BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Post-Season Edition

[MKE81]

I could see Clark, Burnes, Erceg start in A (although can easily see Erceg starting A+) -- Bickford, Kirby A+ -- Phillips AAA. Cordell/Brinson/Phillips is a pretty good AAA OF

[brewcrewdue80]

2 of the top 3, 5 of the top 10, and 14 of the top 25 are pitchers. Considering where the organization was just a few years ago, and considering that some feel this is the top organization in MLB in terms of prospects, that's a pretty good change.

 

I've been thinking about the same thing. Like there's a dozen guys that are on their way. The only problem is, don't really have that TOR SP. A bunch of guys you hope turn out like Kyle Hendriks did for the Cubs. Because I swear, when he came up, there was less props being given to him than what Zach Davies had. Please Lord, let the Brewers Organization luck in to one of these pitching prospects having Kyle Hendriks results at the ML level!

[reillymcshane]

2 of the top 3, 5 of the top 10, and 14 of the top 25 are pitchers. Considering where the organization was just a few years ago, and considering that some feel this is the top organization in MLB in terms of prospects, that's a pretty good change.

 

I've been thinking about the same thing. Like there's a dozen guys that are on their way. The only problem is, don't really have that TOR SP. A bunch of guys you hope turn out like Kyle Hendriks did for the Cubs. Because I swear, when he came up, there was less props being given to him than what Zach Davies had. Please Lord, let the Brewers Organization luck in to one of these pitching prospects having Kyle Hendriks results at the ML level!

Developing a top of the rotation guy can certainly entail a little luck.

 

Many very highly rated guys are your top pitchers - Kershaw, Hamels, Price, Verlander, etc., etc.

 

But guys like Hendriks, Kluber, Keuchel - not to 20 prospect types.

 

That is why you need so many pitching prospects. As noted, so many guys just flame out or get hurt. The more interesting arms you have, the better chance to find the diamond in the rough.

[nate82]

Banda & Haniger checked in at #1 & #3 on Fangraphs Diamondbacks list. Where would they have slotted in on this list? 10-15ish range?

 

 

I'm not sure Haniger would be in my top 15 and Banda would fit in the top 15. To me Haniger would be where I would put Reed if he had the same year Haniger had so somewhere in the 20-25 range. Haniger seems to look like he is in between a AAAA player and a backup OF which is where I would put Reed and Wren at.

[LouisEly]

The only problem is, don't really have that TOR SP. A bunch of guys you hope turn out like Kyle Hendriks did for the Cubs.

Not picking on you specifically, as there are plenty of others who have expressed a similar sentiment. Over the last 1.5 seasons there have been multiple scouting reports of Brandon Woodruff hitting 98 late in games, and he led all of MILB in strikeouts this past season. It took him a few games to adjust to AA - and the death of his brother probably didn't help - but over the last three months of the season his OPS-A was .373 in July over five starts (yes, that is OPS, not OBP or SLG), .563 in August (6 starts), and .333 in his one start in September.

 

His OPS-A on the season was .552 (with a .285 BABIP, so minimal if any good luck at all) and his WHIP on the season was 1.019 with a 4.33 K/BB ratio. Yes, he was an 11th round pick, but deGrom was a 9th round pick and De Leon was a 24th round pick, both out of college.

 

Given the velocity, the strikeouts, the K/BB ratio, the OPS-A, the WHIP, the low-luck-suggesting BABIP... what more do you need to see to think that no one in the Brewers minor league system has TOR potential?

 

Nevermind Hader, whose cumulative numbers at AA (181 IP, 141 H, 70 BB, 216 K, 2.73 ERA, .291 BABIP for 2016 suggesting minimal if any luck) and cumulative for 2016 (.652 OPS-A on the entire season with a .330 BABIP, suggesting some bad luck, and 11.5 K/9) were pretty darned impressive too. Hader's K rate in 2016 (11.5) was almost exactly the same as Jose De Leon's (11.6). De Leon walked fewer (2.6 vs. 3.9) but had a higher HR rate (0.9 vs 0.4), and that showed in his very small sample of major league innings this season. I'm not convinced that De Leon is that much better of a prospect than Hader.

 

TOR doesn't mean the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball. In the majors, TOR means one of the top 20 or so SPs in the majors. TOR prospect means one of the top 20 or so pitching prospects in the game, and I think the Brewers have at least one, possibly two. I don't think there are more than 20 better pitching prospects than Woodruff or Hader. There are some, but not 20.

[sveumrules]

Banda & Haniger checked in at #1 & #3 on Fangraphs Diamondbacks list. Where would they have slotted in on this list? 10-15ish range?

 

 

I'm not sure Haniger would be in my top 15 and Banda would fit in the top 15. To me Haniger would be where I would put Reed if he had the same year Haniger had so somewhere in the 20-25 range. Haniger seems to look like he is in between a AAAA player and a backup OF which is where I would put Reed and Wren at.

 

Thanks, Nate. That was kind of my read as well. Figured Banda wouldn't be any higher than Woodruff at 8, but probably would still put him around the range of Lopez to Peralta at 12 to 16. For Haniger I thought his best upper and lower end comps in our system were probably Cordell (#17) & Reed (unranked) depending on how much or little one buys into his mechanical changes this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Louis, It's more a feeling of the outside world doesn't give a, "He's a #2 for sure, and if he figures so and such out, we're looking at a #1"

It's just always kinda read and reads as, "He has a ceiling to be a very good #2 but the floor of a back end of the bullpen or an inning eating #4 SP."

 

Jorge Lopez, had a TOR type of pitching season for AA in 2015. It led to nothing in 2016. I don't like that Woodruff is 23 turning 24 with no AAA starts to his belt. So, you begin to stare at age 24 in AAA with maybe a Sept start or few bullpen outings. Age 25 we'll say half/half. Leaves last 6years of team control Age 26-31. There are time adjustments, He won't be TOR right from the get go. If he turns out to be a Kyle Hendriks type It'd happen at age 27, 2nd year of Pre-Arb. You got 3rd year Pre-Arb-28, 1st Arb-29, 2nd Arb-30, Last year before FA-31. We all know how everyone feels about 30. So, I worry about his age kinda knocking him down a peg. Is his age a reason for his Success at Brevard and Biloxi? Being on the older side to competition. And then the window is smaller for peak age performing at the ML level. Just throwing hard doesn't make him a TOR potential. Peralta has never put together anything better than a #3SP season to date, and he throws a hard Fastball. It'll help that's for sure on mistakes. But, what is BW's #2 and #3 Pitches? MLB has them as Slider and Changeup with just avg next to their future overings. And then lists his control below average. Now, certainly a 2.3/9BB rate exemplifies much higher control than below average. Just, for his age and the level he was pitching in. What's the FB to Breaking Balls ratio thrown?

Just becomes a question is he overmatching his opposition with just his FB? If not, what does he turn to for his secondary pitch?

It would be great to have Woodruff and Hader both ascend to TOR types that Milwaukee can start Opening Day 2018. With next year getting some Turns at the ML level, with More to come in 2019 behind them. You'd like to have a sorta "Veteran" to call upon vs. Rookie-Level at that stage.

[LouisEly]

Woodruff was 1.2 years younger than the average AA player this past season. Age is not a reason to knock him down. And who cares how many years you get from a guy and when he becomes a FA? A great pitcher is a great pitcher.

 

I think if you read your description, what you are looking for/expecting is a guy who is the #1 or #2 pitching prospect in baseball. How many pitching prospects fit that definition? Yes, there are guys who throw 98, but most of them walk a lot of guys - they don't have a 4.13 K/BB ratio. Lopez never had scouting reports that said he was throwing 98 late into games, and he had a lower K rate than Woodruff (9.8 vs 8.6) and worse K/BB ratio (4.13 vs 2.65) at Biloxi last year. His 2015 was not at the level that Woodruff's 2016 was. Peralta isn't comparable either - he had a lower K rate (8.1) and lower K/BB ratio (2.08) at AA.

 

Jose De Leon didn't spend much time in AA, but in that small-ish sample he had a better K rate (12.3) but a higher BB rate and lower K/BB ratio (3.62). He also gave up 1.3 HR/9 where Woodruff was 0.3. Woodruff was six months older this year at AA than De Leon was at AA last year, but that hasn't stopped De Leon from being a top prospect.

[MKE81]

Flanagan said in April that Woodruff is one of the players's to watch in the entire system as he was finally 100% healthy and that his previous numbers didn't do his talent justice. That this was the year they expected him to put everything together and pitch to his ability. He did that. 24 in AAA isn't a negative. And when you have a plus fastball consistently hitting 95-97 velocity (and continuing that late in games) with an average-to-above average curve, changeup and control you absolutely can step in and be a competitive SP at the MLB level right away. Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz I think are locks, barring injury, to be (very) productive SPs and definitely better than anyone we have in the rotation right now. They all have track records whereas Lopez didn't. He happened to have a dominant 2015 but there was nothing previous that showed this is what would translate to the field (mainly control related).

[adambr2]

Speaking of Lopez, anyone have any hope for him going forward?

 

I'm excited about the possibility of a rotation with Hader, Ortiz, and Woodruff by mid-2018. Bickford deserves to be in that discussion too, but I think he'll eventually wind up in the pen. Which is fine when you have top end closer stuff.

[CheezWizHed]

Certainly.

 

He had more than just the typical AAA struggles last year as he lost his control. I'm sure the thin air's effect on his CB didn't help anything. But I would expect him to be able to bounce back from last year. His AA gave us huge hope and last season brought those back down.

 

I'd guess he will be a #3-4 SP yet.

[clancyphile]

Speaking of Lopez, anyone have any hope for him going forward?

 

I'm excited about the possibility of a rotation with Hader, Ortiz, and Woodruff by mid-2018. Bickford deserves to be in that discussion too, but I think he'll eventually wind up in the pen. Which is fine when you have top end closer stuff.

 

Do not forget Brent Suter and Wei-Chung Wang - both lefties are in the rotation mix as well. Then there is Jon Perrin, who looks very good (the big worry aside from injury is acceptance to Harvard Law School).

 

Hader, Ortiz, Suter, Woodruff, Bickford, Perrin, and Wang are all, I think, potential rotation contributors. If Jorge Ortega and Jorge Lopez can bounce back, that would be even better.

 

Really, my hope for the offseason isn't for the Brewers to trade Braun. I'd rather see the Brewers move two or three of Guerra, Peralta, Nelson, Garza, and Anderson to open spots to see what some of these young pitchers can do. No six-man rotation stuff, or "spend a lot of time in the bullpen and maybe get a spot start" thing... just see if some of these young pitchers can do the rotation every five days.

[ZBTMP]

Speaking of Lopez, anyone have any hope for him going forward?

From BA's PCL chat:

Brent Ingram: Jorge Lopez had a rough season in the PCL but there is no denying his talent. Some observers see him as having a season that will be forgotten in the future. He has a fastball from 93-97 and that power hammer curveball, in addition to a hard changeup that is almost like a splitter. He is someone who just missed on the list, mainly because of his rocky season, not the ability of his arm or the ceiling. I still have hope that he has top-of-the-rotation ability but with those 2 big-time pitches, could be a weapon out of the bullpen at least.

 

2015 AA: 24.0 K% 9.1 BB%

2016 AA: 24.4 K% 8.3 BB%

 

Granted it was in the third of the innings but it hopefully its an indication that not much has regressed from a skill perspective. I wouldn't bother with AAA again, but if his K:BB are similar in mid-May at AA, Id be fine with giving him a MLB shot.

[MKE81]

Speaking of Lopez, anyone have any hope for him going forward?

From BA's PCL chat:

Brent Ingram: Jorge Lopez had a rough season in the PCL but there is no denying his talent. Some observers see him as having a season that will be forgotten in the future. He has a fastball from 93-97 and that power hammer curveball, in addition to a hard changeup that is almost like a splitter. He is someone who just missed on the list, mainly because of his rocky season, not the ability of his arm or the ceiling. I still have hope that he has top-of-the-rotation ability but with those 2 big-time pitches, could be a weapon out of the bullpen at least.

 

2015 AA: 24.0 K% 9.1 BB%

2016 AA: 24.4 K% 8.3 BB%

 

Granted it was in the third of the innings but it hopefully its an indication that not much has regressed from a skill perspective. I wouldn't bother with AAA again, but if his K:BB are similar in mid-May at AA, Id be fine with giving him a MLB shot.

I agree with Ingram and others who like Lopez. I do like him and I say the same about him as Phillips/Nottingham. Just because you have a poor season doesn't mean your talent is lost. Worst case Lopez is a very good pen arm - that's still good for the team. He should be given a shot to start in the rotation in spring (unless they feel they want him in the pen). But he's a MLB talent. Now, Jungmann is someone I'd prefer to move on from altogether.

[MKE81]

Speaking of Lopez, anyone have any hope for him going forward?

 

I'm excited about the possibility of a rotation with Hader, Ortiz, and Woodruff by mid-2018. Bickford deserves to be in that discussion too, but I think he'll eventually wind up in the pen. Which is fine when you have top end closer stuff.

 

Do not forget Brent Suter and Wei-Chung Wang - both lefties are in the rotation mix as well. Then there is Jon Perrin, who looks very good (the big worry aside from injury is acceptance to Harvard Law School).

 

Hader, Ortiz, Suter, Woodruff, Bickford, Perrin, and Wang are all, I think, potential rotation contributors. If Jorge Ortega and Jorge Lopez can bounce back, that would be even better.

 

Really, my hope for the offseason isn't for the Brewers to trade Braun. I'd rather see the Brewers move two or three of Guerra, Peralta, Nelson, Garza, and Anderson to open spots to see what some of these young pitchers can do. No six-man rotation stuff, or "spend a lot of time in the bullpen and maybe get a spot start" thing... just see if some of these young pitchers can do the rotation every five days.

Actually, we will forget Suter for the rotation because he has no chance of being in any MLB rotation. He pitches well in CO because he's a fastball/changeup pitcher and the changeup isn't affected in CO. But MLB hitters will destroy him while in the rotation. He can be effective out of the pen though, especially if you're following hard throwers. Wang can be an end of the rotation MLB starter but not sure he's going to have that chance with us. Perrin I like as well but I'm hesitant to put him in the mix given he's pitched very well at age level. I'd like to see what he does in AA against better competition. Harvard isn't going anywhere and the longer he plays pro ball the more money he has to pay for law school. Ortega I'm not sold on.

 

I do agree with you that I'd also rather see the Brewers trade some SPs. I'd like to see Garza gone for sure before the season and ideally Peralta. However, if Peralta has a first half like he finished this year he can be good trade bait at the deadline along with Guerra. By then there would be 3 SPs gone leaving us with Hader, Davies, Nelson, Anderson + 1 (Lopez?). It's easier to give these guys a first half shot to rebound than trade in the off-season for little value. But I could see a Peralta or Nelson traded for a 3b that's young and blocked needing a chance.

[Austin Tatious]

Great discussion. The World Series was very riveting. But, throughout, I couldn't help to think about my Brewers and what it would take to get in there.

 

Next year will be a huge year for so many of our prospects to see how they shake out. Between Woodruff, Hader, Bickford, and Ortiz, I like the potential there as starters. I am not here to knock anyone else, but I have my eye on those four in particular. I'd love to get another couple higher end guys. We have a top ten pick next year and I am going to guess that we have a good shot at another in 2018.

 

We also see how vital the bullpen is. I think we have some other pitching prospects who could project as nice bullpen arms. We will see who emerges here, but we have a number of arms, including Ponce and Devin Williams. Taylor Williams has major potential as a closer if his arm is back. Kirby is another in that camp. But, if you've got a bullpen headlined by Williams, with Ponce, Kirby, and Devin, there is some talent. I am very interested in seeing how all of these guys perform next year.

 

Besides the minor leaguers, we have some MLB pitchers who need to put their big boy pants on. I was spectacularly wrong about Jimmy Nelson. Hopefully he can get his mojo back and become a valid MLB starter.

[clancyphile]

Suter has done well enough as a starter that I am not ready to say his ceiling is only as a reliever. I view late-inning reliever (or even closer) as his floor, but I could see him as a very good starter as well (I don't think that performance starting at Colorado Springs can be entirely discounted when we consider his ceiling).

 

But the point I see is, there's a lot of talent. Even Wang helps, because better to pay a #4/#5 starter league minimum than to sign some free agent for five times that.

 

As for the starters, the three I'd really try to move over the offseason would be Guerra, Garza, and Anderson. With Guerra, I think it's a case of "selling high." Garza and Anderson might only provide lottery tickets, but I'll take those shots to see what Suter, Wang, and Cravy (among others) can do as starters.

 

If we're gonna tank, tank productively. Find out just how good Suter is. If he can be a starter, great. If not, closer or reliever is always a nice fallback option.

[MrTPlush]

Brent Suter isn't late inning material. Lots of hits, little strikeouts, and a soft tosser. Never going to be a closer or even a 7th/8th inning guy. Best case is a guy who has a nice season every once in awhile as a low leverage role. He will never dominate hitters to be trusted with higher leverage chances.

[ZBTMP]

Brent Suter isn't late inning material. Lots of hits, little strikeouts, and a soft tosser. Never going to be a closer or even a 7th/8th inning guy. Best case is a guy who has a nice season every once in awhile as a low leverage role. He will never dominate hitters to be trusted with higher leverage chances.

 

Typically you'd want someone whose stuff plays up in short stints. Even if Suter does blossom into the Mariner version of Jamie Moyer, their are probably better candidates to put in a 60 inning a year role.

 

Bottom line is late inning reliever is not a fallback option for Suter.

[clancyphile]

Brent Suter isn't late inning material. Lots of hits, little strikeouts, and a soft tosser. Never going to be a closer or even a 7th/8th inning guy. Best case is a guy who has a nice season every once in awhile as a low leverage role. He will never dominate hitters to be trusted with higher leverage chances.

 

How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser."

 

303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.

[MrTPlush]

Brent Suter isn't late inning material. Lots of hits, little strikeouts, and a soft tosser. Never going to be a closer or even a 7th/8th inning guy. Best case is a guy who has a nice season every once in awhile as a low leverage role. He will never dominate hitters to be trusted with higher leverage chances.

 

How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser."

 

303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.

 

 

I mean that was kinda 20-30 years ago...

 

You have proven my point that he isn't closer or late inning material. You provided one name that had his glory days decades ago. I mean feel free to start pulling together a good handful of current/recent guys and we may have something.

[reillymcshane]

Brent Suter isn't late inning material. Lots of hits, little strikeouts, and a soft tosser. Never going to be a closer or even a 7th/8th inning guy. Best case is a guy who has a nice season every once in awhile as a low leverage role. He will never dominate hitters to be trusted with higher leverage chances.

 

How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser."

 

303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.

There are always exceptions to the rule. But suggesting a guy is the exception to the rule (before he actually is the exception to the rule) is usually a really bad way determine a guy's future value.

[clancyphile]

How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser."

 

303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.

There are always exceptions to the rule. But suggesting a guy is the exception to the rule (before he actually is the exception to the rule) is usually a really bad way determine a guy's future value.

 

I see your point, but Suter's performance so far indicates to me that as a reliever, he could be a left-handed Doug Jones as a floor. I don't think the numbers lie.

[adambr2]

As an aside, I just looked up Doug Jones' stats and saw his first appearances in the bigs was on the Brewers WS team in '82. Crazy, I had no idea he was around that early.

[nate82]

How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser."

 

303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer.

There are always exceptions to the rule. But suggesting a guy is the exception to the rule (before he actually is the exception to the rule) is usually a really bad way determine a guy's future value.

 

I see your point, but Suter's performance so far indicates to me that as a reliever, he could be a left-handed Doug Jones as a floor. I don't think the numbers lie.

 

Suter is closer to Chris Narveson than he is to Doug Jones.

 

To clarify even more Narveson is Suters floor and his ceiling is that of Doug Davis. Not really all that impressive.