Braun to Astros?

[billymac]

Just going off this article from last year and the Astros needs for a LF still and Luhnow stating this week he wanted to start a match under the hot stove and mentioning he wanted to be very aggressive this winter. Its not necessarily the west coast or Miami, but its pretty much in the middle if that counts for anything....

 

http://www.espn975.com/ryan-braun-linked-to-houston-astros-via-trade/

 

I realize it would take him waiving his no trade clause, but that could be one dangerous lineup with him in the middle of it. Correa, Altuve, Springer, Braun, Bregman, Gattis.

 

Houston has a deep farm system even after selling off some of their top prospects the last 2 years. Would a David Paulino(SP) 22 years old(mentioned as frontline starter), JD Davis(3B) 23 years old, and a lower level arm do it(Stearns I bet knows all the good ones)? Frances Martes is their #1 prospect, but several have said that Paulino(6'7") is pitching much better than him right now this fall and he would likely see the major leagues in 2017. JD Davis has 49 HR's combined the last 2 years and could see the majors this year as well and possibly fill the 3B slot that our organization needs, he is also at least #3 in their organizational 3B depth chart behind Bregman and Moran. Houston's system would still be stocked for other moves that they need and they have their LF and #3 or #4 hitter for the next 4 years.

 

Free's up one of our last 2 multi-year contracts and gives us 2 positions we need, frontline starters and 3B.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, wish I knew what Braun is thinking. Is he expanding the list of teams he would approve or not? That's the big question. Because if he opens it up, I think there are a few teams who would be players, and yea Houston would be one of them.

 

Something keeps telling me if it's not the Dodgers, it will be the Braves.

[MrTPlush]

It didn't get much talk, but Braun already blocked a trade to the Braves. Not sure how far into the process it was, but Chipper Jones reached out to convince him and Braun had no interest in the Braves.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm aware, but times change. I think it would take Mark A going to him and letting him know a Dodgers trade isn't going to happen. (If in fact it comes to that.) As long as the Brewers and Dodgers are talking, I don't see Braun expanding the list at all.

[MrTPlush]

I'm aware, but times change. I think it would take Mark A going to him and letting him know a Dodgers trade isn't going to happen. (If it fact it comes to that.) As long as the Brewers and Dodgers are talking, I don't see Braun expanding the list at all.

 

I don't think he is going to expand his list for the Braves. What exactly do they offer him? He has to move his family etc. to play for another loser? I think Braun genuinely likes Milwaukee and it would have to be a really nice destination for him to leave. That and/or a team actually primed to win.

 

It's isn't like he is demanding to be traded or even wants it.

[JosephC]

I've thought the Astros were the best match for the last couple months.

 

The have a middle-of-the-lineup and outfield opening. They could also use a veteran presence in the lineup. They have a pretty good left fielder prospect ready to go in Derek Fisher, but it sounds like they really view their corner outfielders of the future to be George Springer and A-ball prospect Kyle Tucker. The good thing about this is the Astros do not have the DH position tied up, so Braun could play left field for them in 2017 and 2018 and if Tucker is the real deal then Braun can slide into the DH role when Tucker is ready for the big leagues. And if Braun is wearing an Astro uniform, then Fisher is a likely candidate to throw into a trade with the Brewers.

 

The Astros have very little money tied up, but on the flip side, they aren't New York, Los Angeles or Boston so they might be more flexible with Milwaukee and give up a little better prospect return with the more money the Brewers throw in.

 

The Astros also have very good depth in their system. Definitely enough to interest Stearns even if the top name in the return is Fisher (which means the Astros hold on to all their young MLB talent and the top 4 prospects in their system according to MLB.com).

 

I can't see Braun vetoing a deal unless he's trying to force a trade to the Dodgers or Angels. But looking at the lack of talent in the Angels organization, he probably already knows that he's not likely to end up there. If the Dodgers do something like sign Cepedes or trade for another outfielder...then Braun will know he's locked out of the LA market. Then why play for a rebuilding team like the Brewers when you can go to a top 10 television market in the south and play for a contender that has a lot of young talent? He'll leverage the no-trade clause to get the option year turned into a player option, but I don't think the no-trade will be a big hang-up.

 

I'd see an Astros deal looking something like:

 

Astros get:

Ryan Braun (option year turns into a player option in return for Braun waiving the no-trade clause)

14 million dollars

 

Brewers get:

OF-Derek Fisher

RHP-Albert Abreu

RHP-Franklin Perez

1B-Yordan Alvarez

 

Getting 14 million from the Brewers would bring the Astros commitment to 5 years, 77 million for Braun. At 15.4 million per season for a hitter like Braun...seems like 1 "top 100 prospect," 2 "organizational top 10 prospects" and a "fringe prospect" would make for a pretty even deal.

[sheetskout]

If they could swing Martes for Braun + cash I'd be in immediately.

[Outlander]

I'm just going to assume if it isn't a team from his no trade list that he isn't going anywhere. Once he gets his 10/5 rights I'm assuming Brewers for life so there must be some urgency to get a trade done this winter.

[Madhawk23]

I think any deal involving Braun to the Astros would have to start with either Martes or Paulino, right? My opinion, is that we really need to get one high end arm in a deal for Braun, and preferably have that arm be close to the major leagues - to mitigate some of that risk. I'll go:

 

Astros get:

Ryan Braun (option year turns into a player option in return for Braun waiving the no-trade clause)

14 million dollars

 

Brewers get:

RHP - Francis Martes or David Paulino

3B - JD Davis

1B-Yordan Alvarez

[MadThinker88]

Before the Brewers spends 1 second of effort/ resources on a deal of Braun to the Astros, they need to know for certain that he would accepts a deal to go there. Otherwise they learned nothing from the Lucroy fiasco at the deadline.

 

Deals do not come together in a single 10 minute call. They are a process. Sometimes very long and difficult. Working on a deal that gets torpedoed by a player decision is a huge waste of time/ effort/ resources. Not just for your club, but the other club as well.

 

If the Brewers know Braun is willing to go there (having something in writing to that fact would be even better), they and the Astros can engage in full effort to try and reach a deal. A repeat of the Lucroy fiasco (deal reached, employee declines to go) would be huge egg on the face of the Brewers. One that might give the rest of baseball pause when engaging the Brewers in trade talks.

[Madhawk23]

Before the Brewers spends 1 second of effort/ resources on a deal of Braun to the Astros, they need to know for certain that he would accepts a deal to go there. Otherwise they learned nothing from the Lucroy fiasco at the deadline.

 

Deals do not come together in a single 10 minute call. They are a process. Sometimes very long and difficult. Working on a deal that gets torpedoed by a player decision is a huge waste of time/ effort/ resources. Not just for your club, but the other club as well.

 

If the Brewers know Braun is willing to go there (having something in writing to that fact would be even better), they and the Astros can engage in full effort to try and reach a deal. A repeat of the Lucroy fiasco (deal reached, employee declines to go) would be huge egg on the face of the Brewers. One that might give the rest of baseball pause when engaging the Brewers in trade talks.

 

I don't think you are going to have anyone here that disagrees with you. I think we are all just antsy fans that are living in this hypothetical "dream world" in which Braun would agree to waive his no-trade clause to Houston. Otherwise yes - there is no need for Stearns and Co. to have any kind of dialogue with the Astros concerning Braun.

[monty57]

If money means anything to him, Braun could save millions of dollars in taxes by going to Texas over Wisconsin or California.

[MrTPlush]

If money means anything to him, Braun could save millions of dollars in taxes by going to Texas over Wisconsin or California.

 

Probably not a huge consideration. He seems to live a pretty casual life for someone rolling in $100mil+. I honestly think it comes down to location and then well after that winning. You are going to be pretty hard pressed to get him to accept a deal to the Astros. In his mind it is probably Miami, west coast, or Milwaukee. He has a family and they like Milwaukee. To get him to leave it will actually have to be a place he wants to be outside of just playing baseball. I don't really see him waiving the no trade clause.

 

Also for the record a move to Texas wouldn't save him all that much. Probably about $3mil-$5mil saved from playing home games in Texas instead of Wisconsin. Of course he would be playing away games in different states which could/would move that number higher/lower.

[monty57]

If money means anything to him, Braun could save millions of dollars in taxes by going to Texas over Wisconsin or California.

 

Probably not a huge consideration. He seems to live a pretty casual life for someone rolling in $100mil+. I honestly think it comes down to location and then well after that winning. You are going to be pretty hard pressed to get him to accept a deal to the Astros. In his mind it is probably Miami, west coast, or Milwaukee. He has a family and they like Milwaukee. To get him to leave it will actually have to be a place he wants to be outside of just playing baseball. I don't really see him waiving the no trade clause.

 

Also for the record a move to Texas wouldn't save him all that much. Probably about $3mil-$5mil saved from playing home games in Texas instead of Wisconsin. Of course he would be playing away games in different states which could/would move that number higher/lower.

 

I guess we have a different opinion of what "all that much" is :-)

 

Players do pay state tax based on the state in which they are playing each game, but just on the 81 home games, a player making $100,000,000 would save (simple computation) $3,825,000. Wisconsin is a high tax state, with a top rate of 7.65% vs 0% for Texas.

 

This doesn't seem to be Braun's biggest concern, but it could be considered.

[MrTPlush]

If money means anything to him, Braun could save millions of dollars in taxes by going to Texas over Wisconsin or California.

 

Probably not a huge consideration. He seems to live a pretty casual life for someone rolling in $100mil+. I honestly think it comes down to location and then well after that winning. You are going to be pretty hard pressed to get him to accept a deal to the Astros. In his mind it is probably Miami, west coast, or Milwaukee. He has a family and they like Milwaukee. To get him to leave it will actually have to be a place he wants to be outside of just playing baseball. I don't really see him waiving the no trade clause.

 

Also for the record a move to Texas wouldn't save him all that much. Probably about $3mil-$5mil saved from playing home games in Texas instead of Wisconsin. Of course he would be playing away games in different states which could/would move that number higher/lower.

 

I guess we have a different opinion of what "all that much" is :-)

 

$4mil to someone that has probably made $250mil+ between contracts/endorsements over his career...yah pretty minimal.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Astros traded for McCann and singed Reddick today. Astros wont be trading for Braun. Now an interesting destination would be the Yankees who are looking for a DH but don't want to pay as much as it would take to get the top bats in FA. Yankees prospects, already deeper than the Brewers just got deeper with the McCann trade.

 

Braun + $ for Rutherford & Abreu (who they just got from Houston).

[MadThinker88]

Astros traded for McCann and singed Reddick today. Astros wont be trading for Braun. Now an interesting destination would be the Yankees who are looking for a DH but don't want to pay as much as it would take to get the top bats in FA. Yankees prospects, already deeper than the Brewers just got deeper with the McCann trade.

 

Braun + $ for Rutherford & Abreu (who they just got from Houston).

 

I agree the moves made by the Astros today likely ends the interest in getting Braun.

However, I struggle with the idea of the Yankees (for Braun).

 

The Yankees are simply getting themselves ready for Bryce Harper (Yankee fan growing up) and they have a loaded farm system ready to yield talent at multiple non-pitching positions. What they really need is pitching and if I'm the Brewers I'm trying to send them Garza (with Wisconsin product J.P. Feyereisen being a piece I want back)..

[MKE81]

Astros traded for McCann and singed Reddick today. Astros wont be trading for Braun. Now an interesting destination would be the Yankees who are looking for a DH but don't want to pay as much as it would take to get the top bats in FA. Yankees prospects, already deeper than the Brewers just got deeper with the McCann trade.

 

Braun + $ for Rutherford & Abreu (who they just got from Houston).

Pass. I'll take the Dodgers deal without even knowing who the two quality prospects are given no money was reportedly going to LA and Puig has already proven his AS talent. I'll go with the known commodity vs 3yrs away Rutherford. Puig performs and you're getting two great prospects for him on top of the two we are already getting for Braun plus whatever we get for McCarthy.

[JosephC]

Disappointed by the Astros moves today. Signing Reddick sure seems to eliminate Houston as a possible destination for Braun.

 

Weary of dealing with the Yankees at all. Remember when they wanted Cameron badly, worked out a Cameron for Cabrera swap and at the last minute insisted that the Brewers take on half of Cameron's salary. Then they tried to dump Kei Igawa on the Brewers.

[adambr2]

The Reddick signing isn't the worst thing in the world for us if we're interested in trading Braun. It takes a FA outfielder off the market, and definitely solidifies Braun's value as he's obviously a much higher quality player than Reddick.

 

I doubt Braun to the Astros was ever going to happen anyway. I get the feeling that Braun is perfectly content to ride out his career in Milwaukee if he doesn't get his destination of choice. I don't think he's going to agree to go just anywhere simply for our convenience or for the sake of playing for a contender.

[pacopete4]

Dodgers or bust. It's fun to play what if but that's where I think this trade starts and ends.

[MrTPlush]

Dodgers or bust. It's fun to play what if but that's where I think this trade starts and ends.

 

I don't think it is that straight forward. I am sure there will still be another few teams that make some serious effort to try and work out a trade. I expect it to be Dodgers or bust, but I think there is a chance a different team could acquire him. Dodgers make the most sense by far, but just because they got close to a trade doesn't mean they are the only option.

[pacopete4]

Dodgers or bust. It's fun to play what if but that's where I think this trade starts and ends.

 

I don't think it is that straight forward. I am sure there will still be another few teams that make some serious effort to try and work out a trade. I expect it to be Dodgers or bust, but I think there is a chance a different team could acquire him. Dodgers make the most sense by far, but just because they got close to a trade doesn't mean they are the only option.

 

My statement was more towards the willingness of Braun to go to another team. The teams he has listed (Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins and Padres) aren't prime trading partners for the Brewers. The Dodgers are the only ones who make realistic sense in this matter. At least to me.

[billymac]

Are the Astros really going to go into the season starting Aoki in LF? Aoki is not terrible, but he's 35 now, SB's way down and he hasn't played more than 132 games in the last 3 years(132 in 2014, 93 in 2015 and 118 in 2016) and has an OPS in the lower .700's. The next 2 years the Astros are in a really good position to make a run with the core below. They could have a lineup of:

 

Springer CF

Correa SS

Altuve 2B

Braun LF

Beltran DH/1B

Gattis DH/1B

McCann C

Bregman 3B

P

 

That is a really good lineup. Their pitching staff is together for the next 2 years with Keuchel, McHugh, McCulleres, Morton and FIers with Musgrove/Devinski/Martes or Paulino stepping in.

 

I still think Houston is the perfect place for Braun with Dodgers out of the equation and no one else on his no trade making sense unless Giants want to fill their LF hole.

 

I think Houston makes a run in the first half, Braun waives his no trade to be moved their with cash for Martes or Paulino and a position prospect, we can take Aoki with his contract back as well.

 

2019 they will have a number of players up for Free Agency.