The future at 3B

[MrTPlush]

Now they have payroll room. As the prospects mature they will cost more. Much like things went with our last round of talent. As the talent aged it got more expensive. $2m here, $3m there adds up fast.

 

What added up were lots of extensions. Even then we still had money in the budget for decent FA signings(money wise Ramirez/Garza). So there will be money to fill a position or two or more through FA. How much depends on what will can fill in house.

[adambr2]

The only free agent 3rd baseman that I see out there of significance this offseason is Justin Turner. Obviously, he would really solidify 3rd. However he is in line for a significant payday, probably in the neighborhood of 15-20M a year over 4 or 5 years. I would not commit that kind of a deal to a free agent this early when we still don't really know yet where we are and how close we are to contention.

 

It's possible they will give Perez a shot as the everyday guy, but I think they prefer him as a super sub. If we don't end up acquiring a 3rd base prospect who can slide right in or a young flier like Villar, I would guess a low cost veteran stopgap like Aaron Hill is a strong possibility.

 

That sort of thing could be good, especially if he could be flipped for a lottery ticket prospect or two at the end of July.

 

I think a lot depends, though, on the market for Scooter Gennett. If Gennett can be dealt for a good return, debating the options at third base (Hernan Perez, Braun, Ryan Cordell, low-cost FA, prospect acquired) can happen.

 

If Gennett can't be dealt, then I'm content to stand pat with Villar at the hot corner - and see if he can get to the 20-60 mark this year.

 

 

It sounds like they are pretty set on Villar being at 2nd. If he's at all in the plans at 3rd in 2017, I'd be surprised.

 

Given that Scooter is a fairly low cost, controllable option at 2nd, I'm sure he's tradeable. His standalone value though, I would guess, is very minimal. At worst, I'd guess he'd return something around the Aaron Hill return, at best, probably a prospect in the 150-200 range. But Stearns has surprised me before.

 

I can very well see Scooter being included in a trade to the Dodgers if Braun is sent to LA, given that they could use a 2nd baseman anyway.

[clancyphile]

That sort of thing could be good, especially if he could be flipped for a lottery ticket prospect or two at the end of July.

 

I think a lot depends, though, on the market for Scooter Gennett. If Gennett can be dealt for a good return, debating the options at third base (Hernan Perez, Braun, Ryan Cordell, low-cost FA, prospect acquired) can happen.

 

If Gennett can't be dealt, then I'm content to stand pat with Villar at the hot corner - and see if he can get to the 20-60 mark this year.

 

 

It sounds like they are pretty set on Villar being at 2nd. If he's at all in the plans at 3rd in 2017, I'd be surprised.

 

Given that Scooter is a fairly low cost, controllable option at 2nd, I'm sure he's tradeable. His standalone value though, I would guess, is very minimal. At worst, I'd guess he'd return something around the Aaron Hill return, at best, probably a prospect in the 150-200 range. But Stearns has surprised me before.

 

I can very well see Scooter being included in a trade to the Dodgers if Braun is sent to LA, given that they could use a 2nd baseman anyway.

 

At Inside the Brewers, they said they needed to get a return commensurate with Braun's value.

 

Honestly, Yasiel Puig is NOT it.

 

And the Dodgers have Willie Calhoun - who cranked out 27 homers at AA - in their system at second.

 

Trading Braun to L.A. does not look like a match to me.

[adambr2]

Braun to LA looks like about as good of a match to me as we're going to get. Most importantly, it's somewhere he'd want to go and can't block a trade. There's no point in even discussing somewhere he would block going, no matter how good the match looks.

 

So that leaves LA and very few other teams. Calhoun is still a year or two away, which is why Scooter matches up for them as a stopgap. No one is interested in Scooter as their 2B of the future.

 

LA has some intriguing pitching prospects. Puig may not be 'It' on his own, but he is very possibly part of a potential package and certainly the type of buy low with youth upside that Stearns would be interested in, no matter how much some here might not like it.

 

We are (Brewers) interested in Puig. People can think whatever they want about his character, but the waiver claim and near trade for our longtime franchise player is about as obvious of an indication as you'll get that our interred in Puig is genuine. Nothing has happened since the end of August that would diminish our interest, so if it happens, we all may as well get on board.

[jerichoholicninja]

That Korean 3B who wanted to come over here last off season but no one bid on him wants to try again. He's a year older (32 or 33) and if no one bid on him last year I can't imagine there'd be much interest this year. He may even just be a free agent. Contract wise, Byung Ho Park made $3M and Dae-Ho Lee made $1M last year. Given his age he doesn't make much sense for Milwaukee but if they want a veteran to split 3B with Perez I guess I'd prefer this guy to some retreads like Kelly Johnson, etc.

[MKE81]

Trading away an elite defensive CF who almost everyone reports to have 30/30 potential for a lefty 3b Top 75 prospect is extremely illogical. He's a true 5 tool player.

Of course he has 30/30 potential. The question is, what is the probability of reaching that potential, and what do his other numbers besides home runs and stolen bases project to be? I remember 2.5 years ago when everyone was really excited when the Brewers drafted and signed Monte Harrison. He has 30/30 potential. What are the odds of him reaching that potential? Pretty low. I never said Brinson is not a great prospect. I just happen to think that he's more of a top-75-ish prospect than a top 25-ish, and here is why.

 

Brinson has never put up great numbers anywhere that weren't:

 

1) a small sample

B) in a hitter-friendly league (Cal, PCL)

 

2014 - .985 OPS over 43 games/186 PAs in low-A - small sample (.413 BABIP)

2015 - 1.044 OPS over 64 games/298 PAs in High A at High Desert - hitter friendly league/ballpark (.402 BABIP)

2016 - 1.005 OPS over 23 games/93 PAs in AAA at Colorado Springs - hitter friendly league/ballpark and a small sample (.455 BABIP)

 

Look at his BABIP in those leagues/seasons - that simply is not sustainable. (For reference, Tony Gwynn's career BABIP in the majors was .341.) Add in the low walk rate... and there is significant evidence to believe that he is not a top-25 prospect and that his composite AA numbers with the Rangers (.251/.293/.461, .754 OPS) might be closer to reality than what he did at AAA for the Brewers this year.

You can continue to cherry pick to fit your narrative all day (ie he hasn't product outside hitter friendly without mentioning he was almost 3yrs young for age level at those other places). And NO, everyone wasn't excited about Monte Harrison. I have never been a fan of his, or Gatewood for that matter. It's absurd to compare Harrison, who hasn't accomplished anything, to someone (Brinson) who is a Top 15-20 overall that has actually produced in the minors and showed he has the potential to be a 30/30. Even if he's a 20/20 it doesn't matter because there were only TWO of those guys in MLB this year (under qualified stats). He will absolutely be a 20/20 and I think 25/25 is very realistic. 30/30 will take a great season and those don't happen too often anyway, but his potential is real to hit that unlike Harrison (who was projected for that before he even played pro ball - what's that projection right now?)

 

264/344/813 in 611 AB in A ball with 31HR, 31SB at age 19/20

299/372/885 in 411 AB in A+ with 16HR, 18SB at age 20/21

(see below for AA)

300/408/983 AFL

395/431/1036 in 119 AB in AAA with 5HR, 7SB at age 21/22 (guess it doesn't count because it's PCL - not like elite prospects should be putting up outrageous numbers or anything, right?)

 

You can cite his overall AA numbers with TX at 251/293/754 in 414 AB to prove your point but I prefer to provide context. 2015 AA at age 21 had 110 AB 291/328/873 (8 doubles, 6HR, 23rbi in 28 games) combined with his AA this year where he was clearly injured. By all accounts his injury played a role in his performance. The injury and his 2015 are relevant. Nobody is saying he's going to be a 330/410/950 player. But the struggles he's had (injury excluded) are more likely due to him being almost 3yrs younger for age level rather than the park he's playing in. You thinking him putting up 1000+ OPS in hitter friendly parks will result in a realistic 251/293/754 is beyond me. That OPS is a massive drop. And last I checked Miller Park is rather hitter friendly. Also, yet again on this board, no mention of his defense being great including having a strong arm.

 

Nobody ever said that you didn't think Brinson was a great prospect. What people said was you don't trade an top 5 tool prospect at a premium defensive position for a position of need (3b) that can be filled some other way.

[LouisEly]

I like to provide context too:

 

264/344/813 in 611 AB in A ball with 31HR, 31SB at age 19/20 (BABIP - .362, .413)

299/372/885 in 411 AB in A+ with 16HR, 18SB at age 20/21 (BABIP - .323, .402)

(see below for AA) (BABIP - .333, .264)

300/408/983 AFL (49 PA's, BABIP .355)

395/431/1036 in 119 AB in AAA with 5HR, 7SB at age 21/22 (BABIP - .522, .455)

 

Nobody ever said that you didn't think Brinson was a great prospect. What people said was you don't trade a top 5 tool prospect at a premium defensive position for a position of need (3b) that can be filled some other way.

Yes, you do - you trade from positions of depth (OF) to shore up positions of need (3B). Brinson isn't the only CF prospect they have in the system, and it's highly unlikely that they sign a FA 3B who is going to be anything special, therefore they likely have to trade for a 3B. The extremely high BABIPs suggest he may be overrated, and if that's the case then an argument could be made that you sell high on him before he starts looking like Byron Buxton or Delmon Young, both of whom put up great numbers in A/AA at 19/20/21.

 

The Cubs traded a top prospect at the most premium defensive position (SP) for a 1B - a position that is relatively easy to fill via other means - and I don't think they've regretted it one bit.

[MrTPlush]

The Cubs traded a top prospect at the most premium defensive position (SP) for a 1B - a position that is relatively easy to fill via other means - and I don't think they've regretted it one bit.

 

Anthony Rizzo was a Top 50 prospect while Andrew Cashner was only once in his entire career ranked a Top 100 prospect. He barely squeezed in Pre-2010 at #95 with BA.

 

Then again this makes sense to you because you think Brinson is around #75 while everyone else on the planet agrees he is in the Top 20. So I guess the only person who is going to agree with you on trading Brinson for a #75 area 3B prospect is you.

 

Everyone else is going to think, "Wow that sounds a whole lot like when the Padres downgraded to fill a position of need and it backfired on them massively."

[logan82]

On the flip side you might get more for a guy if he pans out at the MLB level.

[MNBrew]

The only free agent 3rd baseman that I see out there of significance this offseason is Justin Turner. Obviously, he would really solidify 3rd. However he is in line for a significant payday, probably in the neighborhood of 15-20M a year over 4 or 5 years. I would not commit that kind of a deal to a free agent this early when we still don't really know yet where we are and how close we are to contention.

 

It's possible they will give Perez a shot as the everyday guy, but I think they prefer him as a super sub. If we don't end up acquiring a 3rd base prospect who can slide right in or a young flier like Villar, I would guess a low cost veteran stopgap like Aaron Hill is a strong possibility.

 

That sort of thing could be good, especially if he could be flipped for a lottery ticket prospect or two at the end of July.

 

I think a lot depends, though, on the market for Scooter Gennett. If Gennett can be dealt for a good return, debating the options at third base (Hernan Perez, Braun, Ryan Cordell, low-cost FA, prospect acquired) can happen.

 

If Gennett can't be dealt, then I'm content to stand pat with Villar at the hot corner - and see if he can get to the 20-60 mark this year.

Maybe I'm missing something, but don't the Dodgers still have Howie Kendrick, who's a 2B stuck out in the OF at times because of a lack of other healthy or productive options?

 

It sounds like they are pretty set on Villar being at 2nd. If he's at all in the plans at 3rd in 2017, I'd be surprised.

 

Given that Scooter is a fairly low cost, controllable option at 2nd, I'm sure he's tradeable. His standalone value though, I would guess, is very minimal. At worst, I'd guess he'd return something around the Aaron Hill return, at best, probably a prospect in the 150-200 range. But Stearns has surprised me before.

 

I can very well see Scooter being included in a trade to the Dodgers if Braun is sent to LA, given that they could use a 2nd baseman anyway.

Maybe I'm missing something, but isn't Howie Kendrick still a 2B? Yes, he played a lot of OF last year, but I believe that was more for LA having a lack of other quality OF options and wanting to keep his bat in the lineup on account of Chase Utley. Kendrick, career-wise, is a 2B (1112 games at 2B vs. 121 total in the OF, most of which were in 2016) who also has another year left on his contract. At the same time, looking at his numbers at this point in his career, Kendrick's not somebody I'd want as part of a return in any trade even if his contract helps offset money sent the Dodgers' way.

[adambr2]

Maybe, but it seems that the Dodgers prefer Kendrick as a supersub type player at this point. Given that Scooter is more of a platoon player anyway at this point I don't think Kendrick's presence would prevent the Dodgers from being a match for Scooter. Plus Kendrick will be 34 and entering the last year of his contract.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Who knows if he's the type of guy the Brewers would target or if they think he'll hit big league pitching, but on a very surface level a Gennett-Kaleb Cowart deal with the Angels kind of makes sense for both teams.

[JohnBriggs12]

Who knows if he's the type of guy the Brewers would target or if they think he'll hit big league pitching, but on a very surface level a Gennett-Kaleb Cowart deal with the Angels kind of makes sense for both teams.

 

If Cowart had shown anything in 139 major league plate appearances or posted a more impressive AAA OPS in hitter friendly Salt Lake City it would make sense. But I can't see Cowart having any appeal to the Brewers, except maybe as a non-roster signee if the Angels cut him loose.

 

I'd rather have Jefry Marte.

[MKE81]

The Cubs traded a top prospect at the most premium defensive position (SP) for a 1B - a position that is relatively easy to fill via other means - and I don't think they've regretted it one bit.

 

Anthony Rizzo was a Top 50 prospect while Andrew Cashner was only once in his entire career ranked a Top 100 prospect. He barely squeezed in Pre-2010 at #95 with BA.

 

Then again this makes sense to you because you think Brinson is around #75 while everyone else on the planet agrees he is in the Top 20. So I guess the only person who is going to agree with you on trading Brinson for a #75 area 3B prospect is you.

 

Everyone else is going to think, "Wow that sounds a whole lot like when the Padres downgraded to fill a position of need and it backfired on them massively."

He linked Brinson to Monte Harrison and now he's linking him to Andrew Cashner. As you noted, that was a lopsided trade when it was made and it has grown into a massively lopsided trade.

 

Brison has never been a Top 3 over prospect like Delmon and Buxton. Delmon was never a CF either. CF have more value than corners. Brinson is, by all accounts, a great/true CF and will be 23 next year. Buxton is 23yrs old next year and he was rushed. He had a great 2013 then terrible AFL. 2014 he wasn't good anywhere including AFL but was injured (funny thing how injuries affect performance, right?). 2015 bounced back with strong AA/AAA and was up in MLB. This year split between AAA (great numbers) and MLB. This year in MLB had 298 AB - if he was given a full 500 AB he was on pace for 32 doubles, 10 triples, 17HR, 17SB. AS A 22YR OLD. He's going to improve without question. So do I hope Brinson is, or becomes that, YES. Neither are going to be 230/295/750 players. Brinson also has displayed much more power than him at every level. But good to know you're already throwing in the towel on Buxton.

 

I was clearly referring to "context" as in age per level and injury. But I wouldn't expect you to comprehend that. You toss around one stat (BABIP) as if that is the holy grail of analysis then say it "may" suggest he's overrated. My goodness. Just say you don't like Brinson and we can all move on.

 

Correct, you do trade from positions of strength/depth. BUT, you do so only IF you are able to. Brinson isn't the only CF in the system but he's also head and shoulders better than every CF prospect we have in the system. You don't trade away your BEST position prospect, who plays a premium defensive position, for a position of need, given the current status of the org. That's the key point. If we are already playoff competitive with an established, young CF with other corner OF being highly thought of then you're in a position to trade Brinson. But the Brewers aren't in that position so it makes zero sense to trade him. And we don't NEED a great 3b right now. Which is why you trade one of our Top 25-35 prospects for a 3b that's young and blocked and give that player a chance at the MLB level to hold over until Erceg rolls through.

[FVBrewerFan]

If we are already playoff competitive with an established, young CF with other corner OF being highly thought of then you're in a position to trade Brinson. But the Brewers aren't in that position so it makes zero sense to trade him. And we don't NEED a great 3b right now.

 

This sums it up perfectly. Doesn't matter who the 3B is in 2017, or probably in 2018 either. It's just not time yet to worry about who will be at 1B, 3B, C, etc. Not until the rotation is ready to contend.

 

So why would you trade Brinson for a 3B prospect that isn't proven either? Brinson has abused pitching in hitters parks/ leagues. I get that. That doesn't mean his ceiling has changed, which is a 5 tool All-Star player. I'm not trading that potential for a problem that doesn't even exist.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Who knows if he's the type of guy the Brewers would target or if they think he'll hit big league pitching, but on a very surface level a Gennett-Kaleb Cowart deal with the Angels kind of makes sense for both teams.

 

If Cowart had shown anything in 139 major league plate appearances or posted a more impressive AAA OPS in hitter friendly Salt Lake City it would make sense. But I can't see Cowart having any appeal to the Brewers, except maybe as a non-roster signee if the Angels cut him loose.

 

I'd rather have Jefry Marte.

 

I would as well, but I think the price for Marte after his success last season might be more than Gennett. Gennett likely has some trade value, but it will likely be for either a slipping prospect such as Cowart who they hope will rebound or a lower level lottery ticket type. Given this thread, Cowart seemed like the most relevant option.

 

As to the Brinson discussion, is it basically just theoretical? Chapman and Candelaria seem a tier below what is being discussed and the guys above them (Moncada, Devers, Senzel) seem to either be a tier above Brinson or the same tier as him.

[MKE81]

I feel like there's plenty of young, blocked options for 3b. Just a matter of the Brewers targeting some of them and figuring out who they'd be comfortable parting with to land them. Sneed brought Villar. Rogers brought Broxton. Between a SP, Scooter and/or Top 25 or so prospect(s) Stearns should easily bring back a pretty decent 3b to take over for 2-3yrs.

[recte44]

Given that 2017/2018 are years we don't have much at stake, I'll bring up my oft-repeated proposal to move Braun back to third base until Erceg is ready for the majors.

 

Braun remains a Brewer, the team gets to look at more young outfielders... win-win.

Great googly moogly.

 

Sent from my LGLS450 using Tapatalk

[FVBrewerFan]

Can Suter play 3b for a couple years? Two agendas WHOA SOLVVD

[adambr2]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html?fv-home=true&post-id=75368

 

MLBtraderumors.com suggests Luis Valbuena as a possible match for the Brewers and projects a 2 year/14M dollar deal.

 

Valbuena is not a terrible option as a short term stopgap. He has the versatility to play elsewhere in a pinch, and offers pretty much league average D at 3rd. A Valbuena/Perez platoon would probably be good for about 20-25 HR and around a .800 OPS.

[MKE81]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html?fv-home=true&post-id=75368

 

MLBtraderumors.com suggests Luis Valbuena as a possible match for the Brewers and projects a 2 year/14M dollar deal.

 

Valbuena is not a terrible option as a short term stopgap. He has the versatility to play elsewhere in a pinch, and offers pretty much league average D at 3rd. A Valbuena/Perez platoon would probably be good for about 20-25 HR and around a .800 OPS.

He's literally the only FA that makes sense. I'd kick the tires to see if the years/money made sense (no reason to overpay for anyone) while also discussing trades for young, blocked 3b's. I'd be ok with this signing as 2 of the past 3yrs he's been good enough vs RHP. But I'd prefer to trade for a young 3b as if he becomes even an average regular then he'll have better trade value.

[reillymcshane]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html?fv-home=true&post-id=75368

 

MLBtraderumors.com suggests Luis Valbuena as a possible match for the Brewers and projects a 2 year/14M dollar deal.

 

Valbuena is not a terrible option as a short term stopgap. He has the versatility to play elsewhere in a pinch, and offers pretty much league average D at 3rd. A Valbuena/Perez platoon would probably be good for about 20-25 HR and around a .800 OPS.

He's literally the only FA that makes sense. I'd kick the tires to see if the years/money made sense (no reason to overpay for anyone) while also discussing trades for young, blocked 3b's. I'd be ok with this signing as 2 of the past 3yrs he's been good enough vs RHP. But I'd prefer to trade for a young 3b as if he becomes even an average regular then he'll have better trade value.

Valbuena wouldn't be the worst signing (especially if you keep to a two-year deal at a reasonable price), but I hope we can find someone like we did with Broxton and Villar - a younger guy who we can give a chance. But that's easier said than done.

 

But it's not like we have anyone in the minors ready to play. And the club seems to want Perez in a utility role (he could start at 3B vs lefties if they had Valbuena).

 

Valbuena - a lefty with decent power - would make sense if the club dealt Scooter. His defense is okay. He's played a bit of 1B (and even 2B) the last few years. I'm not sure how he grades out at 1B - but he probably would be fine - although he's not a big target.

 

Valbuena is pretty much a platoon bat. He did okay against lefties last year - but in the rest of his career he's been pretty awful.

 

Again, I can see the appeal, and I'd be okay with the move, but it's not like I'd be doing backflips over signing the guy.

 

I will add this - we could potentially hit a lot of HRs next year (and strikeout a ton as well).

[mlloyd10]

Call the Royals and see if we can get one of their 3B - I want Hunter Dozier, but Cheslor Cuthbert would do. Both guys are blocked by Mike Moustakas

[sveumrules]

Valbuena definitely makes a decent amount of sense. I like the Dozier/Cuthbert idea though with Moustakas (& a bunch of other core guys) hitting FA after 2017 I could see KC being hesitant to deal with an eye on them being their possible 3B/RF of the future.

 

FG published a pretty lengthy article today about Jae Gyun Hwang from Korea who might be another name to throw in the mix as he likely won't cost much. His power spiked two years ago and he maintained that power spike while drastically cutting his strikeouts last year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-good-hitter-to-come-from-south-korea/#more-236659

[Crash2303]

Valbuena definitely makes a decent amount of sense. I like the Dozier/Cuthbert idea though with Moustakas (& a bunch of other core guys) hitting FA after 2017 I could see KC being hesitant to deal with an eye on them being their possible 3B/RF of the future.

FG published a pretty lengthy article today about Jae Gyun Hwang from Korea who might be another name to throw in the mix as he likely won't cost much. His power spiked two years ago and he maintained that power spike while drastically cutting his strikeouts last year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-good-hitter-to-come-from-south-korea/#more-236659

 

All good points, but the Brewers should be staying away from known quantities with limited upside this next year, but instead be targeting guys with higher upsides who haven't gotten much of a shot to see what they can do. Outside of finding our young, high upside major league ready third baseman of the future through a trade, I also like And That's idea of Segedin and Rivera. Although they may not be future potential stars, they are at risk of turning into AAAA players because of being blocked at the MLB level. I love the idea of giving guys like them extended looks to see what they can do.