BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Post-Season Edition

[MrTPlush]

How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser."

 

303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.

There are always exceptions to the rule. But suggesting a guy is the exception to the rule (before he actually is the exception to the rule) is usually a really bad way determine a guy's future value.

 

I see your point, but Suter's performance so far indicates to me that as a reliever, he could be a left-handed Doug Jones as a floor. I don't think the numbers lie.

 

Do I even want to know what you think is his ceiling?

[clancyphile]

I see your point, but Suter's performance so far indicates to me that as a reliever, he could be a left-handed Doug Jones as a floor. I don't think the numbers lie.

 

Do I even want to know what you think is his ceiling?

 

A borderline #2/#3 starter.

[brewcrewdue80]

Woodruff was 1.2 years younger than the average AA player this past season. Age is not a reason to knock him down. And who cares how many years you get from a guy and when he becomes a FA? A great pitcher is a great pitcher.

 

I think if you read your description, what you are looking for/expecting is a guy who is the #1 or #2 pitching prospect in baseball. How many pitching prospects fit that definition?

 

I know and understand Woodruff is still younger than the competition at AA. But he doesn't fit star and elite younger types for that level. Who are 20/21 at that stage.

 

I like that you see what a TOR would mean SP-wise. Top 20 and 40 type in all of Baseball to fit the bill.(always my argument on Braun how he fits that #1b/2a type)

 

I argue and beg for the types to get in the talk and hype and potential for a TOR. De Leon's numbers don't match up with Woodruff, sure, but is the Stuff/ceiling there and higher? Like I said in my prior post, what is Woodruffs #2 and #3 offerings so he can get through the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Which one is shining now suddenly that wasn't prior to 2016? De Leon doesn't just come with a velocity FB. Slider/Changeup being rated above avg both to pair with the well above avg FB.

Calling it off the top of my head, but I feel it was Nate who chimed in for Jake Arrieta before Baltimore traded him to the Cubs. Speaking to the potential and stuff he liked. That is what I am seeking. Ortiz/Bickford/Hader are all positive acquisitions that could turn up one of the types I seek. The fact that it is so few that fit that description is why I want acquire as many of those high ceiling types as possible. You can see the great, great, vast value you get when you trade a mid-summer Low-ERA SP to desperate teams. Scott Feldman netted Jake Arrieta.

Keep stock-piling these types, Their success means to the Franchises success, their Trade Value means to the Franchise's future success.

[MKE81]

Clancy, Suter's ceiling is a borderline 2/3 in rotation? He's not even close to being as good as Davies and he's not even a #2-3. If that's the case then we have 10 aces between A+ and AAA right now. Suter is nothing more than a 5-6th inning reliever. He will never be in a rotation nor at the back-end of the pen. Doug Jones and Jamie Moyer? What was the average fastball 25yrs ago vs present day? Name one current competitive team that has a late inning reliever throwing under 94 (let alone 83-85)?

 

Wang isn't even ready for MLB yet. He still needs 15+ starts in AAA. And if you trade Garza, Guerra, Chase that leaves 2 spots open joining Nelson, Peralta, Davies. Those 2 spots are going to Hader and most likely Lopez/Jungmann. So you trading those 3 guys doesn't even open the door for Suter, Wang, Cravy anyway.

[MKE81]

Great discussion. The World Series was very riveting. But, throughout, I couldn't help to think about my Brewers and what it would take to get in there.

 

Next year will be a huge year for so many of our prospects to see how they shake out. Between Woodruff, Hader, Bickford, and Ortiz, I like the potential there as starters. I am not here to knock anyone else, but I have my eye on those four in particular. I'd love to get another couple higher end guys. We have a top ten pick next year and I am going to guess that we have a good shot at another in 2018.

 

We also see how vital the bullpen is. I think we have some other pitching prospects who could project as nice bullpen arms. We will see who emerges here, but we have a number of arms, including Ponce and Devin Williams. Taylor Williams has major potential as a closer if his arm is back. Kirby is another in that camp. But, if you've got a bullpen headlined by Williams, with Ponce, Kirby, and Devin, there is some talent. I am very interested in seeing how all of these guys perform next year.

 

Besides the minor leaguers, we have some MLB pitchers who need to put their big boy pants on. I was spectacularly wrong about Jimmy Nelson. Hopefully he can get his mojo back and become a valid MLB starter.

Along with Ponce, T.Williams, Kirby I'd add Kodi to that mix.

[Austin Tatious]

Great post, BCD. Well thought out.

[Mass Haas]

MiLB.com: Josh Hader and BABIP

[clancyphile]

Clancy, Suter's ceiling is a borderline 2/3 in rotation? He's not even close to being as good as Davies and he's not even a #2-3. If that's the case then we have 10 aces between A+ and AAA right now. Suter is nothing more than a 5-6th inning reliever. He will never be in a rotation nor at the back-end of the pen. Doug Jones and Jamie Moyer? What was the average fastball 25yrs ago vs present day? Name one current competitive team that has a late inning reliever throwing under 94 (let alone 83-85)?

 

Wang isn't even ready for MLB yet. He still needs 15+ starts in AAA. And if you trade Garza, Guerra, Chase that leaves 2 spots open joining Nelson, Peralta, Davies. Those 2 spots are going to Hader and most likely Lopez/Jungmann. So you trading those 3 guys doesn't even open the door for Suter, Wang, Cravy anyway.

 

You miss my point.

 

Suter posted a 3.45 ERA in AAA over 146 innings. That's pitching half the time in Colorado Springs, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. He's gotta be doing something VERY right.

 

You seem to be focused too much on "stuff" and not enough on what he actually DOES. From what he's actually done, why not see what he does in the rotation or the back of the bullpen? Does it matter if his fastball is only 85 miles per hour when he gets hitters out? I'm not looking for someone who can post an eye-popping number on the radar. I want someone who sends their hitters back to the dugout. Suter's done that and shown far more ability to do that than Kodi Medeiros (whose ERA was just barely on the right side of 6.00 at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball - Brevard County).

[MrTPlush]

Speaking of results did you watch either of his MLB starts or any of his ones at AAA? He flat out sucks as a starter and it isn't hard to understand why. It's not that hard to have a big inning or dial in on a guy soft tossing after seeing him a few times in a game. He will never be a starter at the MLB level. It's so obvious I don't understand how you don't see it yourself as you love statistics.

 

If he is going to succeed it will be in the bullpen. More power to him to try. He did decent in that role in his short call up. Maybe he is the next guy to do good with sub par stuff.

[MKE81]

Clancy, Suter's ceiling is a borderline 2/3 in rotation? He's not even close to being as good as Davies and he's not even a #2-3. If that's the case then we have 10 aces between A+ and AAA right now. Suter is nothing more than a 5-6th inning reliever. He will never be in a rotation nor at the back-end of the pen. Doug Jones and Jamie Moyer? What was the average fastball 25yrs ago vs present day? Name one current competitive team that has a late inning reliever throwing under 94 (let alone 83-85)?

 

Wang isn't even ready for MLB yet. He still needs 15+ starts in AAA. And if you trade Garza, Guerra, Chase that leaves 2 spots open joining Nelson, Peralta, Davies. Those 2 spots are going to Hader and most likely Lopez/Jungmann. So you trading those 3 guys doesn't even open the door for Suter, Wang, Cravy anyway.

 

You miss my point.

 

Suter posted a 3.45 ERA in AAA over 146 innings. That's pitching half the time in Colorado Springs, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in professional baseball. He's gotta be doing something VERY right.

 

You seem to be focused too much on "stuff" and not enough on what he actually DOES. From what he's actually done, why not see what he does in the rotation or the back of the bullpen? Does it matter if his fastball is only 85 miles per hour when he gets hitters out? I'm not looking for someone who can post an eye-popping number on the radar. I want someone who sends their hitters back to the dugout. Suter's done that and shown far more ability to do that than Kodi Medeiros (whose ERA was just barely on the right side of 6.00 at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball - Brevard County).

My baseball related comprehension skills are quite strong so I understood what and why you said what you did. And "stuff" does matter. Again, Suter is a fastball/change up pitcher and that's exactly why his numbers look better than everyone else in AAA. The conditions don't affect either of those. He will get rocked as a starter in MLB (already has) and typically closers have some of the best "stuff" - as in 94-99 with nasty offspeed. There's a reason that "stuff" plays well in the final 1-2 innings instead of 83-85 with no movement and a good change. He knows how to pitch, he works quickly and is a lefty so he has things going for him but he will have to carve out a role as either a lefty specialist or 5-6th inning guy. The average AAA hitters aren't anywhere near as good as the average MLB hitters either. This is the reality of it whether you want to believe it or not

[Mass Haas]

Brewers system bolstered by recent trades

Lucroy, Segura deals deliver depth to Milwaukee's prospect talent pool

By Chris Tripodi / MiLB.com

 

This offseason, MiLB.com is honoring the players -- regardless of age or prospect status -- who had the best seasons in their organization. We're taking a look at each team to determine the outstanding seasons in Minor League Baseball.

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO via MiLB.com: Brewers top prospect Lewis Brinson calls into the Minor League Baseball podcast to talk about his recent addition to the 40-man roster, his trade from the Rangers and, of course, his favorite Thanksgiving dishes. Also, Tyler Maun and Sam Dykstra discuss other prospects added to 40-man rosters, and Ben Hill is back from vacation to bring you updates on the Buies Creek Astros.

 

FYI - The Brinson audio is at the 23:15 minute mark, although the gentlemen do get in several Brewer system mentions prior to that point.

 

***

 

Via Dan Zielinski on his website The3rdManIn.com: Text of Q&A with MLBPipeline's Jim Callis

[pacopete4]

Our preseason rankings should be a lot more fun. Not that they weren't already.

[reillymcshane]

If you look at MLB Pipeline, here are the number of 50+ valued players in each system:

 

Brewers - 20

Padres - 18

Yankees - 18

Athletics - 16

Rays - 15

Reds - 14

Braves - 14

Phillies - 14

Cubs - 13

Rockies - 12

Dodgers - 11

Astros - 11

Mets - 11

Cardinals - 11

White Sox - 10

Blue Jays - 10

Twins - 10

Mariners - 9

Rangers - 9

Pirates - 8

Indians - 7

Angels - 6

Tigers - 6

Nationals - 6

Dbacks - 5

Red Sox - 5

Giants - 5

Royals - 5

Orioles - 4

Marlins - 4

 

Obviously, this doesn't take into account really high end prospects who are 60 or whatever. Those guys are rare and very valuable. But it does show the immense depth we have of solid prospects.

[MadThinker88]

If you look at MLB Pipeline, here are the number of 50+ valued players in each system:

 

Brewers - 20

Padres - 18

Yankees - 18

Athletics - 16

Rays - 15

Reds - 14

Braves - 14

Phillies - 14

Cubs - 13

Rockies - 12

Dodgers - 11

Astros - 11

Mets - 11

Cardinals - 11

White Sox - 10

Blue Jays - 10

Twins - 10

Mariners - 9

Rangers - 9

Pirates - 8

Indians - 7

Angels - 6

Tigers - 6

Nationals - 6

Dbacks - 5

Red Sox - 5

Giants - 5

Royals - 5

Orioles - 4

Marlins - 4

 

Obviously, this doesn't take into account really high end prospects who are 60 or whatever. Those guys are rare and very valuable. But it does show the immense depth we have of solid prospects.

 

Was this counting done before the winter meetings or after it started (& moves made). I'd think some changes would result with the various trades...

[reillymcshane]

If you look at MLB Pipeline, here are the number of 50+ valued players in each system:

 

Brewers - 20

Padres - 18

Yankees - 18

Athletics - 16

Rays - 15

Reds - 14

Braves - 14

Phillies - 14

Cubs - 13

Rockies - 12

Dodgers - 11

Astros - 11

Mets - 11

Cardinals - 11

White Sox - 10

Blue Jays - 10

Twins - 10

Mariners - 9

Rangers - 9

Pirates - 8

Indians - 7

Angels - 6

Tigers - 6

Nationals - 6

Dbacks - 5

Red Sox - 5

Giants - 5

Royals - 5

Orioles - 4

Marlins - 4

 

Obviously, this doesn't take into account really high end prospects who are 60 or whatever. Those guys are rare and very valuable. But it does show the immense depth we have of solid prospects.

 

Was this counting done before the winter meetings or after it started (& moves made). I'd think some changes would result with the various trades...

I believe it was up to date. I just looked at it a couple of hours ago.

[MKE81]

If you look at MLB Pipeline, here are the number of 50+ valued players in each system:

 

Brewers - 20

Padres - 18

Yankees - 18

Athletics - 16

Rays - 15

Reds - 14

Braves - 14

Phillies - 14

Cubs - 13

Rockies - 12

Dodgers - 11

Astros - 11

Mets - 11

Cardinals - 11

White Sox - 10

Blue Jays - 10

Twins - 10

Mariners - 9

Rangers - 9

Pirates - 8

Indians - 7

Angels - 6

Tigers - 6

Nationals - 6

Dbacks - 5

Red Sox - 5

Giants - 5

Royals - 5

Orioles - 4

Marlins - 4

 

Obviously, this doesn't take into account really high end prospects who are 60 or whatever. Those guys are rare and very valuable. But it does show the immense depth we have of solid prospects.

That 20 doesn't even include Woodruff, Kirby, Williams

[JosephC]

Braves and White Sox would be the farm systems that would be under-rated when just looking at depth. The top-end talent in the Braves system probably puts them right up there with Milwaukee in discussions about which team has the best farm system. The White Sox are probably borderline top 5 after the recent trades they made. Both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh should be a bit higher too. But overall, I think using the 50+ method probably puts about 80% of the teams right where they should be.

[LouisEly]

Was looking at the Cubs MLB Pipeline Top 30 the other day and #13 on their list is their 3rd round pick from 2016, a college pitcher who has not pitched professionally yet.

 

The Brewers 3rd round pick, a college pitcher who has not pitched professionally yet, isn't in the Brewers top 30.

 

That makes me feel good. The Cubs have a lot of young talented position players on the MLB team, but their lack of pitching prospects and the Brewers minor league depth makes me feel that the Cubs dominance in this division may not be that long.

[LouisEly]

That 20 doesn't even include Woodruff, Kirby, Williams

I don't know how they come up with some of their numbers. Freddie Peralta has FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:50, but an overall of 45. How do you have an overall of 45 with all grades being 50 or more?

 

Same with Woodruff: FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:45, overall 45. How they give a guy who walked 40 in 158 innings last year (and 33 in 108 innings the year before) a Control rating of 45 is beyond me. That's the same control rating for Cubs prospect Duane Underwood (#6 in the Cubs system) who had a walk rate of 4.3/9 (35 in 73 IP) last year.

 

This is why I don't take these prospect ratings as gospel.

[MKE81]

That 20 doesn't even include Woodruff, Kirby, Williams

I don't know how they come up with some of their numbers. Freddie Peralta has FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:50, but an overall of 45. How do you have an overall of 45 with all grades being 50 or more?

 

Same with Woodruff: FB:60/SL:50/CU:50/Control:45, overall 45. How they give a guy who walked 40 in 158 innings last year (and 33 in 108 innings the year before) a Control rating of 45 is beyond me. That's the same control rating for Cubs prospect Duane Underwood (#6 in the Cubs system) who had a walk rate of 4.3/9 (35 in 73 IP) last year.

 

This is why I don't take these prospect ratings as gospel.

Couldn't agree more, especially the Woodruff control comment. Brinson and Ray are both 55 overall yet Brinson is 60 power/run/field 55 hit/arm while Ray is 55 hit/power/field 60 run 50 arm. Dubon is 55 for everything but 40 power so apparently 40 power for a SS/2b overpowers above average for everything else. Nottingham is probably the best and most comical. 50 power/arm 45 hit 40 field 30 run but he's 50 overall. I'm assuming position is factored in but some ratings are head scratchers

[MrTPlush]

Those are future values. If you are closer to the majors you are more likely to hit those future values therefor you will be more highly ranked. You have to consider not obly pitential, but where they are not.

 

Control=/=# of walks

[MilwaukeesBest]

And keep in mind MLB Pipeline is going to rerelease the rankings sometime in January and numbers from this past year do not necessarily reflect the grades these players would receive right now. Odds are players like Peralta and Woodruff will receive bumps in their overall evaluations due to their velocity/control/pitchability/etc.

[MKE81]

Current or Future projections is irrelevant. It doesn't change what we said. Woodruff has done just fine with control even before this year. How do you project Nottingham, as one example, to be an average regular overall when his individual ratings for each tool doesn't support it?

 

Kirby 60 fastball, 55 slider/change, 50 control = 45 overall. Got it

[reillymcshane]

The end scouting grade a player has does not strictly reflect an 'average' grade of the player's tools. Yes, they are absolutely a big part of the grade, but evaluators will ultimately use that final number to describe how valuable a player is on the overall player market, taking into account risk, distance to ceiling as well as other factors that might not show up in a player's tool numbers.

 

I'm not saying the ratings on Woodruff or Nottingham or anyone else are right or wrong. Just that there is more in consideration for that final rating than seems to be acknowledged.