Brewers sign Eric Thames (3 years)

[Bombers]

My only question is, how has his bat flip improved from playing in Korea? I hope it is epic -

 

I do like this move. We can all agree that Carter isn't the answer. While it was fun to watch him knock out 41 dingers, it will be nice to see someone who might have an OBP of above 300. All in all, I like the move and am all for taking top players from other leagues. Success breed's confidence and confidence is a key ingredient to success. I would expect him to have a lot of confidence and hopefully translate that into success at the MLB level.

[And That]

While it was fun to watch him knock out 41 dingers, it will be nice to see someone who might have an OBP of above 300.

Carter's OBP was .321 last year. MLB average OBP was .322.

[pacopete4]

I enjoy this signing partially because Briggs gets pooped on a lot on this forum. Nice to see him hit the mark on this one. [sarcasm]Maybe now we can move on from the Khris Davis banter?!?[/sarcasm]

[MKE81]

These projections seem to me to be wildly optimistic. Career in MLB: 21 HRs in 633 at bats. OBP=.296. Career OPS=.727---Scooter Gennett .738. Maybe he's better now but I doubt it.

 

Thurston Fluff said:

I think 260/340/810 is closer to his ceiling than his floor.

 

He's bigger and stronger with a shorter and more compact swing now compared to 2013. He's quicker to the ball with more whip. Also changed his stance (feet/base) and hand positioning. He looks much better now compared to when he was 24/25yrs old in MLB

 

To say that is his floor is really a stretch. Though he could very well be better, to say that is the lowest level of performance he can reach is pretty hard to justify. His floor is more like replacement level than a roughly league average major league player. His ceiling is far closer to major league average than his floor.

I hear what you're saying. I also understand what "floor" means. His MLB numbers in 181 games at 24/25yrs old (4yrs younger for level) are 250/296/727. His AAA numbers (1-3yrs young) in 200 games were 312/389/894. He destroyed Korea.

 

He had around 930 total minor league ABs prior to first MLB stint where he slashed 262/313/769. He was traded twice within the next year so that can have an impact as well. Since then he's significantly increased his strength, changed his stance/hands into a more powerful compact swing and has made drastic improvements to his BB/K ratio. He's matured physically and as a player/person. So, when you combine all of that I absolutely don't think my 260/340/810 line is unrealistic for his floor, especially considering his AAA and Korean performance.

 

People are stuck on what he did in a small sample size in MLB as a 24/25yr old vs looking at the big picture.

[markedman5]

http://www.sbnation.com/2016/11/29/13776262/brewers-eric-thames-chris-carter-dingers

[sheetskout]

Love this move as I had started the Thames thread.

 

He's a LH hitter with pop, something Brewers desperately needed. If you believe the Brewers have a chance to step up as soon as 2018, this kind of move makes a ton of sense. Somewhat of a risk but one worth taking. If he's a semblance of the player he was in Korea, they have added a solid all around bat that will take walks and not strike out 200 times. I assume he can play 1B? If so, he's not blocking any prospects. Certainly explains the non-tender decision on Carter.

 

I can see .275/.350/.475 type of a line, with 25-30 HR.

 

Very well said & I agree wholeheartedly

 

The lefty power bat is huge, hard to fine, and should not be underestimated. Fits in the Stearns mode of athletic versatilty much better than the one dimensional Carter, too

Yes and yes. We were so lefty-deficient it was causing issues. This will help in the way opposing pitchers will have to approach our lineup late in games - especially in that it's likely he hits behind Braun.

[trwi7]

This is a ridiculous deal for a ridiculous length of time.

[sveumrules]

They're paying him for less than 1 WAR each year. The total outlay is 16 million over three years which won't hinder any future moves with our payroll situation even if Thames never plays a game. There is virtually no downside to this contract.

[trwi7]

Interesting stipulations on the deal. Thames agrees to be optioned or outrighted at any time.

 

That's not what this says

 

[trwi7]

There is virtually no downside to this contract.

 

Other than the possibility of pissing away $16 million. Other than that, I agree. No downside.

[Point Beer Is Best]

He may flop, but I can't really get upset about spending basically the same amount of money as a Qualifying Offer but spread out over a 3 year period. Hard to think they could find someone with the same amount of potential at $5M per year, and that amount of salary isn't material enough to hinder any other potential moves.

[trwi7]

Hard to think they could find someone with the same amount of potential at $5M per year

 

They literally just got rid of Josmil Pinto who would be making the minimum for the next few years and is only 27.

[sveumrules]

If Thames tears his ACL this spring & never plays the Brewers will have 4 million in dead payroll in 2017, 5 million in dead payroll in 2018, 6 million in dead payroll in 2019 and 1 million in dead payroll in 2020. I don't see those amounts hindering any other moves given our current & likely future payroll situation.

 

All Thames has to do to provide even value on the contract is produce about 2 WAR, anything over that is gravy. For me the potential upside far outweighs the potential risk, which won't even act as a significant hindrance should it come to fruition.

[MKE81]

Hard to think they could find someone with the same amount of potential at $5M per year

 

They literally just got rid of Josmil Pinto who would be making the minimum for the next few years and is only 27.

You must have skipped over that key word "potential". Pinto's doesn't mirror Thames'

[Thurston Fluff]

I hear what you're saying. I also understand what "floor" means. His MLB numbers in 181 games at 24/25yrs old (4yrs younger for level) are 250/296/727. His AAA numbers (1-3yrs young) in 200 games were 312/389/894. He destroyed Korea.

 

He had around 930 total minor league ABs prior to first MLB stint where he slashed 262/313/769. He was traded twice within the next year so that can have an impact as well. Since then he's significantly increased his strength, changed his stance/hands into a more powerful compact swing and has made drastic improvements to his BB/K ratio. He's matured physically and as a player/person. So, when you combine all of that I absolutely don't think my 260/340/810 line is unrealistic for his floor, especially considering his AAA and Korean performance.

 

People are stuck on what he did in a small sample size in MLB as a 24/25yr old vs looking at the big picture.

 

I am not stuck on what he did five or six years ago. I am stuck on the idea that you think the minimum we can expect out of him- as a 30 year old with little experience in the majors, and hasn't played in a league above AAA level for three years- is league average production. That is just way too optimistic a view of what the minimum can be. I love the enthusiasm. He could do that or better so I am not dissing him. But at some point reality has to play a part. He could really be a lot worse than league average. His floor is much lower than that. If that was his ceiling and he reached it I would be very happy with the deal.

[Oldcity]

This is a ridiculous deal for a ridiculous length of time.

Stunning that someone could feel this strongly either way about this.

 

I'm assuming the length is what got him out of Korea. If he ends up a league average first baseman, it's a home run. If he doesn't, they've lost the salary to pay a 4th reliever or something. The key part is they gave up nothing but money to get him.

 

I don't love it either, but I like it a lot more than paying a 1< WAR first baseman $10 million this year. That's lighting money on fire a lot more than this is.

[rickh150]

Like the deal....

 

Brewers have to think out of the box, and this is one way to do it. We can't outspend people, can't recruit major free agents or top international free agents (now), and can't hoard great minor leaguers (40 man roster). The deck is stacked against us so why not spend minimal $ when payroll is down to get a diamond (or glass stone) for a manageable period of time. It possibly fills a Fielder-sized gap at 1B and doesn't affect in one bit the other plans the front office has. Plus, Brewers still have an opportunity to get something, anything for Carter. I'll be surprised if we can't get something for him in the next few days. I could see Carter packaged with Thornburg for a top 100 prospect.

 

I know that his stats are not MLB stats, but.........his average, OBP are really impressive with the power. If other of our top prospect/ AA or AAA players had a fraction of his stats, we'd be singing their praises.

 

Also, how do you pronounce his name?

[CheeseheadInQC]

They literally just got rid of Josmil Pinto who would be making the minimum for the next few years and is only 27.

 

Pinto's stats last season might very well be a mirage. He hit everything at Colorado Springs and nothing anywhere else. Even someone like Wren who had notable splits was decent on the road and there were parts of his offensive line that translated both home and road. With Pinto, everything was worse, in many cases much worse. There aren't too many ways to sugarcoat a sub-.600 road OPS. I know his stats from a few years ago still give hope, but there's a decent case to be made he is Will Middlebrooks with a slightly better walk rate.

 

This seems like a very Stearns move. Thames has got more risk than some of the middle- to lower-tier free agents out there at the position, but unlike most of them there's a chance he's better than mediocre.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jung Ho Kang's last 3 seasons in Korea:

 

2012: .314/.413/.560 .973 25 HR

 

2013: .291/.387/.489 .876 22 HR

 

2014: .356/.459/.739 1.198 40 HR

 

Thames last 3 years in Korea:

 

2014: .343/.422/.688 1.111 37 HR

 

2015: .381/.497/.790 1.288 47 HR

 

2016: .317/.425/.676 1.101 40 HR

 

Kang's put up solid major league numbers (.838 OPS), while adjusting to an entirely new culture. Why is it being over optimistic to think Thames can't match what Kang has done and maybe a bit more?

 

Sure the Brewers could have brought back Adam Lind or signed a Brandon Moss or maybe even a Justin Morneau for a year, but they took a shot at a guy who at this stage might be better than those guys and be around a while and I applaud them for it.

[MrTPlush]

You can't compare numbers like that. Not everyone translates so perfectly.

[danzig6767]

You can't compare numbers like that. Not everyone translates so perfectly.

That's the rub with signings like this for players from say Japan or Korea. Scouting matters. We'll see if the Brewers scouting of Thames was correct and he can be a productive MLB hitter. None of us know whether that will happen.

 

It sure will be interesting to see how Thames does. Given the Brewers payroll flexibility with so many lower pay players on the team now and likely going forward, i'm perfectly fine with Stearns rolling the dice on 3yr/15 million. It's not a payroll killer if he doesn't produce as Stearns and company hoped for.

[MKE81]

I hear what you're saying. I also understand what "floor" means. His MLB numbers in 181 games at 24/25yrs old (4yrs younger for level) are 250/296/727. His AAA numbers (1-3yrs young) in 200 games were 312/389/894. He destroyed Korea.

 

He had around 930 total minor league ABs prior to first MLB stint where he slashed 262/313/769. He was traded twice within the next year so that can have an impact as well. Since then he's significantly increased his strength, changed his stance/hands into a more powerful compact swing and has made drastic improvements to his BB/K ratio. He's matured physically and as a player/person. So, when you combine all of that I absolutely don't think my 260/340/810 line is unrealistic for his floor, especially considering his AAA and Korean performance.

 

People are stuck on what he did in a small sample size in MLB as a 24/25yr old vs looking at the big picture.

 

I am not stuck on what he did five or six years ago. I am stuck on the idea that you think the minimum we can expect out of him- as a 30 year old with little experience in the majors, and hasn't played in a league above AAA level for three years- is league average production. That is just way too optimistic a view of what the minimum can be. I love the enthusiasm. He could do that or better so I am not dissing him. But at some point reality has to play a part. He could really be a lot worse than league average. His floor is much lower than that. If that was his ceiling and he reached it I would be very happy with the deal.

Like I said, I understand where you're coming from but I just don't see it that way. I don't think his age is a negative especially given the shape he's in. Him already having MLB experience while not requiring a cultural adjustment should be seen as positives. KBO is still competitive ball. Even with sizeable drops in numbers across the board he's still league average at minimum and an upgrade over Carter since he can play better defense and will be better on the bases as well.

[Jenkins5]

I'm a big fan of this move. One we really don't loss anything. 4-6 million a year is not a hurtful number over the next 3 years considering Carter would have cost us 16-20 million over the next two. Thames crushed his way through the minors in 2 1/2 years and had a really solid first stint at 24. After that he just could not do enough to lock down a consistent roster spot and at bats. He was actually in a very similar spot Nelson Cruz was in at the same age. Also a very similar type player. Age 27 Cruz put it all together and never looked back with the Rangers and Thames went to Korea at age 27 and took off.

 

He is not going to hit .400 with 1.100+ OPS. He most likely will not hit 40-50 HRs while stealing 30-40 bases. But I do think he has a good chance to put up solid numbers. I know most of the damage was done in Las Vegas but in 870 plate appearances he slashed .312/.389/.506 with a .894 OPS. His K/BB was 178/89 and most impressive is he drilled 60 doubles 9 triples 23 home runs while driving in 123. Regardless of the park he was consistently good during three on and off AAA seasons.

 

I say if he can hit .260/.335/.465 --.800 OPS with 30-40 doubles 15-20 HRs and manage to drive in 70+ runs with solid defense. This was a great get. Maybe he hits .300/.370/.500 with .870 OPS 35 HRs...... maybe he hits .230/.280/.420 with 15 HRs Well worth trying to see what kind of MLB hitter he is.

[MrTPlush]

You can't compare numbers like that. Not everyone translates so perfectly.

That's the rub with signings like this for players from say Japan or Korea. Scouting matters. We'll see if the Brewers scouting of Thames was correct and he can be a productive MLB hitter. None of us know whether that will happen.

 

Yup it is all about scouting. Any stats are 100% meaningless. Some people are comparing the Korean league to AAA and in my opinion that is being pretty generous. A lot of the guys in the Korean league are throwing 85mph fastballs. They don't have the pitching depth the MLB has and it is easy to pad up different stats facing subpar talent. There are an endless amount of players that look like Albert Pujols in the Korean/Japanese leagues and can't hit the broad side of a barn in the MLB.

 

I like the move and find it very intriguing we just gave a guy 3/$16mil who didn't do well in his short time in his MLB stay, hasn't been stateside for nearly half a decade, and is 30 years old. Honestly I can't believe such a situation just happened.

[pitchleague]

I had not known Thames was in Korea, nor that he had done so well over there. I knew that he used to play in the big leagues and was an "okay" 5th outfielder type. Maybe we'll get lucky and he'll have one of those Cecil Fielder resurgences like back in 1990 or so.