Brewers sign Eric Thames (3 years)

[pete]

Are you saying the Brewers have had this concept, or the contributors of this site? I don't think it's true for either, just trying to see where you're coming from.

 

Baseball fans in general, at least as observed through radio, forums and such.

[homer]

I still think there are some pieces to fill in before this team "contends". They'll be much better in a year or two but to contend for a playoff spot I think they still need another pitcher that's not in the system right now.

[brewmann04]

i think DS will target a young starter via a trade in the next year to build the rotation around.

[reillymcshane]

Contend is difficult to predict when so many of your pieces are still minor leaguers. I've said 2018 is the year where the club will be 'interesting'. Doesn't mean good - or bad - just interesting. As we've seen with every team, there's just so many elements involved in a team's success - and to try and predict a young club is the most difficult.

 

I'm just going to enjoy the young players, and hope they succeed. After that, we'll see when it all comes together.

[CheezWizHed]

I wouldn't be surprised if we're over .500 by 2018. Which is close to payoff contention.

[MadThinker88]

I wouldn't be surprised if we're over .500 by 2018. Which is close to payoff contention.

 

Considering the rest of the NL Central, I would be surprised (more like stunned) with a .500 plus record in 2018.

- Chicago appears poised for a multi year run at the top of the division.

- St. Louis is still St. Louis. Until they are dead, buried and mathematically eliminated, you should not count them out of contending.

- Pittsburgh is adjusting/ retooling on the fly. While the Crew seems to have their number, that can change to the surprise of many. See the previous 5 season records between Detroit & Cleveland for example..

2016 Clev 14 Detroit 4

2015 Clev 7 Detroit 11

2014 Clev 8 Detroit 11

2013 Clev 4 Detroit 15

2012 Clev 10 Detroit 8

- Cincinnati is also rebuilding. I was stunned they did not lose 110 games last season so there is still some talent and fight on the northern banks of the Ohio River.

 

76 games are played within the division. Until your winning 38 or more of those battles, I highly doubt the Crew gets to a .500 plus record.

 

The Brewers are rebuilding, from the ground up and I believe DS is doing it right. It is key not to rush the process and try to not jump ahead early pursuing a long shot to contend (ie fool's gold).

[pacopete4]

So silly to just anoint teams every year. Things can change so fast. He's building the team with talent all over the place including the MLB level. This team could just surprise some and they could continue to be duds. Just too hard to predict the future.

[adambr2]

Well, I agree you can't anoint any team any year, but I also agree that the Cubs are definitely going to be good for awhile. That's tough to even speculate on; barring a total slew of injuries, I'd say they have a 85-90 win floor for the next few years.

 

No doubt Stearns is doing this the right way but I couldn't agree more with MadThinker that you don't rush this. Accumulate talent at all levels like he's doing and let this play out. Even trying to accelerate this by one season could end up sending us into another rebuild 5 years later.

[pete]

I don't think the division is in such great shape. It would be interesting to do a thread where you look at things that could tick up or down on teams. I hope the Brewers are working and planning for one last big trade deadline sale, but I'm with Brew4U, let 'em play.

[FVBrewerFan]

So silly to just anoint teams every year. Things can change so fast. He's building the team with talent all over the place including the MLB level. This team could just surprise some and they could continue to be duds. Just too hard to predict the future.

 

Exactly. How competitive they will be in 2018 is nothing but flat-out guessing when the 2017 season hasn't even started yet.

[adambr2]

I'd guess ( ) that in January, the majority of our message board material is based off of guesses and speculation.

 

But in a few weeks the new top 100 lists will be out, so we'll have something new to talk about. Of course a lot of that will include guesses and speculation as to what they will do in the future.

[Ennder]

The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.

 

I'm sorry but what? A "real" .500? In playing 162 game seasons, you are what you are.

[Ennder]

The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.

 

I'm sorry but what? A "real" .500? In playing 162 game seasons, you are what you are.

 

 

 

That simply is not true and you see it year after year. One glowing example is the Seattle Mariners. Twice in the past 10 years they had bad teams who snuck over 81 wins but even after adding more talent they lost 101 games the next years. Some teams play way over their rosters real talent and it basically never lasts. 162 games is still a small sample for wins and losses. Baseball is a very high variance sport and the same exact roster can have wildly different results different years. This is the trap bad GMs fall into, not understanding how good their team really is.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.

 

I'm sorry but what? A "real" .500? In playing 162 game seasons, you are what you are.

 

 

 

That simply is not true and you see it year after year. One glowing example is the Seattle Mariners. Twice in the past 10 years they had bad teams who snuck over 81 wins but even after adding more talent they lost 101 games the next years. Some teams play way over their rosters real talent and it basically never lasts. 162 games is still a small sample for wins and losses. Baseball is a very high variance team and the same exact roster can have wildly different results different years. This is the trap bad GMs fall into, not understanding how good their team really is.

 

Yeah and the Panthers and Broncos were in the Super Bowl a year ago and didn't make the playoffs his season. It happens in all sports. It doesn't take away anything from their good years. Just like if the Brewers snuck up to or above .500 next season and then fell below it the year after.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.

 

I can agree on this notion. It is more like Vegas o/u season win totals. It could change though after this year depending on the play of certain players. The young ones as well as any future SP staff like Hader, Davies. I'd think a range for this team is 65-86wins. That's different to Pittsburgh's, St Louis', and Cubs who likely range from 81-102wins. In two years maybe that range to be a real .500 team becomes where those 3 teams are now.

 

I like to think of this team's range like Minnesota Twins, how they had a great 20 15 but terrible 2016. It relies on Pitching. We dont have that reliable staff. We're not a real .500 team til that begins showing up more.

[CheezWizHed]

Players that will probably come up in the next 2 years:

- Lewis Brinson

- Josh Hader

- Brett Phillips

- Brandon Woodruff

- Jorge Lopez

- Jacob Nottingham

- Ryan Cordell

- Mauricio Dubon

- Wei-Chung Wang

 

Others that will be close:

- Luis Ortiz

- Phil Bickford

- Isan Diaz

- Corey Ray

- Lucas Erceg

- Cody Ponce

 

Not all of those players hit it big, but certainly a lot of MLB talent is coming. Add that in with some of the long(er) term pieces already there:

- Braun, Guerra, Susac, Broxton, Vilar, Arcia, Thames, Shaw, Santana, Davies, Knebel, Barnes, Nelson, Peralta (in the pen hopefully)

 

I don't think 500 is out of the question for 2018. And since it will be done on the backs (mostly) of younger ascending players, I would expect it to be "real".

 

Obviously, the key is how quickly the young guys adjust to the MLB level and make an impact. I think most people thought the Cubs would ascend slower than they did.

[danzig6767]

The Brewers aren't likely to be thinking .500 for a few more years still. They may get a bit of lucky and play above their roster and hit a random .500 but it won't be a real .500 for a bit yet.

The development degree on their young players will be huge in determining this, especially on the pitching side.

 

Stearns has traded for a lot of young talent, but prospects can be fickle. Some highly rated prospects not only become really good big league players, some do so quickly. Some end up being busts. Some lesser ranked prospects become better than higher ranked ones.

 

There are also guys like Arcia, Santana, and Broxton on the big league roster already. Just how good either of them become over the next few years is far from a given either way. Same for how Villar plays going forward after a breakout season.

 

Stearns is also a very active GM. Moves he makes over the next 2-3 years will have a big impact. Through some combination of skill and/or luck he needs to hit on undervalued pitching. Look at Theo in Chicago. For as much as their young players get a ton of deserved hype, Theo never could have envisioned Arrieta or Hendricks being as good as they were for Chicago when he traded for each of them.

 

A variety of factors impact the length of a rebuild which can often be unpredictable. What i like about Stearns is that he seems like a talent miner. Always looking to add talent via any avenue possible, thus hoping that it can help cover for when some simply don't pan out as you'd have liked.

[reillymcshane]

What i like about Stearns is that he seems like a talent miner. Always looking to add talent via any avenue possible, thus hoping that it can help cover for when some simply don't pan out as you'd have liked.

 

Totally agree here. It's depth and breathe of talent. It's a huge deal - something I think people often like to ignore.

 

I've said this before, but too many times Milwaukee has played really bad players because we lacked depth. Overbay, Gonzalez, Yuni, Izturis, etc. Those kinds of players had no place getting significant playing time on a team that was hoping to contend. Fangraphs did a study that showed something like 20% of our at bats during a 3-4 year span (I think around 2012-14 or so) were taken by replacement level guys or worse.

 

Poor depth and lack of financial flexibility just kills a club like Milwaukee. Adding talent in any way possible and having quality depth is a way to help us win down the road.

[LouisEly]

I don't think the division is in such great shape.

Agreed. The Cubs have plenty of young bats, but 4 of their 5 starting pitchers last year were over the age of 30 and three of them are free agents now or after next season. They gave KC Soler for potentially one year of Wade Davis, and while they traded for Montgomery they have nothing in the upper minors for SP prospects. They will need to compete with NYY, Boston, Atlanta, LAA, LAD, etc., for any free agent starters - they aren't guaranteed anything in free agency. And no depth means that if they have injuries they will be in deep doo-doo.

 

Schwarber likely will be traded for pitching at some point - he makes Braun look like a Gold Glove OF - but with those defensive limitations what can they get for him? If they have to trade for pitching from their young bats that will weaken their offense.

[Ennder]

Yeah and the Panthers and Broncos were in the Super Bowl a year ago and didn't make the playoffs his season. It happens in all sports. It doesn't take away anything from their good years. Just like if the Brewers snuck up to or above .500 next season and then fell below it the year after.

 

 

The Broncos lost key players, that is very different. I can agree with the Panthers. The Panthers were an 11 or 12 win team that won 14 games last season. The same thing does happen in all sports. They played in a completely awful division last year and won a number of games where things just bounced their way.

 

This seasons best example is the Lions. Using advanced metrics they aren't a top 16 team yet they made the playoffs, this is because they got incredibly lucky in close games. They are likely a 6 or 7 win team that lucked into the playoffs.

[sveumrules]

Dave Cameron has listed his 10 best transactions of the offseason with the Brewers getting an honorable mention for their return on the Thornburg trade and the signing of Thames coming in at #5 on the list.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-transactions-of-the-2017-offseason/

 

"The nice thing about this deal is that there’s basically no downside. If Thames is current-day Moss, well, okay, he’s making bench-player money on a team that has to spend money somewhere and needed a first baseman. But the upside here seems real, and if he ends up being a high-level hitter, the team will have gotten themselves a real asset without any real expense."

[AKCheesehead]

Here's an interesting little piece on Thames having a change in approach and also changes he perceives in MLB since 2012.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/former-blue-jay-thames-returns-brewers-different-player/

[homer]

He looks like Prince Fielder if Prince Fielder decided to get ripped.

[pacopete4]

He looks like Prince Fielder if Prince Fielder decided to get ripped.

 

 

I still see Mr. T