Brewers sign Eric Thames (3 years)

[istanbultaye]

Did everyone see the video of all his homers? The brewers need to get the #42 to come over just to do HR celebrations with him!

[502 to Right]

I don't get people complaining about the dollars. At $5m AAV, Thames is now the 3rd highest paid Brewer--behind Garza in his final year and Braun soon to be traded. The Brewers aren't hurting for money right now (or at any time in the next 3 years).

[MrTPlush]

Did everyone see the video of all his homers? The brewers need to get the #42 to come over just to do HR celebrations with him!

 

Haha that was some good stuff

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2016/11/29/209853258/brewers-sign-eric-thames-to-three-year-contract?partnerId=as_mlb_20161129_68336856&adbid=1313850015313301&adbpl=fb&adbpr=196554717042842

[reillymcshane]

The average ML 1st baseman had a .790 OPS last year.

 

If Thames can hit an .800 OPS with solid defense, it's a huge win for us.

 

I honestly don't know if he can do it. I'm not a scout and I haven't watched anything of the guy except some HR highlights.

 

From what I've read, the guy has changed a lot in five years - when he first played in the majors. He's more mature, smarter - and looks like he's in better shape.

 

I guess I'll trust the Brewer scouts in the belief that he can successfully translate his game to the majors.

 

I don't really like pulling out old stats from 2012-13 and try and say that's Thames' game. A lot changes in 4-5 years. Physical changes. Mental changes. Technical changes.

 

Without a doubt it's a risk - but as I've said - now is the time to take such risks.

[MKE81]

The reasons to love this move have to do with the best- or even medium-case scenarios, which include ...

 

Having a $20 million slugger for a quarter of the cost, ready for the next good Brewers team

Having a $10 million slugger for half of the cost, ready for a team in search of left-handed power at the trading deadline

Having a $5 million slugger for exactly what he’s worth, which at least makes the team that much more watchable

I think people have been overlooking/not considering outcome B here.

 

I gotta think the Brewers wouldn't have much interest in trading Eric Thames if he turns into a nice little bargain at 1B. I understand he is older, but I wouldn't be overly concerned with a 1B who is in his early 30s. If the Brewers find a starting lefty 1B and proceed to trade him with years of control that would be...erm...pretty interesting. Stearns mentioned him as a building block for the next competitive team and I think he was pretty serious. If he works out he won't be going anywhere.

Of course Stearns said that because there's nothing about this signing that indicates role player. It's a 3yr deal with another option year. But if Thames produces after 2yrs he's being traded for good prospects because that's what Stearns does and that's how you continue to build the pipeline

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't get people complaining about the dollars. At $5m AAV, Thames is now the 3rd highest paid Brewer--behind Garza in his final year and Braun soon to be traded. The Brewers aren't hurting for money right now (or at any time in the next 3 years).

 

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. The twins are in the same position payroll wise that we are. Why don't you ask a twin fan if the $9M they spent on Park was a good investment.

[Patrick425]

Just had a chance to skip through this thread. Wow, very impressive Briggs!

[JohnBriggs12]

Just had a chance to skip through this thread. Wow, very impressive Briggs!

 

Thanks. It's been a while since I hit on a big one. I think the last one was Scotty Po for Carlos Lee deal.

[reillymcshane]

Just had a chance to skip through this thread. Wow, very impressive Briggs!

 

Thanks. It's been a while since I hit on a big one. I think the last one was Scotty Po for Carlos Lee deal.

At that rate, you'll get another big one around 2027. Maybe Bryce Harper to the Brewers....

[JohnBriggs12]

Really impressed with Thames news conference. Great addition and great work by Stearns. Love the fact that Stearns mentioned he was focused on getting a LH presence in the lineup. Many thought that was something to address later on. That indicates they believe the roster is going to be in position to compete, if not in 2017, then sooner than a lot of people think and we'll be less focused on what we can get for our players and more looking for signs they are competing to win.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. .

 

I don't think that's really how it works. I don't think they're putting that in a piggy bank and saying "ok, well we didn't spend it this year, so we'll be able to spend MORE money next year. If they didn't spend it, they didn't spend it. Whatever they don't spend in 2016 is just profit.

[MrTPlush]

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. .

 

I don't think that's really how it works. I don't think they're putting that in a piggy bank and saying "ok, well we didn't spend it this year, so we'll be able to spend MORE money next year. If they didn't spend it, they didn't spend it. Whatever they don't spend in 2016 is just profit.

 

Well it does in some way because Attanasio has mentioned saving money to spend more when they are competing. Though I take that as more of a 2011/2012/2014(or whatever year it was high) when they maxed out payroll and supposably were losing a bit of money. Not a, Hey we saved $150mil the last 5 years, lets go sign an ace!!!" type of thing.

[monty57]

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. .

 

I don't think that's really how it works. I don't think they're putting that in a piggy bank and saying "ok, well we didn't spend it this year, so we'll be able to spend MORE money next year. If they didn't spend it, they didn't spend it. Whatever they don't spend in 2016 is just profit.

 

Which is taxed, so they'll lose around 1/3 to 1/2 of it to Uncle Sam and the rest would likely go out as dividends to the owners. Probably better used to reinvest it into the franchise to keep the fans energized. They've done well in getting the farm back in shape, and now it doesn't hurt to spend a little money to get some potentially exciting players on the MLB roster. I'm excited to see what Thames will bring to the table, and am excited to see what other moves the Brewers have coming this offseason.

 

Really impressed with Thames news conference. Great addition and great work by Stearns. Love the fact that Stearns mentioned he was focused on getting a LH presence in the lineup. Many thought that was something to address later on. That indicates they believe the roster is going to be in position to compete, if not in 2017, then sooner than a lot of people think and we'll be less focused on what we can get for our players and more looking for signs they are competing to win.

 

A lot still depends on what happens with Braun. The 11-25-16 article from MLBTraderumors quoted Stearns as saying that he was not currently working on anything regarding Braun. I still think he'll be traded, but if Braun remains a Brewer, they should have a decent offense this year, and could push a .500 season. Depending on how the pitching prospects progress, they could be eyeing a Wild Card run by 2018. If he's traded, depending on what they got back, it would leave a huge hole in the offense that not many could fill.

[And That]

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. .

 

I don't think that's really how it works. I don't think they're putting that in a piggy bank and saying "ok, well we didn't spend it this year, so we'll be able to spend MORE money next year. If they didn't spend it, they didn't spend it. Whatever they don't spend in 2016 is just profit.

Yep.

 

Really simplistic example, but say they had $100 million in revenue and $66 million in expenses, that would be $34 million in net cash operating income, and assuming a tax rate of about 30%, that income generates $10 million in taxes, meaning net cash income is $24 million.

 

If they spent $16 million less and still had $100 million in revenue, they would have $50 million in net cash operating income. Still assuming tax rate of 30%, that means $15 million in taxes, which drops net cash income to $35 million.

 

So again, really simplistic example that doesn't take in account any number of factors, but not spending the $16 million lead to a savings of just $11 million. Which is still $11 million, but the point being that there are real $$ tax consequences for reducing expenses at a constant level of revenue.

 

One of the only ways it makes business sense to drop expenses below what you can sustain is if you have a lot of previous taxable losses that you can still use to cancel out current income. Which the Brewers' organization may or may not have at this point.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think it's as simple as them putting money in some sort of savings account but that doesn't mean using less money on payroll now doesn't effect how much they can use later. My guess is extra money goes to debt service. If they have less debt they pay less interest on that debt. Any money paid to the interest on a loan is completely wasted so the less of it they have the more productive that money can be. If, for example, you double your first house payment and then pay only the minimum after that you take years and thousands of dollars off the total cost of the house. The more and faster you pay it off the less overall you pay for the exact same thing. Same here. The less money that has to go to debt service in future years the more money is freed up to use elsewhere.

The other option is to use the money saved in other profit making endeavors that provide more revenue later. If Mark A. uses that money on something outside of baseball that doesn't mean that money made cannot then be used for baseball related things.

Tax wise I am don't know what that level of finance is like but it isn't as simple as deducting the taxes paid and saying you have less. You would have to deduct the taxes paid then add in the saving from the things I outlined above and see if it is more or less. It gets even more complicated if they had losses in past years that can be carried over so he may very well not be paying any taxes on that at all. The upshot is we have no idea what taxes are being paid and if those taxes would be higher than the money saved or raised via less interest on debt or profits made on investments made using that money saved.

[Invader3K]

This reminds me a lot of when Melvin took a flyer on Aoki. We have a player who had been productive in a foreign league, signed to a relatively cheap contract (by MLB standards). This is a guy who should be able to contribute in 2017 and could be traded down the line if he does well.

[CheezWizHed]

Aoki is a good comparison. The trade for Villar reminds me of this a little also (mainly from the compliments/comments/complaints from the thread). Of course, both of those are people that worked out for the positive.

 

Some of these lottery tickets will turn out bad, some good. The point is that now is the time to try them. Talent procurement by any means possible. If we are going for the WS next year, this probably isn't the best method to get a 1B. But we are trying to fill holes in the roster with guys that have some upside possibilities. And its no great loss if this is a miss.

[patrickgpe]

Aoki is a good comparison.

Aoki was seen as a backup going into spring training and had no MLB experience. I cant see the brewers looking to platoon Thames right now.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't get people complaining about the dollars. At $5m AAV, Thames is now the 3rd highest paid Brewer--behind Garza in his final year and Braun soon to be traded. The Brewers aren't hurting for money right now (or at any time in the next 3 years).

 

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. The twins are in the same position payroll wise that we are. Why don't you ask a twin fan if the $9M they spent on Park was a good investment.

 

The Twins just missed the playoffs in 2015 and, outside of a half season of Sano, no power hitters. I suppose they could have spent that $9M on a below average starting pitcher like Mike Pelfrey instead.

[FVBrewerFan]

These moves don't take place in a vacuum either. When I first heard about the signing, my initial reaction was "I rather see Santana or Braun play there." But for all we know, Stearns could be confident Braun will be traded. Or, he is planning on trading Santana. Maybe both.

 

Plus, we don't know if Braun has any interest in playing 1B. And maybe they just don't see Santana playing there. He's tall, great, but it just may be an experiment the Brewers don't want to try for various reasons.

 

So, really, if Braun/Santana are not options there, I like the move a lot more. You have a guy who MAY be able to play FT at 1B. Or he can play some 1B, play some corner OF while they wait on Brinson and others. Point being, with Stearns there's always more moves to come.

 

It should also put to rest this notion of tanking. If they were tanking, they would just throw Cooper over there.

[MrTPlush]

And maybe they just don't see Santana playing there. He's tall, great, but it just may be an experiment the Brewers don't want to try for various reasons.

 

People would love to see Santana at 1B, but honestly I think he would be pretty bad. He is a very awkward fielder and I can't imagine that playing well in the infield. Honestly watching him makes me think of Khris Davis. Probably a guy who can only catch flyballs.

[1992casey]

My guess is extra money goes to debt service.

 

In an in-game interview this past season, Mark indicated that the team would likely look at paying down some debt. Also, it would seem that this is a good time to spend the money that's going into the concession renovation.

[paul253]

I haven't gone through the thread yet so sorry if I'm repeating old arguments. But honestly I don't understand the excitement over this signing. Thames comes across to me as a AAAA type player. Great numbers in the minors. Better numbers in Korea. But horrible numbers in close to 700 at bats in the majors. I just can't get excited over numbers from Korea, especially from someone who was a bust in the Majors 5 years ago. Plus he'll be 31 midway through next year. People tend to start their drop off around that age. I wasn't overly excited when I assumed it was a Ken year deal. But three years? This move reeks of desperation to me. Desperation to find a left handed power hitter and desperation to fill first base. I'd have much preferred they just moved either Braun or Santana to first to help alleviate the glut of outfielders we'll be dealing with in the next year or two. I don't understand the refusal to try out guys like Santana or even Coulter at first base.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't get people complaining about the dollars. At $5m AAV, Thames is now the 3rd highest paid Brewer--behind Garza in his final year and Braun soon to be traded. The Brewers aren't hurting for money right now (or at any time in the next 3 years).

 

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. The twins are in the same position payroll wise that we are. Why don't you ask a twin fan if the $9M they spent on Park was a good investment.

 

The Twins just missed the playoffs in 2015 and, outside of a half season of Sano, no power hitters. I suppose they could have spent that $9M on a below average starting pitcher like Mike Pelfrey instead.

 

Or they could have paid Chris Carter $3M and used $6M for relief pitching or anything else useful.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Not sure I buy that logic. $16M is $16M. It's not like if we don't spend that $16M we lose it. Mark A can save it and spend it some other year. .

 

I don't think that's really how it works. I don't think they're putting that in a piggy bank and saying "ok, well we didn't spend it this year, so we'll be able to spend MORE money next year. If they didn't spend it, they didn't spend it. Whatever they don't spend in 2016 is just profit.

 

Which is taxed, so they'll lose around 1/3 to 1/2 of it to Uncle Sam and the rest would likely go out as dividends to the owners. Probably better used to reinvest it into the franchise to keep the fans energized. They've done well in getting the farm back in shape, and now it doesn't hurt to spend a little money to get some potentially exciting players on the MLB roster. I'm excited to see what Thames will bring to the table, and am excited to see what other moves the Brewers have coming this offseason.

 

1/2 to uncle Sam? The max corp tax rate is 35%.

 

How many extra season tickets do you think they sold today because of the Thames signing? I'm thinking of a number less than 1.