldn't flip him in the offseason to a team that has playoff hopes but is short in the rotation?

 

I was wrong. Garza is dunzo. The only value in continuing to pitch him is improving the value of 2018's 1st round pick.

 

Of course, this means he'll sign a minor league deal with the Cardinals and throw up a sub-3.00 ERA next year. Because that would be the Brewers' luck.

[MNBrew]

If I can get a starter who's giving me a 3.7 ERA and 6 innings, I'll gladly pay $5 million. Just look at some of the junk that even decent teams are rolling out there in their rotations. Granted Garza isn't going to fetch a great return from a contender at the trading deadline, but you're telling me you couldn't flip him in the offseason to a team that has playoff hopes but is short in the rotation?

 

I was wrong. Garza is dunzo. The only value in continuing to pitch him is improving the value of 2018's 1st round pick.

 

Of course, this means he'll sign a minor league deal with the Cardinals and throw up a sub-3.00 ERA next year. Because that would be the Brewers' luck.

Just like Mark Reynolds.... except the effect was delayed a year 'til 2017. With how putridly he hit in the 2nd half of his year in MIL, who could've seen this coming? This rebound year in COL is worthy of Comeback Player of the Year.

 

The frequency with which this sort of thing happens with the Cardinals is unbelievable. Heck, even it took 2 months, a full season, and 2 more months -- 112 games' worth -- for "the Cardinals effect" to stop working on Jonathan Broxton and for them to release him at the end of May.

 

So it would be just the Brewers' luck for the "Cardinals effect" to happen with Garza. That said, with how it's gone with him 3 of his past 5 starts for MIL, at this point I'd send him to StL anyway.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Please say they're pulling the plug on Garza, please!!!!!

[brewmann04]

I have a feeling that this might be his last start.

[gregmag]

Garza has surplus value. How this is still being argued is amazing.

 

Simply because he's not a liked player. They can spin it any way they want but that's what it comes down to.

 

Usually when people disagree with you, they have reasons. Disrespecting those people by accusing them of lacking reasons can end up looking bad as time goes by.

 

Matt Garza, 2015-2017:

 

2015: xFIP 4.50, bWAR 0.5, salary $12.5 million

2016: xFIP 4.49, bWAR 1.3, salary $12.5 million

2017 (through August): xFIP 5.13, bWAR 0.9, salary (full season) $12.5 million

 

The main reason a lot of us wanted to dump Garza at many points over the past couple of years is that he's been a bad pitcher. We thought he was likely to be as bad this year as over the past two years. We were wrong; he's been worse.

 

Now, let me be clear: I dislike Matt Garza intensely. Having him gone would make me happy. But if he's helping the team, who cares what I think of his personality? I sure don't. He's not some domestic abuser, where dumping him is arguably a moral imperative. He's just a jerk. That's not a reason to dump him.

 

The fact that he was a petulant crybaby who quit on the team when his epic-length leash finally got yanked last year -- that's arguably a reason to dump him. I thought it was. But let's assume I was wrong about that.

 

He's a bad pitcher. He shouldn't be starting ahead of Woodruff, Guerra, Jungman, Suter when healthy, or for that matter Derby.

 

Does he have 2018 surplus value now? I have no idea, really. What is he really at this point -- a 5-inning, 5.00 starter? For $5 million? That's some pretty advanced, depressing math. I assume most contenders have a better #5 than him and most noncontenders have young guys they want to audition. Riley argued elsewhere today for putting him on waivers to see if anyone would take him for nothing. That's a fine idea; it would provide at least a baseline for assessing Garza's value.

[OnTheBlack]

Garza seemed to take on a leadership/mentor role in the offseason with Luis Ortiz. Maybe you go up to him and tell him that you are putting Woodruff in his spot and bringing up Guerra to fill the fifth. Ask him to pitch out of the pen to cover innings that need to be and mentor a younger pitcher. If he can't do that, then so be it and move on.

 

 

I can't fathom him doing what he did last year again this year, but I like this approach. He imploded so fast that I just don't see how you can go with him as your #4 when there are SOOO many other guys who are better options right now. How about you give your best starter from last year another shot. Guerra looks REALLY good his first start back and then when he only threw 3 IP despite not giving up any ER's, I understood taking him out of the game and then sending him down, but he's been alright down in AAA, bring him back up and see if you can get him going again.

 

Jungman looked really good a couple years ago and has survived AAA. Garza looks like a lock for 5IP and 3-4 ER's every time out right now.

 

He'll still probably get a 5 million dollar+ contract this next year, but let someone else pay it and worry about it. Or pick it up and give him away for any lotter ticket you can get from anyone. Maybe we get another Freddy Peralta. But I'm done looking out at the matchup's and seeing him listed as our projected SP'er. He should have started for the last time if we really want to try and make up the 3-4 game gap we face between AZ, COL and CH the last 30+ games of the year.

[adambr2]

I'm all about pulling the plug on Garza, and I feel pretty good about a #1-#4 of Anderson, Nelson, Davies and Woodruff. Only question is, who do you go with at the #5 spot? Guerra? Jungmann? Both have looked very good lately, as you said.

 

I'd be curious to know on Guerra what the story is, if it's been smoke and mirrors or if his command and velocity are back to where they need to be.

[adambr2]

Looking at the schedule, Garza's next start lines up against Scherzer.

 

We might as well take a shot with Jungmann, Guerra or Suter, otherwise it's basically going to be a throwaway game.