Buying an ace on the FA market

[adambr2]

Let me preface this by saying I'm a big advocate of the rebuild that we've undertaken. I also certainly understand the constraints brought on by being in a small market.

 

With that said, we know as Brewer fans how difficult it is to develop ace pitchers. Which is why it's so extremely rare that one becomes available in free agency. I often hear that we can't follow the Cubs rebuild plan, because we can't buy aces the way they can. However, is this necessarily true? A 30M contract isn't unaffordable for this organization, it's simply a matter of how you want to allocate your resources.

 

Consider that particularly if Braun is traded, the budget constraints on the Brewers after 2017 range somewhere between small and nonexistent. While the payroll has been low, a contending Brewer team under Mark A certainly has the flexibility for a 9 figure budget, I'd guess somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M.

 

The Brewers should have a pretty good idea after 2017 about whether or not they're ready to contend in 2018, or if they're still a couple years away.

 

Imagine, for example, if Jake Arrieta hits free agency in 2018 as he would right now. The Cubs no doubt have future budget constraints, and Arrieta said there will be no hometown discount. Imagine if the final step before contention in the rebuild is acquiring such a piece, and the buzz and excitement created not only by doing so, but by stealing that piece from a huge division rival. No doubt such a player would be tremendously marketable and possibly result in a spike in attendance, and unlike Sabathia and Greinke, would not cost us a king's random in prospects for a short term solution.

 

While I don't think it's unfeasible given our current budget, the only question is whether or not it would be unwise. We've shown a willingness in the past to spend on average pitching, but even the price on that is around $15M a year or so these days. Would you rather have two such pitchers, or one ace for $30M a year? At this point, I'd certainly opt for the latter. Any rotation problems in the near future don't project from being from a lack of depth, but rather from a lack of a surefire ace at the top. The flip side, of course, is that such a contract for a pitcher in his 30s nearly guarantees you dead weight at the back end of the contract. I have little doubt Arrieta will be easily worth 30M a year in 2018 and even 2019 -- after that, it may get dicey. But I'd also argue that if the reward is several years of a top end contender in Milwaukee, and finally bringing a World Series to the city, most would agree that the sacrifice was worth it. Of course, there's tremendous risk in such a move too - just ask the Diamondbacks.

 

I have no definite opinion on something like this one way or another, but too often because of our market size I think we resign ourselves to an acceptance that we are not in play for such prize free agents. I don't think we should do that, and I think in the near future there's a lot to sell a player on here as we continue to improve this team to a contender, especially if we can sell him on the idea that he's the one to push us over the top. Regardless, I'm of the opinion that all avenues and ideas to improving this franchise should be considered, even if involves nothing more than kicking the tires and finding out that the market is just too much to throw our hat in the ring.

[MrTPlush]

It would take a perfect situation to go and sign a true ace(or one just a step down). We would need to hit on a lot of our young talent and have them start producing at the same time. Giving us a very cheap team for multiple years. The other problem is the fact we better be really sure we are going to compete from the get go. If we sign Arrieta and don't compete till 2020...big trouble. It's only worth it if we can stick that guy in the rotation and hit the ground running(think Lester signing for the Cubs).

 

It's pretty hard to give an opinion years in advance without all the specifics. Like I can tell you it makes no sense this offseason, but past that who knows. I'd like to see the situation present itself, but it may not. For us if we have too many other holes it probably won't be feasible.

 

The other thing to think about is the fact the Brewers new TV deal is slowly approaching. I believe it is set to hit in 2020 so that could play a massive role in this kind of signing. We won't get Dodgers money, but we will get a large bump up from what we are currently getting.

 

Cheap payroll until 2020 or beyond with a new TV deal kicking in after that I would put my money on a $20mil+ signing whether Braun still exists here or not.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers need to either develop their own ace or use a loaded farm system to acquire one. If they were a little further along in the rebuild like just another year or two, Chris Sale would be a perfect target. Sox are at least listening to offers and he's got 3 more years of control, making him even more attractive than rentals of the past, Sabathia and Greinke. Maybe a year from now, if Sale stays with Sox and they still aren't solid contenders, he'll be available with a slightly smaller asking price and just 2 years of control left.

[FVBrewerFan]

This time around, I don't want to see another Sabathia or Greinke type trade. It has taken a long time to rebuild the system, and I don't want to see them sell off a bunch of talent for a one or two year run. The Brewers need to keep the farm system as stacked as possible for multiple, multiple year.

 

I think KC and Cleveland are reasonable blueprints for the Brewers. They don't need to sign an "ace" or even develop one. If they build a really good roster 1-25 they can be a legit contender without an ace. If they stumble into one with Hader, Ortiz or whomever, great, better yet.

 

This season actually proved again that teams with the best aces (like the Dodgers and Giants) still couldn't get past the Cubs. Pitching was every bit as good, but couldn't hang offensively.

[MrTPlush]

I think KC and Cleveland are reasonable blueprints for the Brewers.

 

That would be a reason we need an ace. They rode Kluber. If not for him the World Series would have been short and sweet.

 

Also teams with good pitching didn't get past the Cubs because the Cubs still had by far the best pitching. You need good pitching and you almost by default need an ace. You can do it without one...but good luck. Going to be a lot of dissapointment in your future.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers need to either develop their own ace or use a loaded farm system to acquire one.

 

Sale would cost about half of what we consider our future. It doesn't make sense. We need this strong current farm system to put us back on the map. After that it won't look so loaded. You would then need to wait for it to rebuild itself again which would take you till 2020 or beyond to do because you won't be refilling it the easy way like what we did for this farm system(trading talented players).

[monty57]

I think we could do it, but I don't think I'd want to hitch my wagon to a monster deal for a 32-year-old Arrieta. If next offseason is the time the Brewers jump deeper into free agency, I'd like them to look at guys like Tyler Chatwood and Jarrod Parker, who will be much younger free agents (unless they extend before then).

 

I agree that I do not want to see the Brewers sell the farm for an ace, as without the farm we would not be in need of an ace for a playoff run.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs won this series because they didn't have to resort to running out their best starting pitchers repeatedly on short rest - they had 4 starters they were confident in giving them quality starts....helps that 3 of them included last year's Cy Young winner (Arrieta) and two of this years Cy Young frontrunners (Lester, Hendricks), plus a veteran with tons of postseason experience in Lester. Having one true ace isn't enough to ensure postseason success - the Cubs had arguably 3 in their postseason rotation. They also had the luxury of finishing the last 6 or so weeks of the regular season with a 6-man rotation, giving their key starters plenty of rest instead of being forced to ride them hard just to make the playoffs.

 

For a team like Milwaukee to field the type of rotation needed to win 7 game series, they need 1-2 pre-free agency studs (drafted or acquired), and one #2 caliber or better free agent starter.

 

Again, to reference the Cubs, NONE of the pitchers on their World Series roster were initially signed/drafted by the Cubs' organization - ALL were acquired via trade or free agency. I'd argue the 2016 Cub blueprint is much like what the Brewers did in 2008-2011, only without any payroll restraints or concerns about losing quality players they can no longer afford/replace...be bad long enough to draft impact bats that cost peanuts before they reach free agency, build your rotation and bullpen via trades & spending $ in free agency.

[MrTPlush]

I think we could do it, but I don't think I'd want to hitch my wagon to a monster deal for a 32-year-old Arrieta. If next offseason is the time the Brewers jump deeper into free agency, I'd like them to look at guys like Tyler Chatwood and Jarrod Parker, who will be much younger free agents (unless they extend before then).

 

Except the goal is to have an ace. I hope we can produce our own Chatwood/Parker. If we can't there will be no need for an ace.

[splitterpfj]

The problem with free agent pitching is the contracts are always too long to pay off for a small market franchise.

 

If you sign a pitcher who's over 30, which is what you almost always do with free agents, you're going to have guaranteed money until he's 35-37 years old. That could work well for the first years of the deal, but you're going to wind up with dead money in later seasons.

 

A Greinke trade, sure, because he was signed for two years at the time. A Sabathia deal? Maybe, it depends on the pitcher, and the prospects.

 

Mr Kluber was a 4th round pick, of the San Diego Padres - Cleveland got him in a 3-team trade.

 

Mr Salazar was signed by and developed by Cleveland, as an international free agent - he spent six years in the minor leagues.

 

Mr Carrasco was signed by the Phillies as an international free agent, he was traded to Cleveland as part of the return for Cliff Lee.

 

Mr Miller was drafted out of high school, but did not sign, he was then drafted 6th overall by Detroit. The Tigers traded him to the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera deal, the Marlins then sent him to Boston, who re-signed him as a free agent, then sent him to Baltimore. Miller became a free agent, signing with the Yankees, who then traded him to the Indians for four prospects.

 

Mr Allen was drafted by the Indians, but did not sign, he was then drafted again by the Indians, in the 23rd round. He was in the big leagues THE NEXT SEASON.

 

Mr Shaw was drafted in round two, by the Diamondbacks in 2008, Mr Bauer was drafted 3rd overall by the Diamondbacks, both came to Cleveland in the same 3-team trade, built around Shin-Soo Choo.

 

Mr Tomlin was drafted out of high school, but did not sign. He was then drafted again, by Cleveland, in round 19 - he reached the big leagues at age 26, to date, his largest MLB salary has been 2.25 million, he is signed through 2017, with a team option for 2018, the most he can make in a season will be 3 million dollars.

 

That is the heart of the pitching staff that came within an eyelash of carrying the Indians to a World Series title. Two were elite draft picks, (neither made by the Indians), two were international free agents, one was taken in round two, one was taken in round four, one was taken in round 19, and one was taken in round 23. Only three of them have spent their entire careers with the Indians.

 

There's more than one way, folks. All avenues, all the time, when you're looking for pitching.

[MrTPlush]

There's more than one way, folks. All avenues, all the time, when you're looking for pitching.

 

I don't think anyone is trying to say we need to go sign an ace in FA. The question was more: If we don't develop one and the time comes to compete would it be feasible to go and sign one?

 

The real question is how much does the dead weight on the end of the contract matter for a small market? Realistically as a small market we are not going to be contending every year for half a decade plus. It is just a hard thing to do. So would it really have been devastating if we signed a pitcher to a massive contract before 2008 and got 4 good years and 3 bad years, does it matter? How bad would it hurt us if we were paying someone $25mil to do nothing this year? What would the sacrifice be? No Gallardo/Weeks extensions? Sounds like a good trade-off.(**And please understand that was a very generic example. Very generic so it might not make total sense, but you get the point of it.**)

 

It is impossible to know if we can or can't do this in the future. There are so many variables and all of those are a total mystery at this point. If we keep the farm system stocked and aren't afraid to trade or let go of a player when the 6 years of cheap control are gone in favor of a young gun it is more than possible. However if we have 5 major holes to fill via FA or sign a bunch of extensions the payroll won't be there.

[adambr2]

There's more than one way, folks. All avenues, all the time, when you're looking for pitching.

 

I don't think anyone is trying to say we need to go sign an ace in FA. The question was more: If we don't develop one and the time comes to compete would it be feasible to go and sign one?

 

Right. I agree with the all avenues, all the time, point, but this is one of the avenues. Just because teams have shown it can be done without a surefire ace, doesn't mean it's not a lot easier when you have that ace.

 

Obviously, the timing, situation, and market have to all be right, and even then, you're likely going to end up with some bad looking money at the back end of the deal.

[splitterpfj]

OK then, I'll clarify my answer.

 

"No."

 

Whether it's for a pitcher or a hitter, the Brewers cannot commit the kind of money it takes to sign any one elite free agent. The only way I can imagine it is if the idea was to trade that player in a couple of years, as Detroit did with Prince Fielder, and in the case of the sort you would consider a true ace pitcher, they'll either get a no-trade clause, or they'll get even more money in place of a no-trade.

 

No, I would not consider it an option for the Milwaukee Brewers to sign an elite free agent starting pitcher, strictly because of the contract it would take, in relation to what team payrolls are likely to be. It's the same reason we'll never sign Mike Trout, but we're talking about pitching.

 

I'll modify my prior comment, "All avenues, all the time, except MLB free agents, when looking for pitching." The pitchers we can afford might help, but most of the time, comparable replacements can be found through other means, and the pitchers we can't afford, are the pitchers we can't afford.

 

The Royals traded kids for James Shields, that didn't get it done, but they did reach the World Series, then the next year they traded more kids for Johnny Cueto, and they won the whole thing. The Indians did it with Andrew Miller, but in each case, the teams most like Milwaukee who have had the type of postseason success you're looking for have traded prospects for established pitching, to get over the top.

 

I would think a trade for a pitcher who is already on a big free agent contract, with the other team kicking in some cash, is much more likely than seeing the Brewers sign that original deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

This time around, I don't want to see another Sabathia or Greinke type trade. It has taken a long time to rebuild the system, and I don't want to see them sell off a bunch of talent for a one or two year run. The Brewers need to keep the farm system as stacked as possible for multiple, multiple year.

 

I think KC and Cleveland are reasonable blueprints for the Brewers. They don't need to sign an "ace" or even develop one. If they build a really good roster 1-25 they can be a legit contender without an ace. If they stumble into one with Hader, Ortiz or whomever, great, better yet.

 

This season actually proved again that teams with the best aces (like the Dodgers and Giants) still couldn't get past the Cubs. Pitching was every bit as good, but couldn't hang offensively.

 

KC's won without an ace because the backend of their bullpen might have been the best ever over a couple of seasons. I don't see them sustaining it.

Cleveland did what few teams can do. They not only developed an ace in Kluber but two other top starters in Carrasco and Santiago and they emerged in the big leagues a little older than many top of the line starters do allowing them control through their prime seasons. If the Brewers can do that, well that's the ideal.

 

Still even Cleveland had to deal 4 prospects to get Miller who was a huge reason they got as far as they did. There's no way the Brewers get over the hump without surrendering prospects, and good ones at some point.

[FVBrewerFan]

There's no way the Brewers get over the hump without surrendering prospects, and good ones at some point.

 

You state that as fact, when it's not. How do you now that? Today, the Brewers have the following pitchers who could be "#3" or better pitchers, some of which could be an ace: Davies, Peralta, Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Lopez, Bickford, Diplan, Peralta, Taylor Williams, Kirby, Perrin, Ponce, Burnes. That's just off the top of my head. Not to mention a prospect jumping out the next couple years we're not even thinking about (like a Yamamoto.)

 

Who knows, maybe 4 of those guys reach ace status. I just reject the notion that they will need to go out and buy an ace, it's way too early to know that.

 

Keep the door open IF they want to go out and buy an ace? Sure. But if we're looking at odds, then odds are better they can develop an ace rather than compete with the big market clubs to sign one in FA.

[monty57]

I think we could do it, but I don't think I'd want to hitch my wagon to a monster deal for a 32-year-old Arrieta. If next offseason is the time the Brewers jump deeper into free agency, I'd like them to look at guys like Tyler Chatwood and Jarrod Parker, who will be much younger free agents (unless they extend before then).

 

Except the goal is to have an ace. I hope we can produce our own Chatwood/Parker. If we can't there will be no need for an ace.

 

Sorry, not Parker - he's been a walking injury and recently his arm blew up and he's been non-tendered. Shame on me for just giving the list a quick glance and then typing a post.

 

I don't want us to throw a huge contract to someone like Arrieta, as we'd be singing him for too much of our payroll until he's in his late 30's/early 40's. Whoever signs him will be sorry they did. Probably the same thing for a Tyson Ross, although he'll probably be cheaper and for less years then Arrieta. I also don't want us to empty out the farm trading for an ace. Why (for instance) trade away Ortiz and Bickford for two years of an ace when Ortiz and Bickford could be 40% of our rotation, even if neither ends up being a "true ace."

 

As Splitter said, there are many ways of getting your star players. It's hard to compare what "could be" with a rotation boasting three Cy Young-caliber guys at the top of the rotation, but only two years ago everyone was saying the Cubs wouldn't have enough pitching to be good, as all their prospects were position players. They landed Arrieta in a minor deal after Baltimore gave up on him, and got Hendricks from Texas in the Dempster deal. Their only major FA signing was Lester, who may be their third best pitcher. Lackey is an aging middle-of-the rotation guy, so that was kind of a Lohse/Garza type signing, although they were smart enough to only sign him for two years.

 

We've already made some seemingly good deals in this "rebuild," and therefore we have some young pitching talent at the MLB level, and more in the minors. I think we have the makings of a strong rotation, and getting a solid pitcher hitting FA in his late 20's (like Chatwood or maybe Matt Moore), could give us a rotation that's strong enough to compete. If there were a good option to get a "true ace" who is still in his prime when he hits free agency, then I'd say they could take a shot (although someone with deep pockets could make it hard for the Brewers to get him). However, without that guy available, don't do something you'll regret like signing a 32-year-old to a 6-8-year deal.

[MrTPlush]

As Splitter said, there are many ways of getting your star players.

 

As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility.

[clancyphile]

As Splitter said, there are many ways of getting your star players.

 

As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility.

 

If all those options fail, then we'll probably see a new GM, a new manager, and we will be in another rebuilding plan.

[reillymcshane]

As Splitter said, there are many ways of getting your star players.

 

As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility.

To this question - if the Brewers have the chance to sign an ace in free agency - I say, "No, it won't happen."

 

It's just too expensive. Boston paid David Price $30M a year. Greinke got nearly $35M a year. Those were for 7 and 6 years, if I recall correctly.

 

Milwaukee just won't do that. Boston can make that move for Price, but we can't suck up 1/3 or a 1/4 of our payroll on one guy for that long of a time frame.

 

The club might make a lesser move in free agency - go for a solid #3 or something if they feel they need it. I see them taking a risk like the Cubs did with Lackey - 2-years at $18M a year. That's something that won't hamstring the team for half a decade. I just doubt they ever splurge on an ace for those numbers and those years.

[clancyphile]

As Splitter said, there are many ways of getting your star players.

 

As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility.

To this question - if the Brewers have the chance to sign an ace in free agency - I say, "No, it won't happen."

 

It's just too expensive. Boston paid David Price $30M a year. Greinke got nearly $35M a year. Those were for 7 and 6 years, if I recall correctly.

 

Milwaukee just won't do that. Boston can make that move for Price, but we can't suck up 1/3 or a 1/4 of our payroll on one guy for that long of a time frame.

 

The club might make a lesser move in free agency - go for a solid #3 or something if they feel they need it. I see them taking a risk like the Cubs did with Lackey - 2-years at $18M a year. That's something that won't hamstring the team for half a decade. I just doubt they ever splurge on an ace for those numbers and those years.

 

Barring a massive cash influx from somewhere, there is just no way that happens.

 

The Brewers will need a farm system second to none to constantly keep talent flowing.

 

They need to also hit more in those late rounds. Brent Suter was a 31st-round pick. Mike Fiers was a 22nd-round pick.

 

For 20% of what it costs to pay Grienke for one year, the Brewers could hire another 30 scouts and to invest in some independent league teams. Use that as an extra feeder or two.

[brewcrewdue80]

Reality Check. Never Happening. I didn't even read the discussion. Bernie Sanders has a 100-1 odds of winning the Election over that happening.

 

It's on the side of even getting your money's worth. Something that has value here over the likes of the Large Markets.

 

30million yeah, sure is doable on the books for a year or two. FA Aces don't sign for less than 5years.

 

Let's just remind that the Cubs won the WS with near 190Million Team Payroll.

Paying

Anthony Rizzo 5million this year.

Jake Arrieta 10.7mil this year.

Hector Rondon 4.2mil this year.

Kris Bryant 652k

Kyle Hendriks 541k

Addison Russell 527k

Kyle Scwarber 522k

Javier Baez 521k

Mike Montgomery 514k

Carl Edwards below 500k

 

That is 10 of nearly all their Star Players on a 25man making a little more than 26million on the salary.

According to Fangraphs Who amounted to 30FWAR roughly all combined. They still added 150+million to that core.

 

This Franchise can't do that. And if we fall into that luck of having 10players earning under 30mil for 30WAR? Well, I promise you That isn't happening either because guys like that will be signed and extended early as soon as possible. Right now, we are nowhere near having producers with the bat coming up like Rizzo or Kris Bryant, who happen to play the two posititions our farm system is completely lacking in on future. At least in the realms of even half that kind of production and WAR value.

 

I think what remains of Melvin and FA Pitcher signings is it for Stearns. He'll look to acquire guys like Chase Anderson to help out his staff and build from within. The good money will come in signings like Ben Zobrist/Dexter Fowler. The types that can help the roster every day playing for less than half the money 1 FA Ace SP would cost. Truthfully Stearns is building a great pool to get to pull from on pitching arms. Sorta anti-Cubs rebuild. Think of it this way. Stearns may be building a team in the form of what San Francisco did, by growing pitching and supplementing with position players and Bullpen.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just so long as Attanasio doesn't get carried away and sign Jason Hammel to be the next Suppan, Wolf, Lohse or Garza.

[monty57]

Right now, we are nowhere near having producers with the bat coming up like Rizzo or Kris Bryant

 

To be fair, the Cubs didn't have Rizzo in their system until they traded for him when he was in AAA, and I don't think they gave up too much to get him.

 

We do have the #1 or 2 rated farm in the league, so we have talent, both in pitching and position players. We'll have to see how those players progress, but we have a lot of talent in the system.