The future at 3B

[recte44]

My gut tells me Erceg is going to be a quick riser. The transition this year is key but I wouldnt be shocked to see him up here in 2018. 3b Whoa Sollved.

8-)

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[adambr2]

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

I really don't understand why some people are down on Brinson or dislike him as a prospect. He has all the tools you could ask for. Good power, average, OBP, speed, and an elite glove. Nothing not to like. I think he'll have the kind of quality defense in CF that we hope to have at SS with Arcia, only with a better bat. No shame in Brinson as your top organizational prospect.

[reillymcshane]

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

I really don't understand why some people are down on Brinson or dislike him as a prospect. He has all the tools you could ask for. Good power, average, OBP, speed, and an elite glove. Nothing not to like. I think he'll have the kind of quality defense in CF that we hope to have at SS with Arcia, only with a better bat. No shame in Brinson as your top organizational prospect.

I think it's the mediocre numbers at AA last season that worry some. And it's not just the .237 batting average. It's the weak walk rate (5.0% at AA last year - even worse - 2.2% at AAA) and high K rate (about 20% last year, and higher for his career). His numbers are sort of all over the place in the minors - brilliant one year, mediocre the next.

 

Personally, I love the guy. It looks like a lot of his struggles related to some injuries that nagged him last year - but I love his talent.

 

My biggest worries are all the injuries he's had. He just never seems to stay 100% healthy.

[3and2Fastball]

After the Estrada-Lind trade I sincerely hope we no longer trade pitchers for position players

[billymac]

Wondering if Edwin Rios from the Dodgers would be a target for the Brewers even though he's in Double A and rated as the #26 prospect for the Dodgers as part of a return for Braun. I realize he's not too far ahead of our other younger guys in Erceg or Gatewood.

 

Only reason I brought up his name is that I was looking through the Fangraphs KATOH rankings from 1/29/16 and noticed Stearns traded for a number of highly rated players last winter from this modeling system, Ramon Flores #24, Jacob Nottingham #29, Isan Diaz #69.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-list-now-incorporating-multiple-years/

 

Rios doesn't show up on that list, but he's the #2 ranked 3B from their 7/25/16 rankings at #20, one spot ahead of Orlando Arcia. Ryan Cordell showed up at #78, Phil Bickford at #104(Brinson and Cordell were the only Rangers on the list outside of Gallo, Bickford was the only Giant)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved-katoh-top-100-list/

 

I know the Brewers scouting isn't based on this modeling as it has its flaws, but I find it interesting that some of his targets last off season were highly rated on this system and not other top prospect lists. Just throwing it out there in case he's a piece to a Braun trade.

[reillymcshane]

Wondering if Edwin Rios from the Dodgers would be a target for the Brewers even though he's in Double A and rated as the #26 prospect for the Dodgers as part of a return for Braun. I realize he's not too far ahead of our other younger guys in Erceg or Gatewood.

 

Only reason I brought up his name is that I was looking through the Fangraphs KATOH rankings from 1/29/16 and noticed Stearns traded for a number of highly rated players last winter from this modeling system, Ramon Flores #24, Jacob Nottingham #29, Isan Diaz #69.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-list-now-incorporating-multiple-years/

 

Rios doesn't show up on that list, but he's the #2 ranked 3B from their 7/25/16 rankings at #20, one spot ahead of Orlando Arcia. Ryan Cordell showed up at #78, Phil Bickford at #104(Brinson and Cordell were the only Rangers on the list outside of Gallo, Bickford was the only Giant)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved-katoh-top-100-list/

 

I know the Brewers scouting isn't based on this modeling as it has its flaws, but I find it interesting that some of his targets last off season were highly rated on this system and not other top prospect lists. Just throwing it out there in case he's a piece to a Braun trade.

MLB Pipeline notes on Rios:

 

He has the arm strength for the hot corner, but he lacks quickness and range and has been error-prone early in his pro career. He likely will become a full-time first baseman in the future.

 

Not saying he wouldn't do okay - just one perspective.

[MKE81]

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

I really don't understand why some people are down on Brinson or dislike him as a prospect. He has all the tools you could ask for. Good power, average, OBP, speed, and an elite glove. Nothing not to like. I think he'll have the kind of quality defense in CF that we hope to have at SS with Arcia, only with a better bat. No shame in Brinson as your top organizational prospect.

Trading away an elite defensive CF who almost everyone reports to have 30/30 potential for a lefty 3b Top 75 prospect is extremely illogical. He's a true 5 tool player. Especially when we have a lefty 3b in our system right now who everyone seems to be speaking very highly of. He's 2-3yrs away but that doesn't matter. There are options at 3b without giving up your top prospect just to fill a positional need. I also think people put too much emphasis on the offensive side. If Brinson is even an above average offensive player he's still going to be 20/20 AND play great defense with a strong arm. How many CF's like this exist in today's game? By all accounts his injuries last year affected his play. He caught fire and hit 350 last 9 games in AA then performed extremely well in AAA the final month.

 

You can plug 3b with joe schmo until Erceg is ready. Or, as I've said before on here along with some others, trade for a 3b who is in a similar position as Villar and Broxton. The original post mentioned Candelario. There's no way I'm trading Thornburg for him or even including him in any package. Thornburg, assuming the reliever market is just as hot as this past deadline, will bring back better returns than Jeffress/Smith. But, Candelario could be a player to target. Joining him as other potential prospects who are blocked or might be available for trade are Hunter Dozier (KC), Yandy Diaz (CLE), Colin Moran (HOU), Renato Nunez (OAK), Matt Chapman (OAK - will probably start in AAA though). We gave up Rogers for Broxton and Sneed for Villar - so Diaz, Moran, Nunez we should be giving up similar or less to acquire. Candelario, Chapman 94-96 overall and Dozier is 2x ex-mid 90s so it'll take more to acquire these guys. Some will need work defensively but they can be hold overs until Erceg comes through and develop some value to trade later.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=diaz--000yan

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=moran-000col

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=nunez-002ren

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=dozier000hun

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=chapma000mat

[reillymcshane]

After the Estrada-Lind trade I sincerely hope we no longer trade pitchers for position players

I don't understand this. Could you explain why?

 

It just seems really weird to arbitrarily want something like this. I mean, is it because Estrada did well after the trade? I guess I'd argue Lind did well too. And it's not like we would have gotten to keep Estrada. He was a free agent after the 2015 season. Of course, we could have resigned him at that time.

[MrTPlush]

After the Estrada-Lind trade I sincerely hope we no longer trade pitchers for position players

 

Except the Brewers didn't want Estrada. He had a horrible year, was pricey, and probably going to be non rendered if no trade came up as we didn't have a starting spot.

 

Also I don't get why every time we trade a player and they do good many just assume if we kept them they would have done just as good. Probably not how it would have worked out.

[MKE81]

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

I really don't understand why some people are down on Brinson or dislike him as a prospect. He has all the tools you could ask for. Good power, average, OBP, speed, and an elite glove. Nothing not to like. I think he'll have the kind of quality defense in CF that we hope to have at SS with Arcia, only with a better bat. No shame in Brinson as your top organizational prospect.

I think it's the mediocre numbers at AA last season that worry some. And it's not just the .237 batting average. It's the weak walk rate (5.0% at AA last year - even worse - 2.2% at AAA) and high K rate (about 20% last year, and higher for his career). His numbers are sort of all over the place in the minors - brilliant one year, mediocre the next.

 

Personally, I love the guy. It looks like a lot of his struggles related to some injuries that nagged him last year - but I love his talent.

 

My biggest worries are all the injuries he's had. He just never seems to stay 100% healthy.

I agree that people will point to his 2016 AA and be down on him/question him because that's what too many on here seem to do (ie Phillips, Nottingham and even Ray when he started). I don't think you can just look at his overall numbers annually because it doesn't paint an accurate picture. 19 in A ball and was 20/20 with 749 OPS (BA/OBP not impressive). Then he struggled when he's been 2.5-3yrs younger than age level but when he's been 1.5yrs young he's absolutely destroyed them (980+ OPS) including a 300/408/983 AFL last year. AA this year was the only exception for 1.5yr young but he was injured to start the year then missed plenty of time during the first half too.

[clancyphile]

Given that 2017/2018 are years we don't have much at stake, I'll bring up my oft-repeated proposal to move Braun back to third base until Erceg is ready for the majors.

 

Braun remains a Brewer, the team gets to look at more young outfielders... win-win.

[MrTPlush]

Given that 2017/2018 are years we don't have much at stake, I'll bring up my oft-repeated proposal to move Braun back to third base until Erceg is ready for the majors.

 

Braun remains a Brewer, the team gets to look at more young outfielders... win-win.

 

*inhales*....NO.

[And That]

Braun has literally said he will no longer play third base. Anywhere else. Not third base.

[adambr2]

I'd sooner try Villar at catcher.

[3and2Fastball]

After the Estrada-Lind trade I sincerely hope we no longer trade pitchers for position players

I don't understand this. Could you explain why?

.

 

I just really value pitching. If you have to trade a pitcher because he's nearing free agency, fine, but get pitching prospects for him. Players like Adam Lind are a dime a dozen. See: Chris Carter. And multiple others.

 

The only way to contend is to accumulate great pitching. Any pitching asset should either be kept or traded for more pitching. Just my opinion.

 

 

(*edited for spelling)

[clancyphile]

I'd sooner try Villar at catcher.

 

[sarcasm]Maybe Hernan Perez instead... [/sarcasm] j/k

 

Seriously, though... earlier today, I figured out why I resisted moving him from third after 2007 and why I wanted him back there. I just hated seeing in box scores that Gantner was out there every day at second base, wondering, "Why is he out there? What does he contribute?"

[LouisEly]

Trading away an elite defensive CF who almost everyone reports to have 30/30 potential for a lefty 3b Top 75 prospect is extremely illogical. He's a true 5 tool player.

Of course he has 30/30 potential. The question is, what is the probability of reaching that potential, and what do his other numbers besides home runs and stolen bases project to be? I remember 2.5 years ago when everyone was really excited when the Brewers drafted and signed Monte Harrison. He has 30/30 potential. What are the odds of him reaching that potential? Pretty low. I never said Brinson is not a great prospect. I just happen to think that he's more of a top-75-ish prospect than a top 25-ish, and here is why.

 

Brinson has never put up great numbers anywhere that weren't:

 

1) a small sample

B) in a hitter-friendly league (Cal, PCL)

 

2014 - .985 OPS over 43 games/186 PAs in low-A - small sample (.413 BABIP)

2015 - 1.044 OPS over 64 games/298 PAs in High A at High Desert - hitter friendly league/ballpark (.402 BABIP)

2016 - 1.005 OPS over 23 games/93 PAs in AAA at Colorado Springs - hitter friendly league/ballpark and a small sample (.455 BABIP)

 

Look at his BABIP in those leagues/seasons - that simply is not sustainable. (For reference, Tony Gwynn's career BABIP in the majors was .341.) Add in the low walk rate... and there is significant evidence to believe that he is not a top-25 prospect and that his composite AA numbers with the Rangers (.251/.293/.461, .754 OPS) might be closer to reality than what he did at AAA for the Brewers this year.

[MrTPlush]

I remember 2.5 years ago when everyone was really excited when the Brewers drafted and signed Monte Harrison. He has 30/30 potential.

 

his composite AA numbers with the Rangers (.251/.293/.461, .754 OPS) might be closer to reality than what he did at AAA for the Brewers this year.

 

Monte Harrison was straight out of high school...Lewis Brinson is a 22 year old with AAA experience. Lewis Brinson has also shown that potential in various stretches. Big difference.

 

You mean he won't be a .382 hitter with an OPS+ over 1.000? Would never have guessed. The half way between those stats is still great so I will take it.

 

The beautiful thing about prospects is everyone can have their own opinion. You may be alone on that, but that is your right.

[adambr2]

What would it take to pry 3B prospect Jeimer Candelario away from the Cubs? Considering their infield, he's pretty blocked and probably expendable. He's only 22, raked in AAA this year, has improved his D enough to stick at 3rd, and he's a switch hitter. He would definitely answer the OP question if they could put together the right deal to acquire him.

[nate82]

What would it take to pry 3B prospect Jeimer Candelario away from the Cubs? Considering their infield, he's pretty blocked and probably expendable. He's only 22, raked in AAA this year, has improved his D enough to stick at 3rd, and he's a switch hitter. He would definitely answer the OP question if they could put together the right deal to acquire him.

 

I don't believe the Cubs and the Brewers match up all that well. The only player that I could see the Cubs having a realistic interest in would be Thornburg. The Cubs bullpen is their biggest weakness with or without Chapman and Thornburg would address that issue. The problem here is that the Cubs don't really have pieces that the Brewers would be coveting for Thornburg. While Candelario would be a good starting point the Cubs would have to add in another prospect or two and I just don't see anyone in the Cubs organization that would be someone I would want in a Thornburg trade. Ian Happ is a no go for the Cubs they are not going to give up someone that valuable for a late inning relief pitcher though I could be wrong here.

[MrTPlush]

I mean they gave up Gleyber Torres for two months of Aroldis Chapman so it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities. However it don't think they would trade such a highly touted prospect within the division.

[BrewFan130]

We don't have to build the Brewers entire roster from prospects. I haven't looked at their payroll since 2015 but I suspect they have quite a bit of cash available to sign a FA. Of course it needs to be someone who makes sense to the future plans of the team. The Brewers could use a veteran that could lead the young players, a David Ross type of leader

[logan82]

Now they have payroll room. As the prospects mature they will cost more. Much like things went with our last round of talent. As the talent aged it got more expensive. $2m here, $3m there adds up fast.

[adambr2]

The only free agent 3rd baseman that I see out there of significance this offseason is Justin Turner. Obviously, he would really solidify 3rd. However he is in line for a significant payday, probably in the neighborhood of 15-20M a year over 4 or 5 years. I would not commit that kind of a deal to a free agent this early when we still don't really know yet where we are and how close we are to contention.

 

It's possible they will give Perez a shot as the everyday guy, but I think they prefer him as a super sub. If we don't end up acquiring a 3rd base prospect who can slide right in or a young flier like Villar, I would guess a low cost veteran stopgap like Aaron Hill is a strong possibility.

[clancyphile]

The only free agent 3rd baseman that I see out there of significance this offseason is Justin Turner. Obviously, he would really solidify 3rd. However he is in line for a significant payday, probably in the neighborhood of 15-20M a year over 4 or 5 years. I would not commit that kind of a deal to a free agent this early when we still don't really know yet where we are and how close we are to contention.

 

It's possible they will give Perez a shot as the everyday guy, but I think they prefer him as a super sub. If we don't end up acquiring a 3rd base prospect who can slide right in or a young flier like Villar, I would guess a low cost veteran stopgap like Aaron Hill is a strong possibility.

 

That sort of thing could be good, especially if he could be flipped for a lottery ticket prospect or two at the end of July.

 

I think a lot depends, though, on the market for Scooter Gennett. If Gennett can be dealt for a good return, debating the options at third base (Hernan Perez, Braun, Ryan Cordell, low-cost FA, prospect acquired) can happen.

 

If Gennett can't be dealt, then I'm content to stand pat with Villar at the hot corner - and see if he can get to the 20-60 mark this year.