10 Reasons to hope Cubs can be overcome within 6 years

[JohnBriggs12]

10. Jason Heyward is still owed over $162 million

 

9. They can't pay them all. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Russell and Schwarber are all eligible for FA in 2022.

 

8. Chapman is a rental

 

7. Arrieta and Lackey are both FA in 2018

 

6. They won't be drafting in the top 20 anytime soon

 

5. Jon Lester will be soaking up significant payroll in his age 34 through 36 seasons

 

4. Arcia will prove to be a superior SS to Russell

 

3. Maddon is 62 going on 63 and will likely prefer sipping wine in the Napa Valley in a few years over managing a big league club

 

2. They're the Cubs

 

1. Heyward is still owed over $162 million (yes a repeat for emphasis)

[MrTPlush]

One can overcome the Cubs because they will have down years and won't have the uber cheap talented team they have now forever. Will they be perennial winners for a long time? Very likely. However their ability to have a 97+ win team every year will not be sustainable and eventually they will have 86-94 win teams that can be overtaken in the standings.

[homer]

Pitching will be key for them going forward. I'd be willing to bet they trade off Schwarber or Baez for some young arm(s).

[And That]

The Cubs' farm system has gone from one of the best to one of the worst in baseball. That's in large part because they have a great big league team now, but they do not have a good talent pipeline in place at the moment.

 

Edit: I'm going to walk that back a little bit. Certainly lower half, but they have decent depth. Certainly not Angels bad.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's all about their pitching. I don't know their minor league system but all their starters now are either in or leaving their prime. Meaning it's only going to get worse the next few years unless they trade some of that great hitting they have. The Heyward and Lester contracts aren't necessarily going to handcuff them financially but they will make them have to decide whether to resign Rizzo/Bryant/Baez/etc. or spend it on free agent pitching. In a year or two they could look an awful lot like the late 2000's/early 2010's with great hitting but crap pitching.

[pacopete4]

It's all about their pitching. I don't know their minor league system but all their starters now are either in or leaving their prime. Meaning it's only going to get worse the next few years unless they trade some of that great hitting they have. The Heyward and Lester contracts aren't necessarily going to handcuff them financially but they will make them have to decide whether to resign Rizzo/Bryant/Baez/etc. or spend it on free agent pitching. In a year or two they could look an awful lot like the late 2000's/early 2010's with great hitting but crap pitching.

 

 

This is refreshing to read because all I ever seem to hear is how the Cubs are set up to dominate for decades with no end in sight. So happy to see their playoff struggles. It's truly Christmas coming early. Hope it continues.

[MadThinker88]

4. Arcia will prove to be a superior SS to Russell )

 

This one is debatable. Arcia might get there but I wouldn't bet the rent on it. I see Arcia being a very solid shortstop with a long productive career.

 

I suspect too many people look at Arcia's last prospect ranking & assume he is a top player at position and across baseball. They forget, he moved up to that ranking after a number of others (Russell included) graduated into the majors.

[MrTPlush]

4. Arcia will prove to be a superior SS to Russell )

 

This one is debatable. Arcia might get there but I wouldn't bet the rent on it.

 

If I had the option of Arcia or Russell I would be skipping all the way to the bank with Russell.

[monty57]

The Cubs are good, but they're human and can be beaten. The Brewers just need to focus on themselves. They have done a wonderful job of stocking the system in the short time they've been in "rebuild" mode, and the time will come for them to start putting an emphasis on being competitive at the big league level. I think/hope that time is not too far away.

 

The Cubs have set themselves up to be good for a while, and hopefully the Brewers are in the process of doing the same. It will be fun when the Brewers are ready to knock them off their perch.

[LouisEly]

Along the lines of #5, four of their five starters are over the age of 30. We can hope for Lohsian and Suppanian like demises as they age.

[clancyphile]

One last reason:

For the Cubs, losing is a tradition.

[Ennder]

Baseball has the most parity of any of the major sports is the big reason. People seem to believe this isn't true just because it has no salary cap but it has been proven time and time again.

[logan82]

Baseball has the most parity of any of the major sports is the big reason. People seem to believe this isn't true just because it has no salary cap but it has been proven time and time again.

If it was football the records would range from 10 - 6 and 6 - 10. In a normal year it would range from 9 - 7 to 7 - 9.

[Oxy]

Baseball has the most parity of any of the major sports is the big reason. People seem to believe this isn't true just because it has no salary cap but it has been proven time and time again.

If it was football the records would range from 10 - 6 and 6 - 10. In a normal year it would range from 9 - 7 to 7 - 9.

 

 

Which is why baseball is the greatest live sporting event. Even if you are a fan of the worst team in the league, you can go to some random Tuesday night game against the best team in the league and have a decent chance of seeing a victory.

[AdvantageSchneider]

1) They had the best record in baseball and they did it with only 2 weeks of Schwarber.

2) Heyward's only 27 and even in his down year had a 1.5 WAR. He'll bounce back, unless he's got some debilitaing injury he hasn't told anyone about.

3) They have Jorge Soler (age 24) to trade for more pitching.

 

This thread reminds me of(and my apologies for going political) Gary Johnson saying we don't need to worry about global warming because in the long run we're all dead anyway. 6 years is a long dang time, and they have a smart GM. I don't think you can say with any more certainty that the cubs window will be closed/closing in 6 years than you can say that the Brewers window will be open in 3-6 years.

[TURBO]

One last reason:

For the Cubs, losing is a tradition.

 

ummm, how is that different than the Brewers?

 

[logan82]

One last reason:

For the Cubs, losing is a tradition.

 

ummm, how is that different than the Brewers?

 

We are not lovable losers.

[502 to Right]

None of the 10 issues listed will hinder the Cubs from winning. Their management has the skill and resources to work around all of them.

 

The good thing is that the Brewers don't need to overtake the Cubs during the regular season. There will still be plenty of opportunities to make the playoffs via the wild card. Once in, anything can happen. It worked well for the Red Sox vs. the Yankees during Theo's time in Boston.

 

The Brewers just need to focus on their business and not worry about the Cubs.

 

 

Edit - I checked the Rex Sox performance during Theo's time in Boston. They won the division only 1 time out of 9 seasons. Clearly you can build a winning team without winning divisions.

[MadThinker88]

None of the 10 issues listed will hinder the Cubs from winning. Their management has the skill and resources to work around all of them.

 

The good thing is that the Brewers don't need to overtake the Cubs during the regular season. There will still be plenty of opportunities to make the playoffs via the wild card. Once in, anything can happen. It worked well for the Red Sox vs. the Yankees during Theo's time in Boston.

 

The Brewers just need to focus on their business and not worry about the Cubs.

 

With the Cubs being in the same division, it means 19 regular season games. You should worry/ plan on a way of dealing with them. Otherwise very poor head to head results might prevent the Brewers from being in a race. See 2016 Tribe vs Tigers. It can be argued the lopsidedness of that outcome won the Tribe the AL Central and seriously impaired the Tigers chances at the Wild Card. I believe Tribe went 14-4 vs Tigers.

[joepepsi]

One last reason:

For the Cubs, losing is a tradition.

 

ummm, how is that different than the Brewers?

 

We are not lovable losers.

Are the Cubs really losers, let alone lovable? They have made it to the playoffs 5 of the last 14 seasons. They have had 7 winning seasons in that time.

The Indians have been to the playoffs 3 times, with 5 winning seasons in that span. Granted neither time has been a dynasty in the 2000's, but most Brewer fans would take the Cubs' results since 2003.

 

The Cubs have always had the resources to win but have suffered through periods of bad management. Their young talented position players are no better than the Brewers' talent from 5-10 years ago. The difference is the Cubs will always have the money to throw at proven veteran pitchers. And they will be able to keep and sign any player they desire. Their payroll this season is estimated at $189 million (estimated at B-ref.com; Cots puts the opening day salary at $171,611,834). The Brewers will never have a payroll that high using 2016 dollars.

 

The Cubs are the best team in NL and I respect the talent on this team and the way it was built. But I reject this marketing image that they are this lovable everyman team that we should all cheer. They aren't the Kansas City Royals or the Cleveland Indians, two teams that, like the Brewers, are truly underdogs when it comes to market size and resources. They're just another big market team that can buy their way to the playoffs whenever ownership gets the urge.

[502 to Right]

None of the 10 issues listed will hinder the Cubs from winning. Their management has the skill and resources to work around all of them.

 

The good thing is that the Brewers don't need to overtake the Cubs during the regular season. There will still be plenty of opportunities to make the playoffs via the wild card. Once in, anything can happen. It worked well for the Red Sox vs. the Yankees during Theo's time in Boston.

 

The Brewers just need to focus on their business and not worry about the Cubs.

 

With the Cubs being in the same division, it means 19 regular season games. You should worry/ plan on a way of dealing with them. Otherwise very poor head to head results might prevent the Brewers from being in a race. See 2016 Tribe vs Tigers. It can be argued the lopsidedness of that outcome won the Tribe the AL Central and seriously impaired the Tigers chances at the Wild Card. I believe Tribe went 14-4 vs Tigers.

 

The Brewers need to focus on building a winning team, regardless of opponent. Period.

[trwi7]

It's not like baseball is like football either where a certain scheme is going to give certain teams difficulties. I mean, you could be 5-14 against a division opponent one year and 13-6 against them the next year.

[sveumrules]

I checked the Rex Sox performance during Theo's time in Boston. They won the division only 1 time out of 9 seasons. Clearly you can build a winning team without winning divisions.

 

Something to keep in mind is it was much easier to win the World Series as a Wild Card under the old system when you were guaranteed at least 3 games. From 1995-2011 there were five Wild Card World Series Champions. From 2012 when they switched to the single elimination game until now there has been only one Wild Card World Series Champion.