BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Post-Season Edition

[reillymcshane]

Wondering if anyone saw Keith Law's Top 40 selections -- specifically, where any Brewers slotted (I'm assuming Brinson and Ray are in here somewhere).

 

Thanks.

[CrewCut]

Ray was 34, Brinson was 38.

[reillymcshane]

Ray was 34, Brinson was 38.

gracias.

[MadThinker88]

I spotted the latest SportingNews Yearbook for 2017 Baseball today. I'm guessing it went to press in mid-December (post winter meetings, before Edwin E signed with the Tribe) due to some of the predictions/ write-ups.

 

For 2017, they pick the Brewers for a 4th place finish, basically repeating the 2016 finish order in the NL Central. Normally the mag only lists top 10 prospects per organization. This year they went 20 deep per organization and did a ranking of the various farm systems. I was stunned it listed the Brewers farm as 13th overall and behind St.Louis (#8) and Cinci (#9) in the division. I feel that was a little low but the reasoning is based on development of players once they are acquired (via draft, trade or int'l signing).

 

The Farm items were done by David Rawnsley of Perfect Game.

As for the Brewer top 20 prospects here they are:

1. Brinson

2. Ray

3. Hader

4. Ortiz

5. Bickford

6. Dubon

7. I. Diaz

8. Diplan

9. G. Lara 3B

10. B. Woodruff

11. B. Phillps

12. T. Clark

13. L. Erceg

14. C. Burnes

15. J. Pennington (from Thornburg deal)

16. D. Orimoloye

17. R. Cordell

18. J. Lopez

19. C. Ponce

20. Devin Williams

[Eye Black]

I was stunned it listed the Brewers farm as 13th overall and behind St.Louis (#8) and Cinci (#9) in the division. I feel that was a little low but the reasoning is based on development of players once they are acquired (via draft, trade or int'l signing).

 

The Farm items were done by David Rawnsley of Perfect Game.

Well last year Rawnsley had the Brewers ranked the 21st farm system in baseball in The Sporting News annual, so that's progress! I think he is the evaluator lowest on the system.

[reillymcshane]

Brewcrewball put together all the rankings and analysis by K Law on their site:

 

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/1/28/14424312/milwaukee-brewers-have-8-players-ranked-in-top-100-prospects-by-keith-law-espn

 

It's a good read.

[Greenleaf1]

Only 5 Brewers on the MLB.com Top 100

 

65. Isan Diaz

62. Luis Ortiz

38. Josh Hader

 

Not done announcing yet but I'm sure Ray/Brinson will be yet to come.

 

Not a great showing for us. I'm guessing Bickford is off mostly because of the suspension. Clark/Phillips just didn't have strong enough showings in 2016.

[adambr2]

Diaz 65 and Ortiz 62 on MLB Pipeline rankings.

 

They aren't into the top 50 yet but would safely assume at this point that there will be no Phillips, no Clark, no Woodruff, no Erceg, no Bickford.

[adambr2]

Only 5 Brewers on the MLB.com Top 100

 

65. Isan Diaz

62. Luis Ortiz

38. Josh Hader

 

Not done announcing yet but I'm sure Ray/Brinson will be yet to come.

 

Not a great showing for us. I'm guessing Bickford is off mostly because of the suspension. Clark/Phillips just didn't have strong enough showings in 2016.

 

Yeah, pretty underwhelming but Baseball America will probably have a different opinion. Either way, it's a good indication that you have to take top 100 lists with a grain of salt. You can have less top 100s and still have a much deeper farm. I think you could argue reasonably for 6 of our guys in the 101-150 range (Woodruff, Erceg, Clark, Phillips, Bickford, Dubon)

[adambr2]

Also, MLB Network apparently thinks Luis Ortiz is on the Blue Jays. Thanks much, guys.

[Greenleaf1]

30. Corey Ray

18. Lewis Brinson

 

Well that wasn't as fun to watch as I was hoping for.

[adambr2]

I really like Benintendi, but personally, if he had come up in our system instead of Boston's, I bet he's not even ranked Top 5 in the T100.

[reillymcshane]

I really like Benintendi, but personally, if he had come up in our system instead of Boston's, I bet he's not even ranked Top 5 in the T100.

I know what you mean.

 

Example - why is James Kaprielian - the 16th pick in the draft - rated #57 on the MLB Pipeline - which is a higher ranking than the #3, #6, #8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14 and #15 picks? How'd that happen? Was it the the amazing workload he had after the draft - all 18 innings pitched? Or perhaps it was because of the strained flexor muscle in his forearm.

 

Or maybe it was simply because he was a Yankee.

[Mass Haas]

Top Brewers prospect Lewis Brinson thinks this is his year

Kyle Lobner, MilwaukeeRecord.com

 

Be sure to scroll down to Kyle's self-deprecating "About the Author", too. You rock, Kyle.

[foamboy1]

I really like Benintendi, but personally, if he had come up in our system instead of Boston's, I bet he's not even ranked Top 5 in the T100.

I know what you mean.

 

Example - why is James Kaprielian - the 16th pick in the draft rated #57 in the league last year - suddenly higher ranked than the #3, #6, #8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14 and #15 picks? How'd that happen? Was it the the amazing workload he had after the draft - all 18 innings pitched? Or perhaps it was because of the strained flexor muscle in his forearm.

 

Or maybe it was simply because he was a Yankee.

 

One of the funniest posts I've read in awhile.

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure if all top prospect lists are supposed to go in here but definitely give this one a read:

 

http://2080baseball.com/2017/01/2017-orgrev-mil/

 

Nick Faleris and Dave DeFreitas (among others) are doing really good things at 2080 Baseball and this is the most insightful prospect evaluation I've seen for the Brewers, possibly ever. These guys, who are actual scouts, certainly did their homework.

 

I'm sure they're linked elsewhere but they also have really good features up on Corey Ray and Trent Clark.

[Mass Haas]

2017 Prospect Projections: NL Central

Sam Dykstra, MiLB.com

 

This is the fourth in a six-part series that uses FanGraphs' Steamer600 projections to look at how prospects would fare over a full Major League season. The system bases its forecast on 600 plate appearances for position players, 450 plate appearances for catchers, 200 innings for starting pitchers and 65 innings for relievers -- taking into account age, past performance and previous Minor League levels, among other factors.

[Mass Haas]

I'm not sure if all top prospect lists are supposed to go in here but definitely give this one a read:

 

http://2080baseball.com/2017/01/2017-orgrev-mil/

 

Nick Faleris and Dave DeFreitas (among others) are doing really good things at 2080 Baseball and this is the most insightful prospect evaluation I've seen for the Brewers, possibly ever. These guys, who are actual scouts, certainly did their homework.

 

I'm sure they're linked elsewhere but they also have really good features up on Corey Ray and Trent Clark.

 

AUDIO: Here is the 2080 podcast which follows up on their excellent work above (It's Episode 7).

[adambr2]

When does Baseball America release their top 100?

[JDBrewCrew]

BP Annual Top 101

 

12) Brinson

19) Hader

41) Ray

59) Diaz

68) Ortiz

75) Phillips

99) Clark

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, I see the MLB posted it's top 100 and team's top 30 comes out later in the month. 5 in top 65. But nothing near bottom of top 100 just those 5. You know the prospects that missed on the top 100 list are close. I wouldn't be surprised there's 4 within their next 10.

 

24 on the list have MLB experience, 3 of the top 5 will unqualify themselves in 1st week of season. Another 3 potentially in 1st week as well. And 3-4 in first month, but that's if they are on the 25man roster upon Opening day.

 

The idea of Clark being higher up than Phillips in many rankings goes with the notion of Clark being a 1st round pick, while Phillips was a 6th. That's how guys like Jungmann and Bradley get listed in the top 100 briefly before reality kicks in. Somehow Walker Buehler is making the top 100 when he's at 3IP for his Professional career for a 24th 2015 pick. Way to ignore Woodruff's 2016 season and realize Buehler has 3more years likely to "Earn" and be in a top 100 list.

 

Nottingham makes the 10th best Catcher for his position with an overall of 45. Diaz would be 4th in 2b ranking, but they apparently are sticking him at SS who just misses the top 10 there.

 

Feb 23rd when they come out with NL Central top 30 team ranks. Will get an idea how close names are to top 100 6-12. The name that surprises me to not get top 100 ranked is Marcos Diplan. The guy was #8 ranked during the International signing period class he was in. Actually producing solid results and yet being left off still. I'd think if he were a Cub or Red Sox prospect, he'd be top 75 in the rankings if not top 40 because of the bias. They found a way to put Jeimer Candelario in the top 100 with an overall scouting grade of 55 when he has just 2 tools ranking 55 as his highest. Or SF getting Christian Arroyo ranked top 100 after a full season at AA posting below a .700 OPS.

[And That]

FWIW... by my count the Brewers have 8 guys who average a 55 OFP or higher, based on various legitimate scouting sources (not including BA, whose 2017 handbook is shipping within the next few days). Those are generally the guys who would have the best shot to crack top 100 lists.

 

That group, in order of highest OFP to lowest:

-Lewis Brinson (the only player to average 60)

-Corey Ray

-Isan Diaz

-Josh Hader

-Lucas Erceg

-Luis Ortiz

-Phil Bickford

-Trent Clark

 

I can see the arguments against Erceg (short track record) and Bickford (ganja), but based on scout-sourcing those other 6 guys should be in or extremely close to the top 100.

 

The Brewers have 11 other guys averaging a 50 OFP, which is generally not enough to make top 100 lists, though individual opinions of scouts may vary, so a couple of these guys have popped up:

 

Again in order:

-Braden Webb

-Brandon Woodruff

-Brett Phillips

-Cody Ponce

-Corbin Burnes

-Devin Williams

-Jacob Nottingham (propped up by BPro's last report on him, which was a 60; removing that, Nottingham is a 45)

-Jorge Lopez

-Marcos Diplan

-Mauricio Dubon

-Ryan Cordell

[Eye Black]

Received the Baseball America Prospect Handbook today. The Brewers farm system talent ranking moved up one spot from last year to 8th. The Brewers ranked dead last in Baseball America's 2011 rankings, and remained among the bottom ten teams from 2011-2015. Now the Brewers have finished in the top ten for the second straight year.

 

Here is the Brewers annual spot among the Baseball America farm system talent rankings over the past seven years:

 

2011 - 30th

2012 - 25th

2013 - 22nd

2014 - 29th

2015 - 21st

2016 - 9th

2017 - 8th

 

The Brewers are the second highest ranked in the division, just behind the Pirates who were ranked 7th. Other NL Central team rankings are the Cardinals at 12th, Reds at 13th, and Cubs at 16th.

 

The BA Prospect Handbook introduction page notes the cutoff date for transactions to be accounted for in the book this year was December 9th.

[Eye Black]

I will be very curious to see how Lewis Brinson and Josh Hader stack up in the Baseball America top 100 prospect rankings scheduled to be released next week. One observations from the Baseball America Prospect Handbook is that Baseball America's primary contributers appear to be slightly higher on Hader than Brinson. Each of their top five contributers (Ben Badler, JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, John Manual, and Kyle Glaser) list their personal top 50 prospect rankings. All five of them have both players ranked in their top 50's, and all of them have Josh Hader ranked above Lewis Brinson. Hader's average ranking among them is 23.6 while Brinson's is 32.2. This is a little curious because Lewis Brinson is ranked the top prospect in the Brewers organizational rankings, but I believe the top ten rankings (released earlier this winter) include some influence from Tom Haudricourt. Among the BA contributers, both Ben Badler and Kyle Glaser have four Brewers ranked among their top 50 prospects in baseball.

[And That]

The Brewers have 11 other guys averaging a 50 OFP, which is generally not enough to make top 100 lists, though individual opinions of scouts may vary, so a couple of these guys have popped up:

 

Again in order:

-Braden Webb

-Brandon Woodruff

-Brett Phillips

-Cody Ponce

-Corbin Burnes

-Devin Williams

-Jacob Nottingham (propped up by BPro's last report on him, which was a 60; removing that, Nottingham is a 45)

-Jorge Lopez

-Marcos Diplan

-Mauricio Dubon

-Ryan Cordell

With the Baseball America prospect grades added in, the 50 OFP list expands by two to 13:

-Josh Pennington

-Gilbert Lara

 

The final major update is MLB Pipeline, which will post their new Brewers list on the 23rd.