Sleepers from the 2016 draft...

[clancyphile]

You have to remember that 3 of those picks usually are to save bonus pool money so obviously right off the bat you already have a poor success rate.

 

Maybe, but why compromise that rate? Why not look to 1st-round talents from 4-year colleges who slip?

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Someone nobody is talking about is Zack Clark. We took him in the 19th round, and the kid HAS tools. Maybe I'm biased because I love the power speed combo, but I feel like he has a chance to make some noise.

[CheezWizHed]

You have to remember that 3 of those picks usually are to save bonus pool money so obviously right off the bat you already have a poor success rate.

 

Maybe, but why compromise that rate? Why not look to 1st-round talents from 4-year colleges who slip?

 

I would wager that there aren't many 1st round talents that are in college for 4 years. Due to the way the system works, not many guys want to wait and be drafted as a senior. It works against them for their signing bonus.

 

However, the last two years, guys that the Brewers picked as college seniors have played pretty well so far (York and Allemand). I'm not sure if they will make the majors, but they have outplayed my expectations so far.

[CheeseheadInQC]

This is going back a bit, but on the conversation about the Brewers' drafting in rounds 2-10, I had too much time on my hands tonight so I thought I'd see how it tested out compared to league averages. Among players drafted and signed in rounds 2-10 between 2000 and 2010, the average team's draftees earned about 84 WAR. The Brewers' earned about 111. I'm not sure if they had a smaller number of their draftees crack the majors, but as far as overall impact goes, they've actually come out ahead of the game. Most guys drafted in those rounds either flame out in the minors or barely make an impact in the majors. Expecting more than one a year, on average, to become a significant big league contributor is setting yourself up for disappointment. J.J. Hardy alone, based on WAR, is roughly equivalent to three years of an average team's draft during those rounds.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is going back a bit, but on the conversation about the Brewers' drafting in rounds 2-10, I had too much time on my hands tonight so I thought I'd see how it tested out compared to league averages. Among players drafted and signed in rounds 2-10 between 2000 and 2010, the average team's draftees earned about 84 WAR. The Brewers' earned about 111. I'm not sure if they had a smaller number of their draftees crack the majors, but as far as overall impact goes, they've actually come out ahead of the game. Most guys drafted in those rounds either flame out in the minors or barely make an impact in the majors. Expecting more than one a year, on average, to become a significant big league contributor is setting yourself up for disappointment. J.J. Hardy alone, based on WAR, is roughly equivalent to three years of an average team's draft during those rounds.

 

Way to crunch numbers. How is that WAR for just 1st round choices? Though the old comp style 1st rounds could last what is the end of the 2nd round these days.

Is there a way you could say evaluate the top 35picks. And then Picks 36-315? Essentially I'm giving 15 comp picks 5 for 1st and 10more beyond in suggesting 315/10 rounds for 30 teams with 15 comp picks. And looking a BRef, 315 is the approximate end of the 10th round the last 4 drafts. Which would seem to coincide with the current QO/comp system vs the supplemental. Looking at 2012&2011 the 1st round had 60 1st round picks 2010-50 and 2009-49 46 then 64, 44, 48 2005.

 

Looking at 10th round its not much changing, the changing would come in on the 2nd round today type picks who are listed for 1st round choices.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I haven't run the numbers for the first round yet, but eye-balling the picks after 35, that might bump the average up to 95 or so per team over that period. Between factoring in that a lot of those players still have time to increase their WAR and that the current system place an emphasis on signability and often below-slot deals in rounds 6-10 in order to increase the chances of signing above-slot guys drafted after that, I'd say the evidence points to 10, maybe 12 WAR being the per team, per year average going forward for rounds 2-10.

[And That]

Scott Serigstad. After doing some research on him, he seems to both generate weak contact and induce ground balls when he's actually executing his pitches. Yes, his ERA and H/9 in Helena were ridiculous, but I do believe there is some talent there.

 

Same goes for Thomas Jankins, though his results were obviously more in line with the above-described skill set.