Sleepers from the 2016 draft...

[clancyphile]

Just to stoke some discussion... do you think there are any sleepers among the Brewers' picks in the 2016 June draft?

 

I'll start off with a few:

1. C/IF Gabriel Garcia - The 14th-round pick played around the infield, but drafted as a catcher. Posted an .893 OPS in Arizona. Might be a sleeper catcher prospect.

2. 1B Ronnie Gideon - Picked in the 23rd round, I slotted him at #4 on my Top 25 ballot. Raw power (37 XBH in 245 PA).

3. UT Weston Wilson - Picked in the 17th round, he posted an .887 OPS while playing seven positions. #24 on my ballot.

[CheezWizHed]

Gideon was amazing last year, but as a college guy at R+ ball, I'll wait to see how he does at A-ball before I get too excited. I'm about equally excited about Garcia and Gideon on my 1B depth chart.

 

Less of a sleeper pick, but despite what the scouting reports stated, Burnes (4) and Brown (5) have legitimate chances to remain SPs at the MLB level. Burnes might have #2 potential.

 

Trey York was a shocker pick for me. Very little scouting on the guy, signed as a senior with minimal signing bonus, I thought he was drafted to play the signing pool bonus game and become MiLB depth only. But he hit well at R+ and A+ (Brevard of all places!)

 

Chad McClanahan is less of a sleeper given how he was drafted and signed and didn't wow anyone with stats. But has good potential. Probably another 1B however.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting to see if they have anywhere close to as much luck with their rounds 11-40 college pitchers as they did last year. Perrin, Harber, Olczak, Torres-Costa, Desguin, Owenby and Grist all had fairly to very successful first full seasons.

 

Of the 2016 crop, Jankins seems like the best bet to at least turn into a solid organizational arm given the promotion and decent success last season and the fact that he's the only one who I'd say is a near lock to be on one of the full-season rosters to start the season (partially because the success of the 2015 group, along with some other factors, seems to have made the competition for the A and A+ pitching staffs much tougher this year).

[And That]

Wes Wilson has plus power. He's probably a 3B/corner OF down the line, but I like him a lot.

 

Ryan Aguilar is a gamer, and can play CF.

[Jenkins5]

Zach Clark is a guy I'm going to be watching close this next season.

 

Gideon & Wilson had great seasons but I expect power school college bats to excel at Helena. Until they prove it at a higher level.... They aren't on my radar too much. Really to me it's Sean Halton & Steffon Wilson prospects to me right now. Gideon at #4 is mind blowing.... In his draft class alone I don't think he is even top 5 as a prospect.... Let alone while system. Ray, Erceg, Burns have already proved themselves more at higher levels. Way more upside.

 

Gabe Garcia could be steal. 6'3 185, 18 year old catcher who really produced. Believe he offers pretty solid defense as well. Going to be watching him close. We have 5 pretty exciting sub 19 year old catchers in DSL-Rookie ball to follow, hopefully 2-3 really click (Garcia, Henry, Felicano, Sibrian, Perez. 20 year old Atencio missed age 18 season & struggled in Helena at 19 but has potential as well.)

[clancyphile]

Gideon's got a power tool in the 70-80 range, IMO. There's doing well, and then there's dominating, and Gideon dominated.

 

Wilson... I'm more excited by the versatility. Even if he only puts up a 2015-esque Hernan Perez OPS, he still becomes a valuable bench asset. That said, if his bat also holds up... that will be sheer awesomeness.

 

Garcia... I caught a bit of a BJ Surhoff vibe from the versatility as well. Played catcher, second, third, and first in 2016. Honestly, I'd like to see him spend half the time behind the plate, and the other half around the infield. That bat will play, but I bet he could be almost as good offensively as Lucroy was. The versatility makes him an interesting utility option, too. It could be like having a third catcher on the 25-man.

[Jenkins5]

Hard to say a college hitter in homer run friendly league who only hit I believe 13 HRs in college with aluminum bat has 70-80 legit power. I hope he continues and has potential that he has shown this year but I have seen this plenty of times before out of college hitters in Helena and most have come to let us down. Hit at Wisconsin or go straight to A+ and mash again next year.... he will have my attention!

 

The fact that Garcia is so young and has showed as much as he has offensively and that he has ability to play all over the field makes him very exciting to follow.

 

I really hope one of the young high school kids can burst out. Lillis.... time to break out of Pikes shadow he casted over you all high school and break out!

[Mass Haas]

Gideon was amazing last year, but as a college guy at R+ ball, I'll wait to see how he does at A-ball before I get too excited.

 

Nice scouting process insights via Kyle on the Rattlers' site --

 

Frosty Microbrews: Power Hitter Ronnie Gideon

By Kyle Lobner / Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

[Outlander]

Amazing that Gideon had almost as many at bats at Helena than he had in his entire college career. He really is still an unknown and one of the guys I am most eager to see what he does in 2017.

[Eye Black]

I am going to go out on limb and say LHP Blake Lillis goes on to become the best professional pitcher taken from last year's St. Thomas Aquinas (Overland Park, KS) rotation. I just won't bet any beer money on it.

[clancyphile]

Amazing that Gideon had almost as many at bats at Helena than he had in his entire college career. He really is still an unknown and one of the guys I am most eager to see what he does in 2017.

 

Same here. He's flashed something at Helena. What it is, or how it turns out, I don't know. But it's worth a look.

 

For me, one sign of a sleeper is to see something stand out. I get fascinated - and want a closer look.

 

For Brent Suter, it was the very low ERAs at Colorado Springs. When most pitchers get a 5.00-something, he racked up a one in the 3.45 range.

 

For Tim Dillard way back, it was a lot of CGs at Brevard County.

 

One prospect I thought highly of (who flamed out) was Brian Passini - who posted a sub-3 ERA at El Paso.

 

With Michael Reed, it's a very good walk rate at several stops.

 

In this case, with Gideon, it was just the huge XBH totals.

[CheezWizHed]

Nice scouting process insights via Kyle on the Rattlers' site --

 

Frosty Microbrews: Power Hitter Ronnie Gideon

By Kyle Lobner / Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

 

Sankey started scouting Gideon when he was a freshman at Texas A&M in 2014 and added him to a list of players for the organization to follow when he played in the Northwoods League in 2015 (where he hit eight home runs in 34 games for the La Crosse Loggers) before meeting him for the first time in 2016.

 

Right in my own backyard and I still don't go see any games... I keep saying "this year"...

[Austin Tatious]

I posted this earlier, but Gideon has raw talent and there could be a parallel with Brandon Woodruff, who obviously has emerged as a top pitching prospect. Woodruff had injuries and worked out of the pen at Miss State. But there was raw talent, and the Brewers were able to land him in the 11th round. Gideon did not play much on a talented A & M team but again has raw talent, i.e., big power.

 

Gideon also grew up around baseball as his dad has been a bench coach for the Rockies, a Double A manager, etc. He could have some coach's son intangibles.

 

I liked in the article how Erickson was frank about Gideon getting in shape.

[colbyjack]

clancy, no Jeff Pickler?

 

I had the chance to see Gideon at the Northwoods League prospect showcase in Madison in early August of 2015. I was familiar with him due to him playing for Texas A&M, but the first thing that stood out was his size. He's a big boy, in some ways good (size/strength) and in some ways not so good (need for conditioning). He also was a righthanded hitter, which may not sound like a big deal, but he's the type of one-dimensional player that would benefit greatly from batting lefthanded, at least from a value/scouting perspective.

 

He did take a good BP and showed some bat speed. In the game he received a steady dose of breaking balls, which he did a good job laying off while also making it clear he can destroy fastballs. The high number of strikeouts point to this as well. I'm not trying to deter anyone's opinion of him, just providing some background. From Tony Festa to Michael Ratteree I always need to see more from college hitters that enjoy big seasons in Helena before getting too excited about them.

 

I do agree that Gabriel Garcia has the highest upside of the 2016 draft sleepers. Big arm/power combo that obviously play up if he's able to stick behind the plate moving forward.

[clancyphile]

clancy, no Jeff Pickler?

 

I had the chance to see Gideon at the Northwoods League prospect showcase in Madison in early August of 2015. I was familiar with him due to him playing for Texas A&M, but the first thing that stood out was his size. He's a big boy, in some ways good (size/strength) and in some ways not so good (need for conditioning). He also was a righthanded hitter, which may not sound like a big deal, but he's the type of one-dimensional player that would benefit greatly from batting lefthanded, at least from a value/scouting perspective.

 

He did take a good BP and showed some bat speed. In the game he received a steady dose of breaking balls, which he did a good job laying off while also making it clear he can destroy fastballs. The high number of strikeouts point to this as well. I'm not trying to deter anyone's opinion of him, just providing some background. From Tony Festa to Michael Ratteree I always need to see more from college hitters that enjoy big seasons in Helena before getting too excited about them.

 

I do agree that Gabriel Garcia has the highest upside of the 2016 draft sleepers. Big arm/power combo that obviously play up if he's able to stick behind the plate moving forward.

 

Pickler was one of the first I took a real liking to, largely due to his walk rate and the fact he also was pretty good on the basepaths, IIRC.

 

Garcia has value sticking behind the plate, obviously. I think offensively, he's very dynamic. That said, the fact he also spent time at third, second, and first is also very intriguing, and part of me wants to see if he can handle the outfield as well.

[CheeseheadInQC]

While the Helena caveat is obviously in play again, Nathan Rodriguez had a solid hitting start to his pro career as well and is supposedly a pretty decent defender. Unless they have one of the higher profile guys from last year's draft skip Helena, he's probably the No. 1 catcher for the Rattlers next season.

[gregmag]

I'm not sure I can remember a draft when so many guys after the season at least retained some chance of being good. To put it another way, we have an awful lot of 2016 draftees who didn't immediately prove that they were stiffs. If one or two of these sleepers ultimately amounts to something, this draft will probably end up looking really good in five years.

[clancyphile]

I'm not sure I can remember a draft when so many guys after the season at least retained some chance of being good. To put it another way, we have an awful lot of 2016 draftees who didn't immediately prove that they were stiffs. If one or two of these sleepers ultimately amounts to something, this draft will probably end up looking really good in five years.

 

I agree. To me, the Brewers drafts have had one big weakness: They miss a lot between rounds two and ten.

 

Look at who did make the majors in rounds 2-10 from 2000 on:

2000: none - but the Brewers did get Corey Hart in the 11th round

2001: JJ Hardy (2nd, starting SS for a few years), Brad Nelson (4th), and Dennis Sarfate (9th)

2002: Tom Wilhelmsen (7th) made it, but not with the Brewers. Josh Murray DID win the Bachelorette.

2003: Tony Gwynn Jr. (2nd) hit the majors, but was traded and had his best years elsewhere

2004: Yovanni Gallardo (2nd) was a solid #2 starter, then traded to Texas for an OK haul, Angel Salome (5th) had a cup of coffee

2005: Mat Gamel (3rd) was derailed by injuries, Michael Brantley (6th) put up good years after being part of the Sabathia trade), Jemile Weeks (8th) never signed, and Steve Garrison (10th) had a cup of coffee

2006: Cole Gillespie (3rd) was a AAAA OF, Mike McClendon (10th) had a few short runs.

2007: Jon Lucroy (2nd) was only the best catcher in franchise history, Eric Farris (3rd) had a cup of coffee, Caleb Gindl (4th) probably deserved a longer look as a reserve, Eric Fryer (10th) was a AAAA catcher.

2008: Logan Schafer (3rd) was a 5th outfielder, Erik Komatsu (8th) got a cup of coffee.

2009: Josh Prince (3rd) got a cup of coffee, Hiram Burgos (6th) had a few starts but could still make it, Khris Davis (7th) was a huge power bat.

2010: Jimmy Nelson (2nd) is a decent #3 starter, Tyler Thornburg (3rd) is our closer, Yadiel Rivera (9th) is a backup infielder.

2011: Jorge Lopez (2nd) is trying to fight back after a rough year in CO Springs, Michael Reed (5th) looks to be a backup, and David Goforth (7th) is a AAAA bullpen arm.

2012: Tyler Wagner (4th) was part of that Jean Segura/Isan Diaz trade, Damien Magnifico (5th) looks to be a bullpen arm.

2013: Garrett Cooper (6th) looks to be a Lyle Overbay type of offensive player at first.

2014: Cy Sneed (3rd) made Villar a Brewer. Troy Stokes (4th) is showing some very intriguing OBP and speed combo.

2015: Cody Ponce (2nd) is a good rotation prospect, Demi Orimoloye (4th) has very intriguing raw talent.

2016: Lucas Erceg (2nd) seems to be a very good 3B prospect, Trey York (9th) showed a fascinating mix of OBP and speed, and Mario Feliciano (2nd-CB) and Payton Henry (6th) are vying for second-best catcher in the 2016 draft class behind Gabriel Garcia.

 

I bolded the real hits, in my opinion. Nine in 16 years, counting those who got traded for top prospects or impact players. Not exactly what the team can afford. 2010 was the best, netting a #3 starter and a closer, while 2007 netted the Brewers the best catcher in their history. They need to have two solid hits each year from rounds 2-10, defined as contributors to the big league club. If Lopez and Reed rebound, 2011 could end up being one of those years. and 2016 looks VERY promising in that regard (netting a starting 3B, a contender at 2B, and two contenders for the #2 catcher spot).

 

The steals in the later rounds - players like Corey Hart (11th round, 2000), Manny Parra (26th round, 2001), Lorenzo Cain (17th round, 2004), Scooter Gennett (16th round, 2009), Jason Rogers (32nd round, 2010), Brent Suter (31st round, 2012), Brandon Woodruff (11th round, 2013), Mitch Ghelfi (28th round, 2015), Jon Perrin (27th round, 2015), Gabriel Garcia (14h round, 2016), Weston Wilson (17th round, 2016), and Ronnie Gideon (23rd round, 2016) - are where the Brewers can really clean up. Hitting there two or three times a draft, even if it's a bench player or bullpen arm, means that the Crew doesn't have to sign a free agent to fill that hole. Potential starting pitchers like Suter, Woodruff, and Perrin, though... even if it's the back end (3-5), or a position player who starts regularly... that's a HUGE win.

[MrTPlush]

Cy Sneed was traded in return for Jonathan Villar.

[clancyphile]

Cy Sneed was traded in return for Jonathan Villar.

 

My mistake. I'll fix that, but it makes him an even bigger hit, IMO.

[CheezWizHed]

Mike Fiers was drafted in the 22nd round of 2009.

 

Manny Parra (26th round, 2001), Lorenzo Cain (17th round, 2004)

 

These guys come with an asterisk in that they were Draft and Follow candidates. Where we drafted them and they played a CC for another year before we signed them to a higher signing bonus (more in line with a #2-10 pick).

 

Scooter Gennett (16th round, 2009)

Similarly, he was signed to a bonus more commensurate to a higher pick.

 

Not that it really matters, but it shows they scouted the talent in the #2-10 range, but other factors prevented them being drafted higher. And the Brewers used the system to their advantage to gain a #2-10 talent in a lower round. Pretty much like Chad McClanahan this year.

[AKCheesehead]

I have not had very good luck finding much, if any, scouting reports on the guys from the lower levels of the draft. Several of the pitchers taken in late 20s-30s rounds of 2016 put up interesting numbers in Arizona and Pioneer, fwiw. Enough to pique my interest in that segment of last year's class moving forward.

[clancyphile]

I have not had very good luck finding much, if any, scouting reports on the guys from the lower levels of the draft. Several of the pitchers taken in late 20s-30s rounds of 2016 put up interesting numbers in Arizona and Pioneer, fwiw. Enough to pique my interest in that segment of last year's class moving forward.

 

Really, the numbers are all I usually have, not being near any of the minor-league teams.

 

So, I look for anything intriguing, and if it catches my eye...

[CheeseheadInQC]

I have not had very good luck finding much, if any, scouting reports on the guys from the lower levels of the draft. Several of the pitchers taken in late 20s-30s rounds of 2016 put up interesting numbers in Arizona and Pioneer, fwiw. Enough to pique my interest in that segment of last year's class moving forward.

 

It's going to be tough for the late-round college pitchers, especially early in the season, simply because of a lack of opportunity. Because of the backlog of pitching prospects in A+ and the success of last year's college pitching class, there's a distinct possibility that the Wisconsin pitching staff includes only one or two pitchers who finished last season pitching at the rookie ball level in the Brewers' organization. (How about a tandem group of Burnes, Zack Brown, Webb, Supak, Desguin, Pennington, Yamamoto, Kirby, Missaki and Jankins with Sanchez, Drossner and Daniel Brown in the bullpen? Plus there's still Fox, who might get a spot over some of the later-round guys.)

[MrTPlush]

You have to remember that 3 of those picks usually are to save bonus pool money so obviously right off the bat you already have a poor success rate.