Braun to Red Sox?

[reillymcshane]

What are the chances we could get either DeLeon or Alvarez from the Dodgers in a Braun deal? Do we think that one of these two guys were in the initial talks before the 8/31 deadline?

Personally, I say no.

 

But every time this question is asked, you have to ask 'How much money (if anything) are the Brewers willing to include in a trade?" Your return is going to be massively different if you send them $1M as opposed to $40M.

 

Alvarez has top of the rotation potential. DeLeon is ready for the majors, but doesn't have quite the upside - more mid-rotation (which is still pretty sweet). I'm skeptical of the Dodgers trading a guy they can insert into the rotation this year (DeLeon) or a guy they think has all star potential (Alvarez - who they forked over $16M for just a year ago) - unless it's for someone like Chris Sale.

 

I should add that I am more skeptical than some people about Braun's value due to his advancing age, recent history of injuries and his PED stuff. It's not that I don't think Braun has value, I just think it makes people much more wary than if you have someone without those issues.

 

But that's just me. It only takes one team to fall in love with a player. So you never know.

 

Honestly, the guy I really like in the Dodgers system is Walker Buehler. He had the potential to be the top pick in the 2015 draft, but he hurt his elbow and needed TJ surgery. Dodgers took him late in the 1st round of 2015. He would have been a perfect buy low guy. But he was supposedly throwing near 100 when he finally debuted this past August. I bet he starts popping up on Top 100 lists even though he's only pitched a few innings as a pro.

[MrTPlush]

"Take your chances on Braun having a big first half."

 

What exactly is that doing? I don't think playing well is going to add any value to him. He is at peak value. He had a healthy 2015 and put up very good stats. Outside of unpredictable situational scenarios his value only goes down from here.

[Madhawk23]

"Take your chances on Braun having a big first half."

 

What exactly is that doing? I don't think playing well is going to add any value to him. He is at peak value. He had a healthy 2015 and put up very good stats. Outside of unpredictable situational scenarios his value only goes down from here.

 

Listen, I'm all for maximizing Braun's value, and I realize that now is the time to act in order to do that. However, I also don't want to settle for some B or C level offer for him. Despite his past transgressions, he proved this year that he's still one of the best hitters in baseball (when healthy of course), and I feel like he should be valued in that way. I understand though that it's very tricky for all of us to fully figure out what type of value other teams have for Braun due to the "baggage" that he brings with him. I guess that's why I'd be OK eating money or bringing back a bad contract in return for the guy. It's not like we can't afford a bad contract right now with as low as our payroll will be for the next couple of years, and we were planning on paying Braun that money anyway.

[monty57]

"Take your chances on Braun having a big first half."

 

What exactly is that doing? I don't think playing well is going to add any value to him. He is at peak value. He had a healthy 2015 and put up very good stats. Outside of unpredictable situational scenarios his value only goes down from here.

 

Agree. Everyone knows who he is as a player. His questions were injury, PED and age. He stayed relatively healthy last season, so as far as the injury concern, that could only be hurt by holding onto him. The PED concerns were years ago, and he has played well since, limiting the concerns that he was only good because of PEDs. No one can do anything about age, but he will be a day older for every day we hold onto him. Braun probably still has a couple of seasons before age really starts to hit him, but we don't want to be left holding the "hot potato" when age does start to take it's effect on him.

 

As to the Red Sox, it really just depends on how much Braun wants to be out of Milwaukee and onto a winner. If he's willing to drop the no-trade clause, then a big money team with good prospects (like the Red Sox) would make sense. Stearns had just better be absolutely certain he's willing to accept the trade, because another Lucroy-to-Cleveland situation could make him look foolish.

[JosephC]

What are the chances we could get either DeLeon or Alvarez from the Dodgers in a Braun deal? Do we think that one of these two guys were in the initial talks before the 8/31 deadline?

 

I think there would be an outside chance at De Leon. As reillymcshane stated, De Leon doesn't project as a staff ace so he's not untouchable. If you look at the Dodgers rotation, they have Kershaw, Julio Urias (20 years old), Alex Wood (25 years old), Kenta Maeda (28 years old), Scott Kazmir (under contract through 2018). As far as 4th and 5th starter candidates that can fill back of the rotation spots in case of injury they have Brock Stewart and Chase De Jong in the minors that will be able to fill in next year and Josh Sborz who will probably be ready the following year. So even without De Leon they would have an excellent group of starting pitchers and plenty of minor league options to protect them in case of injury. And all of this assumes they dump McCarthy in a deal but if he's not moved that's another option they have.

 

But to get the Dodgers to include De Leon would require a number of concessions on the Brewers part:

-Only taking back $20 million dollars in McCarthy's contract would probably not be enough. I think they would probably have to send the Dodgers another 15 million on top of that or pick up another contract like Kendrick.

-The Brewers wouldn't get that much more out of the deal...likely just De Leon and another solid "role player" type prospect.

-The Brewers probably would be required to throw in another piece like Gennett if the Dodgers don't bring back Utley (latest rumor says they probably bring him back).

[adambr2]

Agreed with the sentiment that it doesn't really make sense to wait on Braun right now. If you graded his trade value right now in relation to where it could realistically go from 1 to 10, he's probably at about a 9 right now. It could maybe go a little higher if he duplicates his season again next year, but it could get a lot lower if he doesn't or struggles with injuries.

 

I agree that you don't want to take a bad deal just to trade him, but given the perceived value of the near deal that almost went down in August (Puig, McCarthy, and 2 'legitimate' prospects), I don't expect that to happen.

 

You also don't want to overplay your hand if the quality of the 2 prospects is slightly less than your liking and end up losing your chance to sell high on him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Encarnacion also costs their top draft pick, albeit Something in the 22-26range.(projecting Other Teams Losing #1 pick)

 

Encarnacion has had better seasons than 2016. Very consistent overall in last 5years. If I'm Boston and had a choice, I'd sign him over attempting a trade for Braun. Now, we can come back to the subject, if EE is signed elsewhere and Boston is on the lookout for another hitter.

I'm also skeptical because I believe Hanley Ramirez is destined to the DH hole vacated by David Ortiz.

Benintendi is someone they'll find a spot to play. Currently it was OF with Betts and Bradley. Travis Shaw fills their 1b need. This means to me they'll be in Justin Turner for 3b. Roster complete.

[JohnBriggs12]

I hope Braun plays his entire career here. He's owed below what players of his ability get on the open market, and he's 33 next year, not 38, and showed no signs he's near the end in 2016. If Braun is traded, Brewers will have to go out and pay to get some veterans down the road to mix in with the young talent when it's ready to compete in 2-3 years.

 

Unless some team eats all or most of his salary and gives back top tier talent (not some guy who could end up being an average major leaguer), he's more valuable in a Brewer uniform.

 

Braun's PED history will keep him out of the HOF, but his numbers will be HOF worthy. Lets appreciate that. Those guys come around oh, once in a generation or so.

[adambr2]

If Braun is traded, Brewers will have to go out and pay to get some veterans down the road to mix in with the young talent when it's ready to compete in 2-3 years.

 

I really don't think they will. I mean they have Broxton if he continues to look as great as he did late last year, Brinson, Ray, Cordell, Phillips, and Clark all in the pipeline. And Santana still has a shot to improve. Unless most of these guys massively flame out, they should be pretty well set with what they have in the system to field a full outfield and then some.

 

That's not to say they won't have to go out and sign some veterans at various points in the rebuild, I'm sure they will, but I don't think any will be a direct result of a Braun trade.

[MKE81]

I'm all for keeping Braun his career but that doesn't make sense given the current direction of the org. I agree the Brewers will need some vets mixed in with the young guys but that could be what 1b, bench, 1-2 SP spots and pen are for. Clearing Braun's salary via trading McCarthy/Puig would allow us to use that to sign some solid vet contributors to mix in with all the young guys by 2019/2020.

 

Braun's value won't get any higher than it is now. There's no way Stearns is going to trade him without getting what he sees as value now and in the future for the return. Sure there's always going to be a few other teams that make sense for Braun but I think he still ends up in LA given it was 95% completed so the talks shouldn't take much to finalize unless we get 1 elite prospect in return instead of 2 legitimate one's then the structure could change a bit.

[MrTPlush]

The "we need veterans" is a pretty lame excuse. There are some guys currently on the team that should be pretty experienced by then. I am sure one of the current rotation guys will stick(maybe 2). Bullpen will have some vets when we are competing. Villar should still be around and I am sure we will add some vets to fill the roster. There will be experienced guys on the team.

 

Love having Braun around, but keeping him around doesn't make a ton of sense. Unless you just get awful offers he should be traded.