Brewers sign Eric Thames (3 years)

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Thames will be decent, but wow that projection seems crazy optimistic. Would be awesome if he came even close to that.

[MKEguy]

Let's say the Steamer projections are close to accurate. Is Thames someone we keep or are we still looking at flipping him? What is the cutoff for years left of control that were still trading away? I think the beginning of this year will stink, but we will be seeing a vastly improved team by 2018.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Thames is probably the Brewer least likely to surprise me this year. In order to surprise, I have to have some idea what to expect. Basically I'd be surprised if he was an MVP contender or so bad they eat the money and DFA him this season. Anything in between seems perfectly plausible.

[pacopete4]

If be surprised if he wasn't a Hall of Famer by the time he's done being a Brewer.

[FVBrewerFan]

Not surprised one bit by Steamer projecting 272/350/865 (29HR) given i said I thought his "floor" is 260/340/810 (i was essentially called delusional).

 

You were? By whom? In which thread?

 

Not sure if I did, but I will now. .810 FLOOR is delusional. As is .865 PROJECTION. Those words have meaning. I mean this is all speculation, but both of those phrases seem overly optimistic. 30 players achieved .865 last year, so basically one per team. Seems he would have been offered bigger deals by more teams if that number was valid.

[sveumrules]

ZIPS is a little more conservative on Thames at 247/321/493, which would essentially match Carter's line from last year with some home runs & walks traded out for singles & doubles.

 

Let's say the Steamer projections are close to accurate. Is Thames someone we keep or are we still looking at flipping him?

 

Even if Thames matches his projections I think it will take longer than normal for his value around the league to catch up given his unique background (call it the Guerra effect if you will) so I'd imagine he'll be here for awhile if he does in fact prove to be productive.

[Mass Haas]

FANGRAPHS: Let's Talk About That Eric Thames Projection

 

Heck, may make us feel even more confident...

[pete]

It's worth noting that Park had a tendon in his hand that required surgery and problems with his wrist as well. He took a Chris Sale pitch to the knee too.

[monty57]

Let's say the Steamer projections are close to accurate. Is Thames someone we keep or are we still looking at flipping him? What is the cutoff for years left of control that were still trading away? I think the beginning of this year will stink, but we will be seeing a vastly improved team by 2018.

 

I think that as long as Stearns is GM, everyone in the system will always be a candidate to be traded if the right situation arises. That said, I don't think he was signed to be flipped. I think he was signed because management likes him and we don't have any other 1B. I would be surprised if he were traded in the near term, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets traded prior to his final season if he is playing well and the Brewers have an alternative to play first.

[adambr2]

I agree with Monty. Stearns will consider any offer, especially for a guy in his 30s, but I think we signed this guy to be our 1st baseman for the next 3-4 years.

 

But every situation in a rebuild is fluid. Suppose he's killing MLB pitching the next 1-2 years, posting .900 OPS seasons, but the Brewers win 70. If top prospect offers are coming in, we'd obviously have to consider it. His contract (cheap, no NTC, team option in 2020) all make him a very easy commodity to move if he's lighting it up.

[pete]

I wonder if the reason that more trades don't happen is that Stearns is pretty aggressive with his pricing. If Thames is rocking those better projections, he'd be pretty valuable.

[JohnBriggs12]

Did you guys even hear the news conference when Thames was signed? It was made pretty clear that he was an integral piece in what they are planning on being contending teams within his tenure. It makes sense because first base is the one position they don't have a prospect on the near horizon.

 

I shake my head sometimes when before a guy has even donned a uniform his trade value is being discussed. This team is being positioned to compete in 1-2 years. Remember the Braun to LA deal which fell through had Puig coming back. There will still be deals done, and some may involve prospects as the main return but mostly it's going to be positioning to improve the roster for 2018, not 2023.

 

The current roster isn't devoid of controllable talent and there's more on the way. Getting antsy to deal a current player going well, especially one you control for 4-5 years makes little sense unless you need to fill a current spot on your roster with a glaring need or you think that player can't sustain a high level and he's got a potentially better replacement ready.

[And That]

Getting antsy to deal a current player going well, especially one you control for 4-5 years

To be accurate, Thames has a 3 year deal with a team option for a fourth year. He's eligible for free agency after that, per his contract.

[adambr2]

Did you guys even hear the news conference when Thames was signed? It was made pretty clear that he was an integral piece in what they are planning on being contending teams within his tenure. It makes sense because first base is the one position they don't have a prospect on the near horizon.

 

I shake my head sometimes when before a guy has even donned a uniform his trade value is being discussed. This team is being positioned to compete in 1-2 years. Remember the Braun to LA deal which fell through had Puig coming back. There will still be deals done, and some may involve prospects as the main return but mostly it's going to be positioning to improve the roster for 2018, not 2023.

 

The current roster isn't devoid of controllable talent and there's more on the way. Getting antsy to deal a current player going well, especially one you control for 4-5 years makes little sense unless you need to fill a current spot on your roster with a glaring need.

 

It's a necessary evil for a small market franchise. You don't just rebuild your roster and fill all your holes and it ends there.

 

To remain consistently competitive, turnover is necessary and you have to always be looking ahead. Better a year early than a year late.

[MKEguy]

I, for one, am not antsy to deal him. I love the idea of keeping him, as I see him on the team when the Brewers are competitive again. The discussion of his trade value is a result of being in the midst of a rebuild. Like others have said, Stearns is on a trading spree.

 

Let's get crazy and play hypotheticals. Let's say Gatewood makes a permanent switch to 1b and improves his contact and Gideon continues to mash. That would give us two viable 1b prospects. The discussion of a Thames trade is a legitimate conversation. Like Adambr2 says, we need to constantly have turnover.

[FVBrewerFan]

This team is being positioned to compete in 1-2 years.

 

No it's not. Unless you can convince me they will somehow have a rotation that can compete in 1 or 2 years.

 

Thames is a place holder, because Mark A does not want to see a 50 win season. He wants to field a team that can at least be decent, and whether I agree with that or not, I get why he feels that way. I don't believe Thames will be a part of the next truly competitive team, so yea I'm open to flipping him for the right prospect/s.

 

He's also holding up a potential logjam in the OF, where ideally Braun or Santana move to 1B within the next couple years.

[mrn1ceguy]

This team is being positioned to compete in 1-2 years.

 

No it's not. Unless you can convince me they will somehow have a rotation that can compete in 1 or 2 years.

 

Thames is a place holder, because Mark A does not want to see a 50 win season. He wants to field a team that can at least be decent, and whether I agree with that or not, I get why he feels that way. I don't believe Thames will be a part of the next truly competitive team, so yea I'm open to flipping him for the right prospect/s.

 

He's also holding up a potential logjam in the OF, where ideally Braun or Santana move to 1B within the next couple years.

 

How about this rotation: Guerra, Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Jose De Leon (assuming a braun trade*) with Lopez/Nelson/Peralta/Jungman as possible breakout candidates (or re-breakout) in case any of the above fail. Also Ortiz, Diplan, Ponce, Bickford, D. Williams, F. Peralta will be waiting in AA/AAA to replace a struggling starter.

 

For completeness, because I assume Braun is traded, we would still have an OF of Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Phillips, Cordell and maybe Puig.

 

I would take the above rotation, a starting 8 of Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Shaw, Arcia, Villar, Thames, Susac and bullpen pieces of Knebel, Burnes, Peralta, Nelson as a competitive team that's fighting for a wildcard with reinforcements coming in 2019/2020 to push for division contention.

 

*I'm assuming a Braun for Puig/McCarthy/De Leon/low level prospect trade.

[adambr2]

Hard to assume a trade that has almost no chance of happening. Not for that return anyway.

[mrn1ceguy]

Hard to assume a trade that has almost no chance of happening. Not for that return anyway.

 

I guess (I still think a trade with the dodgers will happen for either De Leon, Bellinger, Buehler, or Alvarez), but even without we just have a place holder pitcher (best of Lopez, Nelson, Peralta, Jungman, Anderson, Garza) in there for 2018 with the others in the minors ready to step up. It's not as good of a rotation but still potentially strong enough to be competitive and upgrades the outfield with Braun playing with the two best of Santana/Broxton/Phillips/Brinson.

[FVBrewerFan]

How about this rotation: Guerra, Davies, Hader, Woodruff, Jose De Leon (assuming a braun trade*) with Lopez/Nelson/Peralta/Jungman as possible breakout candidates

 

No, doesn't convince me for 2017/2018. Guerra, I just trust a guy in his 30s who came out of nowhere to keep it up for two more seasons. And as Adam said, no sign of getting DeLeon back in a Braun trade. So the rotation that's supposed to compete in the playoffs is made up of Davies, 2 or 3 rookies (or near rookies), and a hopeful breakout of Nelson or Peralta. Yea, I'm not clearing my schedule for the playoffs in 2017 or 2018.

[rwa12]

My argument is that the only way we are playoff ready in the next year or two is with Braun. If we are a pitcher or two away at that point, given our payroll, I would assume we would grab one or two of the big names on the market for the push. We'll attempt to do what the Cubs did, go out and grab a Lester. Possibly trade some of the lower farm, but I don't think we go to the Series from organic growth. We will pay for the final pieces, and I doubt the cost will matter.

[pete]

My thinking is that if anything, they'll be sending away pitching. If all the potential contributors that JB12 listed were in another system, there'd be fans saying we can't compete with them because they have so much pitching. He even left out some dark horse candidates. It seems like there's been a concept for a long time that the pitching staff can't have more than one rookie if any, the pitchers can't be too old, they have to have performed at a high level for a long time and have to have a pedigree.

 

I think or maybe I hope this season they move several players before the deadline. I know just about every fan has a player or players who are bums and need to be jettisoned no matter the price, but really its already a pretty talented team across the board. I think they'll compete relatively soon.

[FVBrewerFan]

It seems like there's been a concept for a long time that the pitching staff can't have more than one rookie if any, the pitchers can't be too old, they have to have performed at a high level for a long time and have to have a pedigree.

 

Are you saying the Brewers have had this concept, or the contributors of this site? I don't think it's true for either, just trying to see where you're coming from.

[brewcrewdue80]

This team is being positioned to compete in 1-2 years.

 

No it's not. Unless you can convince me they will somehow have a rotation that can compete in 1 or 2 years.

 

Thames is a place holder, because Mark A does not want to see a 50 win season. He wants to field a team that can at least be decent, and whether I agree with that or not, I get why he feels that way. I don't believe Thames will be a part of the next truly competitive team, so yea I'm open to flipping him for the right prospect/s.

 

He's also holding up a potential logjam in the OF, where ideally Braun or Santana move to 1B within the next couple years.

 

So you expect Mark A to die before September?

[pacopete4]

We just signed this guy and we're speculated the trade we'll get in return? This is almost as good as the first projection of Thames coupled with going to the other end of the spectrum on the next projection.