Hypothetical: 3 moves a front office focusing on winning in 2017 could do to contend

[reillymcshane]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but is Justin Turner's perceived value overinflated because he plays for the Dodgers and he's coming off a good year? I mean, is he a glitzy name in a manner similar to how Boston, the Yankees, and sometimes the Mets pay ridiculous salaries to keep guys they like whereas most any other market -- most teams' "real" market -- wouldn't pay some of those guys anywhere near what those 3 teams pay. It's about the most extreme example, but did the Yankees really think any other team was going to pay anywhere near the $25-ishM/yr. they paid A-Rod on his last extension (or was it an opt-out & re-sign?)?

 

Turner has a 136 OPS+ over the last three years. Last year was actually his worse year of the three mostly because he tanked hard for the first couple months. Has nothing to do with market. He's one of the best free agent hitters this year.

Turner has been really good the last few years. He'd be a great guy to have, but I'd be wary as well. He'll be 32 in a week, so he's starting to get to that phase where he could easily decline. And he's had some back issues - always a bit of a concern.

 

Honestly, he'd be a great player to have if we were set on winning the next couple of years. Hits well, plays good defense, etc. But I just don't know if we are there yet. No matter, the guy is a good player.

[StearnsFTW]

No, and No on the idea. First off Santana, Hader, and Bickford have got to be an overpay. This is a sure fire #2 in Quintana. Not an Ace.

 

Second, Santana is a major value here that seems to be disregarded.

 

Let me throw this back at JBriggs, because I can definitely smell his disgust for Santana and the reason Khris Davis was dealt, by the fact he wants to rid of him. I think Santana is an Allstar in the waiting as a batter. Certainly the best bat on the ML team past Braun forthcoming in OPS. Removing him from the team to me reduces the Brewers' chance of competing in 2017 moreso than adding Quintana. Every day Player vs every 5th day. Santana finished off September with 7HRs as a 23year old. From the 8th game on, his OPS never got below .700, even with his injuries. And finished just below .800OPS at .792.

 

For Reverse Reference. It took Davis til game 25 to crack the .700OPS mark and #37 before he stayed above it the rest of the season. Davis was 25 before even making it to the Brewers. Hit that 10HRs in Sept at age 27. Had 8HRs in Sept this year.

 

How does Santana not grow on you or anyone else to like? 23years old, 7HRs in Sept when finally getting regular playing time. Imagine what and where he can be by age 27? Whereas Davis is 5'10, Santana 6'5"...Leverage does some major things, ask Richie Sexson.

 

What a thievery by the White Sox!

 

 

Oh and going to dismiss some of Justin Turner signing since he is a QO receiver. Would cost the team the 2nd pick they have. TBD when the lottery is handled.

 

If Quintana is traded, it will be for a heck of a lot more than Bickford/Hader/Santana type prospects. He's got a great contract and is a damn good pitcher.

 

I would expect it to be a couple top 50 type prospects and more.

[MKE81]

 

Major value? I like the dude, but he does not have major value.

 

I'll remind you of that comment when he gets his full season's chance. Keon Broxton had nothing on the ceiling Santana has, and look at his emergence over the course of just one year.

 

OK? What does that prove? I could say that about any player. He doesn't have major value right now. Could he with a full healthy season? Sure, but that really isn't saying much.

You can't simply factor in his current value and call it a day when analyzing this hypothetical. Hader is going to be equal to or better than Quintana (3.29 ERA past 3yrs with 7.4K rate) and he's 5yrs younger. Santana is ex-Top 100 and was great at the AAA level with extensive play there and he's 24 next year. Worst case he should be 255/350/800. And no, that can't be said about just anybody because not just anybody has that ceiling. Bickford, if scouts are right, will be a mid-rotation or high leverage reliever. BrewCrew is clearly speaking from the perspective of what these players can be in the near future, as was I in my comment. So, hypothetically, we want to give up potentially a better SP, solid RF, worst case high leverage reliever and Scooter for a SP that has a 3.29 ERA the past 3yrs who's 28 next year. He's not an ace. He's just really good and consistent. I don't see the point at all of the hypothetical offering. (creating hypothetical's are fun and good for discussion but only if it's logical to what we're doing now and moving forward. what's proposed makes zero sense both right now and for the future).

[MrTPlush]

OK? What does that prove? I could say that about any player. He doesn't have major value right now. Could he with a full healthy season? Sure, but that really isn't saying much.

You can't simply factor in his current value and call it a day when analyzing this hypothetical.

 

Actually...yes...yes I can. Hader's current value is that of a Top 50 prospect, with some sizable risk, and totally unproven. Trying to say he is going to be equal to Quintana at worst is inaccurate and wishful thinking. You are trying to put there value as if they are nice bets to hit those ceilings and in reality they will all likely fail to reach their ceilings and most prospects totally flop compared to their ceilings.

 

Sorry but I am just looking at it from a trade value perspective. The value you are dreaming on in the future is not what is currently there. If you want that "major value" for any of those guys they best actually produce at the MLB level. Prospects are prospects...and lack major value.

[monty57]

If I'm going to give up a draft pick and sign a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 to a 5-year, big money deal, he'd better be someone better than Justin Turner. I don't think whoever signs Turner is going to be happy with how it ends up.

 

As to the prospect-for-good-pitcher trade, that's kind of the opposite of how Stearns seems to work. He likes to get guys early and let them grow into really valuable commodities. At some point, when we have a good MLB roster and so many good prospects that we're likely to start losing some to Rule 5 (like the situation the Astros were in in 2015), then we'll probably see some prospects traded. Until then, I doubt we'll see our top prospects getting traded away.

[adambr2]

I know this was just done for fun and I'm not ripping on the OP for making hypotheticals, but I think it's worth repeating in this thread that going for it in 2017 would be a huge mistake. Even if all these moves could be made, while it certainly would improve our 2017, it wouldn't put us within sniffing distance of the Cubs. So our best case scenario would be a 1 game playoff to even get to the final 4 in the NL. And that would still require a heck of a lot to go right. Meanwhile, we'd lose 17 cost controlled years of Santana, Bickford, and Hader and whatever they end up becoming.

 

It's actually a really good time to be rebuilding and stockpiling the farm in the NL Central. The Cubs have a couple more years at the top and there's no one in the division that can do anything in the short-term about it. In a few years when they start seeing the rising costs of their young players and their aging rotation needs a makeover, we may start seeing some cracks in the armor and that will be a good time potentially for us to make a move, which should also be the same time our young players start coming into their own.

[IndyCrew]

Why don't we re-frame the question to take out the argument of whether we should or shouldn't go for it this year?

 

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

[MrTPlush]

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

 

Resign

[pacopete4]

Why don't we re-frame the question to take out the argument of whether we should or shouldn't go for it this year?

 

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

 

 

Trade away everyone of talent in the minors for the best players you can possibly get back at the major league level. I'd start with pitching. As much of it as I could.

[And That]

I don't know who they would be, but I would trade for/sign a third baseman, a catcher, and a starting pitcher, and hope like hell the starting pitchers already on the roster manage to not suck.

[trwi7]

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

 

1. Sign Turner

2. Sign Jensen

3. Throw the entire farm system at the White Sox for Sale and Quintana and see if they bite.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

 

Resign

 

You still have two more moves TPlush

[StearnsFTW]

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

 

1. Sign Turner

2. Sign Jensen

3. Throw the entire farm system at the White Sox for Sale and Quintana and see if they bite.

 

Pretty much.

 

And that still wouldn't make the playoffs most likely.

[monty57]

Why don't we re-frame the question to take out the argument of whether we should or shouldn't go for it this year?

 

Let's assume, for fun, MA told Stearns that he MUST make the playoffs this year to keep his job. What three moves do you make to get this to happen?

 

Sign Bautista, Encarnacion and Jansen.

 

Make trwi's White Sox trade for Sale and Quintana

 

Lineup:

 

1) Villar 2B

2) Broxton/Brinson CF

3) Braun LF

4) Bautista RF

5) Encarnacion 3B

6) Carter 1B

7) Arcia SS

8) Susac/Pina C

9) Pitcher

 

SP) Sale

SP) Quintana

SP) Davies

SP #4/5) Two of Nelson, Peralta, Anderson, Guerra, Garza

 

CL) Jansen

SU) Thornburg

Make up rest of pen from what we have

 

If Attanasio wants the playoffs so badly, he can put a lien against some of his assets for what would probably be a $140-150M or so payroll. That lineup ought to have a shot at the playoffs for a year or two before everything would collapse and we'd be horrible for the next decade or so.

[billymac]

Essentially pulling an AJ Preller in San Diego a few years ago, look how that turned out.

[monty57]

Essentially pulling an AJ Preller in San Diego a few years ago, look how that turned out.

 

I thought of him too, but I would suggest against trying to field a team with only outfielders on the roster :-)

[MrTPlush]

Essentially pulling an AJ Preller in San Diego a few years ago, look how that turned out.

 

I thought of him too, but I would suggest against trying to field a team with only outfielders on the roster :-)

 

Saddest part is the fact the three outfielders were HORRIBLE defensively.

[reillymcshane]

1. Trade a bunch of stuff to Detroit for Verlander and Miggy Cabrera. Don't know what it would take.

 

2. Sign Justin Turner to play 3B

 

3. Sign Castro or someone other catcher

 

I just more than doubled our payroll. We have an elite left handed bat that will give us one of the most exciting lineups in baseball. We have an ace pitcher to headline our rotation.

 

I've manage to cripple our finances for years and probably emptied out 1/2 of our farm system.

 

It sounds a lot like 2011.

[adambr2]

Obviously I've mentioned this, but before I get into my plan I'll disclaim it just to clarify that I think it'd be a bad idea.

 

That said, you pretty much need to follow the 2011 template like Reilly said. Make every prospect available, including Arcia, trade for win now pieces to rebuilding clubs. You need to come out of this with at least a borderline ace and another good starter, like 2011. Keep Braun. Outbid the field for Turner. Need to find a 2B or C somewhere too.

 

If we did all this, we could probably contend in 2017, for a Wild Card. Maybe again in 2018 depending on the contracts for the pieces we acquire.

 

Inevitably the bottom would fall back out again at some point and we'd be back in pre-rebuilding status.

[FVBrewerFan]

My problem, not yours, but just reading these ideas makes me angry. I know it's a game of "what if" but it still bothers me to even suggest it ; ) Part of it is because I still hear things like this from various people, even some in the media to one degree or another.

 

But I'll play too. Promote Brinson first, then sell the entire Sky Sox organization to the Dodgers for Kershaw and Urias. The stadium, uniforms, concessions, players, coaches...everything. Throw in Garza as the icing on the cake.

[MrTPlush]

You can't follow the template for 2011 because we don't have a team like we did in 2010 to build on. Trading for Greinke/Marcum was nothing compared to what one would need to do to succeed in 2017.

[brewcrewdue80]

No, and No on the idea. First off Santana, Hader, and Bickford have got to be an overpay. This is a sure fire #2 in Quintana. Not an Ace.

 

Second, Santana is a major value here that seems to be disregarded.

 

Let me throw this back at JBriggs, because I can definitely smell his disgust for Santana and the reason Khris Davis was dealt, by the fact he wants to rid of him. I think Santana is an Allstar in the waiting as a batter. Certainly the best bat on the ML team past Braun forthcoming in OPS. Removing him from the team to me reduces the Brewers' chance of competing in 2017 moreso than adding Quintana. Every day Player vs every 5th day. Santana finished off September with 7HRs as a 23year old. From the 8th game on, his OPS never got below .700, even with his injuries. And finished just below .800OPS at .792.

 

For Reverse Reference. It took Davis til game 25 to crack the .700OPS mark and #37 before he stayed above it the rest of the season. Davis was 25 before even making it to the Brewers. Hit that 10HRs in Sept at age 27. Had 8HRs in Sept this year.

 

How does Santana not grow on you or anyone else to like? 23years old, 7HRs in Sept when finally getting regular playing time. Imagine what and where he can be by age 27? Whereas Davis is 5'10, Santana 6'5"...Leverage does some major things, ask Richie Sexson.

 

What a thievery by the White Sox!

 

 

Oh and going to dismiss some of Justin Turner signing since he is a QO receiver. Would cost the team the 2nd pick they have. TBD when the lottery is handled.

 

If Quintana is traded, it will be for a heck of a lot more than Bickford/Hader/Santana type prospects. He's got a great contract and is a damn good pitcher.

 

I would expect it to be a couple top 50 type prospects and more.

 

You do know Hader is #33 and Bickford is #53 currently according to MLB?

And Santana preseason 2015 was #73? And already playing on the ML team helping it?

 

This is why I can't take offering up Santana in trade. Brinson has nothing approaching Santana's Ceiling. In the hypothetical, would you trade Brinson, Hader, and Bickford for Quintana?

[hurricanecrush]

I don't even want to imagine what Briggs is doing as he reads these proposals...

[MrTPlush]

Brinson has nothing approaching Santana's Ceiling.

 

Brinson has a higher ceiling than Santana...pretty hard to argue. Both of them have a ton of offensive potential, but Brinson has far better defense and plays a primium position. Now whether you want to argue the likelyhood of him hitting that ceiling, fine, go ahead.

[adambr2]

You can't follow the template for 2011 because we don't have a team like we did in 2010 to build on. Trading for Greinke/Marcum was nothing compared to what one would need to do to succeed in 2017.

 

I think its important to note that every post suggesting the 2011 template also stated that signing Turner was another necessary part of the process. You're not going to get to a 96 win Brewer team next year no matter what you do. But following the 2011 template if you added two starters the quality of Greinke and Marcum 2011, and add Turner at 3rd, I think you could realistically expect to be around a 85-87 win Wild Card contender.