Junior Guerra

[JohnBriggs12]

While ownership and management have publicly stated that 2017 year is another rebuilding year, players don't look at it that way and trading your announced opening day starter a week before the season is unsettling unless the return is perceived as having some immediate or at the least substantial impact in the very near future. If Guerra performs this year as he did in 2016, either of two things will happen. Most obvious is he'll become an even more attractive trade chip at this year's deadline, or he'll help put the Brewers in position to make noise this year, something that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand before a game has been played. If he performs poorly, it will be disappointing, but it's not like the Brewers are void of talent in their system right now as it is.

[FVBrewerFan]

While ownership and management have publicly stated that 2017 year is another rebuilding year, players don't look at it that way and trading your announced opening day starter a week before the season is unsettling unless the return is perceived as having some immediate or at the least substantial impact in the very near future. If Guerra performs this year as he did in 2016, either of two things will happen. Most obvious is he'll become an even more attractive trade chip at this year's deadline, or he'll help put the Brewers in position to make noise this year, something that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand before a game has been played. If he performs poorly, it will be disappointing, but it's not like the Brewers are void of talent in their system right now as it is.

 

Yea, they have enough talent. Time has come to stop acquiring it.

 

Also, what do you expect players to do if Guerra is traded? You really think they don't understand the position the Brewers are in? I mean, they know it's a rebuilding year. Anything can happen, but they're realistic- and also understand above all it is a business. You don't avoid making a trade that benefits the team long term because you're afraid some of your players may be shocked to learn they're not a WS contender.

[Madhawk23]

So, what teams do we think might be the biggest suitors for Guerra this summer? Obviously, I realize we need to let the season play out here to see which teams are in contention and need pitching. But, is there a list of 2-3 teams that we can start to look at? Houston is the obvious, since it sounds like they are already sniffing around for more pitching help. I'm a bit surprised to see the Braves in these discussions though.

[gregmag]

If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

Couldn't agree more with this. The reality is the Brewers are likely going to fully open their window sometime in 2019 and Guerra will be 34 years old at that point. Granted Guerra will be a young 34 given the limited # of innings on his arm, but 34 nonetheless. If they can acquire something of value that can be ready in 2019, I am more than willing to throw Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Garza and Anderson in the rotation to begin 2017.

 

I trust Stearns will make the move if his asking price is met.

Guerra is going to have to pitch well again this season for at least a few months before any team is going to give up something of real value for him.

 

So far Guerra has a very tiny track record vs big league hitters. If i'm a team looking for a starter, i'd want to see Guerra prove again that he can be productive. Taylor Jungmann had a 2.87 ERA after 18 starts in 2018. Guerra only made 20 starts last year.

 

Hopefully he pitches well until around the trade deadline and if so, he might fetch a quality return given he also gets paid spare change currently and for years to come.

I think this is right. I'm glad DS didn't rush to trade Guerra in the offseason. I think taking him into this season and waiting for the deadline is a good bet:

 

Best-case scenario: Guerra puts up similar numbers to what he put up last year. At that point he's close to an established ace, probably a #2 on a contender. His value grows a lot.

 

Medium-case scenario: Guerra puts up something like a 3.60 ERA with corresponding peripherals. This is what I think danzig is right about -- I think under this scenario he's still worth more at the 2017 deadline than he was in the offseason, because he's proved that he's a healthy, quality rotation guy, capable of peaking like he did last year and sustaining at a lower but still useful level.

 

Worst-case scenario: He gets hurt or craters, putting up an ERA north of 4 with corresponding peripherals. If this happens then you wish you took the best offer in the offseason.

 

He made good adjustments last year, and he has a quality arsenal of pitches. Worst-case scenario could still happen, but I think Stearns was smart to bet against it.

[danzig6767]

I think this is right. I'm glad DS didn't rush to trade Guerra in the offseason. I think taking him into this season and waiting for the deadline is a good bet:

 

Best-case scenario: Guerra puts up similar numbers to what he put up last year. At that point he's close to an established ace, probably a #2 on a contender. His value grows a lot.

 

Medium-case scenario: Guerra puts up something like a 3.60 ERA with corresponding peripherals. This is what I think danzig is right about -- I think under this scenario he's still worth more at the 2017 deadline than he was in the offseason, because he's proved that he's a healthy, quality rotation guy, capable of peaking like he did last year and sustaining at a lower but still useful level.

 

Worst-case scenario: He gets hurt or craters, putting up an ERA north of 4 with corresponding peripherals. If this happens then you wish you took the best offer in the offseason.

 

He made good adjustments last year, and he has a quality arsenal of pitches. Worst-case scenario could still happen, but I think Stearns was smart to bet against it.

My guess is your medium case scenario.

 

That Guerra pitches pretty well, not as good as last, but well enough that he's still attractive to a number of teams given starting pitching is always in demand and especially dirt cheap starting pitching.

 

If that were to happen i think Stearns could easily get at least one top 100 prospect maybe in that 50-75 range along with an intriguing throw in or two. Try trading him now instead, other teams are still going to be able to low ball Stearns more because Guerra only has a track record of 20 starts last year against hitters who had never seen him before.

 

On a risk/reward scale, i think keeping Guerra in hopes that he does well again this year to increase his value trumps selling him off right now for whatever is out these.

[MrTPlush]

Kind of pointless to decide whether it is a good or bad idea since we have nothing to go off to know what is currently offered. If we had some rumors maybe, but we really don't.

[adambr2]

Well, so much for his trade value now.

[TURBO]

Well, so much for his trade value now.

 

??

[young guns]

Well, so much for his trade value now.

 

??

3.2 ip 10 h 12 r 7 er 2bb 1k 4hr

 

His line for todays game. Jungmann didnt help in relief by letting all 3 inherited runners score.

[FVBrewerFan]

Kind of pointless to decide whether it is a good or bad idea since we have nothing to go off to know what is currently offered. If we had some rumors maybe, but we really don't.

 

Yea, I don't see it so much as a best/medium/worst case. As always, Stearns has a value in mind what Guerra is worth. If he is offered that today, he takes it. It's not like he's looking at it as how much risk he's taking, trying to get more later, etc.

 

He did the same thing with Braun, Lucroy, and everyone else. Sometimes you get the offer that's acceptable, sometimes not. But the word gets out you're not playing around. Guessing Stearns has the reputation already he's someone you can deal with, but you're not going to pull the wool over his eyes.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Rangers rotation is Hamels and Darvish and then a bunch of nobody's/injuries waiting to happen/already injureds. I wouldn't be surprised if they are looking to further stock up our minor league system come July.

[LouisEly]

What's missing from this debate is the fact that every starting pitcher with any type of "track record" on the trading block has a contract well into the seven figures if not eight figures. Guerra is still pre-arb; he's not just under control for five more seasons, he's essentially league minimum for this season and next.

 

Anyone can take on his contract - anyone. Unlike every available starting pitcher with a "track record" there is zero financial risk with acquiring him. There is performance risk with everyone, but whether it is Garza or Sale or whomever else is available there is financial risk in the acquisition in addition to performance risk.

 

Prospects have performance risk, but they have value because they have no financial risk. Guerra washing out 3-4 years from now when he hits 35 is no different than the average prospect who washes out at 27 because he isn't good enough.

[adambr2]

Guerra washing out 3-4 years from now when he hits 35 is no different than the average prospect who washes out at 27 because he isn't good enough.

 

While I agree with the cost control aspect of Guerra certainly benefiting his trade value, to me there's still some differences here because of Guerra's age. Yes, an average prospect can flame out too, but the other side of the coin gives the prospect about 10-15 years of potential value if he pans out.

 

Guerra is certainly on the clock because of his age. I like him a lot, but even if he becomes what we hope, there's probably 5 years of value here, tops.

[chewy522]

All players only have 6 years of value. If you perform amazingly, you will hit the free agent market and demand big money. Only value of having the player first is that you can give them an extension early on like we did with Braun or lucroy but there is still risk with that. Guerra has immense value because he is cheap and mostly cost controlled for the remainder of his career. A team like the rays could deal for him now and trade him again in 2 years for essentially the same level of prospects. I think most of us here are under valuing Guerra due to the unique nature of his age, production, and price.

[adambr2]

All players only have 6 years of value. If you perform amazingly, you will hit the free agent market and demand big money. Only value of having the player first is that you can give them an extension early on like we did with Braun or lucroy but there is still risk with that. Guerra has immense value because he is cheap and mostly cost controlled for the remainder of his career. A team like the rays could deal for him now and trade him again in 2 years for essentially the same level of prospects. I think most of us here are under valuing Guerra due to the unique nature of his age, production, and price.

 

Yes and no. If he's your homegrown guy, your Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw, for instance, you stand a better chance at keeping him for his career than every other team. Like we did with Braun.

[paul253]

Prospects have performance risk, but they have value because they have no financial risk. Guerra washing out 3-4 years from now when he hits 35 is no different than the average prospect who washes out at 27 because he isn't good enough

 

They have value because of their contract but their greater value comes from how they actually play. If a prospect has three below average years in the minors then has one great season are you going to value him the same as you value a prospect who had four good to great seasons? Of course not. So how is Junior Guerra any different? His team friendly contract doesn't erase the fact that he had hardly any success, even in the minors, until he turned 31 years old. One season of success doesn't necessarily make him a valuable trade piece, no matter how team friendly his contract is. There are one year wonders all the time. Hell Taylor Jungmann was one. Teams generally want to see more than that one year before they give up anything significant. That's why if anyone was willing to give up anything significant for Guerra the Brewers should have jumped in it.

 

It's all a moot point now as Guerra is out for up to 6 weeks and will have to rebuild whatever trade value he had.

[jerichoholicninja]

Guerra injury.

 

#BrewerLuck

[brewcrewdue80]

And here it is

[MrTPlush]

And here it is