The future at 3B

[billymac]

We have an upper level organizational black hole at 3B. Other than Hernan Perez, who was labeled as a super utility, we don't really have too much to turn to at the MLB level. Yadiel Rivera and Cecchini are the only other 3B listed on the 40 man roster and Yadiel falls into the same category as Perez. Villar's likely position of the future will be 2B. Not sure if Cecchini would be the answer there.

 

Down in the minors, I personally am high on Lucas Erceg. He has a solid left handed bat and seems to be holding his own on defense with a solid arm, even playing some SS recently. Problem his is only in A ball and still 2+ years away from the big league club. Also in the lower levels there is Gilbert Lara, in Rookie Ball still years away, Chad McClanahan in the same boat and Jacob Gatewood who is in A ball himself and started a transition to 1B.

 

One local writer suggested trading for Jeimer Candelario from the Cubs which I would absolutely love. He is a switch hitter who put up a 1.052 OPS over his first 25 games in AAA. He is also blocked by Kris Bryant and Rizzo so there is no room for him in the near future for the Cubs. He is rated the #4 overall 3B on the MLB Pipeline and 99 overall. I am not sure if the Cubs would be willing to deal him to a division rival or what it would take to get him. Thornburg in a package? He could conceivably be brought up next year.

 

Other than Candelario, there doesn't seem to be alot of depth at 3B for stars waiting to join the big leagues. Devers, Senzel, Guerror Jr(still many years away), Hayes, Andujar, Dozier and Lowe(still many years away) are likely off limits as there are no big names ahead of them in the majors which leaves Matt Chapman from the A's available if they decide Ryon Healy is their 3B of the future and Ryan McMahon who is blocked by Arenado in Colorado. Chapman has big power but big swing and miss and McMahon struggled this year including too many errors to seem reliable at the hot corner. Renato Nunez from the A's falls into the same category as Chapman with alot of power and swing and miss with less defense.

 

At the MLB level in the near term, these are the free agent 3B's:

Yunel Escobar(34)

Aaron Hill(35)

Ruben Tejada(27)

Justin Turner(32)

Luis Valbuena(31)

 

Thoughts on direction the Brewers should go for the next couple years at 3B?

[Oldcity]

That trade with the Cubs sounds good to me, but that's only one option out of many they'll have. I expect this off-season that Gennett will be dealt, Villar will move over to second, and Perez will be the regular third baseman. That's likely just a stopgap solution.

 

I think everyone is pretty excited about Erceg, but like you said, he's a ways away from the big leagues yet, and that's assuming things continue going well for him.

 

The other thing is that the Brewers don't need to have a great prospect or two for every position on the field. A couple things can happen: one of the shortstops they're collecting could slide over to third at some point. We are seeing this trend with a lot of teams in the last couple seasons. The Brewers even did it with Villar this year. The other thing is the Brewers could simple fill the 3B void in free agency. It's maybe not ideal, but it could be an answer.

[JohnBriggs12]

Erceg just might be good enough to rise quickly through the minors and be in Milwaukee in 2019. He'll likely start 2017 in High A and could end up in Biloxi by end of 2017. If it's Perez or a combination of Villar and Perez at 3B, they should be able to cover the position adequately the next couple seasons.

 

An infield of Erceg, Arcia, Diaz and as yet to be named 1B, is something to look forward to.

[monty57]

Erceg just might be good enough to rise quickly through the minors and be in Milwaukee in 2019. He'll likely start 2017 in High A and could end up in Biloxi by end of 2017. If it's Perez or a combination of Villar and Perez at 3B, they should be able to cover the position adequately the next couple seasons.

 

An infield of Erceg, Arcia, Diaz and as yet to be named 1B, is something to look forward to.

 

I agree. He was drafted out of college, so he's already 21. No reason not to try to fast-track him if he continues to produce.

 

He's a year younger than Brinson and Hader, several months older than Ortiz and Bickford, and only nine months younger than Arcia. If a player produces, keep advancing him. Let his production tell you when he needs more time at a level.

[pacopete4]

Just start Erceg at AA next season and let the kid smack around that pitching for an entire year.

[LouisEly]

I'm hoping the Brewers can turn some of their surplus OF - perhaps along with a 2nd tier pitcher (not named Hader/Woodruff/Ortiz/Bickford - think along the lines of M. Diaz, D. Williams, J. Perrin, etc.) - into an upper level 3B prospect.

 

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

One local writer suggested trading for Jeimer Candelario from the Cubs

 

One of the Cubs glaring weaknesses is throwing out base stealers, although part of that is definitely on the pitchers. I wonder how much value Maldonado would have to them with Ross set to turn 40. Maybe add in a lower level pitcher, but other than a half season in Iowa Candelario's been nothing special in the minors - he has a career OPS of .776. He won't command that high of a return.

 

Looking at some borderline 40-man decisions (M. Diaz, Ventura, Coulter, Reed, T. Taylor), perhaps they can move one or two of them for a 3B they know they definitely want to protect or who doesn't have to be protected until next year.

[clancyphile]

Erceg just might be good enough to rise quickly through the minors and be in Milwaukee in 2019. He'll likely start 2017 in High A and could end up in Biloxi by end of 2017. If it's Perez or a combination of Villar and Perez at 3B, they should be able to cover the position adequately the next couple seasons.

 

An infield of Erceg, Arcia, Diaz and as yet to be named 1B, is something to look forward to.

 

I'm liking Ronnie Gideon as the 1B of the future. Big power bat.

[MrTPlush]

I like Erceg as much as anyone, but the guy destroyed some rookie ball talent and then held his own against some A-ball pitchers. Tell me when he actually hits well against someone who can actually challenge him. He is a college bat that smacked around a bunch of guys inferior to him. I liked what I saw from him last year, but I don't think he is a fast riser. Id still think he is 2.5 years out minimum.

[MrTPlush]

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

So you would trade a Top 15 prospect who is possibly one of our very very few star potential players for a #50-#75 prospect just because they are at a position of need? Despite such player probably being even less of a sure thing and possess a ceiling half that of Brinson? I also don't get the attention to LHH. We have plenty of those coming through the ranks I don't think we need to downgrade to find one.

 

If we made such a trade my heartbeat may quite frankly stop.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Erceg as much as anyone, but the guy destroyed some rookie ball talent and then held his own against some A-ball pitchers. Tell me when he actually hits well against someone who can actually challenge him. He is a college bat that smacked around a bunch of guys inferior to him. I liked what I saw from him last year, but I don't think he is a fast riser. Id still think he is 2.5 years out minimum.

 

He went from bashing NAIA pitchers to bashing pros. The Pioneer League is mostly recently drafted college arms. It wasn't like he smacked around a bunch of 30 something round guys just out of high school.

[brewmann04]

I be scared to trade any pitching at this point

[Austin Tatious]

1. No way would I trade Brinson. He's not "can't miss" in the way a Braun was, but I like the tools too much. I'm willing to ride that out.

 

2. Candelario is not nearly enough for Thorny. If there is a trade there, I think the Crew give up less. I have no doubt the Cubs would be ecstatic to have Thorny, though. They could use him. You watch the playoffs and you see the value Thorny will have.

 

3. I'm more worried about 1b and C than I am with 3b. Erceg has a nice hit tool and good athleticism and an excellent frame. I'm really hopeful here. We have a number of C prospects but there isn't much evidence yet to go on that you will get a good or above average MLB catcher out of the bunch.

 

4. Let's hope Gideon can sort of be a Woodruff version of a 1b. By that I mean, a talented kid who for a variety of reasons didn't get showcased at a major college program. But there is a long way to go before we can start counting chickens with him.

 

5. There was a recent negative scouting report on Lara. We will see in time whether it's real or baloney. If I recall correctly, there were disparaging comments like heavy legged, slow twitch, etc. Let's just say I am skeptical as to the accuracy of the report. A great fallacy in scouting is the black and white method. That assessment lacked nuance and sophistication. In the end, the writer may end up being right. But, the way it was presented, it's fair to question its merits. As for Lara's performance, after a slow start at rookie ball this year, he came on nicely down the stretch. There were obviously professional scouts who liked his skills. He's still very young.

[pacopete4]

I like Erceg as much as anyone, but the guy destroyed some rookie ball talent and then held his own against some A-ball pitchers. Tell me when he actually hits well against someone who can actually challenge him. He is a college bat that smacked around a bunch of guys inferior to him. I liked what I saw from him last year, but I don't think he is a fast riser. Id still think he is 2.5 years out minimum.

 

 

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think this?

[FVBrewerFan]

Nothing says the entire 25 needs to come from their system. Erceg should be ready for 2019. If he flames out, sign a FA in a couple years. Doesn't matter who plays 3b next yr anyhow, so one yr at a time. Ditto for catcher.

[LouisEly]

I like Brinson, but I'm not entirely sold on him and if there was a 3B prospect that was a top-75 overall prospect available - especially LHH - I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

 

So you would trade a Top 15 prospect who is possibly one of our very very few star potential players for a #50-#75 prospect just because they are at a position of need? Despite such player probably being even less of a sure thing and possess a ceiling half that of Brinson? I also don't get the attention to LHH. We have plenty of those coming through the ranks I don't think we need to downgrade to find one.

 

If we made such a trade my heartbeat may quite frankly stop.

No,

 

1) Just because MLB.com, some other service, or you have Brinson as a Top 15 prospect doesn't mean that he is one. Lots of All-Stars were never Top 100 prospects, lots of Top 50 prospects never became All-Stars. Byron Buxton was the #1 prospect across the board in 2014 but has found the majors so far to be tough sledding, Matt Wieters was the #1 prospect across the board in 2009, and Delmon Young was top-3 for four years in a row; however, Carlos Gomez (and, small sample, so far Keon Broxton) and Jonathan Lucroy have had more productive careers despite not being nearly as heralded as "prospects". Anyone who takes BA, MLB, or BP rankings as gospel is a fool. No one had Woodruff on their list last year despite scouting reports of him regularly working upper 90's; this year he is hitting 98 late in games and led all of MiLB in strikeouts, and should be on everyone's list. (If someone doesn't think that's TOR potential, then I don't know what is.)

 

B) I think Brinson's performance at AAA was a bit of a small sample error because a walk rate of 2.1% does not suggest that success is sustainable; the larger sample - injured or not - suggests the AAA performance was a bit of an outlier (walk rate <5% on the season). In 2015 his great performance was in the Cal League, a notorious hitters league (see: reaction to potential Brewers A+ team in Cal League a few months ago), and his great performance in 2016 was in the PCL. I think he is a Top 100 prospect, but not a Top 15 prospect, thus why I suggested a swap for a Top 75 prospect - because that's what I think he is.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think this year's third baseman will probably be a Villar/Broxton/Liriano/Nieuwenhuis-type low-profile trade or waiver claim, but if they strike out there, on paper it seems as if Luis Valbuena would make about as much sense for the Brewers as any free agent this year if the price is right.

 

That's an exceptionally low bar, though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Nothing wrong with bringing Aaron Hill back for $1-2 million. He didn't hit in Boston but it was a small sample and his BABIP was just .236 there. He showed with regular playing time he could be productive.

 

If the Phillies non-tender Cody Asche, I'd take a flyer on him as buy low guy.

[And That]

Carlos Gomez (and, small sample, so far Keon Broxton) and Jonathan Lucroy have had more productive careers despite not being nearly as heralded as "prospects".

I understand your overall point, but Gomez was quite the heralded prospect back in 2007-2008.

 

Anyone who takes BA, MLB, or BP rankings as gospel is a fool.

The flipside being, if anyone dismisses those rankings out of hand because they don't agree, is a fool. The people who put together those rankings are smart folks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Carlos Gomez (and, small sample, so far Keon Broxton) and Jonathan Lucroy have had more productive careers despite not being nearly as heralded as "prospects".

I understand your overall point, but Gomez was quite the heralded prospect back in 2007-2008.

 

Anyone who takes BA, MLB, or BP rankings as gospel is a fool.

The flipside being, if anyone dismisses those rankings out of hand because they don't agree, is a fool. The people who put together those rankings are smart folks.

 

They're smart but there is very little separation between the guys ranked 50-100 and the next 50. They also tend to over-rank the guys who flash big power early on as pros and often times those guys end up being more vulnerable to advanced pitching than guys who make contact and develop power as they mature.

[ZBTMP]

Not to derail the topic with a dream, Loudres Gourriel is not subject to international restrictions starting tomorrow. While alot of recent Cuban imports have underperformed some lofty expectations, it might make alot of sense for the Brewers to place a competitive bid in this situation.

[monty57]

I like Erceg as much as anyone, but the guy destroyed some rookie ball talent and then held his own against some A-ball pitchers. Tell me when he actually hits well against someone who can actually challenge him. He is a college bat that smacked around a bunch of guys inferior to him. I liked what I saw from him last year, but I don't think he is a fast riser. Id still think he is 2.5 years out minimum.

 

I agree that he has a lot to prove, but he can't "hit well against someone who can actually challenge him" until the Brewers put him at a level full of guys who can actually challenge him. They'd probably like to see him face some AA pitching this year, so hopefully if he starts in high-A, he'll show enough to get bumped up to AA. From there, depending on performance, any prospect is a phone call away from Milwaukee.

 

Like anyone in the low minors, he's still a long shot for the majors. But he's our best 3B option in the minors, so it will be interesting to see how he develops.

[pacopete4]

Nothing wrong with bringing Aaron Hill back for $1-2 million. He didn't hit in Boston but it was a small sample and his BABIP was just .236 there. He showed with regular playing time he could be productive.

 

If the Phillies non-tender Cody Asche, I'd take a flyer on him as buy low guy.

 

 

Two very different situations with these players. One at the tail end of his career and the other would be trying to get one actually starting in the MLB. It would be nice to get Asche because of his age and he does provide a little left handedness to our team but he hasn't done much in his playing time so far. Hill might be the safer of the two for next season but is that really what next season is about? I lean towards giving Asche an opportunity even though he rarely played 3B as of late.

[MrTPlush]

I like Erceg as much as anyone, but the guy destroyed some rookie ball talent and then held his own against some A-ball pitchers. Tell me when he actually hits well against someone who can actually challenge him. He is a college bat that smacked around a bunch of guys inferior to him. I liked what I saw from him last year, but I don't think he is a fast riser. Id still think he is 2.5 years out minimum.

 

I agree that he has a lot to prove, but he can't "hit well against someone who can actually challenge him" until the Brewers put him at a level full of guys who can actually challenge him.

 

Well yah...I wasn't claiming he should be sent back to A-ball or anything.

[MrTPlush]

I like Erceg as much as anyone, but the guy destroyed some rookie ball talent and then held his own against some A-ball pitchers. Tell me when he actually hits well against someone who can actually challenge him. He is a college bat that smacked around a bunch of guys inferior to him. I liked what I saw from him last year, but I don't think he is a fast riser. Id still think he is 2.5 years out minimum.

 

 

Just out of curiosity, what makes you think this?

 

I don't think he will outright dominate to have that chance to speed through the minors. You watch him and you can see he still struggles from time to time. His stats were solid in Wisconsin, but that kind of line probably isn't going to make him get aggressively promoted as he moves up. We will know half way through next year for sure what kind of timeline he is on. If he does good enough to get promoted to AA he could get to the majors a lot faster...however an entire year at A+ probably means 2.5 years away at the least. I know that sounds like a "duh" analysis, but really it comes down to how he does against a true challenge in A+ ball.

[JohnBriggs12]

Nothing wrong with bringing Aaron Hill back for $1-2 million. He didn't hit in Boston but it was a small sample and his BABIP was just .236 there. He showed with regular playing time he could be productive.

 

If the Phillies non-tender Cody Asche, I'd take a flyer on him as buy low guy.

 

 

Two very different situations with these players. One at the tail end of his career and the other would be trying to get one actually starting in the MLB. It would be nice to get Asche because of his age and he does provide a little left handedness to our team but he hasn't done much in his playing time so far. Hill might be the safer of the two for next season but is that really what next season is about? I lean towards giving Asche an opportunity even though he rarely played 3B as of late.

 

Ideally, you try to get Asche on a minor league deal and see if he can win a spot, and also take the proven vet Hill if indeed Gennett is traded. Neither would preclude Perez ending up as the everyday 3B but it would give them options.