BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Post-Season Edition

[patrickgpe]

baseball america's top 10 brewer prospects are released tomorrow, will be interesting to see how we match up to BA

[JDBrewCrew]

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

 

1. Lewis Brinson, of

2. Josh Hader, lhp

3. Luis Ortiz, rhp

4. Corey Ray, of

5. Isan Diaz, ss/2b

6. Trent Clark, of

7. Brandon Woodruff, rhp

8. Phil Bickford, rhp

9. Lucas Erceg, 3b

10. Marcos Diplan, rhp

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects/#iKxTl2fxroxEMJj4.99

[zjl3]

Tom did a pretty good job. We had the same players in the top 5, but in different orders. We each had the same 9 players, but he had Marcos, while I had Brett Phillips.

[And That]

Not going to paste all of the scouting reports, but there was an interesting comp of Erceg to Matt Carpenter.

[Mass Haas]

Disciples of Uecker write-up this AM

 

***

 

Ray Montgomery via MLB Network Radio

[And That]

Hard to disagree with any of the rankings, though I firmly believe Phillips is still a top 10 prospect.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I'd put Phillips in as a top 10 over Clark. Other than that, list looks about right.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well can now get excited on the Brandon Woodruff train. The recognition just came. Diaz,Diplan i fully expected. Im surprised they ranked Ray ahead of him. Erceg, what a draft choice.

As to Phillips missing the top 10, he's obviously right near that 10 spot. But truthfully he's become your odd man out to make the team after his season last year. Santana, Broxton, Brinson, Braun. He needs 2 to go on DL to get his shot. And then hes got Ray, Clark, Harrison, Orimoloye breathing down his neck to overtake his position of depth. Think hes just at a point, set him in the 11-15 and his future becomes one where hes traded down the road. Only breaking out would keep him in line to make the Brewers ML team. As down as I have been though to Ray, if that comes true, Phillips still has his Lh bat shot to fall in the 4th,5th OF roster spot, before hes overtaken in the pecking order

 

 

Edit add: Bickford was a consensus top 100 prospect last year, and I wouldn't think his performance would dictate a drop out of the top 100. So, are we looking at 9 top 100 prospects preseason 2017? 10? or even 11? And that's being serious. All 10 seem realistic to me.

[FVBrewerFan]

I would add Dubon and Taylor Williams, and bump down Clark and Bickford. But that's nit-picky, I may be the only one who would rank those two as Top 10. Perfectly legit Top 10 list there.

[MKE81]

Phillips is a better prospect than Clark at this point. They were both 2-2.5yrs young for level and Phillips outperformed him almost across the board while being a better defender and having a cannon. Somehow Clark drops 3 spots from last year and Phillips drops 8+ and out of the Top 10. Phillips also had excellent 2014/2015 seasons spanning through a half season at AA. Phillips and Dubon over Erceg and Diplan. I like Erceg and Diplan a lot but I don't think at this point they should be rated higher than Phillips and Dubon, both whom have had success at the AA level while still being a similar age to Erceg. Diplan was outstanding in A at 19 but I think he should come in at 11 just because of the talent and depth and because he hasn't had success above A yet.

 

Not sure why I expected what I think considering this list last year at this time had Taylor/Coulter at 7-8 while keeping Hader and Davies outside the Top 10. Both who had great success at the AA level or higher while being around the same age.

[packer822]

my top 10

based on keeping tabs everynite during the season and watching many game on the milb webcasts would look like this……1..brinson…2..hader…3..woodruff…4..diaz…5..ortiz…6..erceg…7..lopez…8..diplan…9..d.williams…10.. ponce….i just haven’t seen the hitting from clark or ray to put them in my top 10 yet….and am not giving up on lopez yet….i think he will bounce back and be in the show sometime in 17….also i think most of ponces struggles were because of nagging injuries

[MadThinker88]

A note from another BA article posted today..

 

DOWN ON THE FARM: After the farm system had a big year in 2015, Milwaukee stumbled in ’16, with its domestic affiliates going just 302-379 (.443), second-worst in baseball. Prospects such as Arcia, righthander Jorge Lopez (3-11, 5.78 overall) and outfielder Brett Phillips (.229/.332/.397) faltered, while high Class A Brevard County lost a minor league-worst 97 games. Shortstop Isan Diaz led the low Class A Midwest League with 20 homers, while righthander Brandon Woodruff went 14-9, 2.68 and led the minors with 173 strikeouts.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-insider/#iUEXHrKeqDFJ8yAo.97

 

Getting the minor league squads on track & more successful should produce a culture of success, more development opportunities (in form of playoff races and playoff games) and most importantly prospects more ready to contribute once they get to the majors...

[Jenkins5]

my top 10

based on keeping tabs everynite during the season and watching many game on the milb webcasts would look like this……1..brinson…2..hader…3..woodruff…4..diaz…5..ortiz…6..erceg…7..lopez…8..diplan…9..d.williams…10.. ponce….i just haven’t seen the hitting from clark or ray to put them in my top 10 yet….and am not giving up on lopez yet….i think he will bounce back and be in the show sometime in 17….also i think most of ponces struggles were because of nagging injuries

 

I actually think that if Lopez was to start in MLB when spring training I think he would be really solid. He starts in AA, he will dominate. He goes to Springs....it won't be pretty.

 

Hard to believe Phillips goes from top 20-50 prospect by BA to not even being Top 10 over Clark. Amazing how fast a bad season can drop you off radar.

[zjl3]

Wouldn't be the first outfield prospect to fall off (coulter and taylor)

[Jenkins5]

Wouldn't be the first outfield prospect to fall off (coulter and taylor)

 

Taylor & Coulter were just twice Top 50 prospects. Coulter's placement is what killed him. I have complained since last April because I believe he would have starred in Biloxi if there all season.

[pacopete4]

So far the feeling of this rebuild has not felt great because of some of the lack of success in the minors from our top guys. I remember, and I could be wrong, but when Braun/Fielder/Hart/Hardy/Gallardo and co. came up, they won a lot in the minor leagues. Maybe I am misremembering. Either way, this is a big minor league season for the Brewers.

[Outlander]

I really don't think that group won a whole heck of a lot in A or AA, seemed to have more success when they got to AAA. I don't know it seems for the most part the Brewers record in the minors is always below average, which I guess I don't care about too much until they got stuck in Colorado.

[Jenkins5]

I really don't think that group won a whole heck of a lot in A or AA, seemed to have more success when they got to AAA. I don't know it seems for the most part the Brewers record in the minors is always below average, which I guess I don't care about too much until they got stuck in Colorado.

 

They did really that much, many of them were on different levels & moved through st different speeds. Difference is those guys really didn't have bad years and forced way up. A lot of our guys haven't. At lower level we are starting to see some surging by young guys in dominate ways like Diplan, Peralta, Diaz, Erceg. You hope that continues and they don't stall out

[MKE81]

Wouldn't be the first outfield prospect to fall off (coulter and taylor)

The difference is Taylor and Coulter don't come close to having the overall skill set and potential Phillips does though. The Brewers have tweaked with his swing for some odd reason given he had excellent years in 2014 and 2015. He was still hitting 15HR not sure why they want to mess around with him in order to tap into more power when he was great spraying it everywhere. He still had an excellent 13% walk rate this year and hit for more power (based on plate appearances) than the previous 2yrs but along with that comes a higher K rate and worse contact numbers. Defensively he's just as good as anyone in the system in the OF (except maybe Brinson and his potential) and has the best arm of any OF. Just don't understand the heavy knock on him to the point he's outside the Top 10 and Top 100.

[FVBrewerFan]

Wouldn't be the first outfield prospect to fall off (coulter and taylor)

Just don't understand the heavy knock on him to the point he's outside the Top 10 and Top 100.

 

Simple, he had a bad year. Rarely do top prospects sail through with great years then take a step backwards. It doesn't mean he can't turn things around. It doesn't even mean he's not a Top 10 prospect. It's just that the system is deep and there's only room for 10. I wouldn't question it much if Phillips is on or off the list really. He's right there in the mix, and all that matters is his performance next season.

[And That]

Wouldn't be the first outfield prospect to fall off (coulter and taylor)

Just don't understand the heavy knock on him to the point he's outside the Top 10 and Top 100.

 

Simple, he had a bad year.

Except he didn't. His wOBA was top 30% in the Southern League.

[FVBrewerFan]

Would need to know who is included in that 30%. For example, does it include players who put in half a season or less and were promoted? Or guys like Coulter that came up later in the year?

 

But even at that, top 30% of a league is not top prospect territory. You're looking for top 5-10% in a league to be a top prospect- unless age is much younger for the league, etc.

 

At any rate, you're right, "bad" year was not accurate. Down year is probably more accurate.

[And That]

Would need to know who is included in that 30%.

Everyone, weighted by PA.

[And That]

But even at that, top 30% of a league is not top prospect territory.

His wOBA this year was better than Brinson in AA, better than Arcia in AAA, and better than both Clark and Ray (incidentally, Phillips is only 4 months older than Ray).

 

Did he have a below average batting average? Yes. Did he strike out too much? Yep. Did he do other things offensively that offset those shortcomings? Absolutely.

 

His batting stance needs work, and that is probably the culprit for his low BA (and BABIP, which was 30-40 about points under career average). I'm optimistic he will make the mechanical adjustments at the plate, and there is still plenty of offensive potential there, not to speak of his baserunning and arm.

[MKE81]

Agree with And That. Phillips didn't have a terrible year but no doubt it was a down year. Yes he needs to make some tweaks to his swing and get back to being consistent but there are 5 tools and he's above average to plus-plus in speed, defense, arm and none of those were knocked this year. In the entire 10 team league he finished 3rd in BB (1st in K), 4th in triples and HR, 10th in SLG and OPS, 14th in total bases and runs, 19th in OPB, 35th in BA. He was still just over 2yrs young for the level too.

 

For comparison purposes, Ian Happ is 2.5 months younger than Phillips and in the same league this year.

 

Phillips (441 AB) 229/332/725, 14 doubles, 6 triples, 16HR, 62rbi, 12SB

Happ (248 AB) 262/318/733, 14 doubles, 0 triples, 8HR, 31rbi, 6SB

 

BA report in mid-Oct lists Top 20 players in each league and they preface it by saying, just like org rankings, these are based on potential rather than performance. Like I've said, I don't get how Phillips is out of the Top 10/100 and Happ will most likely remain their Top Prospect based on that.

 

Finally, I think I've said this before but Phillips also had one bad month. "bad" probably isn't even applicable because it was that bad. Outside of July he slashed 253/351/802, 13 doubles, 5 triples, 15HR, 59rbi, 9SB in 344 AB