Junior Guerra

[MrTPlush]

Please. Please. Just package him with Braun and bring us Urias. I know Urias is a tough-get but this is an example of how we could have an avenue to a cornerstone-ace and the Dodgers already have interest in Braun. Throw cash in if you have to. I know it's a pipe dream though but my point is this is a perfect situation to spice up Braun to net something really substantial.

 

 

A pitcher who's service clock has already began? This rebuild needs more than one possible good pitcher. Maybe if some other guys have already shown they're ready to contend but we are just not there yet.

 

Yah a pitcher 100x better than anything in this entire organization. We need to bring in talent. If the Dodgers were dumb enough to trade Urias Stearns would be all over that. Arcia has his clock started and so does Villar. We aren't going to build a team full of players hitting the majors at the same time. Some will have less service time and some a lot. To avoid Urias over a started service clock(literally just started) would be tragic.

[adambr2]

I agree that if Urias was available for Braun and Guerra I think Stearns would and should pull the trigger without hesitation. That would be a tremendous acquisition to get your star ace of the future and worth the price, but more than likely it is a pipe dream.

 

Urias' service time really isn't much of a concern anyway since he didn't accrue a full season in 2016. He still is under club control for 6 more seasons.

 

Regardless, Stearns' rebuild plan has been all about acquiring the most possible talent at every possible level and I can't imagine he would pass on a possible ace who was the #4 overall prospect in baseball before he lost his eligibility simply because his service clock was started last year.

[Eye Black]

While I am very much in favor of the Brewers cashing in on Guerra's value, but I have a feeling Stearns is likely to keep him heading into the season unless a team puts forth a very solid offer. Admittedly I have no idea what type of offers Guerra is garnering, but with the asset value of prospects seemingly on the rise I am not convinced someone would give up a top 50ish prospect as a headliner for him.

 

Here are some hypothetical prospect "headliners" I could see offered in a deal for Guerra from a few of the teams in need of starting pitching:

 

Royals: Josh Staumont or Ryan O'Hearn

 

Pirates: Cole Tucker

 

Orioles: Jomar Reyes or Ryan Mountcastle

 

Dodgers: Willie Calhoun

 

Rangers: Yohander Mendez

 

While some of those players as trade headliners are intriguing, Mendez is the only one I would consider a home run. If they were to entertain trade offers for Guerra it might come down to which team has the best secondary pieces in their system for the Brewers to mine.

[adambr2]

While I am very much in favor of the Brewers cashing in on Guerra's value, but I have a feeling Stearns is likely to keep him heading into the season unless a team puts forth a very solid offer. Admittedly I have no idea what type of offers Guerra is garnering, but with the asset value of prospects seemingly on the rise I am not convinced someone would give up a top 50ish prospect as a headliner for him.

 

Here are some hypothetical prospect "headliners" I could see offered in a deal for Guerra from a few of the teams in need of starting pitching:

 

Royals: Josh Staumont or Ryan O'Hearn

 

Pirates: Cole Tucker

 

Orioles: Jomar Reyes or Ryan Mountcastle

 

Dodgers: Willie Calhoun

 

Rangers: Yohander Mendez

 

While some of those players as trade headliners are intriguing, Mendez is the only one I would consider a home run. If they were to entertain trade offers for Guerra it might come down to which team has the best secondary pieces in their system for the Brewers to mine.

 

I would take Mendez for sure. A low top 100 isn't going to cut it unless it's supported by some strong secondary pieces. There's no reason for us to expect less than a similar value to what we got for Will Smith.

 

Stearns has most of the leverage here. He doesn't need to aggressively shop Guerra, if the return is underwhelming he should be perfect comfortable risking the chance that Guerra will regress. The upside is that if he doesn't, he'll cost even more to interested teams at this time next season.

 

Teams can be as skeptical of Guerra as they want, and I'm sure they will be, but the fact of the matter is that starting pitching is a huge need for many contending teams, it's a very weak FA class, and it's rare that a sub 3.00 ERA starter with basically a whole career left of cheap control becomes available in trade for less than a top 25 prospect. If teams aren't willing to value Guerra in that way despite their concerns, there's no reason for Stearns to pull the trigger now.

[MrTPlush]

Junior Guerra isn't a sub 3.00 pitcher. He isn't even close. All 30 teams know that...even Stearns. If he tries to value him like one he is overplaying his hand. He is closer and more likely to be a 4.00 pitcher.

 

Guerra is attractive in this market, but more realistically you can hope for a 3.75 ERA type pitcher. With good risk he could regress of that or spend lots of time on the DL.

[adambr2]

Junior Guerra isn't a sub 3.00 pitcher. He isn't even close. All 30 teams know that...even Stearns. If he tries to value him like one he is overplaying his hand. He is closer and more likely to be a 4.00 pitcher.

 

Guerra is attractive in this market, but more realistically you can hope for a 3.75 ERA type pitcher. With good risk he could regress of that or spend lots of time on the DL.

 

I'm factually stating what he was in 2016. As of right now it is fact that he is a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher with 5 remaining years of control.

 

Of course a regression is possible at best and likely at worse, so he isn't going to be valued like a typical pitcher with the same numbers, and that's why I said he isn't going to command a top 25 prospect in return. Teams will have reservations, but we also don't NEED to deal him, so they need to give in more than we do if they want him.

 

While Stearns likely can't demand most team's #1 prospect in return, he can and should value him more than the hypothetical 4.00 ERA pitcher that other teams might see him as.

[MadScientist]

As good as Guerra was last year, I don't trust him to sustain that level for any length of time. Between age and elbow issues possibly caused by relying on a splitter, he could easily decline or find himself needing TJ by the end of the season. If Sterns gets a top 100, or a near top 100 plus a lottery ticket, he should take it. I hope Guerra keeps pitching well, at least into his arby years so he can make some money, but I just wouldn't bet on it.

[HighHeat19]

As good as Guerra was last year, I don't trust him to sustain that level for any length of time. Between age and elbow issues possibly caused by relying on a splitter, he could easily decline or find himself needing TJ by the end of the season. If Sterns gets a top 100, or a near top 100 plus a lottery ticket, he should take it. I hope Guerra keeps pitching well, at least into his arby years so he can make some money, but I just wouldn't bet on it.

 

After reading the past 10 or so posts, this seems to be the overall connotation associated with JR. And with that the GM's are feeling the same. Unless some team becomes desperate, I don't see JR going anywhere.

 

Now, if JR. is still pitching with those same peripherals come July. You will see teams pony up for sure. But the doubts that everyone is posting here I am sure they run true through every front office. If I'm a GM and I'm giving up a top 50 prospect for JR, why do it now when you can see if he's the real deal come July. It will cost you that same prospect either way and at least you can see if your A. a contending team. B) Is JR the real deal. You are still going to get all off those arby years. The only way it would pay is if you knew another team wanted him badly, and I don't see teams fighting for him. Based on what the last posters have written.

[TURBO]

JR?

[billymac]

JR?

 

Junior = Jr. = JR

[clancyphile]

This is a great situation for the Brewers to capitalize on a bad free agency crop for starters to get a great return on someone who was worth nothing a few months ago. The best part is the ball is entirely in Stearns' court because Guerra has a ton of cheap control left so there's no rush to deal him if we don't get the offer we want. Still I think there are too many risks to holding on to him so if you can get anything close to an Espinoza type return you need to pull the trigger.

 

I agree. And not just with Guerra. I think Chase Anderson, Matt Garza, and even Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson should be on the market. Deal the two or three of them that bring the best returns, keep the other two, and start seeing what guys like Hader, Woodruff, Suter, Perrin, Jungmann, Wang, Ortiz, Perrin, and Lopez can do.

[brewmann04]

I agree on the pitchers just cant see any return for Anderson and Garza. Maybe mid level prospect for Nelson and or Peralta

[TURBO]

JR?

 

Junior = Jr. = JR

 

Ok, I kept thinking JR were initials for someone since both letters were always capitalized...

[crickets]

Junior Guerra mentioned as the 2nd best available starting pitcher behind Quintana in talks amongst execs

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/trade-talk-white-sox-patiently-dangling-jose-quintana-013728002.html

[adambr2]

Beat me to it. Two sources on there said he's the 2nd best SP option on the block. If no one will meet the price for Quintana and someone overpays for Guerra, it's probably the right move to do it if Stearns gets the right offer.

[JohnBriggs12]

Guerra's 32 but his arm doesn't have half the innings in it that most guys his age have. A solid year of an ERA in the 3.50 range will only enhance his value for next winter as that would confirm his status as at worst a solid number 3 controllable starter. Trading your opening day pitcher less than two weeks before a season is unprecedented. Stearns needs to be blown away and not accept simply another prospect who'll be behind guys they already have.

[brewmann04]

I don't for see Guerra in the rotation past the trading deadline.

[MillerParkSouth]

Great to hear. Hopefully Junior starts off the season really strong and we can make a deal.

[FVBrewerFan]

Trading your opening day pitcher less than two weeks before a season is unprecedented. Stearns needs to be blown away and not accept simply another prospect who'll be behind guys they already have.

 

Is it unprecedented? I'm not challenging that, just honestly don't know. Hopefully a couple teams are real interested and just want to see a few quality starts out of him.

 

I do think we're at the point of the rebuild where positions start to come into play. Specifically, it just wouldn't make sense right now to get another OF. Pitching would be preferred, and I'm sure Stearns is looking at it that way.

[paul253]

If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

[Warning Track Power]

If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

Couldn't agree more with this. The reality is the Brewers are likely going to fully open their window sometime in 2019 and Guerra will be 34 years old at that point. Granted Guerra will be a young 34 given the limited # of innings on his arm, but 34 nonetheless. If they can acquire something of value that can be ready in 2019, I am more than willing to throw Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Garza and Anderson in the rotation to begin 2017.

 

I trust Stearns will make the move if his asking price is met.

[brewmann04]

Guerra will not be around for long especially if he gets off to a good start.

[danzig6767]

If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

Couldn't agree more with this. The reality is the Brewers are likely going to fully open their window sometime in 2019 and Guerra will be 34 years old at that point. Granted Guerra will be a young 34 given the limited # of innings on his arm, but 34 nonetheless. If they can acquire something of value that can be ready in 2019, I am more than willing to throw Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Garza and Anderson in the rotation to begin 2017.

 

I trust Stearns will make the move if his asking price is met.

Guerra is going to have to pitch well again this season for at least a few months before any team is going to give up something of real value for him.

 

So far Guerra has a very tiny track record vs big league hitters. If i'm a team looking for a starter, i'd want to see Guerra prove again that he can be productive. Taylor Jungmann had a 2.87 ERA after 18 starts in 2018. Guerra only made 20 starts last year.

 

Hopefully he pitches well until around the trade deadline and if so, he might fetch a quality return given he also gets paid spare change currently and for years to come.

[brewcrewdue80]

He's clearly worth something being the no 2 option out there reportedly, where #1 is asking for Andrew Benintendo+.

 

I know how we feel on his age and thus to be traded, butif Stearns is a talent getter, well Guerra proven talent over Peralta, Nelson, Garza, and Anderson at this point. We don't have 4 better than #3s coming yet. Embracing the rebuild may be finishing, and adding wins within the ML roster for Stearns happening. Now Im not saying we're trading away prospects, but when you're acquiring talent and Guerra possesses and shows it, that mindset leans to saving him. Hes got more team control than Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson. The Cubs won the World Series with 37yr old John Lackey, 33 year old Jason Hammel the non #3+ getting 59GS.

Lackey makes 16mil this season Hammel 5million the 1st of a 2yr/14mil guaranteed deal. So 7mil avg.

 

Again, he has team control. And showing better talent than guys who have less. Saying he wont be around by the time the team becomes competitive is false. He can be around, and he can potentially be valuable in that team. He's a pre-arb paid SP. Peralta is not. Anderson will not be after this season. If you are going to move him, the trade deadline/ next offseason he can be the Jose Q at that point. With Stearns asking for a Victor Robles or Eloy Jimenez price.

Guys like him have accelerated this rebuild. Great seasons and returns on Smith, Thornburg, Lucroy, and Jeffress was the opposite of normal for Milw with trade pieces. Those guys produced and got back more value than heading in to 2016. Let these guys play and find out if they'll increase their value. All of them not named Davies can increase that we're barking to trade when higher talent is offered.

[crickets]

Guerra could be around for when we compete again, but arms are hard to predict and the splitter puts a lot of pressure on the elbow. What if Stearns waited until next years deadline on Will Smith and Thornburg...both have some arm issues going on right now we wouldn't have come close to the return we had. I do feel like last year at this point this seems like the Lucroy situation, granted Lucroy has way more of a track record. We see the high potential on him and GMs need to see a little more. I remember something came out last year that Jon daniels made a comment how Stearns was asking for 2 top prospects for Lucroy in the offseason last year and he sort of laughed it off, well it took 4 months of solid play to get them. If Stearns gets his asking now, by all means. I think he will be a trade deadline candidate though and hope Guerra continues pitching well for 3-4 months.