Rule 5 Prep

[Crash2303]

I'd take a waiver on Wang

 

the guys I would take are:

1) Tyler Webb- could be a major league contributor as a lefty specialist this year and in year's to come- also like the K numbers. if he sucks come june, send him back- no real loss.

 

2) Drew Muren- I'm a sucker for converted pitchers who throw 100mph. with only one pro season under his belt, has shown advanced feel for pitching. I don't think would be a terrible waste of space on the MLB roster, any more so than Goforth, but with a higher upside for the future.

 

Depends

Phillip Evans- the Brewers currently don't have much utility infield depth- I think this is probably best addressed in FA whether major or minor leagues, but even though evans has not hit above AA, he is intriguing. If they see his breakout year as a developmental change with enough upside to be a valuable major league commodity in the next few years, I could see them taking a flyer on him and could probably hold his own as much or slightly better than Walsh did last year enough to last the whole year. the scouting department would obviously be key (as it would be in any of these) in investigating his adjustments and his play during winter ball.

 

Almost, but no:

Justin Haley- would rather have a "surer" thing in Scahill to possibly bring back a lottery ticket at the trade deadline. don't see him with big upside nor much better than anyone else we have.

 

Zack Weiss- numbers remind me a lot of Zack(h) Jones and unfortunately, I think would net a similar result. though I still think Jones is going to be a great MLB reliever in a year or so.

 

 

I tried to use a criteria of would I rather have 'this guy' instead of Goforth/Scahill (assuming one of them makes the 25 man). also factoring in potential trade values for those current guys, depending on how their season goes.

[Outlander]

Zack Weiss- numbers remind me a lot of Zack(h) Jones and unfortunately, I think would net a similar result. though I still think Jones is going to be a great MLB reliever in a year or so.

If Jones is really expected to be a great reliever in a year then the Brewers should draft him again.

[MadScientist]

I kind of like the idea of Ismael Guillon (LHP Reds) for this reason:

He also has one of the best pickoff moves in the minors. He only nabbed six baserunners in 2016, but his reputation now precedes him–only 7 of 16 attempted basestealers succeeded as baserunners stay glued to first.

 

Bring him in as a loogy with a guy on first, and see if he can pick the guy off. Especially brutal if there are two outs and he nabs the guy on first.

[Crash2303]

Zack Weiss- numbers remind me a lot of Zack(h) Jones and unfortunately, I think would net a similar result. though I still think Jones is going to be a great MLB reliever in a year or so.

If Jones is really expected to be a great reliever in a year then the Brewers should draft him again.

 

should have clarified that my list was solely based off of the "cream of the crop" link from BA. is there a complete listing of rule v eligible guys somewhere? I know it would be huge, but if anyone knows of one- please link it here or direct me if I missed it already on the site.

[Mass Haas]

FanGraphs Guide to the Rule 5 Draft with their player rankings (via KATOH - what's that)

[And That]

The Brewers should take Nick Delmonico just to spite him.

 

I don't get the author's comment about Kyle Wren: "Frankly, I’m surprised a player of Wren’s caliber went unprotected." Light hitting corner outfielders are usually left unprotected for a reason. Wren will very likely not repeat his AAA .414 BABIP in 2017, and especially not at the major league level.

[brewmann04]

THE BREWERS STILL HAVE TIME TO CLEAR UP A 40 MAN SPOT THANKS FOR THE CLARFICATION

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers should take Nick Delmonico just to spite him.

 

I don't get the author's comment about Kyle Wren: "Frankly, I’m surprised a player of Wren’s caliber went unprotected." Light hitting corner outfielders are usually left unprotected for a reason. Wren will very likely not repeat his AAA .414 BABIP in 2017, and especially not at the major league level.

 

Compared to Reed and Walker, I'd much rather have Wren on my 40 man.

[MKE81]

The Brewers should take Nick Delmonico just to spite him.

 

I don't get the author's comment about Kyle Wren: "Frankly, I’m surprised a player of Wren’s caliber went unprotected." Light hitting corner outfielders are usually left unprotected for a reason. Wren will very likely not repeat his AAA .414 BABIP in 2017, and especially not at the major league level.

 

Compared to Reed and Walker, I'd much rather have Wren on my 40 man.

Reed is 2yrs younger and at the same level in the org; the only things he doesn't do better than Wren are stealing bases and hitting for a higher BA. Reed all day over Wren.

 

The Twins system has been ranked between 3 and 10 the past 2 seasons and Walker was 8-15. Sickles had him at 8 in their system heading into this season. You'd rather have a AAAA OF over a cheap, controllable, young starting 1b hitting 30-40HR? Wow

[LouisEly]

Delmonico wouldn't be a bad pick at all. Backup LHH corner IF. Sounds like he has matured a bit since then, and the Brewers basically have a new regime in place in Montgomery (hired Nov 2014) and Stearns (Sept 2015).

 

I don't think that anyone is looking at Wren as a starter, but he gets on base, has some speed, and can play all three OF positions, ideal for a 4th OF. His arm is a little light for CF, but adequate for a backup.

[And That]

Before 2016, Wren had a less-than-desirable BB% for a guy whose ISO is never going to sniff .100 in a normal offensive environment. Tony Gwynn Jr. got on base in the minor leagues too. Same as with Gwynn, MLB pitchers are not going to be afraid to throw him strikes because they are just as likely to knock the bat out of his hands as he is to hit a ball hard. Maybe Wren's upside at the plate is Gwynn, which is not saying much. He's also not nearly the defender TGJ was, which is where TGJ had most of his value.

 

If you're taking Wren in the Rule 5, you're taking him to be a 5th OF now, and a 5th OF in the future. I doubt teams are going to want to be saddled with a guy who has to be their 5th OF all season, as that's normally a role that rotates around during the year. Though if the 26th man is added the roster, it's more of a possibility.

[LouisEly]

The Twins system has been ranked between 3 and 10 the past 2 seasons and Walker was 8-15. Sickles had him at 8 in their system heading into this season. You'd rather have a AAAA OF over a cheap, controllable, young starting 1b hitting 30-40HR? Wow

Walker has a career minor league OBP of .310 and K rate of 30% on top of below-average defense. Yes, he has higher upside, but he will likely have to move to 1B where his bat projects to be well below average.

 

Neither is great, but IMO Wren projects to be more successful in the majors (as a 4th OF) than Walker (as a 1B).

 

As for a Walker-Kh. Davis-C. Carter comparison, they aren't comparable. Looking at their minor league numbers:

 

Walker: .251/.310/.486, 30% K rate, 7.7% BB rate, 5% HR rate

Kh. Davis: .285/.389/.501, 20% K rate, 12.7% BB rate, 4% HR rate

C. Carter: .283/.378/.535, 23.5% K rate, 12.1% BB rate, 5% HR rate

 

Carter was also drafted out of HS, whereas Walker and Davis were drafted out of college. The odds of Walker developing into Khris Davis or Chris Carter are pretty slim.

[MKE81]

The Twins system has been ranked between 3 and 10 the past 2 seasons and Walker was 8-15. Sickles had him at 8 in their system heading into this season. You'd rather have a AAAA OF over a cheap, controllable, young starting 1b hitting 30-40HR? Wow

Walker has a career minor league OBP of .310 and K rate of 30% on top of below-average defense. Yes, he has higher upside, but he will likely have to move to 1B where his bat projects to be well below average.

 

Neither is great, but IMO Wren projects to be more successful in the majors (as a 4th OF) than Walker (as a 1B).

 

As for a Walker-Kh. Davis-C. Carter comparison, they aren't comparable. Looking at their minor league numbers:

 

Walker: .251/.310/.486, 30% K rate, 7.7% BB rate, 5% HR rate

Kh. Davis: .285/.389/.501, 20% K rate, 12.7% BB rate, 4% HR rate

C. Carter: .283/.378/.535, 23.5% K rate, 12.1% BB rate, 5% HR rate

 

Carter was also drafted out of HS, whereas Walker and Davis were drafted out of college. The odds of Walker developing into Khris Davis or Chris Carter are pretty slim.

I never compared him to Davis or Carter. Your description about Wren can be said about Reed except Reed is better in almost every facet of the game, which is why he's thought of as a possible average starter or very good 4th vs Wren as a 5th ceiling. 5th OFs don't make bigger impacts than every day players. I also don't care about Walker's below average OF defense because he won't be playing OF for us. Your key phrase is Walker having "higher upside". He's going to K a lot but he can put up similar or better slash lines as Moreland, Moss, Adams, Marte, Zimmerman and such while hitting for elite power playing no worse than Carter on defense.

[LouisEly]

Before 2016, Wren had a less-than-desirable BB% for a guy whose ISO is never going to sniff .100 in a normal offensive environment. Tony Gwynn Jr. got on base in the minor leagues too. Same as with Gwynn, MLB pitchers are not going to be afraid to throw him strikes because they are just as likely to knock the bat out of his hands as he is to hit a ball hard. Maybe Wren's upside at the plate is Gwynn, which is not saying much. He's also not nearly the defender TGJ was, which is where TGJ had most of his value.

 

If you're taking Wren in the Rule 5, you're taking him to be a 5th OF now, and a 5th OF in the future. I doubt teams are going to want to be saddled with a guy who has to be their 5th OF all season, as that's normally a role that rotates around during the year. Though if the 26th man is added the roster, it's more of a possibility.

Wren was also in AA in his first full professional season, and in AAA in his second full professional season. We have already established that college players don't get as much coaching and experience as people think they do, certainly less than players who choose full-time pro baseball over college baseball. I would expect anyone who is in AA in his first full professional season to struggle. He then made adjustments and had a better walk rate at AA in 2015 before struggling after being promoted to AAA; he then made adjustments and had a great walk rate in 2016. He has done exactly what you hope a player does - get better every year. That is the issue with making judgments based on retrospective analysis - it doesn't take into account trends. Analysis is based on three components - what is the past, what is the present, what is the trend. There is the possibility that 2016 is an outlier, but the trend does not support it.

[And That]

Analysis is based on three components - what is the past, what is the present, what is the trend.

There is also talent level. He has no power to speak of, has a below average arm, and isn't really a CFer. He has plus speed but is not particularly great at using his speed to steal bases. On the scouting scale, his ceiling is a 45, but I would call him a 40 overall, with potential to drop to 35 if his offensive game regresses in 2017.

 

As for on-base trend, here are his walk rates:

 

2013: 7.81%

2014: 7.87%

2015: 7.54%

2016: 13.36%

 

2016 looks more like an outlier than any sort of continuation of a trend. One marginal change does not a trend make.

 

Edit:

As long as we're looking at trends, here is his SB success rate:

 

2013: 83.33%

2014: 78.13%

2015: 73.47%

2016: 70.73%

 

Or how about K%:

 

2013: 9.95%

2014: 14.82%

2015: 12.90%

2016: 15.31%

[MKE81]

Before 2016, Wren had a less-than-desirable BB% for a guy whose ISO is never going to sniff .100 in a normal offensive environment. Tony Gwynn Jr. got on base in the minor leagues too. Same as with Gwynn, MLB pitchers are not going to be afraid to throw him strikes because they are just as likely to knock the bat out of his hands as he is to hit a ball hard. Maybe Wren's upside at the plate is Gwynn, which is not saying much. He's also not nearly the defender TGJ was, which is where TGJ had most of his value.

 

If you're taking Wren in the Rule 5, you're taking him to be a 5th OF now, and a 5th OF in the future. I doubt teams are going to want to be saddled with a guy who has to be their 5th OF all season, as that's normally a role that rotates around during the year. Though if the 26th man is added the roster, it's more of a possibility.

Wren was also in AA in his first full professional season, and in AAA in his second full professional season. We have already established that college players don't get as much coaching and experience as people think they do, certainly less than players who choose full-time pro baseball over college baseball. I would expect anyone who is in AA in his first full professional season to struggle. He then made adjustments and had a better walk rate at AA in 2015 before struggling after being promoted to AAA; he then made adjustments and had a great walk rate in 2016. He has done exactly what you hope a player does - get better every year. That is the issue with making judgments based on retrospective analysis - it doesn't take into account trends. Analysis is based on three components - what is the past, what is the present, what is the trend. There is the possibility that 2016 is an outlier, but the trend does not support it.

Wren had 200 AB in A in 2013 then spent his first full pro year in 2014 with 300AB in A+ and 200 in AA. By the time he was in AA he was 23, had 4yr of college and a full season's worth of experience and pro coaching between A and A+. And you expect that person to struggle (which I don't think he even did)? His 2016 overall (mainly AAA) is absolutely an outlier compared to his previous 2yrs. If it wasn't he wouldn't be subjected to the Rule 5 because those numbers were outstanding.

 

If pro coaching is part of your reasoning for his great success at AAA this year then why is Gatewood still terrible after 3yrs of pro coaching? Why can't Tyrone Taylor get beyond AA with 4-5yrs of pro coaching? Talent matters and it matters greatly.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Wren's 2016 is almost certainly an outlier in some respects (his .392 average in Colorado Springs accounts for a lot of his .857 AAA OPS), but his walk rate had been improving the previous few years at level he'd start the year at before falling off after getting promoted (7.4% Class A 2013, 8.9% A+ 2014, 9.3% AA 2015). It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with a 10% or so walk rate in the big leagues.

 

He might be a coin flip to get picked. The biggest things working against him are I don't remember his center field defense being discussed as a significant positive (correct me if I'm wrong on this) and, while he is major league ready, is his offensive ceiling much higher than a .280/.360/.360 line?

[LouisEly]

There is also talent level. He has no power to speak of... On the scouting scale, his ceiling is a 45, but I would call him a 40 overall

 

Pretty much the same thing would have been said about Brian Dozier pre-2012. (His 2011 would have been called an outlier too, right?) NOT saying that will happen to Wren, but sometimes players make adjustments and get better. Dozier didn't become what he is until his 5th pro season.

 

His 2016 overall (mainly AAA) is absolutely an outlier compared to his previous 2yrs.

I never said it wasn't.

 

I never compared him to Davis or Carter.

I never said you did. I was referring to other people's comments.

 

If pro coaching is part of your reasoning for his great success at AAA this year then why is Gatewood still terrible after 3yrs of pro coaching? Why can't Tyrone Taylor get beyond AA with 4-5yrs of pro coaching? Talent matters and it matters greatly.

1) So you're saying the Brewers spent two top picks on players who have no talent? You made my point - Gatewood and Taylor have talent, but they haven't made the adjustments needed to succeed and get to the next level. Baseball is about making adjustments - hitters and pitchers will figure you out if you don't.

B) Some players listen to coaching more than others. Some players get complacent once they get a big payday. Some players think they can succeed by doing things "my way". Some players mentally can't handle failure. Some players can't block out off-the-field distractions. Takes a lot more than talent to succeed in baseball.

 

He's going to K a lot but he can put up similar or better slash lines as Moreland, Moss, Adams, Marte, Zimmerman and such while hitting for elite power playing no worse than Carter on defense.

You may want to look at the minor league slash lines for those guys before making that statement. Particularly Adams. While Zimmerman has fallen off recently, you should look at his 2006-2013 major league numbers. I'm pretty confident that Walker will never touch those.

[adambr2]

Here's a good look at the best available Rule 5 prospects.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-rule-5-draft-preview/

[jerichoholicninja]

Not that I'd be interested in him but Yonny Chirinos is the exact type of pitch that Stearns has acquired many of already in the he has a high strikeout-to-walk ratio.

[MKE81]

LouisEly - you said, regarding Wren, "There is the possibility that 2016 is an outlier, but the trend does not support it." So, yes, you effectively said it wasn't an outlier.

 

No, I didn't prove your point (Gatewood and Taylor). Wren has produced good slash lines (not so much OPS because he has no power) at every level - wealth of knowledge from professional coaching doesn't translate day one and he's produced since day one. So now you're saying those two players don't listen to coaches and instruction? Has there been any evidence that either is a head case? That either have off-the-field issues? That either aren't competitive and don't put in the effort required to succeed? If not, then maybe you shouldn't speak in generalities on why some people (who all come from different backgrounds) might fail. Maybe they're just not as talented as the Brewers initially thought? That does happen, you know.

 

I don't need to look at the minor league production or the younger MLB versions of Moreland, Moss, Adams, Marte, Zimmerman because I was referring to the 2016 versions of them - the versions where all of them (except for Marte) were regulars/contributors to playoff, or playoff caliber, teams. Walker could absolutely put up those same slash lines, including 2015 Zimmerman, while also hitting a lot more HR than them all. If he becomes more patient he can exceed those numbers. Marte obviously is around his age and Angels aren't that good so he's a different case.

 

Walker spent his 4 individual seasons in the Midwest, Florida St, Southern, International Leagues. He has always been in offensively challenged leagues and multiple times hit 25-31HR in some of the toughest parks/leagues to hit for power. His 2016 in AAA (2.5yrs young) is a pretty good indicator for what he could do now in the MLB - 243/305/784 hitting 30+ HR. If he can become a little bit more patient, draw some more walks, lay off some pitches he'll improve those numbers. The Brewers have pushed this philosophy since Stearns took over and players have bought in so I expect that to benefit Walker. He's a starting 1b or DH. Wren is a 5th OF who can play 3 OF spots (but not all of them well) while having an OK arm, good speed. He'll hit for a decent avg, get on base, steal some bases, has minimal pop but he won't be a regular/contributor. We all know the Brewers will start losing guys in the Rule 5 if they continue to have a deep, good system but guys they believe will be MLB contributors are the guys they're keeping on the 40. If Wren is selected, along with Wang, then so be it. They're not difference makers. Plus, there's always some guys you want to take a chance on, especially pen arms. There's some intriguing guys in this year's draft that I'd personally rather have on the 40 and give them a chance at the MLB level now to show they can help the team in the long-term vs someone like Wren who is buried on the OF depth chart.

[LouisEly]

Walker spent his 4 individual seasons in the Midwest, Florida St, Southern, International Leagues. He has always been in offensively challenged leagues and multiple times hit 25-31HR in some of the toughest parks/leagues to hit for power. His 2016 in AAA (2.5yrs young) is a pretty good indicator for what he could do now in the MLB

Wren was young for his leagues too: -1.4 at AAA in 2016, -2.8 in AAA in 2015, -1.5 in AA in 2014. But I don't think this is a good gauge to look at because league averages will vary depending on how many older roster filler players are in each league each year (especially at AAA), and each league (there is no one AA/AAA) will be different. These guys are less than 1.5 years apart in age; I don't think that is a significant difference. If we were talking 3+ years then I would agree.

 

If he can become a little bit more patient, draw some more walks, lay off some pitches he'll improve those numbers.

This is where we differ, because I think that is a very big "if" and the chances of it coming to fruition, IMO, are very small. The evidence is his K rate:

 

2013 - 20.8%

2014 - 28.1%

2015 - 34.8%

2016 - 37.6%

 

This is why I don't think he can sustain that production; the higher he's gone the worse he gets. If he's striking out that much on minor league pitching, major league pitchers will abuse him. All of those singles and walks that raise the BA and OBP have value and generate runs (not to mention sac flies), and you simply cannot sustain performance based on hitting a higher than average number of home runs and striking out 40% of the time or more. There's a lot more to the game than home runs. I think he'll be lucky to slash .210/.270/.430, and a .700 OPS with below average defense at 1B is a negative WAR player. Guys like Zimmerman are in the league because 1) they are hoping he regains his pre-2014 form and b) they are stuck with his contract. Matt Adams had a .315/.362/.559 minor league slash line; Walker is not comparable to that at all. They'll give Adams plenty of chances based on his minor league numbers, and he has been hurt the last two years as well.

 

So now you're saying those two players don't listen to coaches and instruction? Has there been any evidence that either is a head case? That either have off-the-field issues? That either aren't competitive and don't put in the effort required to succeed?

I was speaking in generalities as to why talented players don't make it, not specifically referring to those players. I don't know them personally, but I do personally know people who have played minor league baseball, and those are reasons why very talented baseball players don't make it. It takes a lot more than talent to make it, and I will stand by that.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree here.

[CheezWizHed]

Not that I'd be interested in him but Yonny Chirinos is the exact type of pitch that Stearns has acquired many of already in the he has a high strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

Him or Zack Weiss sound pretty similar. Weiss is coming off an elbow surgery, so they would probably kick the tires in ST and return him if not ready yet. But if ready, he could be a decent steal for a BP guy.

[And That]

Another Rule 5 draft preview, this time from MLB Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo.

 

Nellie Rodriguez would be an interesting platoon-mate for Thames, especially if rosters expand to 26.

 

If Lewis Thorpe is (finally) healthy, he could be an interesting arm to nab.

[brewmann04]

I look at taking a shot at a arm in rule 5 if we get a shot