Brewers sign Eric Thames (3 years)

[brewcrewdue80]

Consider this Milw's attempt at a Jose Abreu. Who's tallied 12WAR in 3seasons. .875OPS career for that great WAR return. Yes every one of his numbers dropped from what he did in the Cuban League. Still came away very productive as one of the best 1b bats in baseball.

Abreu signed for an avg of 11.33mil a season.

 

This is 15mil on 3 seasons. Can you imagine the impact potential if we get just Abreu's production in 2016? .820 OPS Not even a positive Def WAR but yet worth 2.8BWAR?

 

That right there would fill off the cost involved. I'm not going to predict him being a SB threat. I see that he a monster year in 2015, but really the 11 and 13 the opposite two seasons would seem to fit in with what he'd done in his past. Still, if he can produce 10SBs guess who's that kind of 1b threat? Eric Hosmer. Who's career high is .822 OPS. 6 seasons Hosmer has produced 10.1BWAR with career .763OPS. Let's just put it out there Hosmer made 8.25million this season. And he'll make more in 2017, even though for his numbers, he's not really worth much more.

 

We've managed to nab a guy who's a cross of these two both in stats within KBO. He won't make half of Abreu's salary, and likely even half of Hosmer's salary for 2017.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think what really matters here is you know EXACTLY what Carter is, and what he can give you, and frankly, it's not much. 40 homers and 220 strikeouts, bad defense, and a 1.0 WAR.

 

When you're rebuilding..... when the wins don't matter, take a chance on a guy like Thames. I don't think he's going to light the world on fire. I don't think he's an .850 OPS guy or whatever, but If he catches lightning in a bottle, great! He can either play and contribute, or be a trade piece sometime soon.

 

Carter wasn't going to do either of those things, and we already knew that. That's why this happened.

[MrTPlush]

Consider this Milw's attempt at a Jose Abreu.

 

You lost me.

 

This is nothing more than trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Jose Abreu has talent...and a lot of it. That is why he was paid $50mil+ mil.

 

I am guessing Stearns saw the barren wasteland in the minors and likes Thames as a guy who can be average at 1B. Even average 1B get really pricey so if Thames can be that guy we save a nice chunk of money. I don't think Stearns envisions Thames as a high ceiling guy, but more of a role player or to atleast fill a black hole with something.

[rickh150]

Consider this Milw's attempt at a Jose Abreu.

 

You lost me.

 

This is nothing more than trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Jose Abreu has talent...and a lot of it. That is why he was paid $50mil+ mil.

 

I am guessing Stearns saw the barren wasteland in the minors and likes Thames as a guy who can be average at 1B. Even average 1B get really pricey so if Thames can be that guy we save a nice chunk of money. I don't think Stearns envisions Thames as a high ceiling guy, but more of a role player or to atleast fill a black hole with something.

 

 

Stearns views him more than a role player. He's penciled in as the first baseman for the next three plus years.

I agree with you in that this situation cannot be compared to Abreu's signing. The money isn't even close.

[MrTPlush]

Consider this Milw's attempt at a Jose Abreu.

 

You lost me.

 

This is nothing more than trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Jose Abreu has talent...and a lot of it. That is why he was paid $50mil+ mil.

 

I am guessing Stearns saw the barren wasteland in the minors and likes Thames as a guy who can be average at 1B. Even average 1B get really pricey so if Thames can be that guy we save a nice chunk of money. I don't think Stearns envisions Thames as a high ceiling guy, but more of a role player or to atleast fill a black hole with something.

 

 

Stearns views him more than a role player. He's penciled in as the first baseman for the next three plus years.

 

Because there flat out isn't any other option right now. Not to mention the money is so minimal they could release him without shedding a tear pretty fast.

[tmwiese55]

I think what really matters here is you know EXACTLY what Carter is, and what he can give you, and frankly, it's not much. 40 homers and 220 strikeouts, bad defense, and a 1.0 WAR.

 

When you're rebuilding..... when the wins don't matter, take a chance on a guy like Thames. I don't think he's going to light the world on fire. I don't think he's an .850 OPS guy or whatever, but If he catches lightning in a bottle, great! He can either play and contribute, or be a trade piece sometime soon.

 

Carter wasn't going to do either of those things, and we already knew that. That's why this happened.

 

I think this nails their thinking. Carter is what he is, and that's not a bad guy to have during rebuild as he's entertaining and competent. But he's not all of a sudden going to improve in any real way. They figure worst case is similar value and best case that he is way better (lightning in a bottle) and while you get to win some extra games and enjoy that, you can also trade him next year for something of real value. Chances are you're never getting anything more than a fringe prospect back on Carter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Will the bleachers long the RF line be re-named "Thames River?"

[brewcrewdue80]

Consider this Milw's attempt at a Jose Abreu.

 

You lost me.

 

This is nothing more than trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Jose Abreu has talent...and a lot of it. That is why he was paid $50mil+ mil.

 

I am guessing Stearns saw the barren wasteland in the minors and likes Thames as a guy who can be average at 1B. Even average 1B get really pricey so if Thames can be that guy we save a nice chunk of money. I don't think Stearns envisions Thames as a high ceiling guy, butmore of a role player or to atleast fill a black hole with something.

 

Wow, i lost you?

 

How does playing in the Cuban League make Abreu a 1b talent? But numbers by Thames in the KBO as good as Abreu posted (sans the walks) equate to lack pf talent? I suppose. If Milwaukee paid him 3/34 where do your feelings go in Abreu comp? Theyd have matched the dollar total then so he has equal talent as Abreu from the Cuban League? Cuban and International signees in South America are getting big dollars for production from their Leagues. Is Hector Olivera a bigger talent than Thames? Money suggests so.

Mentioned in Rumors Kenta Maeda. 8yrs 25mil by Dodgers. He must not be much a talent...Oh wait the year he had in 2016 for the Dodgers is already worth the 25mil cost.

 

As been mentioned, one thing Thames possesses that these other international signings didnt? Having gone through a MLB system, and already games in MLB experience.

 

If Thames produces just 2/3rds to his Korean numbers hes outplaying his pay. As shown with Jung Ho Kang. A 33% drop did not happen. Thames comes with better batting numbers.

Like I said, Stearns way of signing his own Jose Abreu, who plays 1b, what Thames will play. Who came with Video game Numbers in a foreign league, True on both. One just happened to sign for half the years and money per, vs the other. Who was 3years younger at the time.

[MKE81]

Plush, there were around 8 other FA 1b where a case can be made they're an automatic upgrade over Carter on both sides of the ball outside of power that are also a similar price tag as Thames (or cheaper than Carter still). There's for sure minor league options as well but that's a different story as it's more complex to acquire that person. If Stearns didn't think Thames was an automatic upgrade to Carter on both sides (minus HR) then he wouldn't have given him 3/15. Thames most likely barely sees any OF action next season and won't see any OF action beyond 2017 as we'll have Brinson, Cordell too. Given he's the only 1b on the 40 at this point I'm guessing he's not a role player but will be the regular 1b moving forward. Depending how he performs over the first couple years he could turn into a role player (backup 1b, 5th OF, lefty pinch hitter with pop) that final year but I don't believe that was the purpose of the signing. He upgrades the 1b spot on both sides, gives Counsell more balance since he's a lefty and has a cost effective price tag. I'm sure they have a pretty good idea of what type of production he's going to put out there at the MLB level given where he was 3yrs ago in AAA and where he's at as a player right now, even if the competition has only been high AA/low AAA.

 

Additionally, there isn't an endless pipeline of guys who put up Pujols numbers in Korea. OVer the past 3yrs there have been 6-7 players who have hit over 27-28HR each season. The batting averages are higher there that's for sure and it's due to the talent level not being as deep, like you said. But there's definitely some strong talent over there that can be successful in MLB.

[reillymcshane]

It probably lessens (but doesn't eliminate) the chance Brewers will go out and sign Valbuena so if they trade Gennett, Perez would be in line to play 3B, or if they keep Gennett, Villar will start the year there.

I could still see a Valbeuna signing - with Scooter being dealt.

 

I think the club really likes Perez's versatility. He can pretty much handle anywhere but catcher, and he certainly would start against lefties at 3B.

 

Valbuena, Thames and Villar would all have 15-20 HR potential. That's not awesome, but it does offer a little more left handed pop than we've had in a while.

[trwi7]

Mentioned in Rumors Kenta Maeda. 8yrs 25mil by Dodgers. He must not be much a talent...Oh wait the year he had in 2016 for the Dodgers is already worth the 25mil cost.

 

Maeda has incentives in his contract that can push it over $100 million.

 

This talk of Thames being an .850 OPS guy is crazy to me. What has he done other than destroy the hitter friendly KBO, a league he was only in because he couldn't hack it in MLB to make anyone think he could produce anywhere near that much? If he posts a .750 OPS, you should be ecstatic.

[MrTPlush]

It's called scouting, watching how a player plays the game, and just flat out athletic ability. Thames couldn't hold Abreu's bat even if he wanted to. It means nothing where they played. Korea, Cuba, Antarctica...doesn't matter. Abreu got paid because he had an incredible ceiling/tools. Not really because he played in Cuba vs. Korea.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

If he plays anything close to his ZiPS projection... Man that's a whole lot of surplus value. Low risk, good reward. Won't call it a genius move, but that LH power will play in our line up.

[And That]

If he posts a .750 OPS, you should be ecstatic.

Why? 750 is about where I think he'll end up, maybe on the low side depending on how his plate discipline shakes out. ZIPS has him at 814. His MLE in the KBO last year was around 860. This is not an untalented guy.

 

Personally, I'd be ecstatic about anything over 850, pleasantly surprised between 825-850, unsurprised between 725-825, and disappointed under 725.

 

Though even 725 with competent defense probably makes him worth more than Carter, and makes him worth much more than his $4 mil salary. Travis Shaw's 2016 season would just about be my baseline, I guess.

[homer]

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/11/29/13776262/brewers-eric-thames-chris-carter-dingers

 

Key point from that article (which is really well done):

 

The reasons to love this move have to do with the best- or even medium-case scenarios, which include ...

 

Having a $20 million slugger for a quarter of the cost, ready for the next good Brewers team

Having a $10 million slugger for half of the cost, ready for a team in search of left-handed power at the trading deadline

Having a $5 million slugger for exactly what he’s worth, which at least makes the team that much more watchable

[splitterpfj]

I was definitely surprised when I heard the news, but I don't see a reason for the team not to try this. It's gutsy, for sure, but in a small market, this is the chance you take, while the guy in Boston or Chicago risks the 200 million dollar contract.

 

A friend of mine texted his "Major League" impression ..... "This guy's dead. Well, cross him off.", when he heard Thames was returning to the states.

[jerichoholicninja]

Made the mistake of reading the comments on the article posted on the Brewers Facebook page. Just the dumbest most uninformed stuff you can imagine.

[RockCoCougars]

I hate this deal. They had to give a 4A player a three year deal, really? I guess that Thames will just be the latest of the long list of guys to flame out in MLB, head East to crush a subpar league, then come back to star here. That pipeline includes Cecil Fielder and....? It's not like he's young either. I hope to God that Carter had incredibly unrealistic salary demands, because this guy just screams Mouton to me.

[AdvantageSchneider]

When I heard about the deal I was upset, after reading about it a little more I'm in the meh category. I'm just thinking we have a surplus of OF prospects, why can't we turn one of those guys into a 1B? Domingo is 6'5". Even if they trade Braun that still leaves them with Broxton, Brinson and potentially Phillips if they move Santana to first. I'd rather see young guys play than 30 year old retreads.

 

Someone ran Thames' numbers against Kang. I didn't see anyone run Byung Ho Park's numbers. Here there are.

 

YearAge AgeDif Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB

2013 26 -2.5 Nexen KBO Fgn 128 556 450 91 143 17 0 37 117 10 2 92 96 0.318 0.437 0.602 1.039 271

2014 27 -1.9 Nexen KBO Fgn 128 571 459 126 139 16 2 52 124 8 3 96 142 0.303 0.433 0.686 1.119 315

2015 28 -0.5 Nexen KBO Fgn 140 622 528 129 181 35 1 53 146 10 3 78 161 0.343 0.436 0.714 1.15 377

 

(sorry I can't get the table to format properly, but he had a couple of 50+HR seasons, generally Pujolos type numbers and he couldn't hit AAA pitching his first year in Minnesota.)

Twins signed Park for about $3M a season with a team option 4th year at $6.5M or a $500k buyout, so it would appear that Thames agent earned his commission.

 

My take would be that if the Brewers get positive value out of this deal we can start building Stearns a statute in front of Miller Park. Also, at least the deal is only for $16M and not $42M.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I hate this deal. They had to give a 4A player a three year deal, really? I guess that Thames will just be the latest of the long list of guys to flame out in MLB, head East to crush a subpar league, then come back to star here. That pipeline includes Cecil Fielder and....? .

 

Julio Franco?

[NievesNoNO]

I like the creativity. Wasn't it about this time last year they signed Guerra, who turned out to arguably be the team's best pitcher last season? There's nothing really lost at 5 m/year. Maybe he ends up being a 1-2 win player and that's enough to justify the risk.

 

There might be something to having had to immerse himself in a different culture and think differently and be coached differently. Maybe he really has figured out something since he left that can translate.

 

If Justin Turner can morph himself into a power hitting third baseman from a fringe utility infielder in two years then I believe anything is possible.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like the signing. Yeah its a three year deal, but not that much money. If he pans out, its a steal, if he stinks, not losing too much.

[DHonks]

I like this creativity as well. The indications from writers is that the Brewers anticipated Carter's arbitration price tag going to as much as $11-12 million. I understand why they made this move, although I hope the new CBA doesn't magically do away with pitchers hitting

[LouisEly]

The reasons to love this move have to do with the best- or even medium-case scenarios, which include ...

 

Having a $20 million slugger for a quarter of the cost, ready for the next good Brewers team

Having a $10 million slugger for half of the cost, ready for a team in search of left-handed power at the trading deadline

Having a $5 million slugger for exactly what he’s worth, which at least makes the team that much more watchable

I think people have been overlooking/not considering outcome B here. LH power bats are always in demand at the trade deadline, and can bring back a nice prospect (39-year-old Carlos Beltran and his $15M pro-rated salary was able to fetch Dillon Tate, 34-year-old Ben Zobrist was able to net Sean Manaea; not perfect comps, but in the ballpark).

 

Really like the move - relatively low-risk, with good upside. $5M/year, for this team at this time, is nothing. Anyone who is unlikely to "piss away" $15M on will likely command much more than $15M. Sounds like he has a strong work ethic and is a good clubhouse guy. Plenty of examples of guys who didn't figure it out until late 20's (Nelson Cruz immediately comes to mind, David Ortiz made a big jump at 27). No one thinks he will do what he did in Korea, but Kang and Hyun Soo Kim have shown that Korean stars can put up good numbers here.

 

Carter had a nice year last year, but it was a career year (of his four full seasons). Considering that Villar (.369 OBP), Braun (.365 OBP), and Lucroy (.359 OBP) were usually batting ahead of him, he should have had more than 94 RBI for 41 HRs. Carter is what he is; there is a decent chance that Thames can give them as much for half the salary, possibly more.

[MrTPlush]

The reasons to love this move have to do with the best- or even medium-case scenarios, which include ...

 

Having a $20 million slugger for a quarter of the cost, ready for the next good Brewers team

Having a $10 million slugger for half of the cost, ready for a team in search of left-handed power at the trading deadline

Having a $5 million slugger for exactly what he’s worth, which at least makes the team that much more watchable

I think people have been overlooking/not considering outcome B here.

 

I gotta think the Brewers wouldn't have much interest in trading Eric Thames if he turns into a nice little bargain at 1B. I understand he is older, but I wouldn't be overly concerned with a 1B who is in his early 30s. If the Brewers find a starting lefty 1B and proceed to trade him with years of control that would be...erm...pretty interesting. Stearns mentioned him as a building block for the next competitive team and I think he was pretty serious. If he works out he won't be going anywhere.