Brewers sign Eric Thames (3 years)

[AdvantageSchneider]

Aoki is a good comparison.

Aoki was seen as a backup going into spring training and had no MLB experience. I cant see the brewers looking to platoon Thames right now.

 

The Brewers paid a $2.5M posting fee for Aoki and then signed him to a 2 year deal with a team option for a 3rd year. The brewers were on the hook for less than $7M on Aoki.

 

If Thames turns out as good as Aoki this will be a great deal.

[MKE81]

Thames at 24 - 362 AB, 262/313/769, 24 doubles, 5 triples, 12HR, 37rbi, 105 OPS+ (Extremely similar to Puig past 2yrs)

Perez at 25 - 404 AB, 272/302/730, 18 doubles, 3 triples, 13HR, 56rbi, 34sb, 91 OPS+

 

Thames career - 250/296/727 in 633 AB (94 OPS+)

Perez career - 255/279/652 in 740 AB (74 OPS+)

 

People on here speak well of Perez out of one side of their mouth and poorly of Thames out of the other. I don't understand how people can continually say Thames has shown nothing at the MLB level. His OPB sucks but the other numbers are decent for a 24/25yr old corner OF not playing every day.

[And That]

1/2 to uncle Sam? The max corp tax rate is 35%.

Brewers are likely organized as a pass-through entity. Maximum federal tax rate for individuals is 39.6%. And most of the owners will pay state/local taxes on top of that.

 

At my company we use a baseline 45% tax rate for owner income.

[AdvantageSchneider]

1/2 to uncle Sam? The max corp tax rate is 35%.

Brewers are likely organized as a pass-through entity. Maximum federal tax rate for individuals is 39.6%. And most of the owners will pay state/local taxes on top of that.

 

At my company we use a baseline 45% tax rate for owner income.

 

Yes, that changes things if they are a passthrough. Regardless I don't think Mark A got rich by paying $16M in salary to save $5M in taxes.

[danzig6767]

I don't get people complaining about the dollars. At $5m AAV, Thames is now the 3rd highest paid Brewer--behind Garza in his final year and Braun soon to be traded. The Brewers aren't hurting for money right now (or at any time in the next 3 years).

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. The twins are in the same position payroll wise that we are. Why don't you ask a twin fan if the $9M they spent on Park was a good investment.

Clearly, what will define if this signing is deemed a success or failure is if Thames hits more like Jung Ho Kang instead of Park. Neither you or i at this point know what will end up being the case. The Pirates made a better evaluation on Kang than the Twins did with Park. Hyun Soo Kim had a solid year for Baltimore. We'll find out how Sterns and his front office did in their evaluation of Thames.

 

It's not like there are zero success stories of players transitioning from Korea to the major leagues and instead Park is the only example to view a player coming from Korea.

[monty57]

1/2 to uncle Sam? The max corp tax rate is 35%.

Brewers are likely organized as a pass-through entity. Maximum federal tax rate for individuals is 39.6%. And most of the owners will pay state/local taxes on top of that.

 

At my company we use a baseline 45% tax rate for owner income.

 

Yes, that changes things if they are a passthrough. Regardless I don't think Mark A got rich by paying $16M in salary to save $5M in taxes.

 

Your initial response was in disbelief at my "1/3 to 1/2 in taxes" comment. As And That noted, high income earners do often pay a high rate in total taxes, and in some states that gets up to 50% (WI is a high tax state, as are Attanasio's home states of NY and CA).

 

In regards to the above quoted text, signing a player is a capital investment for a team, and business owners make capital investments to save on taxes all the time. Hopefully, saving on taxes is not the only net result of this signing, as the big reason for doing it is that they hope Thames will be a good MLB player, who adds wins to the MLB team. They obviously believe that spending the money on him over the next three years is better for the organization than holding onto the money, paying their taxes, and keeping the rest in a vault somewhere for future use.

 

They have excess revenues now, and they're trying to use some of that to increase the overall talent level of the franchise. This is the first significant move of the offseason, but should be far from the last. As fans, I think we should be happy that the team is making an effort to use everything available to them (including free cash flow) in an attempt to get better.

 

Maybe the signing bombs, but that's the risk any business owner takes when making an investment in their business. For the Brewers, the downside risk to this transaction isn't that damaging, while the upside could really help the team. If he bombs, they end up with a slightly overpriced LH power bat off the bench. If he becomes an average MLB first baseman, he becomes an underpriced asset, and could help the team in added wins now, and/or by bringing back a nice return in a future trade.

[sveumrules]

I came across this tweet from renowned fantasy baseballer Todd Zola, aka Lord Zola, in regards to Thames that I thought was pretty interesting...

 

"Eric Thames is breaking my projection engine. Considering KBO at Double-A level and accounting for age, he's still top-100. Just can't do it."

[jerichoholicninja]

Thames MLB numbers before going to Korea put him at a 96 OPS+. I would think that is his floor. Let's say his new found patience comes with him and factor in just general improvement a 100 OPS+ is not out of the question and probably a more realistic floor. So league average hitter at worst. For $5M-ish a year as a free agent that seems like a good deal. Now, whether or not that's a good deal for a team in the Brewer's position is certainly debatable but it's not like he's not blocking anyone.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Your initial response was in disbelief at my "1/3 to 1/2 in taxes" comment. As And That noted, high income earners do often pay a high rate in total taxes, and in some states that gets up to 50% (WI is a high tax state, as are Attanasio's home states of NY and CA).

 

In regards to the above quoted text, signing a player is a capital investment for a team, and business owners make capital investments to save on taxes all the time. Hopefully, saving on taxes is not the only net result of this signing, as the big reason for doing it is that they hope Thames will be a good MLB player, who adds wins to the MLB team. They obviously believe that spending the money on him over the next three years is better for the organization than holding onto the money, paying their taxes, and keeping the rest in a vault somewhere for future use.

 

They have excess revenues now, and they're trying to use some of that to increase the overall talent level of the franchise. This is the first significant move of the offseason, but should be far from the last. As fans, I think we should be happy that the team is making an effort to use everything available to them (including free cash flow) in an attempt to get better.

 

Maybe the signing bombs, but that's the risk any business owner takes when making an investment in their business. For the Brewers, the downside risk to this transaction isn't that damaging, while the upside could really help the team. If he bombs, they end up with a slightly overpriced LH power bat off the bench. If he becomes an average MLB first baseman, he becomes an underpriced asset, and could help the team in added wins now, and/or by bringing back a nice return in a future trade.

 

1) You do know that state taxes are an itemized deduction against federal taxes right?

2) I'm hoping that Stearns didn't have to call Mark A's tax accountant before signing Thames.

3) I agree with the rest of your boilerplate statement. Teams do try to sign players to help them win games.

4) I like all of Stearns other moves. This one seems sketchy to me and a bit of an overpay. Hopefully it will work out.

[danzig6767]

Thames MLB numbers before going to Korea put him at a 96 OPS+. I would think that is his floor. Let's say his new found patience comes with him and factor in just general improvement a 100 OPS+ is not out of the question and probably a more realistic floor. So league average hitter at worst. For $5M-ish a year as a free agent that seems like a good deal. Now, whether or not that's a good deal for a team in the Brewer's position is certainly debatable but it's not like he's not blocking anyone.

That's a big key for me. I'd be bothered if the team had a firstbase prospect knocking at the door, but the farm system is pretty barren at that position, especially at the higher levels.

[And That]

1) You do know that state taxes are an itemized deduction against federal taxes right?

But they are not for Alternative Minimum Tax income. It is generally assumed that owners of a pass through will be subject to AMT.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Who could have ever imagined signing a lower-mid tier FA for three years would have such far reaching financial implications.......

[monty57]

Who could have ever imagined signing a lower-mid tier FA for three years would have such far reaching financial implications.......

 

:-)

 

Sorry, I threw things off track. I was simply trying to say that not spending a dollar this year doesn't necessarily mean that dollar is in the bank to spend next year. Budgets are generally year-to-year based on that year's projected revenues, and I don't think the Thames signing will in any way have a negative effect on any other moves made over the next three years.

[RWeeksFan23]

I never really heard of Eric Thames; when I heard we signed him, I thought we were getting the ol' Tiger Marcus Thames.

[pacopete4]

The organization first started talking about Eric Thames and how to evaluate his impending free agency at this time last year, while he was still under contract in Korea. The club feels comfortable that they did well to get to know Thames as both a player and a person over the past year and they believe he’ll be a very productive major league player with Milwaukee. He likened the KBO to an offensive-friendly AAA environment but believes that the reasons that Eric was so successful there will translate back to the states.

brewcrewball.com

[homer]

So the Steamer projection came out today for Thames.....whoa:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3711&position=OF

 

Take it with a grain of salt obviously but if he comes close to this...

[adambr2]

Not to mention that's even assuming he's a defensive liability.

[pacopete4]

Wait, I thought he was supposed to suck? Wasn't that the previous WAR projections?

[adambr2]

Wait, I thought he was supposed to suck? Wasn't that the previous WAR projections?

 

The author of that previous projection basically said to disregard it as they hadn't made a projection for him yet. Not sure why they published it as they did previously but that was the explanation.

[stalton]

That OPS beats Brauns Steamer project. If he is anywhere sniffing that, this deal will be a steal!

[JohnBriggs12]

Look you don't literally cut a guy coming off a 41 HR, 94 RBI season just because he's going to make close to $10 million. That would be insane. They let Carter go because they figured Thames would be an upgrade and balance the lineup. Kang is a reprobate, but he's put up numbers very similar to those projections for Thames having had to adjust to a new culture. Thames was every bit as productive in the KBO as Kang if not more.

[MKE81]

Not surprised one bit by Steamer projecting 272/350/865 (29HR) given i said I thought his "floor" is 260/340/810 (i was essentially called delusional). Not sure what Thames final numbers will be but he will be better than Carter in every aspect except power but he's no slouch there either. i won't be shocked if Thames posts better numbers than Steamers projection.

 

I put Thames and Shaw in the same category for being better players than the general consensus of this board says they are.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The short Rf at Miller Park will help Thames and Shaw. Will help those increase their hr numbers

[homer]

Not surprised one bit by Steamer projecting 272/350/865 (29HR) given i said I thought his "floor" is 260/340/810 (i was essentially called delusional).

 

You were? By whom? In which thread?

[MillerParkSouth]

I'll admit to getting a bit giddy when I read that fangraphs article on Thames. I'm not going to count on it, but if he can come close to those projections then look out!