Braun's place on the Power 50?

[Playing Catch]

Where will Toby put Braun, Inman, etc. on the next Power 50?

 

Does Toby wait until they're signed to put them on?

 

How many of the '05 picks will make the Power 50?

 

I'll guess that Braun will start out at about 9 or 10. Roberts and Gamel will start out about 40-ish, and none of the others, including Inman (who is this guy) will make the list.

[uwisfan]

I'd guess he'll be about 7th. Rogers was in the 10 range last year, and he was a HS pitcher. Braun is a proven college commodity.

[Katuluu]

Toby isn't a fan of him and has said he'll probably be somewhere around the low-teens.

[Anders34]

I think he just misses out on the top 10

[pogokat]

i bet 13th

[PeaveyFury]

And to answer an earlier question, yeah, I believe he waits until they're signed to put them on.

[DHonks]

I'd put him 14th as of now, with Yo sliding up and Nelson falling behind him. But, he'll have to have a good half season to remain that high

[foamboy1]

I guess #12

[dadofandrew]

I'd have him between 5-7. He certainly has a much higher ceiling than Krynzel, for example.

[RyDogg66]

yeah but Krynzel has a decent minor league resume. Braun is completely unknown at this time. I'd put him about 13-15.

[DHonks]

I'd have Braun in the teens for a simple reason--he hasn't done decently in AA. The advantage Krynzel has over him is that David plays a position where if he hits .250 with a decent amount of walks, he'll have a 10-15 year big league career. Braun doesn't have that luxury as not many guys are paid to be like David Bell...gritty leaders with some power as their only tool.

[SoCalBrewfan]

He's about a year younger than Brad Nelson, 15 months younger than Weeks and Hardy, a year and a half younger than Hart, two full years younger than Krynzel. So part of a comparison for me is, where do you think Braun will be a year from now, or the end of next season? AA I would guess, if things go right, which combined with position and history puts him well behind Hardy and Weeks. Now I'd imagine that he has a higher ceilling with the bat than Nelson or Hart, in addition to more potential defensive value, but also needs to prove himself (both offensively and defensively). To me that puts him around 10 plus or minus 3, depending on what you think of the pitchers in there. Of course Hardy and delaRosa are basically off the list now, and Weeks will be by the end of the year...if Braun hits and plays defense like they think he will, he could be top 5 by the offseason. If he's a LF, he's between the two Nelsons (Brad & Cruz) in my mind.

 

Toby is pretty vehement in his dislike of Braun already, which seems more than a bit premature to me.

[Never Outhustled]

Braun doesn't have that luxury as not many guys are paid to be like David Bell...gritty leaders with some power as their only tool.

 

Fortunetly, that doesn't describe Braun. Baseball America had Braun as one of the fastest college players in the draft, and he had 21 steals in 22 attempts this year. He also hits for average as well as power. While many compared Ryan Zimmerman to Jeff Cirillo before the draft for his ability to spray linedrives, it was Braun who hit for the higher average. With Hardy going off the power 50 soon, Braun should take his slot.

 

Toby won't put him that high, as Toby thinks he knows draft prospects better than the entire Brewer scouting department. Just remember last season, when Toby gave us the comedy of ranking 4th round pick Josh Baker ahead of 3rd rounder Josh Wahpehpah. The 20 year old Wahpehpah has been good with great peripherils at A ball, while the 23 year Baker has been crushed at the same level.

[Wytlaf]

I can't see Braun in the top 10 until at least seeing how he fairs in A ball. I'd agree with DHonks that he's probably a low to mid teen type guy. I've liked what I've seen in the few games I've gotten to see him play, which is a very small sample, but translating college success through 4 lvls of minor league baseball to MLB is something else entirely. There have been so many talented guys don't ever make it to the bigs for so many different reasons which is why I'll say again that I have a hard time getting excited about anyone lower than AA. Actually, to be honest I'm more of skeptic until they reach the majors and produce, until then it's just a "whatever". Even then my hopes have been dashed in the past like a Pat Listache (sp?) for example. I do have my favorite prospects though, but I'm just not as fanatical as some. As I said previously, I enjoy the power 50 for Toby's comments which I find insightful and humorous, I don't worry about the actual rankings.

 

Seth

[filthyfrog]

Personally, I'd rank Braun ahead of Corey Hart and Brad Nelson, as long as he stays at 3B. Technically that would put him at # 7, although one could argue that a couple of the pitchers right behind that slot could go in front of him.

 

Anyway, I think his tools and performance make him a top 10 talent. He's not the prospect that Weeks was coming out of college, but I don't think he's far behind.

[Playing Catch]

So what about the other '05 picks. Will Toby show them any love?

[plowjockey]

It may help our perspective in this to note that highly touted Roque Mercedes is #18 and hasn't thrown a pitch yet. Any new player starting in the top 10, before they've even seen a professional pitch is just unreasonable(reference the distinguished careers of Chad Green and Atone Williamson for background.) I agree with the early to mid teens sentiment.

[nodderman]

As I look at the archives, I see that Rogers was placed at number 10 after he was signed if I remember right from when I looked last night... Maybe its because we were not as deep as we are now, or maybe we need to realize that this is a college player with more experience than Rogers had just coming out of High School.

[madbad2000]

If I would guess I would say that when Braun signs he should be about 17...then when promotions happen to Rickie and JJ, Jorge De La Rosa soon??...he would be about 14. Everyone above him still has very good upside and has some combination of the following: younger, higher level, same level but younger (Rogers + Gallardo). Assuming Braun goes straight to West Virginia.

[colbyjack]

You may disagree with Toby on Braun's projected future path, but I don't see why you would make a point to take a shot at his P50 efforts over the years. While everyone hits and misses on players, I always think back to Toby picking Corey Hart as a sleeper way back when everyone called him John http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Anyway, if Braun isn't in the top 10, he's either getting screwed or it's a tribute to the strength of the Brewers minor league system. Any high first round pick should find his way into the top 10 upon signing based on potential alone.

 

As for the others, I'm sure we'll see Gamel next, given the early love for him. I would argue that Inman should be ahead of him, given where the Brewers took him and the money they gave him (which obviously tells you how much they think about him).

 

Good stuff. I say put Braun at 9.

[And That]

I will respond to this (especially X's criticisms) tomorrow or Friday, but the highest he'll go is 13, behind last year's first rounder who has actually played pro ball.

 

Though I will say those idiots at BA also had Baker ahead of Wahpepah.

[jwaltz]

SoCal is posting from the future. And why is my post before his when I posted afterwards?

[SoCalBrewfan]

Huh, apparently what I wrote yesterday slipped through a wormhole and reappeared tomorrow. If I could do it the other way around maybe I could slip myself some stock tips...

 

Edit: Same goes for DHonks, whose post from this evening is already here. I know Arizona is weird for its neighbors, not observing daylight savings...but a whole day offset must make things really hard.

[DHonks]

I've often disagreed with Toby, but it's completely unfair to criticize him. He puts a lot of work into this whole process, and deserves praise. How many people would know of all 50 if not for him pimping them? I think if we had 5 people develop a power 50, we'd find that there would be some variance, but for the most part they'd be similar.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Well, Toby's becoming a public figure, so he does figure to get some flack...but I'm sure he knows how much his efforts are appreciated. He's made some great calls, as with Hart, and he's been burned...just as all prospect mavens have.

 

While it's fun to speculate and argue about Braun's initial placement, it's also a pretty arbitrary thing...if he performs, he'll move up from that initial placement.

 

I agree with Colby that Inman is a fascinating case...the second round money suggests they see something there...I don't really know what to expect of the guy. Roque Mercedes is at 18 before his first pro appearance, Mike Jones is at 26, Glenn Woolard at 32...so Inman is maybe in the 20s? Or as low as Carlos Villanueva who is down there at 35? His first spot is just a wild guess, as far as I'm concerned...soon we'll all have a clearer picture.

 

edit: Let's do the time warp...again.