Charlie Morton

[And That]

The Phillies declined Charlie Morton's 2017 option today. His season ended early due to hamstring surgery and I fully acknowledge that he wasn't that good in 2015. He does, however, get a ton of ground balls and with the infield defense looking potentially better next season, that's a big plus. His velocity has also been consistent since he retooled his mechanics a few years ago.

 

I also acknowledge that he's going to be 33 in a few weeks, but there might be some value in giving him a two year deal assuming his asking price is less AAV than the $8 mil he made this year (or the value of his $9+ mil option for 2017).

[ZBTMP]

I know "you can never have enough pitching" and there is some upside, but the odds seem against him being a sub-4 era pitcher anymore. I like the thought as the Cubs (Feldman/Hammel) and Pirates (Burnett/Liriano) seem to find success with buy low veterans in the past, but..

If he does stay healthy Im not sure where you put everybody.

Davies and Guerra have secured their spots.

Peralta pitched well enough after the demotion to open next year in the rotation.

There is probably still potential Nelson’s control finally takes a step forward.

As unexciting as Garza is, he is probably pitching above replacement level so you don’t just cut him. Yet I doubt anyone wants to acquire him as offseason plan A in their 2017 rotation.

Anderson was mediocre enough in the second half that they will probably not be ready to move on.

Suter is capable of starting if need-be

Wilkerson has had good enough metrics to get a shot at some point and at 28 he isn’t doing much more development at AAA.

Leaving Hader in CS beyond his service deadline doesn’t seem to be the best path to maintaining his confidence level.

Lopez and Jungmann both have a non-0% chance they regain previous status. Its worth noting that Lopez K:BBs were superior in AA last season than his breakout 2015.

 

I guess we are swimming in mediocre potential backend options right now and Im not sure Morton offers more than that.

[And That]

Four months out from opening day, and with Garza likely in his last year (or months?) with the club, I don't think that having the guys the Brewers currently have around should preclude the Brewers from adding talent, if that talent comes at a value.

 

Peralta and Nelson both were good for stretches and horrible for others. I like Nelson a lot, but I wouldn't be opposed to sending him back to AAA if he starts pitching in 2017 like he finished pitching in 2016. If Peralta is pitching in the first half like he did in last year's first half, he should be moved to the pen.

 

I wouldn't let the presence of Matt Garza dictate any current roster decision. If he looks good in spring, great, if not, the Brewers cut bait. I wouldn't let the presence of Wilkerson, Suter, Lopez, or Jungmann dictate any current MLB roster decision.

 

Anderson still has an option left. If five starters show better in spring, he gets knocked down to AAA. If Hader outpitches him in AAA, Hader is up before Anderson.

 

Davies and Guerra are, to me, the only guys clearly in the 2017 rotation at the moment. And Guerra's arm is a time bomb. That leaves plenty of room for a guy like Morton.

[clancyphile]

The Phillies declined Charlie Morton's 2017 option today. His season ended early due to hamstring surgery and I fully acknowledge that he wasn't that good in 2015. He does, however, get a ton of ground balls and with the infield defense looking potentially better next season, that's a big plus. His velocity has also been consistent since he retooled his mechanics a few years ago.

 

I also acknowledge that he's going to be 33 in a few weeks, but there might be some value in giving him a two year deal assuming his asking price is less AAV than the $8 mil he made this year (or the value of his $9+ mil option for 2017).

 

I'm not inclined to sign him as a starter. Suter, Wang, Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Bickford, and Perrin are going to be getting their shots soon.

 

With his GO/AO and GB/FB ratios, I wonder if he might not be an interesting asset out of the pen. Someone like Morton becomes a guy you bring in to kill a rally with a DP ball. "Ground ball specialist," something like that. I dunno, I'm just spitballin' here.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm hoping the Brewers trade Guerra for pitching prospects. He's an injury waiting to happen. Morton seems like a good "buy-low" candidate, however by the time the Brewers are ready to contend again how good is he gonna be?

[MrTPlush]

Charlie Morton is a solid "I have no better options and no money to spend" kind of guy. His upside is pretty low for the Brewers. You are basically getting him as a flip candidate. Best case is what....3.75 type pitcher? That from a guy who missed all of last year, is old, and little extended track record. Even if he pitches well his value probably isn't all that high.

 

I'm also not as high on next years infield defense like you are. Arica is good, but the rest? Surely not good enough I want to bring in ground ball pitchers solely for that reason alone.

[adambr2]

I just don't really see the point. Morton seems like exactly the kind of guy that we would be looking to sell right now if he was here on a 2 year contract. If we were on the brink of contention and needed to plug a rotation hole, then sure, makes sense. But right now? We've got numerous arms that may be part of a future contending rotation and I'd much rather spend the next year or two auditioning them.

[clancyphile]

I just don't really see the point. Morton seems like exactly the kind of guy that we would be looking to sell right now if he was here on a 2 year contract. If we were on the brink of contention and needed to plug a rotation hole, then sure, makes sense. But right now? We've got numerous arms that may be part of a future contending rotation and I'd much rather spend the next year or two auditioning them.

 

For the rotation, you are right. Suter, Woodruff, Hader, Wang, Bickford, Ortiz, Perrin, and even the two Jorges (Lopez and Ortega) all deserve a shot.

 

But for the bullpen, though, Morton's GB/FB and GO/FO ratios are very intriguing.

 

Having a "ground ball" specialist in the pen could be very useful.

[ZBTMP]

That leaves plenty of room for a guy like Morton.

 

I'd be fine bringing him in on a minor league deal to get a look at, but I think it is probably going to take a MLB contract (~5 million) with the bleak SP market and I'm not ready to do that for a guy who Im not even sure is definitively one of the 5 best starters we will have.

Even in his prime, he hasn't been able to accumulate 2 WAR in any season. It also has me leery that his success came under Searage. I'm not sure I can quantify a pitching coach, and hopefully Johnson gets to the point that I can say the Brewers aren't at a disadvantage in this department. But I don't have as much faith in Johnson getting the best out of pitcher as Searage yet.

I guess if I am going to spend 5 million, I'd rater throw it at a potential backend bullpen option.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd rather take a shot at a lefty like Travis Wood, who's proven he can deliver out of the pen if the young arms show they are ready. Wood won't be cheap either but really, other than Garza, who hopefully won't be around long, the investment in the pitching staff is minimal right now. Maybe a bargain lefty like a Tommy Milone would be worth a look on a minor league deal as well. Another option is to look for an injury reclamation. Henderson Alvarez is a guy that fits that description. He'll be 2 years removed from shoulder surgery in 2017.

[Roderick]

Four months out from opening day, and with Garza likely in his last year (or months?) with the club, I don't think that having the guys the Brewers currently have around should preclude the Brewers from adding talent, if that talent comes at a value.

 

Peralta and Nelson both were good for stretches and horrible for others. I like Nelson a lot, but I wouldn't be opposed to sending him back to AAA if he starts pitching in 2017 like he finished pitching in 2016. If Peralta is pitching in the first half like he did in last year's first half, he should be moved to the pen.

 

I wouldn't let the presence of Matt Garza dictate any current roster decision. If he looks good in spring, great, if not, the Brewers cut bait. I wouldn't let the presence of Wilkerson, Suter, Lopez, or Jungmann dictate any current MLB roster decision.

 

Anderson still has an option left. If five starters show better in spring, he gets knocked down to AAA. If Hader outpitches him in AAA, Hader is up before Anderson.

 

Davies and Guerra are, to me, the only guys clearly in the 2017 rotation at the moment. And Guerra's arm is a time bomb. That leaves plenty of room for a guy like Morton.

 

All are true if we are in competition for a playoff spot in 2017. But we aren't. I would much rather use that spot to find out if the "younger" players are either not good enough, or are bullpen guys, or are true MLB starters going forward into 2018.

[And That]

I'm also not as high on next years infield defense like you are. Arica is good, but the rest? Surely not good enough I want to bring in ground ball pitchers solely for that reason alone.

A full year of Arcia at is a vast, vast improvement over 2/3 of a season of Villar at SS. And Villar's work at third was so shoddy that he tanked an otherwise decent performance there from Perez and Hill.

 

I think it's also plausible that Villar could be better than Gennett at second base.

 

So yes, I do think there will be a drastic improvement on the infield, if mostly on the left side.

[And That]

I would much rather use that spot to find out if the "younger" players are either not good enough, or are bullpen guys, or are true MLB starters going forward into 2018.

But who are these younger players that need a shot next year (and I know you used quotation marks)? Chase Anderson will be 29. Aaron Wilkerson will be 28 (he's only a few weeks younger than Peralta). Nelson will be 28 (he's only a few weeks younger than Wilkerson). Nelson and Peralta both have pretty clear MLB track records at this point.

 

Davies I'm all for having in the rotation. Hader has the ability to push his way into the rotation, should he pitch to his potential.

 

Taylor Jungmann, in my humble opinion, sucks. And will be 27. Ditto for Suter.

 

I don't think you plan around Wei-Chung Wang.

 

Woodruff/Lopez/Ortiz/Bickford are not realistic 2017 options at this point. That could change during the year, but then again look at what happened to Lopez this season. It's easier to go backward than it is to go forward in this game.

 

Signing a guy like Morton doesn't need to a pivot towards contention. The Brewers are still in a position, much like last year, where if they can grab talent at a value, they should do it. And if Morton doesn't make the rotation, his stuff probably plays up in the bullpen a little bit.

[MKE81]

Arcia is the best IF no doubt. Villar at 2b is an upgrade from Scooter across the board - athleticism, range, arm, footwork around the bag/turning DP's, makes smarter decisions. I'd call them the same on routine grounders hit right at them. 3b I'd assume is an upgrade from Villar, Hill was pretty solid given his age, Perez is solid in general there. IF will be better especially if they get a 3b who is pretty decent in the field.

 

I personally wouldn't sign Morton but I understand why other's would. I'd be intrigued with him in the pen though. The Brewers have already said Nelson, Guerra, Peralta, Davies, Garza, Anderson are the 6 guys in contention for rotation spots - clearly that can change but Hader still needs a spot and nobody should block him. Lopez could be an option otherwise the pen. Jungmann needs to be traded. Suter is NOT a rotation option. Wang I'd protect but he's nowhere near the same class as Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Bickford and I think Davies will always be better than him as well. But, he could still be a decent piece at the back of a rotation.

[adambr2]

I just don't really see the point. Morton seems like exactly the kind of guy that we would be looking to sell right now if he was here on a 2 year contract. If we were on the brink of contention and needed to plug a rotation hole, then sure, makes sense. But right now? We've got numerous arms that may be part of a future contending rotation and I'd much rather spend the next year or two auditioning them.

 

For the rotation, you are right. Suter, Woodruff, Hader, Wang, Bickford, Ortiz, Perrin, and even the two Jorges (Lopez and Ortega) all deserve a shot.

 

But for the bullpen, though, Morton's GB/FB and GO/FO ratios are very intriguing.

 

Having a "ground ball" specialist in the pen could be very useful.

 

The problem with that is, Morton's market will be based on him being a starter. I don't know exactly what that will be, but in a weak starting pitcher FA class, I'd guess it'll be at least 6-7M a year if not more.

 

No way are we paying Morton 6-7M a season to be a middle relief groundball specialist.

[Roderick]

I would much rather use that spot to find out if the "younger" players are either not good enough, or are bullpen guys, or are true MLB starters going forward into 2018.

But who are these younger players that need a shot next year (and I know you used quotation marks)? Chase Anderson will be 29. Aaron Wilkerson will be 28 (he's only a few weeks younger than Peralta). Nelson will be 28 (he's only a few weeks younger than Wilkerson). Nelson and Peralta both have pretty clear MLB track records at this point.

 

Davies I'm all for having in the rotation. Hader has the ability to push his way into the rotation, should he pitch to his potential.

 

Taylor Jungmann, in my humble opinion, sucks. And will be 27. Ditto for Suter.

 

I don't think you plan around Wei-Chung Wang.

 

Woodruff/Lopez/Ortiz/Bickford are not realistic 2017 options at this point. That could change during the year, but then again look at what happened to Lopez this season. It's easier to go backward than it is to go forward in this game.

 

Signing a guy like Morton doesn't need to a pivot towards contention. The Brewers are still in a position, much like last year, where if they can grab talent at a value, they should do it. And if Morton doesn't make the rotation, his stuff probably plays up in the bullpen a little bit.

 

Yes, I put quote marks to indicate not necessarily actually young. Young in that I don't know what you will get from them.

 

If the Brewers mgmt thinks Anderson, Nelson and Peralta have pitched the last 2-3 years what they are basically can, then I agree there is not great loss by not saving a spot for them. In fact, they should actually let Peralta go before arbitration as he isn't going to deserve what he will get.

 

But I think the Brewers would like to see if they can find something to push these #5/#6 type pitchers to a #3 pitcher. It isn't like they haven't shown flashes.

 

I'm not advocating bringing up anyone like Hader before their time. I think Suter and the loser of the Nelson/Perlta/Anderson will be the emergency starters in the bullpen. I can be done with Jungmann also, I am of the same opinion. If he doesn't cost us a player to rule 5, then fine we can see what he comes to spring training with.

[LouisEly]

Anderson was mediocre enough in the second half that they will probably not be ready to move on.

Which Anderson are you referring to? Because Chase Anderson put up a 3.02 ERA and 2.65 K/BB in the 2nd half of last season. That's a bit better than "mediocre".

[MrTPlush]

I missed what exactly the point of picking up Charlie Morton is. What does he provide value wise that the 10+ in house options can't?

[adambr2]

Anderson was mediocre enough in the second half that they will probably not be ready to move on.

Which Anderson are you referring to? Because Chase Anderson put up a 3.02 ERA and 2.65 K/BB in the 2nd half of last season. That's a bit better than "mediocre".

 

Only real knock on Anderson is that he's not much of an innings eater. If he can go deeper into games and give us 170 innings a year instead of 150, he's actually a heck of a good #5 starter. Certainly no reason to move on from him especially as he'll be much cheaper than a similar free agent pitcher would be. IMO guys like Anderson are the reason we don't need to sign guys like Morton.

[And That]

I missed what exactly the point of picking up Charlie Morton is. What does he provide value wise that the 10+ in house options can't?

Please name the 11 or more in-house options.

[MrTPlush]

I missed what exactly the point of picking up Charlie Morton is. What does he provide value wise that the 10+ in house options can't?

Please name the 11 or more in-house options.

 

10 is obviously an exaggeration, but all 6 of the current starters right off the bat. Yes, including Garza. I would put Hader on the depth chart before him and heck probably Wang too. So hypothetically Morton would be #7 on the depth chart at best and at worst #9 if you don't want to block younger players.

 

Where is the upside here? Is it honestly better than the upside of the 6 guys we have now(value wise)? Is it worth blocking a rotation spot Hader will need at some point next year?

[And That]

So by 11 you mean 6. Got it.

 

Please see explanation about how this move has nothing to do with Josh Hader elsewhere in the thread. Morton is a better MLB pitcher than Wang.

 

You're saying Garza/Nelson/Peralta/Anderson are all obviously better than Morton? I don't think so. That group of pitchers is not close to good enough to not bring in competition.

[MrTPlush]

So by 11 you mean 6. Got it.

 

Please see explanation about how this move has nothing to do with Josh Hader elsewhere in the thread. Morton is a better MLB pitcher than Wang.

 

You're saying Garza/Nelson/Peralta/Anderson are all obviously better than Morton? I don't think so. That group of pitchers is not close to good enough to not bring in competition.

 

All of those guys have higher potential value than Morton...though Garza may be about even as both have done nothing the last two seasons.

 

Who in that rotation are you kicking out in favor of Morton? We are talking about the same Morton who barely played last year and was horrible in 2015, right?

 

Maybe if we trade a starter not named Garza he could make our rotation, but even then what is Morton providing that I can't hope Garza does? Both could probably give you a sub 4.00 ERA if you get lucky, but both are coming off a poor two year stretch while they are over 30.

[And That]

That he missed last year due to a non-arm injury is precisely why you might be able to get him at a value. Anyway, Mr. Lucky To Get a 4.00 ERA compares this way since 2011, when he drastically altered his mechanics:

 

ERA Since 2011

Charlie Morton: 3.97 (3.86 xFIP)

Matt Garza: 4.07 (3.84 xFIP)

Wily Peralta 4.18 (4.05 xFIP)

Chase Anderson 4.26 (4.25 xFIP)

Jimmy Nelson 4.38 (4.38 xFIP)

 

He's apparently the only Mr. Sub-4 ERA of that group.

 

Morton also had the second highest GB% over that timespan for all pitchers with at least 500 innings. (Keuchel is first.)

 

Peralta, Anderson and Nelson are all in their late 20s and we know what they are for the most part. Which is, apparently worse than Morton.

 

Edit: Also just saw that Nelson lead all of baseball in walks issued in 2016. Did not know that.

 

Edit 2: Also led all of MLB (tied with Sale) in HBP. Together with the walls that's 103 free passes issued in 2016. And he didn't even need 180 innings to do it!

[adambr2]

That he missed last year due to a non-arm injury is precisely why you might be able to get him at a value. Anyway, Mr. Lucky To Get a 4.00 ERA compares this way since 2011, when he drastically altered his mechanics:

 

ERA Since 2011

Charlie Morton: 3.97 (3.86 xFIP)

Matt Garza: 4.07 (3.84 xFIP)

Wily Peralta 4.18 (4.05 xFIP)

Chase Anderson 4.26 (4.25 xFIP)

Jimmy Nelson 4.38 (4.38 xFIP)

 

He's apparently the only Mr. Sub-4 ERA of that group.

 

Morton also had the second highest GB% over that timespan for all pitchers with at least 500 innings. (Keuchel is first.)

 

Peralta, Anderson and Nelson are all in their late 20s and we know what they are for the most part. Which is, apparently worse than Morton.

 

Edit: Also just saw that Nelson lead all of baseball in walks issued in 2016. Did not know that.

 

I disagree that we know what Peralta, Nelson, and even Anderson are. All 3 I think have the potential to be better than what they were in 2015, especially Peralta and Nelson. Both Peralta and Anderson showed pretty big second half momentum to me.

 

Morton having a slightly better ERA or FIP since 2011 isn't a very big selling point to me. At 33 I don't see Morton likely being a part of the next contending Brewers. All of Peralta, Anderson, and Nelson have chances to be, which to me gives a lot more reason to continue to give them chances rather than spending valuable money in free agency on a guy who will more or less just be another guy among that group.