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BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Post-Season Edition

reillymcshane

By reillymcshane,
in Brewers Minor League Talk

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Eye Black GOAT

Eye Black

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Had a chance to go through the Baseball America Prospect Handbook a little more in-depth. The Handbook includes BA Grades which is a number grade that represents a player's potential ceiling. The BA grades use the 20-80 baseball scale, and the grade is coupled with a player's risk factor to reach the ceiling which ranges from Low risk to Extreme risk. A player's ranking within an organization isn't just about ceiling since sometimes players with 50 ceilings (or in some cases 45 ceilings) often have lower risk factors of reaching their given ceiling and thus are ranked more highly. One example of this in terms of the Brewers is Mauricio Dubon who has a BA grade of 50, but with only Medium risk. The Brewers have nine players with BA grades of 55 who rank below Dubon because their risk against reaching their ceiling is either High or Extreme.

 

I went through each teams top 30 prospects focusing merely on BA Grades, and ignoring the risk factors. Of the 900 prospects ranked in the Handbook, 227 of them received a BA Grade of 55 or higher (that is 10 more than last year). A BA Grade of 55 marks the divide between players that Baseball America considers having the ceiling to become first division regulars or mid-rotation starters. Of these 227 players here is the breakdown of BA Grades: 143 prospects were ranked 55's; 61 were 60's; 21 were 65's; 2 were 70's. The Brewers and Braves had the most prospects with 55 or higher grades, with each at 19 players qualifying. The Braves however have a greater number of players with higher ceilings, they had 4 prospects with 65's and another 5 with 60's (the other 10 were 55's). The Brewers had 3 players with 60's (not necessarily the players you might be thinking) and the other 16 were 55's.

 

I did put together this Bar Graph illustration of this data for all teams, from the Brewers and Braves at 19 apiece all the way down to the Dbacks (2), Angels (2), and Tigers (1)...

 

LINK: Baseball America 2017 Prospects with BA Grades 55+ By Organization

 

I was going to paste that image here but was having trouble resizing it to display smaller, so please check out the link for now. The color on the bar graph darkens slightly as the grade numbers rise (i.e. 55 is the lightest to 70 which is darkest).

 

I should note that I used the scouting reports within each players write-up for these grades and not the organizational overview prospect list at the front of the team sections. I note this because it does sometimes vary. Josh Pennington for instance is listed in his scouting report as a 55 BA Grade with Extreme risk, but on the front Brewers Organizational Overview page Pennington is listed as a 50 / High risk. So occasionally some discrepancy exists, but again I always used what is listed within the scouting capsule. Also, I accouted for the two players with 55 or greater BA Grades that have been traded since the Handbook went to print, Luiz Gohara (now with the Braves) and Jose De Leon (Rays).

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Noche College Ball

Noche

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Sickels seems like the low man on us this year which is fine because I don't really consider him a primary source in this matter. Longenhagen (Fangraphs) and the BP group still do the best job with these lists from the well-known sites. I think the Brewerfan compilation is as good as any when purely trying to rank the players.

 

Another perspective I think everyone should check out is from Rotowire's lead prospect writer, James Anderson. Similar to Longenhagen, James doesn't rigidly hold himself to a top 10 or top 30 list by team. If you are a 'guy you need to know' from a fantasy perspective, he writes about you. He recently published his NL Central piece and 96 prospects were listed.

 

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/showArticle.htm?id=31690

 

Brewers 27

Cubs 20

Cardinals 19

Pirates 15

Reds 15

 

Brewers Top 10

1. Brinson

2. Ray

3. Diaz I.

4. Hader

5. Clark

6. Erceg

7. Ortiz L.

8. Diplan M.

9. Lara

10. Woodruff

 

He has Dubon all the way at 17 which jumped off the page most to me.

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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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Baseball America put out a podcast today about the Brewers org.

 

It's a great listen, except for the part in the intro where they literally referred to Haudricourt as "Mr. Baseball" in Milwaukee. :rolleyes

 

I'm pretty sure that is punishable by life imprisonment.

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And That Nashville Sounds

And That

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After adding in a few more prospect rankings, the Brewers still have the same 8 guys averaging a 55 or 60 OFP, though Ray and Hader have both been bumped up from 55 to 60, to give Brinson some company. Ortiz, Diaz, Erceg, Clark, and Bickford are all at 55.

 

There were 13 prospects with a 50 OFP at last check, but that number has ballooned to 18: Phillips, Woodruff, Diplan, Dubon, Ponce, Devin Williams, Burnes, Lopez, Pennington, Harrison, Cordell, Webb, Lara, Orimoloye, Medeiros, Kirby, Peralta, Nottingham.

 

Notables averaging 45 OFP: Barnes, Taylor Williams, Mario Feliciano, McClanahan, Perrin, Taylor, Wang, Gatewood, Yamamoto, Derby, Roache, Coulter, Magnifico, Stokes, Houser, Mallen, Reed, Gabriel Garcia. There are others, but most of the other only have one or two OFP grades, so it's not really an average of anything at this point.

@YouKnowAndThat | Almost, Tim Dell
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Eye Black GOAT

Eye Black

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Baseball America released their top 100 prospects list on MLB Network this evening. Brewers prospects appearing on the list included...

 

#93: Isan Diaz

#82: Brandon Woodruff

#79: Luis Ortiz

#42: Corey Ray

#33: Josh Hader

#27: Lewis Brinson

 

Also of note, former Brewers prospect LHP Anthony Banda (Dbacks) was listed at #88 and temporary Brewers trade target C Francisco Mejia (Indians) was #28.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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Baseball America released their top 100 prospects list on MLB Network this evening. Brewers prospects appearing on the list included...

 

#93: Isan Diaz

#82: Brandon Woodruff

#79: Luis Ortiz

#42: Corey Ray

#33: Josh Hader

#27: Lewis Brinson

 

Also of note, former Brewers prospect LHP Anthony Banda (Dbacks) was listed at #88 and temporary Brewers trade target C Francisco Mejia (Indians) was #28.

 

Good to see Woodruff getting some recognition. When is the last time the Brewers had 3 pitchers in the overall top 100? Would probably be 4 if Bickford didn't fail a drug test.

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brewcrewdue80 ACL Brewers

brewcrewdue80

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A Tale of Two Toolsy Prospects: Brinson & Harrison

By Jake Covey, Disciples of Uecker

 

One full year of health for Harrison Please! Well really 12 would be nice. :laughing.

Truthfully the stats hes put up under his injuries to overcome is encouraging. Will his speed return and SBs return? Really hope he proceeds to make the Majors because of his Football potential he passed on. Some year can Milw picks produce better than you expect?

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Mass Haas GOAT

Mass Haas

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Ten Brewers in John Sickels' Top 200:

 

33) Lewis Brinson, OF, Brewers, Grade B+

37) Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers, Grade B+

48) Corey Ray, OF, Brewers, Grade B+

90) Isan Diaz, INF, Brewers, Grade B/B+

118) Mauricio Dubon, SS, Brewers, Grade B

120) Luis Ortiz, RHP, Brewers, Grade B

121) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers, Grade B

124) Phil Bickford, RHP, Brewers, Grade B

181) Marcos Diplan, RHP, Brewers, Grade B/B-

200) Lucas Erceg, 3B, Brewers, Grade B-

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MadThinker88 Draft Eligible

MadThinker88

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Ten Brewers in John Sickels' Top 200:

 

33) Lewis Brinson, OF, Brewers, Grade B+

37) Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers, Grade B+

48) Corey Ray, OF, Brewers, Grade B+

90) Isan Diaz, INF, Brewers, Grade B/B+

118) Mauricio Dubon, SS, Brewers, Grade B

120) Luis Ortiz, RHP, Brewers, Grade B

121) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers, Grade B

124) Phil Bickford, RHP, Brewers, Grade B

181) Marcos Diplan, RHP, Brewers, Grade B/B-

200) Lucas Erceg, 3B, Brewers, Grade B-

 

For Comparison: the listing for Cleveland by Sickels.. In bold are the 3 main prospects that were part of the voided Lucroy deal...

19. Mejia, C - B+/A-

32. Zimmer, OF - B+

43. McKenzie, RHP - B+

65. Bradley, 1B - B+

76. Aiken, LHP - B/B+

129. Kaminsky, LHP - B

131. Allen, OF - B

146. Hillman, LHP - B/B-

184. Chang, SS - B-

198. Jones, 3B - B-

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