The future at 3B

[CheezWizHed]

Erceg did hit 281/328/497/825 at age 21 (league average is 21.5). And he was 870+OPS for two months before a major Sept fade.

 

I certainly ignore Maryville/Helena stats for college players, but he certainly succeeded against guys at his level.

 

For that reason, I'm waiting to see what Ronnie Gideon can do at A-ball before getting too excited about him.

[monty57]

I don't think he will outright dominate to have that chance to speed through the minors. You watch him and you can see he still struggles from time to time. His stats were solid in Wisconsin, but that kind of line probably isn't going to make him get aggressively promoted as he moves up. We will know half way through next year for sure what kind of timeline he is on. If he does good enough to get promoted to AA he could get to the majors a lot faster...however an entire year at A+ probably means 2.5 years away at the least. I know that sounds like a "duh" analysis, but really it comes down to how he does against a true challenge in A+ ball.

 

I'm with you on this. I believe I earlier said "fast track," and that's probably not the right term. With prospects in general (not pointing the finger just at Erceg), I hope the Brewers push the guys a little. If a guy keeps producing, keep promoting him. If that means he's in the majors at an early age, that's a great "problem" to have. If he has some growing pains when he hits a certain level, then that's where he needs to spend more time.

 

It seems that they have been doing this recently, which is a nice change from where they were in the second half of Melvin's tenure, when guys didn't seem to hit the majors until they were in their mid-to-late 20's.

[LouisEly]

Carlos Gomez (and, small sample, so far Keon Broxton) and Jonathan Lucroy have had more productive careers despite not being nearly as heralded as "prospects".

I understand your overall point, but Gomez was quite the heralded prospect back in 2007-2008.

Gomez was ranked in the #50-60 range during those years. My comparison was Gomez to Delmon Young, in response to the posters criticism of Brinson for a Top 75 prospect, in that Gomez was "ranked" much lower than Young but ultimately turned out to be the better player (career 23.8 bWAR to 2.5 career bWAR for Young). Sorry if that wasn't clear.

[MrTPlush]

Carlos Gomez (and, small sample, so far Keon Broxton) and Jonathan Lucroy have had more productive careers despite not being nearly as heralded as "prospects".

I understand your overall point, but Gomez was quite the heralded prospect back in 2007-2008.

Gomez was ranked in the #50-60 range during those years. My comparison was Gomez to Delmon Young, in response to the posters criticism of Brinson for a Top 75 prospect, in that Gomez was "ranked" much lower than Young but ultimately turned out to be the better player (career 23.8 bWAR to 2.5 career bWAR for Young). Sorry if that wasn't clear.

 

The confusion came when you said you would trade Brinson for a Top 75 3B prospect, but failed to mention you don't like Brinson that much and think he is in that Top 75 range too.

 

That being said it's fun to look in retrospect at prospects, but in reality it isn't that easy to predict fate. The amount of GMs that would have traded Young for Gomez would have been 0/30 and the amount that would have traded an elite prospect for Lucroy would have been 0/30. What you want to do would be great if it was something one could predict, but one can't. You would look like a genius if you somehow did it, but if that's how you run your organization you won't have a job very long as your success rate would be rock bottom.

[billymac]

Anyone see Joey Gallo as a possible solution at third? Package surrounding Junior Guerra for Gallo?

 

I'm not advocating it, but Gallo put up very good OBP and Slugging numbers in AA and below. Something that could be fixed in his swing? He is still only 22 and Texas doesn't seem like they want anything to do with him.

[pacopete4]

Anyone see Joey Gallo as a possible solution at third? Package surrounding Junior Guerra for Gallo?

 

 

I feel as though if he was on the table for that, the Brewers would've done that deal.

[MrTPlush]

He is still only 22 and Texas doesn't seem like they want anything to do with him.

 

If that was the case they probably would have given us Gallo over Brinson like the Brewers wanted. I think the problem is the fact the Rangers have always wanted young controllable pitching for him and have yet to get that. No chance Guerra gets him.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Given that I have to think, after everything that happened, he won't be a Cub next year, might Tommy La Stella be a possibility? I guess I don't know enough about his defense to know if he'd be a liability at third, but the events of this year probably lowered his value and he seems to be somewhat useful with the bat even if he doesn't have your typical 3rd base power. Just looking at guys who played some third base this year but didn't have a starting spot waiting for them next season, and he was one of the names that caught my eye. He'd probably be cheaper trade-wise than Candelario.

[LouisEly]

Really like the La Stella idea. He hasn't been given much if any regular playing time which is tough on a young player. Career minor league OBP of .402 and OPS of .870, much better than (the admittedly younger) Candelario. Also walked more than he struck out in the minors. And a LHH to boot.

[pacopete4]

Why would the Cubs move La Stella?

[trwi7]

La Stella almost retired this summer because he was sent to the minors and wasn't with the Cubs. Yeah, he could've been bluffing but why take that risk that he actually does retire?

[jerichoholicninja]

La Stella almost retired this summer because he was sent to the minors and wasn't with the Cubs. Yeah, he could've been bluffing but why take that risk that he actually does retire?

 

That's what I was going to say. It wasn't about just not playing in the majors (according to him) it was that he only specifically want to play for the Chicago Cubs.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I completely missed that part with La Stella. I thought it was just a reaction to being sent down.

 

He just seemed like the best fit when you look at the list of blocked guys with third base experience. It sounds like the Royals and Mets might give Cuthbert and Rivera shots at 2nd base. Greg Garcia is unlikely to be starting for the Cardinals, but I don't think their roster crunch is as bad as the Cubs', so they'll probably keep him for his value as a utility infielder. Marte or Cowart from the Angels?

[And That]

I brought up T.J. Rivera and Rob Segedin in the Valbuena thread. Both guys have had good minor league production (Rivera astoundingly so), and play multiple positions besides third base, and are both turning 28 in the next few weeks.

 

Or to go a different direction, how about Jae-gyun Hwang? There haven't been enough older KBO players who have made the jump to MLB to be able to tell whether or not he'd be able to replicate his success in Korea here, but he is at least worth a look at. According to MLBTR, he'll be stateside shortly for workouts. And he's a FA, so he doesn't have to go through the posting process.

[CheezWizHed]

Given the success of Villar and Broxton at the MLB level last year (stealing a blocked player in another org for a low cost trade), I'd hope we continue that process this year with 1B, 3B and C in mind.

 

We are sort of prepared at C next year with possible long term catchers (Susac and Pina), but more wouldn't hurt. 1B is similar with Carter and Cooper, except a lower chance that either is a long term solution.

 

But 3B is certainly a great opportunity without any long term solutions save for lower levels of the minor league.

[Mudville9]

This might be the wrong thread for this, but do you think they might push Erseg to Carolina and have Gatewood back to 3b for Wisconsin? I was disappointed when they moved him to first. Not sure who would take over 1B in Wisconsin (Gideon?), but I would think they could just put a warm body that can hit there until someone takes the job.

[JohnBriggs12]

This might be the wrong thread for this, but do you think they might push Erseg to Carolina and have Gatewood back to 3b for Wisconsin? I was disappointed when they moved him to first. Not sure who would take over 1B in Wisconsin (Gideon?), but I would think they could just put a warm body that can hit there until someone takes the job.

 

I'd push Erceg to Carolina and if he hits there, I'd move him to Biloxi for the 2nd half. I certainly wouldn't block him with a guy (Gatewood) who's a year younger. My guess is that they move Gatewood around and at Carolina and let him settle at 3B when and if Erceg gets promoted. Gatewood and Ghelfi could share time at 1B at Carolina.

[MKE81]

This might be the wrong thread for this, but do you think they might push Erseg to Carolina and have Gatewood back to 3b for Wisconsin? I was disappointed when they moved him to first. Not sure who would take over 1B in Wisconsin (Gideon?), but I would think they could just put a warm body that can hit there until someone takes the job.

 

I'd push Erceg to Carolina and if he hits there, I'd move him to Biloxi for the 2nd half. I certainly wouldn't block him with a guy (Gatewood) who's a year younger. My guess is that they move Gatewood around and at Carolina and let him settle at 3B when and if Erceg gets promoted. Gatewood and Ghelfi could share time at 1B at Carolina.

I agree with the premiss of this. Erceg won't be blocked by anybody. I can definitely see Erceg starting in Carolina but if he stays in Appleton for the first month or so before a promotion I could see him at SS with Gatewood/Gideon at the corners as that doesn't disrupt either of them. When Erceg is promoted he slides to 3b in Carolina given Diaz will occupy SS. I just think Gideon has to start at 1b in Appleton - he was on pace for 45 doubles, 38HR, 92rbi in rookie ball (at age level) if given 500AB and he's only 1yr older than Gatewood. Gideon should outperform Gatewood in Appleton next year and I would actually package Gatewood in a trade if he can't figure out A ball by mid-season

[adambr2]

It's all just speculation, but from what I heard we preferred Brinson over Gallo and weren't really enamored with Gallo as a prospect at all.

[MrTPlush]

It's all just speculation, but from what I heard we preferred Brinson over Gallo and weren't really enamored with Gallo as a prospect at all.

 

I have heard the opposite and I have also heard the Rangers weren't going to trade us Gallo for Lucroy anyway. Regardless at the end of the day we aren't getting Gallo for Guerra. Not even remotely close to being a fair trade.

[CheezWizHed]

When Erceg is promoted he slides to 3b in Carolina given Diaz will occupy SS.

 

I don't think Diaz at SS is a given. They moved him to 2B this year without anyone special (Luis Aviles) playing SS instead.

 

I can't imagine what Erceg has left to prove at A-ball. Start him at Carolina, if he continues to hit, send him to Biloxi.

[MadThinker88]

If you want to see Erceg stay at SS for a little while longer, leave him in High A to start the season.

Reward him with move to High A Carolina if (when) his play warrants it.

 

No need to rush or be over aggressive with him.

[MrTPlush]

Lucas Erceg is destined for Carolina. I'd be quite shocked if he isn't sent there right at the start of the season.

[MKE81]

Erceg played 42 games in A - over his final 38 he slashed 255/304/767. So, yeah, he still has things to work on. Like I said, I can see him starting in Carolina but can also see him spending a month+ in A again before the promotion. It happens all the time with good prospects, they split seasons at different levels. Additionally, Diaz wasn't 100% shifted to 2b last year. He will become a 2b long-term hence the beginning of a transition but he will split time between SS/2b like he's done and is currently doing in AFL. Regardless, it doesn't take away from the point of Erceg not playing SS in A+. He potentially could though at A given he's spent time there at instructionals as it would allow him, Gatewood, Gideon to be in the lineup every day.

 

If I recall correctly, it appeared as though the Rangers were trying to push Gallo on us. Given the types of players Stearns acquires it doesn't make sense for him to want Gallo over Brinson. Either way, there's absolutely no way Guerro brings back Gallo (Top 15). Getting a Top 100 for him I'd drown in tears of happiness.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I know the stats won't support it, but I wouldn't be surprised if both Erceg and Gatewood start in Carolina next year (starting infield of Gatewood, Diaz, Rijo and Erceg), especially now that they are in a more neutral A+ environment. If he performs well in the spring, I could see them moving Gatewood up and hoping a promotion helps spark something like the midseason one did for Coulter last year. He can shift back to third later in the season if Erceg performs well enough to get moved up to Biloxi.