2016-2017 Green Bay Packers Thread

[monkeyman343434]

My frustration with yesterday was, they couldn’t cover, but yet didn’t seem like they were bringing any blitzes to try and force Ryan to get the ball out of his hand quickly. If they knew the secondary couldn’t cover well/for long, why wouldn’t they try and send 6-7 guys every play to try and force them to make a mistake? This could be completely stupid, but that’s just how I felt watching the game.

 

I read a short Pro Football Focus article today about the secondary (https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-packers-need-to-solve-their-secondary-issues-this-offseason/) , which showed how well Randall, Rollins, and Gunter all played in 2015, then how terrible all three were in 2016, and they’re all still younger than 24. My gut feeling tells me this is because they all had to play up because of Shields being out practically the whole season. I feel like if they spend some cash in FA and grab A.J. Bouye (can dream, right?), Stephon Gilmore, or Trumaine Johnson, they would have themselves a true CB1 and would allow the young trio to all slot in at CB2 – CB4 which would be more fitting for them, and allow them to keep growing.

 

I also see that they could save $11.1M in cap space if they cut Clay, and $9M if they cut Shields. I will admit I have barely followed cap hits and what hits most guys count against the cap, just see the original FA deals that run across the headlines and that’s about it.

Going further into free agency, cap space, and the draft, I feel like it just brings up more and more questions. Do they resign any of T.J. Lang, Micah Hyde, Jared Cook, Julius Peppers, Eddie Lacy, Nick Perry, Datone Jones, Joe Thomas, or Christine Michael? Would Lang come back at roughly his $5.2 average salary from his previous deal? How much would it take to bring back Cook? How much would Hyde cost? If they go out and spend money on a CB1, do they need Hyde?

 

Like many have said before, I think they need to first figure out which direction they want to take the defense (Capers, 3-4, Nickel) and who the GM is going to be, and work together to match personnel to the defensive scheme, this seems so stupid to say, but it really feels like TT never worked together with Capers to get him players he wants for his system.

 

With the way NFL offenses have been going, it seems like they should have a Nickel base defense, but ability to go bigger when the situation presents itself. I’m going to ask this, and admit I have no idea on an answer, but would Daniels, Clark, and Guion be able to start next to each other on a Nickel defense? If they went the route of having 4 down linemen, if they would resign Perry, would he be able to start on the line as a DE with them?

 

The direction I would like to see them make would be to cut Shields, cut Clay, sign one of those CBs I mentioned earlier, resign Hyde, Cook, and Lang. Decide what direction they’re going with the defense and sign a FA that fits on the DE or OLB.

The draft seems to be deep in CB and RB help, which maybe would allow them to let Hyde and Lacy go, and draft help there.

 

There’s a lot of very intriguing names for RB/CB/Edge help that could be available in the first two rounds. Christian McCaffrey, D’onta Foreman would be great RB picks (guessing they have no shot at Cook or Fournette). Teez Tabor, Adoree Jackson, Marshon Lattimore, Sidney Jones, Tre’Davious White, Desmond King, Gareon Conley – most of these guys should be available at the end of round one, and maybe someone at the end of round two. Also plenty of DE/OLB like Tim Williams and Carl Lawson should be available at the end of round one.

Sorry for the long post, just trying to look at the positives after yesterday’s game, and the nice 8 game win streak before that. Trying to be optimistic for the next five years or so that Rodgers will still be here.

[GAME05]

He'll be pricey but I expect Matthews back just because he's still better than what we'd otherwise have there. GB also has a lot of cap space moving over from this season and will more with Shields and Peppers leaving (or at least Peppers takes a substantial pay cut).

 

I could see Eddy Lacy back for similar reasons. He was putting up a good average in what few games he played this year, and he'd be a good candidate to want a prove-it contract before hitting FA again after next season. Let Montgomery be his primary backup, which would make for an interesting duo.

 

It'll never happen, but with a guy as skilled as Adams as a #3 WR, I wonder what sort of players could be gotten from trading Adams or Cobb to bolster the defense.

 

It's sad-funny that two years ago TT drafts two straight CBs as a bit of a surprise and says it's to bolster the defense against the emerging QBs in the NFC North and now its our biggest weakness.

[jerichoholicninja]

Defense is obvious but Rodgers hasn't had a running game his whole career aside from a half season when Starks was playing out of his mind. Last offseason there were plenty of running backs available but they were expecting a full season out of Lacey which was a huge mistake on their part. Matt Forte would have looked great in the backfield and wouldn't have worn down like he did with the Jets since he would have been splitting time with Lacey/Starks/Montgomery.

[pacopete4]

Defense is obvious but Rodgers hasn't had a running game his whole career aside from a half season when Starks was playing out of his mind. Last offseason there were plenty of running backs available but they were expecting a full season out of Lacey which was a huge mistake on their part. Matt Forte would have looked great in the backfield and wouldn't have worn down like he did with the Jets since he would have been splitting time with Lacey/Starks/Montgomery.

 

 

You have to make an attempt at running the ball. The Packers don't. They say they want to but rarely stick to it.

[MrTPlush]

Defense is obvious but Rodgers hasn't had a running game his whole career aside from a half season when Starks was playing out of his mind. Last offseason there were plenty of running backs available but they were expecting a full season out of Lacey which was a huge mistake on their part. Matt Forte would have looked great in the backfield and wouldn't have worn down like he did with the Jets since he would have been splitting time with Lacey/Starks/Montgomery.

 

They had two years of Lacy where he was exactly what they needed.

[DHonks]

Another thought. When was this defense the best the last couple years? When Clay played MLB. I would entertain the idea of going back to 4-3 full time. Put Clay in the middle. (And yes, his deal needs to be re-structured.) Then go get a pass rusher in FA to go along with Perry. I think that would be an improvement in the front 7.

 

 

I've been alluding to this with my many 3-4/nickel comments. Clay is ineffective in the DE role he's been playing out of the nickel. He either needs to move inside, or we need to try playing a 3-4.

 

But really, 4-3, 3-4...it doesn't matter. We played Nickel or Dime seemingly every down all season.

 

And free agency can't solve our problems. Good players in the NFL don't reach free agency. Plus it's hard to evaluate players, as many are products of their systems. We can add a few solid backups or fringe starters, but it's rare to find impactful players given the CBA

[pacopete4]

Another thought. When was this defense the best the last couple years? When Clay played MLB. I would entertain the idea of going back to 4-3 full time. Put Clay in the middle. (And yes, his deal needs to be re-structured.) Then go get a pass rusher in FA to go along with Perry. I think that would be an improvement in the front 7.

 

 

I've been alluding to this with my many 3-4/nickel comments. Clay is ineffective in the DE role he's been playing out of the nickel. He either needs to move inside, or we need to try playing a 3-4.

 

But really, 4-3, 3-4...it doesn't matter. We played Nickel or Dime seemingly every down all season.

 

And free agency can't solve our problems. Good players in the NFL don't reach free agency. Plus it's hard to evaluate players, as many are products of their systems. We can add a few solid backups or fringe starters, but it's rare to find impactful players given the CBA

 

 

Name the top 5 free agent CB's. All five are better than what we have.

[jerichoholicninja]

Defense is obvious but Rodgers hasn't had a running game his whole career aside from a half season when Starks was playing out of his mind. Last offseason there were plenty of running backs available but they were expecting a full season out of Lacey which was a huge mistake on their part. Matt Forte would have looked great in the backfield and wouldn't have worn down like he did with the Jets since he would have been splitting time with Lacey/Starks/Montgomery.

 

 

You have to make an attempt at running the ball. The Packers don't. They say they want to but rarely stick to it.

 

Do they not run because they don't want to or because they can't? Defenses play to stop the passing game, there has to be running room somewhere. Montgomery got a couple good runs in every now and then but that was it. Forte can run it up the gut and catch the ball out of the backfield. He was the perfect back for this team. Personally I think that most of it falls on the O-line which is very overrated because Rodgers is so good and just running around and making something out of nothing.

[superfly]

RE Fat Eddie, I think it's time to move on from this "beast." It's time to move on from Starks too. If we're going to be a pass heavy offense then we need to acquire the personnel to maximize it. A Darren Sproles, Jamaal Charles, CJ Prosise type of player, not a 250 lb Jerome Bettis who can't stay on the field and a 30 year old injury prone backup who's mediocre at pass catching.

[homer]

Defense is obvious but Rodgers hasn't had a running game his whole career aside from a half season when Starks was playing out of his mind. Last offseason there were plenty of running backs available but they were expecting a full season out of Lacey which was a huge mistake on their part. Matt Forte would have looked great in the backfield and wouldn't have worn down like he did with the Jets since he would have been splitting time with Lacey/Starks/Montgomery.

 

 

You have to make an attempt at running the ball. The Packers don't. They say they want to but rarely stick to it.

 

Do they not run because they don't want to or because they can't? Defenses play to stop the passing game, there has to be running room somewhere. Montgomery got a couple good runs in every now and then but that was it. Forte can run it up the gut and catch the ball out of the backfield. He was the perfect back for this team. Personally I think that most of it falls on the O-line which is very overrated because Rodgers is so good and just running around and making something out of nothing.

 

Packers pass blocking was rated tops in the league by Pro Football Focus. Had little to do with Rodgers. Reason he can run around is because of that line.

[pacopete4]

 

Do they not run because they don't want to or because they can't? Defenses play to stop the passing game, there has to be running room somewhere. Montgomery got a couple good runs in every now and then but that was it.

 

 

Montgomery avg 5.9 per carry

Lacy avg 5.1 per carry

Ripkowski 4.4 per carry

 

And I might be wrong but Montgomery lead the league in yards after contact average.

 

To me it's more of a won't do that a can't do. Maybe some of that is Rodgers but McCarthy needs to stick to the run a bit longer in games.

[brewcrewdue80]

Part of the run game issues, is Mccarthy making run calls in obvious situations which then get stuffed and he abandons for another series, or predictable time to run next. 3rd and 1, 3rd and 2.

For as good as their hurryup offense can be, the number of times they huddle and break from it with under 10secs on play clock is nerveracking. I feel there should be more audibles than you see when run plays are called. But its like ther dont have an audible if it is a run play.

 

One of their weakest parts to the run game has been the terrible run blocking via the TE position. Some kind of replacement for Richard Rodgers is necessary. Or they flat out need to go 6man OL and try beating them with the 2wrs only when mixing a playaction.

[GAME05]

I keep remembering when TT drafted Rollins and Randall despite calls to shore up MLB and DE, because he said that with teams being pass-heavy, he wanted to build up the secondary to be very strong against it. And two years later it's still the weakest area on the team.

[pacopete4]

I keep remembering when TT drafted Rollins and Randall despite calls to shore up MLB and DE, because he said that with teams being pass-heavy, he wanted to build up the secondary to be very strong against it. And two years later it's still the weakest area on the team.

 

No matter what we did on defense, if we ONLY use the draft, there is a good chance that there would be holes. You HAVE to use all the resources out there to give this team the best chance to win. We've been lucky that McCarthy, Capers, Rodgers are all amazing at what they do, or this team would truly stink.

[brwrsfan]

A prime example of this would be someone like Jared Cook.

 

Offense was badly in need of a tight end that can work the field. Nobody really fell to them in the draft....so we sign a cheap, veteran FA. Who immediately steps in (despite injuries) and fills a huge void in the offense.

 

Sure, there won't always be all-pro caliber players in FA, but there are quality guys that can start. And just about anyone in the secondary would seemingly be better than they have right now. Look at the NYG for example, terrible defense last year, went out and got 4-5 defensive starters to completely revamp the defense and they were much, much better this year.

 

Draft and develop really only works if you nail EVERY draft, which Ted clearly hasn't done. When that doesn't work, it leaves massive holes which for the most part, he has failed to fill in FA, and the results on the field have shown that. He's also decided not to pay for two DB's that we did draft and develop - House and Hayward. He's just so stubborn on the price he wants to pay, and it's let guys get away that certainly could have fit in here. It's great always having a ton of cap space, but it means nothing if you never actually go out and use it.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

Do they not run because they don't want to or because they can't? Defenses play to stop the passing game, there has to be running room somewhere. Montgomery got a couple good runs in every now and then but that was it.

 

 

Montgomery avg 5.9 per carry

Lacy avg 5.1 per carry

Ripkowski 4.4 per carry

 

And I might be wrong but Montgomery lead the league in yards after contact average.

 

To me it's more of a won't do that a can't do. Maybe some of that is Rodgers but McCarthy needs to stick to the run a bit longer in games.

 

Exactly!! Montgomery gets a bad rap since he's a converted WR. But if you actually watch his runs, he is already a very good RB. Has some quick change of pace and more power than you would think.

 

His first carry was 3 or 4 yards. Then that was it. No more runs at all for the next several possessions- other than New Kuhn's fumble. That really should have been the game plan, run it more to shorten the game. In the end, yea it doesn't matter. They were never going to outscore Atlanta on this day.

[LouisEly]

What bothers me is how it has been a recurring theme that they carry over a significant amount of cap space from year to year. This year it was $8M.

 

I know that the trade deadline is unnecessarily early in the NFL, but injuries hit the secondary early enough that they could have pulled off a trade for a pretty darned good CB with that cap space. It's harder to pick up offensive players because of the complexity of the offense and how Rodgers calls audibles, but playing corner isn't that different from team to team. Man-to-man, zone, cover 2, cover 3... that's about it.

 

The more scouting reports I read the more it sounds like Sidney Jones will be gone by their pick, but Gaeron Conley and Cordrea Tankersley should be there, Adoree Jackson might be there, and Howard Wilson could slip to their 2nd round pick. Jourdan Lewis I think will come up a bit shorter than his listed 5'11"... Lewis might not measure to 5'10".

[DHonks]

Montgomery hasn't been a good receiver for the Packers, so I'm hoping he sticks at running back. Very talented and hard to bring down

[jjgott]

Montgomery hasn't been a good receiver for the Packers, so I'm hoping he sticks at running back. Very talented and hard to bring down

 

Yep, could be a Brian Westbrook-type and used more as a receiving RB given his work as a WR. Still think we need a more traditional RB to compliment him though.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Montgomery hasn't been a good receiver for the Packers, so I'm hoping he sticks at running back. Very talented and hard to bring down

 

Yep, could be a Brian Westbrook-type and used more as a receiving RB given his work as a WR. Still think we need a more traditional RB to compliment him though.

 

The 2017 draft, particularly with the declared underclassmen, is supposed to be pretty deep this year for RB. Starks will be cut, and as much as I wanted to see Christine Michael succeed, it's clear his mental ability/decision making is well behind his athletic ability and why he's been cut so often. That basically puts you with just Montgomery under contract for 2017. Given that the running back position is the one where it's almost universally agreed that you should avoid in free agency, I could see them bringing back Lacy on a one year deal and draft at least one RB. Heck, the Seahawks knew they had nobody behind Rawls going into this season and drafted 3 RB's. As important as it is to shore up the defense, we have to be more balanced on offense going forward.

[Patrick425]

Bob McGinn's (Journal/Sentinel) 2016 ratings of the Packers was in the paper today. Overall he gave the team a 3.11 out of 5. A 3 rates as "so-so" on his scale. So, a team that makes it to the NFC championship is so-so? If they won the Super Bowl would that have bumped them "all the way up" to a 4 or "good"? Seems like some pretty tough grading.

 

edit: He also gave Rodgers a rating of 3.45. So, a MVP candidate who pretty much carried the team on his back for an 8 game stretch is somewhere between so-so and good.

[FVBrewerFan]

Given that the running back position is the one where it's almost universally agreed that you should avoid in free agency, I could see them bringing back Lacy on a one year deal and draft at least one RB.

 

Why is it a given? I think FA is a great place to find a RB. They are generally very cheap, unless a stud somehow ends up on the market. But yea, I would still draft one. And they will bring in a couple Undrafted FA. Also, yea I expect them to bring Lacy back for a cheap contract.

[danzig6767]

A prime example of this would be someone like Jared Cook.

 

Offense was badly in need of a tight end that can work the field. Nobody really fell to them in the draft....so we sign a cheap, veteran FA. Who immediately steps in (despite injuries) and fills a huge void in the offense.

 

Sure, there won't always be all-pro caliber players in FA, but there are quality guys that can start. And just about anyone in the secondary would seemingly be better than they have right now. Look at the NYG for example, terrible defense last year, went out and got 4-5 defensive starters to completely revamp the defense and they were much, much better this year.

 

Draft and develop really only works if you nail EVERY draft, which Ted clearly hasn't done. When that doesn't work, it leaves massive holes which for the most part, he has failed to fill in FA, and the results on the field have shown that. He's also decided not to pay for two DB's that we did draft and develop - House and Hayward. He's just so stubborn on the price he wants to pay, and it's let guys get away that certainly could have fit in here. It's great always having a ton of cap space, but it means nothing if you never actually go out and use it.

The Patriots have been great at filling holes on their roster from year to year via some combination of trades, big time free agents, and/or smaller priced free agents who fit their system. Mix in the draft and they advance far into the playoffs consistently.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Given that the running back position is the one where it's almost universally agreed that you should avoid in free agency, I could see them bringing back Lacy on a one year deal and draft at least one RB.

 

Why is it a given? I think FA is a great place to find a RB. They are generally very cheap, unless a stud somehow ends up on the market. But yea, I would still draft one. And they will bring in a couple Undrafted FA. Also, yea I expect them to bring Lacy back for a cheap contract.

 

In general, if a player is worth locking into an extension then the team that drafted him would already do it. This rule seems to apply to RB's more than any other position. The only exception in recent memory is DeMarco Murray, who the Cowboys just could not afford against their cap. Murray's atrocious season in Philly sort of proved that rule, although he has bounced back in a big way in Tennessee.

 

Essentially, teams are faced with a decision like: Are we better off signing a retread with past success but a lot of miles like a 26 year old Alfred Morris, or spending a mid-round pick on a guy like Jordan Howard or Paul Perkins and hope to catch lightening in a bottle? Depending on how the draft plays out, I'd like to see them take at least 1 RB, if not 2 in the mid rounds that fit their scheme. I think they had the perfect plan in place when they drafted Lacy in the 2nd round, and Jonathan Franklin in the 4th the same year. They were the perfect compliment for each other, but Franklin's neck injury forced too much onto Lacy's plate (oh that pun was intended).

[FVBrewerFan]

Patriots basically take the Money Ball approach. Doesn't matter where a player comes from or how they're acquired. Is he a good fit, and does the price tag fit for what you get.

 

I agree with the Packers draft and develop philosophy, but then you darn well better be able to, you know, draft and develop. They haven't been able to do that for years now on the defensive side of the ball.