Luis Valbuena

[BrewerKeg]

What kind of free agent contract will Luis Valbuena demand this off season? Wouldn't mind having him at 3B for the next 2 years with Villar moving to 2B and Perez the super sub.

[JohnBriggs12]

Good question. He fits the profile of what the Brewers could use (a LH bat with some pop and decent defense) and can't rule out the Houston connection coming into play. I'd be wary of going over 2 years and $15 million, but certainly he could be fit into the budget for a bit more than that. I can't imagine the Astros extending a QO. Only downside for me was he sort of represented the kind of players the Cubs trotted out there when they were tanking, though he's improved since then.

[reillymcshane]

Valbueno is a guy I'd be wary of due to his injury this year (as well as some other things), but I understand the appeal. Hit .260 last year, has power, bats left handed. He takes his walks - 10-13% every year. Average defender. And he's not that old - turns 31 next month.

 

However, the .260 BA is his best batting average ever. He's been more in the .220-.250 range. And the guy probably would need to sit against lefties. He has some pretty big splits the last three years:

 

2016: .841 OPS vs righties / .741 OPS vs lefties

2015: .808 / .581

2014: .811 / .610

 

The guy is 31, so I don't expect him to get better. Also, he had surgery on his hamstring in August. To envision him losing a little quickness and/or speed is not crazy. I'd be very sure the guy is healthy. Hammy injuries can really dog a player, and if you just chip away a little at Valbuena's skill set, he could really plummet (I think of Weeks after his ankle injury. He was never the same. Lost a little speed, a little lateral movement, a little edge - it really hurt him).

 

As for what will he get paid? Assuming he's healthy, I'm guessing around 2/$12M. Around what Freese got from Pittsburgh.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd be more worried if his injury involved a joint (see Hart). He never had any speed. I wouldn't be too concerned about his lower BA either. Part of that is he's never been able to beat out infield hits plus his first couple years in Chicago, the lineup around him was horrible. I like his slugging over a 3 year period was pretty consistent. For a couple years, he should be near his peak.

 

Not an All Star by any means, but a guy who could be solid LH platoon at 3B with Perez. They'd still need an upgrade over Nieuwenhuis in the 4th OF role, and that might involve some expense as well, but Valbuena should provide close to what Gennett has done from the left side with slightly more HR and a bit lower BA but close to the same OBP.

[MKE81]

He was at 6.1M this year and had the best year of his career in terms of production vs ABs so he should command that at minimum and I don't think he's an every day player to begin with let alone worth paying that much as a platoon guy. Clearly we don't have any 3b in the pipeline who are ready to take the position over like an Arcia coming into SS. I like Cecchini even though he lacks HR power. He'll give you good ABs and last year got back on track as a lower K type guy. I can see a 265/330/710 for him so I don't think Valbuena is worth it even though he packs more punch. I can't see Stearns signing him vs going internal or trading a prospect for some young talent that's blocked and needs an opportunity (ie Villar, Broxton and now Susac)

[jerichoholicninja]

Why is the real question. He's at the end of/leaving his prime and would only take away AB's from Perez, Rivera, and any other young infielders.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Why is the real question. He's at the end of/leaving his prime and would only take away AB's from Perez, Rivera, and any other young infielders.

 

Although I still think they probably pick up a third baseman another way, the Brewers' lack of infield options in the upper level of the minor leagues is why Valbuena makes about as much sense as any possible free agent signing. Perez would still get plenty of at bats as the top backup at three infield positions (which seems to be the role the Brewers would prefer to have him in). Rivera's defense will keep him in the picture, but his stat line last year, including AAA, makes it tough for me to see him as a guy you're reserving Major League at bats for. I could see Cecchini coming back on a minor league deal because someone has to play third base at Colorado Springs, but he struggled to post a .700+ OPS in the thin air. Basically, so many pointed out in the other thread, Erceg is the most advanced likely third base prospect in the system right now, and he hasn't played above A ball.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why is the real question. He's at the end of/leaving his prime and would only take away AB's from Perez, Rivera, and any other young infielders.

 

Rivera is a fringe major league utility infielder. Those guys are a dime a dozen. They've stated they like Perez' versatility. He's like their insurance policy if someone anywhere goes down. The premise for signing a guy like Valbuena is if Gennett is traded, they'll have one LH bat in their lineup to face RH pitching or be forced to play Nieuwenhuis (if he's still around).

 

Valbuena's no great player, but he's a solid defender at 3B, and can also play 2B and 1B, and he's averaged about 2 WAR per year over the last 4 seasons. Assuming Gennett's gone, he'd be platooned at 3B with Perez, who'd be freed up to fill in other places when Valbuena's playing 3B. Even if he costs, say $7 or $8 million, about $2.5 to $3.0 million would be offset by Gennett's departure. There's zero reason that Valbuena at 31 can't be the same hitter he was at 28 or 29. If he were say 34 or 35, then age might be an issue.

 

It was suggested Cecchini would be a viable option. Really? A guy who posted an anemic .705 OPS at Colorado Springs? I'd be shocked if Cecchini spends another day on a major league roster.

 

I won't do handstands if they signed Valbuena, but he was at Houston when Stearns was there, and FA aren't flocking to Milwaukee these days. Valbuena is a guy that might. He fills a need for some LH punch for a lineup that is in need of it and he won't command a long term commitment.

[MKE81]

Why is the real question. He's at the end of/leaving his prime and would only take away AB's from Perez, Rivera, and any other young infielders.

 

Although I still think they probably pick up a third baseman another way, the Brewers' lack of infield options in the upper level of the minor leagues is why Valbuena makes about as much sense as any possible free agent signing. Perez would still get plenty of at bats as the top backup at three infield positions (which seems to be the role the Brewers would prefer to have him in). Rivera's defense will keep him in the picture, but his stat line last year, including AAA, makes it tough for me to see him as a guy you're reserving Major League at bats for. I could see Cecchini coming back on a minor league deal because someone has to play third base at Colorado Springs, but he struggled to post a .700+ OPS in the thin air. Basically, so many pointed out in the other thread, Erceg is the most advanced likely third base prospect in the system right now, and he hasn't played above A ball.

I hear what you're saying overall but I don't think Valbuena or any other FA 3b makes sense at all given Stearns' strategy. In regard to Cecchini, he isn't a power guy so I don't read much into his OPS in an environment like CO. I definitely think he's "capable" of keeping his BA in that area while improving his OBP another 15+ so that would put his OPS in the 720 area (closing in on what Perez did but would get on base more). I think he's capable of doing that but even if he's a 265/330/710 guy he can still help this team. Even if him and Perez split time at 3b it can work. I would also do what you mentioned in bringing Cecchini back on a minor league deal and have him earn that job in ST otherwise he fills that spot in AAA. I think Stearns still trades for a young, blocked 3b and gives him a chance but if he doesn't I can see a split of Cecchini/Perez at 3b (both can fill in at 1b too).

[reillymcshane]

I agree with most of what Briggs says about the 3B situation - assuming Villar moves to SS full time and Scooter is dealt.

 

Valbuena isn't anything great, but he could suffice for a couple of years while a guy like Erceg moves up the ladder in the minors. Valbuena's defense is average - nothing more, nothing less. He provides power and hits left handed. He's also pretty versatile - having played 3B, 2B and 1B the last couple of years.

 

I'm not so concerned about Rivera. I just don't see the bat ever getting better - so it's not like you're blocking someone special.

 

I've always liked Cecchini (I love OBP type guys), but last year was disappointing. I was hoping he'd hit .300 and pop 10-15 HR at Colorado Springs - and get a chance in Milwaukee. No luck. And his defense has never been considered very good. He'll be 26 in April, so time is running out. I wouldn't be shocked if he is taken off the 40 man roster. All that said, if something clicks he still has a chance. But I just don't see it happening - as much as I would like it to.

 

Adding a guy like Valbuena at $5-7M for a couple of years isn't a huge commitment. We certainly have the financial ability to take on a modest contract or two. He would offer a bridge to the younger players in the system. Perez could play against lefties. Valbuena would probably be an okay backup at 1B - maybe even get a few starts.

 

I am honestly not advocating for Valbuena. I can just see the decision makers rationalizing his acquisition: It's not too expensive, isn't for too long, it fills a couple of needs (lefty bat, 3B), it's not blocking a young player, and allows Perez to stay in the super utility role.

 

Again, you have to make sure Valbuena is healthy after having surgery on his hamstring. And I certainly would scour the market for a younger and cheaper replacement - such as what we did with Broxton and Villar.

 

The latter option - trying to find a young guy - is my preferred route. But you still have to find a guy you are happy with, and who another team is willing to trade. That doesn't always happen.

[logan82]

I agree with most of what Briggs says about the 3B situation - assuming Villar moves to SS full time and Scooter is dealt.

Where does Arcia play?

[And That]

Guessing reilly meant 2B for Villar.

[TURBO]

I agree with most of what Briggs says about the 3B situation - assuming Villar moves to SS full time and Scooter is dealt.

 

 

Highly unlikely with Arcia filling the SS position...

[CheeseheadInQC]

I hear what you're saying overall but I don't think Valbuena or any other FA 3b makes sense at all given Stearns' strategy. In regard to Cecchini, he isn't a power guy so I don't read much into his OPS in an environment like CO. I definitely think he's "capable" of keeping his BA in that area while improving his OBP another 15+ so that would put his OPS in the 720 area (closing in on what Perez did but would get on base more). I think he's capable of doing that but even if he's a 265/330/710 guy he can still help this team. Even if him and Perez split time at 3b it can work. I would also do what you mentioned in bringing Cecchini back on a minor league deal and have him earn that job in ST otherwise he fills that spot in AAA. I think Stearns still trades for a young, blocked 3b and gives him a chance but if he doesn't I can see a split of Cecchini/Perez at 3b (both can fill in at 1b too).

 

Cecchini's road splits last year were .215/.287/.290, and he hasn't had that elite walk rate for a couple of years. I could see things clicking back into place for him at some point, but it would likely have to happen first in the minor leagues. Given his stats the last two years (his second and third go-arounds in AAA), I can't see him getting a big league shot to start next year from the Brewers or any other team. At this point I'd see Aaron Hill coming back as a stopgap as more likely. If the Brewers are set on shifting Villar to 2B, Perez is the only legitimate option currently in the Brewers system, and even then, I'm guessing Perez's replacement as the utility guy likely comes from outside the organization.

[bensheeps]

Don't want to turn this into a Cecchini thread but couldn't agree more with reilly.

 

I've always liked Cecchini (I love OBP type guys), but last year was disappointing. I was hoping he'd hit .300 and pop 10-15 HR at Colorado Springs - and get a chance in Milwaukee. No luck. And his defense has never been considered very good. He'll be 26 in April, so time is running out. I wouldn't be shocked if he is taken off the 40 man roster. All that said, if something clicks he still has a chance.

 

Here's the comparison with Hernan Perez as the two of them are within a month of the same age.

 

2012 - 21 yrs old

GC = A ball .394/.433/827

HP = A+ ball .298/.338/..636

 

2013 - 22 yrs old

GC = A+ ball .469/.547/1.016 AA ball .420/.404/.825

HP = AA ball .325/.423/.747

 

2014 - 23 yrs old

GC = AAA ball .342/.371/.712

HP = AAA ball .331/.404/.735

 

2015 - 24 yrs old

GC = AAA ball .286/.296/.583

HP = MLB .257/.327/.584

 

2016 - 25 yrs old

GC = AAA ball .325/.380/.705

HP = MLB .302/.428/.730

 

Wish Cecchini had been given a shot to compete at MLB level last year to see what he could have done with the chance. Afraid now we won't know if he heads somewhere else. Maybe it won't "click" for him again, but maybe it will. Thought Nicholas Zettel said it perfectly in BP Milwaukee article http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/17/grading-trades-i-inventory/

 

A much more interesting counterbuilding deal is the cash for Garin Cecchini trade, which failed for all the reasons the Villar trade succeeded: Aaron Hill played well at 3B, Scooter Gennett revitalized his role at 2B, Chris Carter was Chris Carter at 1B, and Villar stormed SS, leaving basically no space for Cecchini to break into the MLB infield. Of course, Cecchini also did not answer certain scouting and mechanical question marks, meaning that he unsurprisingly played the full season in the minor leagues. So, there remains some future value in terms of the basic depth that Cecchini provides to the Brewers (40-Man infield / corner profile depth security), but one may now question whether Cecchini will receive the blank slate chance to succeed in 2017 that Villar capitalized on in 2016.

[MKE81]

I don't think people should have expected Cecchini to hit 300 this past year given his 2015 was so awful. His 2014 and 2016 years in AAA were very similar overall and on the surface that's not what you want to see given he's older with more experience but his 2015 was so bad he had so much to work on to start getting back to where he was. I think he gained confidence this year having a solid bounce back from where he was. It wasn't a great year but he was an above average AAA player. The main thing I wish he did better was get on base, get closer to a 340-350 mark. His 2016 road numbers were nowhere near what they were in 2014 and 2015 (2014 had better road numbers across the board than home and 2015 had better BA on road, similar OBP for both and higher OPS at home). If he can get back to having those much better road numbers his AAA in CO moving forward could definitely be 300/360/760ish, which is why I think he should be given an opportunity to win the 3b job in ST just like Broxton was given the chance to win CF in ST competing against several other players.

 

The Brewers got lucky with Hill for 3 months. His production in Boston was the same as his 2014 and 2015 years. I don't think he should be resigned and I don't think any other FA 3b makes sense either leaving Cecchini given an opportunity prove his worth and Stearns trading for a young, blocked 3b who's ready for this level (Perez is clearly working in at 3b too).

[And That]

It wasn't a great year but he was an above average AAA player.

Given that his defense at third is perhaps adequate, though probably not much more than that, and given that Cecchini's .316 wOBA was about 70th percentile for the PCL, I have a tough time seeing the argument for above average AAA player.

 

I like Cecchini and don't think it would be a mistake to keep him on the 40-man roster this offseason. And it is working in Cecchini's favor that the Brewers don't have a ton of minor leaguers that will need to be added to the 40-man (though Taylor Williams' re-emergence might cost someone a spot). But I would be modestly surprised if the Brewers don't outright him in the next few weeks/months.

 

As for Valbuena, thank you, no, unless he's willing to sign a below-market deal.

[reillymcshane]

Guessing reilly meant 2B for Villar.

Yes, thank you.

[reillymcshane]

I agree with most of what Briggs says about the 3B situation - assuming Villar moves to SS full time and Scooter is dealt.

Where does Arcia play?

Villar at 2B. Sorry it was that confusing.

[reillymcshane]

I agree with most of what Briggs says about the 3B situation - assuming Villar moves to SS full time and Scooter is dealt.

 

 

Highly unlikely with Arcia filling the SS position...

Again, Villar to 2B.

 

Sorry about the error. Didn't realize people would be confused by that.

[MKE81]

It wasn't a great year but he was an above average AAA player.

Given that his defense at third is perhaps adequate, though probably not much more than that, and given that Cecchini's .316 wOBA was about 70th percentile for the PCL, I have a tough time seeing the argument for above average AAA player.

 

I like Cecchini and don't think it would be a mistake to keep him on the 40-man roster this offseason. And it is working in Cecchini's favor that the Brewers don't have a ton of minor leaguers that will need to be added to the 40-man (though Taylor Williams' re-emergence might cost someone a spot). But I would be modestly surprised if the Brewers don't outright him in the next few weeks/months.

 

As for Valbuena, thank you, no, unless he's willing to sign a below-market deal.

I don't rely on specific sabermetrics as they never tell the entire story but I understand your argument and sure, one can be made for not being an above average AAA player. He has the skill set and tools to be an average MLB player and needs a chance to prove this regardless of him not having a great year. Whether he steps up and seizes it is on him. I think they'll keep him off the 40 man too but sign him to compete in ST because, like you said, there aren't any other 3b at the moment at this level at I don't think they should give up on him right now. I'm more excited to see if Stearns is going to make a trade for a young, blocked 3b though.

[And That]

Yah, I think it's quite possible (likely?) that the Brewers' starting third baseman next year is not currently in the organization, though I kind of hope it's a blocked prospect like you mentioned or even a slightly-too-old-to-be-a-prospect guy like T.J. Rivera or Rob Segedin, and not Valbuena.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't think people should have expected Cecchini to hit 300 this past year given his 2015 was so awful. His 2014 and 2016 years in AAA were very similar overall and on the surface that's not what you want to see given he's older with more experience but his 2015 was so bad he had so much to work on to start getting back to where he was. I think he gained confidence this year having a solid bounce back from where he was. It wasn't a great year but he was an above average AAA player. The main thing I wish he did better was get on base, get closer to a 340-350 mark. His 2016 road numbers were nowhere near what they were in 2014 and 2015 (2014 had better road numbers across the board than home and 2015 had better BA on road, similar OBP for both and higher OPS at home). If he can get back to having those much better road numbers his AAA in CO moving forward could definitely be 300/360/760ish, which is why I think he should be given an opportunity to win the 3b job in ST just like Broxton was given the chance to win CF in ST competing against several other players.

 

The Brewers got lucky with Hill for 3 months. His production in Boston was the same as his 2014 and 2015 years. I don't think he should be resigned and I don't think any other FA 3b makes sense either leaving Cecchini given an opportunity prove his worth and Stearns trading for a young, blocked 3b who's ready for this level (Perez is clearly working in at 3b too).

 

I was using the road numbers to illustrate that Colorado Springs was in full effect. Given that he failed to really hit anywhere else, you could make a good case that his performance wasn't actually that much better than 2015, he just had the benefit of the thin air and what that does to the baseball half the time. The problem is, one of the big things that made him an interesting prospect was his walk rate and the on-base skills that led to. He needed to recapture that, and he actually slid further last season, hitting an all-time low on his walk rate. Of guys who've played third, he got out-performed at CS last year by Perez, Middlebrooks, Elmore and Orf.

 

I can't see him surviving the offseason on the 40-man. He's out of options, and the sample size in spring training is likely too small for him to win a big league job. If he can get his walk rate back closer to where it was when he was in A and AA, he'll likely have a major league future, but he's almost certainly going to have to show that in the minor leagues first before he gets another shot.

[LouisEly]

With Perez destined for a super-utility role and no upper-level prospect deserving of a shot, the question becomes who is a buy-low candidate that can potentially be flipped at the deadline. LHH power bats always have value at the deadline, and Valbuena's injury should add risk that reduces his value in the open market making him a viable buy-low candidate.

 

Just because the Brewers sign a guy for X number of years doesn't mean they will have him on the payroll for X number of years; if you sign guys who can be tradeable they could end up being just a 2/3rds of a season rental.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree with most of what Briggs says about the 3B situation - assuming Villar moves to SS full time and Scooter is dealt.

 

 

Highly unlikely with Arcia filling the SS position...

Again, Villar to 2B.

 

Sorry about the error. Didn't realize people would be confused by that.

 

I knew what you meant.