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Chris Carter designated for assignment


markedman5
Brewer Fanatic Contributor
If he is traded, I'm guessing an AL team that needs a DH/1B is the destination.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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I posted this in the Thames thread:

 

.263/.327/.468 - 108 OPS+ - 30 HR/93 RBI

.222/.321/.499 - 114 OPS+ - 41 HR/94 RBI

 

One of these players just signed a multi-year free agent deal to DH/play 1B with a playoff team. The other is Chris Carter. I understand he is one dimensional but teams pay for what he does best.

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Can someone explain to me why a team would trade for him now? He wasn't tendered, which presumably means he isn't under control for next season, which essentially makes him a free agent, does it not? Just trying to understand why a trading club would have any more right to sign him over any other team.
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Can someone explain to me why a team would trade for him now? He wasn't tendered, which presumably means he isn't under control for next season, which essentially makes him a free agent, does it not? Just trying to understand why a trading club would have any more right to sign him over any other team.

 

He was DFA'd not non-tendered meaning if he's traded that team has exclusive rights to negotiate with him until he signs or that team non-tenders him.

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Can someone explain to me why a team would trade for him now? He wasn't tendered, which presumably means he isn't under control for next season, which essentially makes him a free agent, does it not? Just trying to understand why a trading club would have any more right to sign him over any other team.

 

He was DFA'd not non-tendered meaning if he's traded that team has exclusive rights to negotiate with him until he signs or that team non-tenders him.

 

I thought he was first non-tendered, then DFA'ed. That is the thread title anyway, that he was non-tendered. :)

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Can someone explain to me why a team would trade for him now? He wasn't tendered, which presumably means he isn't under control for next season, which essentially makes him a free agent, does it not? Just trying to understand why a trading club would have any more right to sign him over any other team.

 

He was DFA'd not non-tendered meaning if he's traded that team has exclusive rights to negotiate with him until he signs or that team non-tenders him.

 

I thought he was first non-tendered, then DFA'ed. That is the thread title anyway, that he was non-tendered. :)

 

It was reported that he was non-tendered then changed to DFA after. I'm pretty sure if he was actually non-tendered he would have immediately became a free agent and therefore could not be DFA'd.

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Obviously zero chance of trading Carter at this point. It seems that the Brewers were scared that he was going to push 8 figures in arby and probably were rebuffed when trying to work a deal with him at a lower amount. Call me crazy, but I'd rather have signed him for two years than Thames for three for the same money. Carter was a huge part of the offense last year and could be counted on to play every day. I thought he was adequate defensively at first as well. I don't get the Carter will not be part of a contending team stuff either, as almost exactly the same age as Thames. Don't see Thames as a flip candidate either, if they couldn't flip a guy at the top of the leaderboard in homers with virtually no money due last year at the deadline, why would they be able to get anything of value if Thames comes in and plays well? Heck, there is talk about eating salary with Braun, which I find absolutely absurd.
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Obviously zero chance of trading Carter at this point. It seems that the Brewers were scared that he was going to push 8 figures in arby and probably were rebuffed when trying to work a deal with him at a lower amount. Call me crazy, but I'd rather have signed him for two years than Thames for three for the same money. Carter was a huge part of the offense last year and could be counted on to play every day. I thought he was adequate defensively at first as well. I don't get the Carter will not be part of a contending team stuff either, as almost exactly the same age as Thames. Don't see Thames as a flip candidate either, if they couldn't flip a guy at the top of the leaderboard in homers with virtually no money due last year at the deadline, why would they be able to get anything of value if Thames comes in and plays well? Heck, there is talk about eating salary with Braun, which I find absolutely absurd.

Pretty disappointing that the Brewers are getting nothing for the NL HR leader last year, but I'm guessing all other teams are looking at it like he will get $8-10M in arby, and isn't worth it. It's quite possible Carter views himself as worth that much and would rather be a FA than take what was offered.

 

Teams are now valuing OBP more than in the past, so even if Thames and Carter have the same OPS, Thames will likely be more attractive, especially with defense factored in.

 

Based on contract and player worth, the Brewers shouldn't have to throw in money to trade Braun, but trades are not made in a vacuum. If a team was in the luxury tax zone, or couldn't afford the salary, but had really good prospects, the Brewers may choose to eat salary to get a really good haul.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Carter ultimately signed for less than his arby value. But the Brewers didn't have the luxury of trying to do that without letting the rest of the teams into the bidding. In the meantime, they signed Thames, which made the idea of non-tendering Chris and re-signing him moot.

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Wouldn't it make sense for a team to trade for him, so they could have the right to negotiate with him? There have to be multiple teams that want him.

 

The problem is that Carter would likely be slated for $8-10M if he went through arbitration. It would only make sense for a team to trade for him if they thought he was worth it, and while many teams may be interested in him, nobody will likely touch him at that price (let alone part with a player to acquire the right to do it).

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Wouldn't it make sense for a team to trade for him, so they could have the right to negotiate with him? There have to be multiple teams that want him.

 

The problem is that Carter would likely be slated for $8-10M if he went through arbitration. It would only make sense for a team to trade for him if they thought he was worth it, and while many teams may be interested in him, nobody will likely touch him at that price (let alone part with a player to acquire the right to do it).

 

Yeah, I originally thought they had a shot at trading him, but when they made it public that they expected his arby number to be over $10M, that pretty much shot that idea. Some team will likely negotiate a free agent deal with Carter for much less than that arby number, much like the Brewers did prior to last season.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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Honestly? In part, I blame the arbitration process and panels when something like this happens. If Carter's projected arbitration numbers were more in line with his actual value, I think it's very possible we just would have gone ahead and tendered him for $4-5M.

 

Even though we've all known for at least a decade or two that there's much more meaningful ways of determining a player's value than just going by their batting average, RBIs and HRs, arbitration panels are still notoriously stuck in the 1980s. I have no idea why, but there doesn't seem to have been much momentum to change it.

 

So the result is you have guys that go to arbitration with projected numbers that are clearly higher than their actual value, and as a team if you've already committed yourself to the player at this point, you're just stuck paying that high amount.

 

GMs and advisors are smarter than that these days. It's no longer just a bunch of old timers sitting around smoking cigars and talking about who's a gamer. And until arbitration panels catch up with the rest of baseball, you'll see more of this.

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Wouldn't it make sense for a team to trade for him, so they could have the right to negotiate with him? There have to be multiple teams that want him.

 

The problem is that Carter would likely be slated for $8-10M if he went through arbitration. It would only make sense for a team to trade for him if they thought he was worth it, and while many teams may be interested in him, nobody will likely touch him at that price (let alone part with a player to acquire the right to do it).

 

Yeah, I originally thought they had a shot at trading him, but when they made it public that they expected his arby number to be over $10M, that pretty much shot that idea. Some team will likely negotiate a free agent deal with Carter for much less than that arby number, much like the Brewers did prior to last season.

 

I agree that his arby number will probably be higher than what he's worth but as a free agent his salary is only going to go up and multiple teams try and sign him. If I really wanted him I would rather trade some random minor leaguers for him than get into a bidding war.

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  • 2 weeks later...
“Teams knew that if Chris Carter wasn’t dealt, the Brewers were going to non-tender him and allow him to become a free agent. That’s why the club was unable to get a return for the NL’s leading home run hitter last season. He added that Chris was disappointed in the outcome.”
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“Teams knew that if Chris Carter wasn’t dealt, the Brewers were going to non-tender him and allow him to become a free agent. That’s why the club was unable to get a return for the NL’s leading home run hitter last season. He added that Chris was disappointed in the outcome.”
brewcrewball.com

 

I could see where his arby number was headed, which would mean less interest after the season, and was surprised when they didn't move him for a little something. Which makes me wonder exactly how pitifully lowball offers did they get that they didn't bother to move him during the season last year.

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I agree that his arby number will probably be higher than what he's worth but as a free agent his salary is only going to go up and multiple teams try and sign him. If I really wanted him I would rather trade some random minor leaguers for him than get into a bidding war.

 

Not necessarily, and there's one of the flaws with the arbitration system. I'm sure it isn't designed this way and it doesn't happen often, but the discrepancy in the way the arbitration system values players (old school stats) and the way modern GMs value players (more value, WAR based), does once in awhile create a higher projected arbitration number than free agent value.

 

This is a problem for teams because you either overpay the player on purpose or you non-tender them and risk them picking somewhere else in free agency if you wanted to keep them. It doesn't happen often but it happens, I'm trying to think of a good example. Dave Bush IIRC got a pretty obviously higher number in arby from us than his FA value at the time.

 

It's not a great system. There's a theoretical 40/60/80 rule (40% of your FA value your first arby year, and so on). I think that's a great concept but unfortunately never actually works out that way because of the old school methodology of the arbitration panels. In free agency your market is whatever the highest paying GM thinks you can actually contribute. In arbitration your market is just whatever a few guys think of your raw numbers, guys who have no vested interest either way because they're not the ones paying you.

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  • 6 months later...
Brewer Fanatic Contributor

He was hitting 204/286/383/669 this year. His BA isn't that far off of last year, but OBP and SLG are way down. I wonder how hard his agent worked to negotiate with the Brewers to avoid arby or if he was using arby to get a big payday.

 

Either way, a player that strikes out a lot can be tolerated. Less so when an agent strikes out (for the player that is).

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