Braun to Red Sox?

[Jose Cardenal1]

The Red Sox have a big hole to fill with Ortiz's retirement. MLB Traderumors listed the top free agents, their guess at their destination and contract. They have Edwin Encarnacion going to the Red Sox for 4yrs 92million.

 

EE is good but would you rather have him over Braun? Braun is also 2 yrs. younger and even if the Red Sox had to pick up the 5th year option without the Brewers kicking in any money it would be 5 yrs. 87 million.

 

Brewers and Red Sox could create a blockbuster trade with Braun, Thornburg and some $$ to make Braun even more valuable for Devers, Koepech and Cosart.

[mlloyd10]

Call me crazy, but i would rather keep Thornburg until the trade deadline - If he can put together a good 1st half - We will get a top 100 prospect for him alone. Braun for Devers/Kopech works for me.

[yoshii8]

I think the Red Sox could definitely be an option for Braun. I'm guessing he'd be willing to waive his no trade clause for them.

[sveumrules]

I think Edwin Encarnacion is a pretty good comp for determining Braun's surplus value since the two share the same general profile as aging bat first sluggers with limited defensive value. Last two years numbers are below...

 

RB | 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1,132 PAs

EE | 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1,326 PAs

 

Pretty close. Braun is probably the better pure hitter with Encarnacion making up for the singles deficit with more walks and extra base hits. Braun is also a superior base runner with a +1.6 mark compared to -4.3 for Edwin.

 

On the defensive side of things Encarnacion has played about 1,100 innings of OK first base with the rest of his time coming at DH. Braun is at over 2,200 innings in LF/RF the last two years with a DRS of +5 & UZR of -9. I'd say Braun clearly has more to offer than Encarnacion on defense.

 

Braun will be 33 for 2017, Encarnacion 34. Braun has 4/76 remaining with MLBTR projecting Encarnacion for 4/92. Of course Edwin just costs the money it takes to sign him, plus a comp pick, while Braun would require player capital to acquire for any interested team.

 

If Encarnacion really pulls 4/92 or thereabouts it would appear Braun has at least 15-20 million in surplus value on his current deal if not more depending on how different teams value the slight differences in their profiles.

[adambr2]

I think the Red Sox could definitely be an option for Braun. I'm guessing he'd be willing to waive his no trade clause for them.

 

We made a similar assumption with Lucroy. My guess is it he feels a trade to LA is imminent if he doesn't go elsewhere, he'll turn down every team in his NTC.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think Edwin Encarnacion is a pretty good comp for determining Braun's surplus value since the two share the same general profile as aging bat first sluggers with limited defensive value. Last two years numbers are below...

 

RB | 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1,132 PAs

EE | 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1,326 PAs

 

Pretty close. Braun is probably the better pure hitter with Encarnacion making up for the singles deficit with more walks and extra base hits. Braun is also a superior base runner with a +1.6 mark compared to -4.3 for Edwin.

 

On the defensive side of things Encarnacion has played about 1,100 innings of OK first base with the rest of his time coming at DH. Braun is at over 2,200 innings in LF/RF the last two years with a DRS of +5 & UZR of -9. I'd say Braun clearly has more to offer than Encarnacion on defense.

 

Braun will be 33 for 2017, Encarnacion 34. Braun has 4/76 remaining with MLBTR projecting Encarnacion for 4/92. Of course Edwin just costs the money it takes to sign him, plus a comp pick, while Braun would require player capital to acquire for any interested team.

 

If Encarnacion really pulls 4/92 or thereabouts it would appear Braun has at least 15-20 million in surplus value on his current deal if not more depending on how different teams value the slight differences in their profiles.

 

Thanks for the effort! Begs the question, why would Boston give up top prospects for Braun when they can just sign a very similar player off the street?

[Madhawk23]

I know there are a lot of "what if's" here, but what if Braun did waive his no-trade clause to Boston, and there was interest on the Red Sox's part to work out a deal to get Braun.

 

Would it help at all for the Brewers to take on a contract like Pablo Sandavol, in order to get a better grouping of prospects in return? If we took the Panda off of their hands, would it be reasonable to then get a package of Devers, Kopech and someone like Cosart?

 

I realize we wouldn't want a guy like Pablo on our team, but if it helps to get a better prospect return (see Puig in the LA deal), would it be worth it to go down this road?

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm with FVBrewerFan. Why give up talent and create a hole someplace else when they have the money to sign an impact bat in FA?

[sveumrules]

Begs the question, why would Boston give up top prospects for Braun when they can just sign a very similar player off the street?

 

If the Red Sox believe Braun projects to be equal to or better than Encarnacion over the next four years they might not mind trading a prospect like Devers (who is blocked/at least two years away) in order to acquire him plus buy a nice late inning reliever with the 20ish million in cost savings over Encarnacion.

 

Would it help at all for the Brewers to take on a contract like Pablo Sandavol, in order to get a better grouping of prospects in return?

 

I would definitely take back Pablo if it sweetened the prospect pot. He's only got 3/58 left on his deal and we have both the payroll space & hole at 3B to accommodate him. Could be a good candidate to flip at the deadline if he regains his past form & even if he doesn't the payroll hit likely wouldn't be much of an impediment given where we project to be on the win curve in forthcoming seasons.

[Madhawk23]

I'm with FVBrewerFan. Why give up talent and create a hole someplace else when they have the money to sign an impact bat in FA?

 

If this is the case, then why would the Dodgers go after Braun this offseason if they can just go out and sign someone like Cespedes instead? This really makes me wonder if we might have to wait well into the winter before anything actually happens with Braun? Teams might want to see if they can fill their offensive needs through some of the limited F/A market before trading away their prospects for someone like Braun.

[FVBrewerFan]

This trade is growing on me. First, yea, we have to acknowledge Braun needs to approve. No idea other than my gut, but I have a feeling he would not approve. Just seems like it's either Cali or Milwaukee for him at this point, would not be surprised if he's taken Miami off his list at this point, or will.

 

With that said, it's all about the quality of prospects. If they have to take on Panda, fine with me. Braun should get back 2-3 really good prospects by himself, no need to thrown in Thorny. And knowing DS, that's how he's looking at it too.

[MrTPlush]

I'm with FVBrewerFan. Why give up talent and create a hole someplace else when they have the money to sign an impact bat in FA?

 

If this is the case, then why would the Dodgers go after Braun this offseason if they can just go out and sign someone like Cespedes instead? This really makes me wonder if we might have to wait well into the winter before anything actually happens with Braun? Teams might want to see if they can fill their offensive needs through some of the limited F/A market before trading away their prospects for someone like Braun.

 

That was a given. People were expecting this Dodgers trade to come to fruition right after the World Series. Sorry it doesn't work that way. Teams will scour the FA field before attempting a Braun trade.

[LouisEly]

I'm with FVBrewerFan. Why give up talent and create a hole someplace else when they have the money to sign an impact bat in FA?

There's no guarantee that EE will sign with Boston. The Yankees will be looking to retool quickly, the Angels will have money to spend, Ilitch still doesn't have a WS, the Braves will have a ton of money to spend, etc. A trade guarantees you get the player, free agency is blind bidding that often causes overpayment. Look at how much the Angels spent on Pujols, the Tigers spent on Upton and Fielder, etc. Someone could come over the top of Boston.

 

A trade also allows a team to send some salary back, and in the case of the Dodgers, if it can get them under the luxury tax threshold that will have huge implications financially for the organization. That, to them, is probably worth giving up some prospects for.

[JosephC]

Problem with scouring the free agent market is that there are only two bats that I know of that are comparable to Braun. Encarnacion and Cespedes. Looking at MLBTradeRumors top free agent predictions the next bats are Justin Turner (not nearly the track record of Braun), Dexter Fowler (completely different type of hitter), Mark Trumbo (huge home run number in 2016 but inconsistent and barely a lifetime .300 OBP player). And there is guaranteed to be more than 2 teams looking for middle of the order bats that have some assets (whether that be money or prospects) that they will be willing to give up.

 

If the Brewers take back zero dollars in a Braun trade, and assuming the option year turns into a player option, the team obtaining Braun would be on the hook for 5 years, 91 million...18.2 million per season. Whereas the Encarnacion is projected at 92 million for 4 years (23 million per season) and Cespedes is projected at 5 years, 125 million (25 million per season). If the Brewers are willing to eat 18 million in that deal (amount of deferred money in the contract, could take back by either sending cash or taking back a bad contract), it would make him 20 million cheaper than Encarnacion with an extra year on his deal. So just comparing him strictly to free agents (granted, other available bats through trade could push him down the list), it's pretty easy to view Braun as one of the most attractive middle of the order hitters that will be available this off-season.

 

Say that MLBTradeRumor's predictions come true and Cespedes goes to the Dodgers and Encarnacion goes to the Red Sox...if that happens Braun knows that his chances of being a Dodger are basically reduced to nothing and IMO further opens the door to him approving a trade to a different market. I still think the Astros and Braun are a great fit for one another. But if one team jumps up and grabs one of those two big FA bats away from the Dodgers/Red Sox...then it certainly wouldn't be a stretch to see Braun emerge as the favorite for either of those teams.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Regarding Braun approving a trade to Boston. While he clearly wants to play in southern CA, if one of those teams does not step up, Boston might be the best alternative for him. First, he is more valuable and will enjoy his last few years more if he is in the AL and primarily a DH. Second, given the current talent level within the Boston organization, he has to know that there would be a great chance to play in a couple post-seasons. Third, Braun has two young kids now and you would think that he wants stability. i.e. he wants to know where he will be for the rest of his career. If he were traded to SD or LAD does he really think they wont turn around and trade him 2 years from now when he needs to be a DH? Lastly, Boston is a great American city with a lot to offer. It's not like we are asking him to go to Cleveland

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm with FVBrewerFan. Why give up talent and create a hole someplace else when they have the money to sign an impact bat in FA?

 

If this is the case, then why would the Dodgers go after Braun this offseason if they can just go out and sign someone like Cespedes instead? This really makes me wonder if we might have to wait well into the winter before anything actually happens with Braun? Teams might want to see if they can fill their offensive needs through some of the limited F/A market before trading away their prospects for someone like Braun.

 

Braun is still a better player than Cespedes and his contract is reasonable compared to what Cespedes will get in FA? Plus apparently the Brewers seemed willing to take back almost all of his salary. That being said there's no guaranty Braun will be traded or that LA will still have interest or that the Brewers won't decide to keep Braun for the remainder of what is not a crippling contract. As good as the Cubs were this past year, veterans played a huge role for them. To think the 2018-2020 Brewers will accomplish anything without some veterans is simply not reality and it's not like they'll have the means to just buy a Ben Zobrist.

[JosephC]

Word out of Boston is that RHP-Michael Kopech is untouchable. It's also fair to assume that the Brewers would not get 2B-Yoan Moncada or OF-Andrew Benintendi out of a Braun trade. I also think 3B-Rafael Devers and LHP-Jason Groome would be very tough to pry away from Boston unless the Brewer's sweetened the pot...and if that's the case the Brewers might find better value for Braun + other pieces in separate deals.

 

The one player on their roster that I would absolutely love to have is LHP-Eduardo Rodriguez, but would have to believe that he would be off the table too even after a pretty mediocre season (4.71 ERA, 3-7 record).

 

While Boston has some big contracts, they don't have a bad contract that would make sense for Milwaukee to take on in a Braun swap. Whereas a team like the Dodgers might be looking to get under the luxury tax threshold, that doesn't seem to be as big of a concern for the Red Sox so they might not be that interested in taking money from the Brewers and increasing the prospect return to Milwaukee.

 

Best guess with Boston is that, since I don't think they would be that interested in making the Brewer's eat a portion of Braun's deal, a possible deal with them wouldn't land that big of a return for Milwaukee. How Stearns views a player like Travis Shaw could make or break a deal with Boston. Shaw had the seventh most at-bats for the Red Sox last year, but they probably view him as a "second-division" type player. His highest at-bat total came from the 6th position in the lineup last year but a team like Boston would probably view him as a bottom third of the lineup bat. There are things to like about him (16 home runs, defensive versatility) and things to not like about him (88 OPS+, .306 OBP). If Stearns sees him as a solid 6th hitter that fills a 3B/1B hole on the roster then I can see a Braun deal possibly happening with Boston. If Stearns doesn't see any value in Shaw then it might be tough to get the pieces to match up.

 

If a deal happens with Boston I'll throw out this prediction:

 

Red Sox get:

-Ryan Braun (option year of contract is turned into a player's option and Braun waives no-trade right)

 

Brewers get:

-3B/1B - Travis Shaw

-1B - Josh Ockimey

-RHP - Roniel Raudes

 

That seems a bit light to me but again, if no money is involved I don't think the return would be that great. In the end I think it's hard for Boston and Milwaukee to get a deal done unless Devers, Groome or Rodriguez is included and getting additional pieces to match up just makes it that much harder.

[Madhawk23]

Word out of Boston is that RHP-Michael Kopech is untouchable. It's also fair to assume that the Brewers would not get 2B-Yoan Moncada or OF-Andrew Benintendi out of a Braun trade. I also think 3B-Rafael Devers and LHP-Jason Groome would be very tough to pry away from Boston unless the Brewer's sweetened the pot...and if that's the case the Brewers might find better value for Braun + other pieces in separate deals.

 

The one player on their roster that I would absolutely love to have is LHP-Eduardo Rodriguez, but would have to believe that he would be off the table too even after a pretty mediocre season (4.71 ERA, 3-7 record).

 

While Boston has some big contracts, they don't have a bad contract that would make sense for Milwaukee to take on in a Braun swap. Whereas a team like the Dodgers might be looking to get under the luxury tax threshold, that doesn't seem to be as big of a concern for the Red Sox so they might not be that interested in taking money from the Brewers and increasing the prospect return to Milwaukee.

 

Best guess with Boston is that, since I don't think they would be that interested in making the Brewer's eat a portion of Braun's deal, a possible deal with them wouldn't land that big of a return for Milwaukee. How Stearns views a player like Travis Shaw could make or break a deal with Boston. Shaw had the seventh most at-bats for the Red Sox last year, but they probably view him as a "second-division" type player. His highest at-bat total came from the 6th position in the lineup last year but a team like Boston would probably view him as a bottom third of the lineup bat. There are things to like about him (16 home runs, defensive versatility) and things to not like about him (88 OPS+, .306 OBP). If Stearns sees him as a solid 6th hitter that fills a 3B/1B hole on the roster then I can see a Braun deal possibly happening with Boston. If Stearns doesn't see any value in Shaw then it might be tough to get the pieces to match up.

 

If a deal happens with Boston I'll throw out this prediction:

 

Red Sox get:

-Ryan Braun (option year of contract is turned into a player's option and Braun waives no-trade right)

 

Brewers get:

-3B/1B - Travis Shaw

-1B - Josh Ockimey

-RHP - Roniel Raudes

 

That seems a bit light to me but again, if no money is involved I don't think the return would be that great. In the end I think it's hard for Boston and Milwaukee to get a deal done unless Devers, Groome or Rodriguez is included and getting additional pieces to match up just makes it that much harder.

 

If that's all that we could get in a deal for Braun, then you absolutely don't trade the guy. Take your chances that he has a big 1st half this next year and try to deal him at the deadline. No way would I pull the trigger on a package consisting of Shaw/Ockimey/Raudes. I would need at least Devers/Raudes coming back in return, and might even ask for Cosart in the deal as well. As I mentioned above, (and I know it's not my team or my money) I'd be perfectly fine taking back a bad contract like Sandoval or eating some of Braun's money if it means getting back more in return here. Outside of maybe Thornburg, he's our last big trade chip left in this rebuild, and I think we need to do our best to maximize it.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Agree w/ Madtownhawk. That return stinks for Braun. At minimum one of Devers or Kopech has to be included. I believe those two are the most getable of their top 5 prospects.

[trwi7]

Take your chances that he has a big 1st half this next year and try to deal him at the deadline.

 

His 10/5 rights kick in in May. It's already difficult to trade him with his contract and no trade clause. Waiting until summer makes it even tougher.

[brewmann04]

The brewers really better get a legit starter for braun

[jerichoholicninja]

Take your chances that he has a big 1st half this next year and try to deal him at the deadline.

 

His 10/5 rights kick in in May. It's already difficult to trade him with his contract and no trade clause. Waiting until summer makes it even tougher.

 

I think the 10/5 rights are way overblown as a concern. He's already got a no trade clause that includes pretty much any team that would want or could afford him anyway so the NTC and 10/5 are basically the same thing.

[3and2Fastball]

Need to get pitching for Braun, in my opinion

[Madhawk23]

What are the chances we could get either DeLeon or Alvarez from the Dodgers in a Braun deal? Do we think that one of these two guys were in the initial talks before the 8/31 deadline?

[reillymcshane]

What are the chances we could get either DeLeon or Alvarez from the Dodgers in a Braun deal? Do we think that one of these two guys were in the initial talks before the 8/31 deadline?

Personally, I say no.

 

But every time this question is asked, you have to ask 'How much money (if anything) are the Brewers willing to include in a trade?" Your return is going to be massively different if you send them $1M as opposed to $40M.

 

Alvarez has top of the rotation potential. DeLeon is ready for the majors, but doesn't have quite the upside - more mid-rotation (which is still pretty sweet). I'm skeptical of the Dodgers trading a guy they can insert into the rotation this year (DeLeon) or a guy they think has all star potential (Alvarez - who they forked over $16M for just a year ago) - unless it's for someone like Chris Sale.

 

I should add that I am more skeptical than some people about Braun's value due to his advancing age, recent history of injuries and his PED stuff. It's not that I don't think Braun has value, I just think it makes people much more wary than if you have someone without those issues.

 

But that's just me. It only takes one team to fall in love with a player. So you never know.

 

Honestly, the guy I really like in the Dodgers system is Walker Buehler. He had the potential to be the top pick in the 2015 draft, but he hurt his elbow and needed TJ surgery. Dodgers took him late in the 1st round of 2015. He would have been a perfect buy low guy. But he was supposedly throwing near 100 when he finally debuted this past August. I bet he starts popping up on Top 100 lists even though he's only pitched a few innings as a pro.