Giants fire 1B and 3B coaches...

[Thurston Fluff]

So what you are saying is they fired RRR, "Retired" Doug Melvin, turned over the majority of the 40 man roster and changed several coaches last season but keep the third base coach/philosophy this year because Running Ron started it? No offense but that is pretty far fetched.

 

I'm not sure why you're taking offense and having such an attitude about the topic. [sarcasm]You're probably Eddy trying to defend himself against those meanies on the internets.[/sarcasm]

 

When you make bad arguments and innuendo you should expect to be called out on it. When you say you hope Stearns uses actual evidence and not just an old maxim about make the defense work in his decision that is innuendo that contradicts everything we know of Stearns.

When I pointed that out you resorted to a claim that it was Running Ron that started it. To suggest what RRR did at one time has some sort of impact on what Stearns and Counsell do now is pretty far fetched. That is the bad argument part.

[MrTPlush]

For me, if the average is 16-19 and we're 8+ runs more than that I personally could care less.

 

You should care. It is a season of 162 games that typically comes down to less than 3 games apart in the standings. "Who cares" turns into just missing the postseason real quick. We can't settle for anything less than perfection or try getting as close to it as we can. If ditching Ed Sedar means 8 extra runs we better be figuring out how to do it.

[jerichoholicninja]

So what you are saying is they fired RRR, "Retired" Doug Melvin, turned over the majority of the 40 man roster and changed several coaches last season but keep the third base coach/philosophy this year because Running Ron started it? No offense but that is pretty far fetched.

 

I'm not sure why you're taking offense and having such an attitude about the topic. [sarcasm]You're probably Eddy trying to defend himself against those meanies on the internets.[/sarcasm]

 

When you make bad arguments and innuendo you should expect to be called out on it. When you say you hope Stearns uses actual evidence and not just an old maxim about make the defense work in his decision that is innuendo that contradicts everything we know of Stearns.

When I pointed that out you resorted to a claim that it was Running Ron that started it. To suggest what RRR did at one time has some sort of impact on what Stearns and Counsell do now is pretty far fetched. That is the bad argument part.

 

Good lord the point was so freaking obvious I have no idea what you're even talking about. Sedar has been coaching 3B since Ron was hired, maybe he even was under Macha I don't remember. Ron brought aggressive baserunning and the results have been mixed at best. It's been a constant point of contention here at BF.net. It changed very little when Craig took over last year and didn't change this year. So Stearns didn't bring it with him but as best we can tell he hasn't stopped it either. If that's because he supports it we don't know. If he does I hope (and I'm sure he would) he has some data to back it up because all we fans see is stupid baserunning making outs.

[Oxy]

Again, those stats are meaningless in a vacuum. If a runner starts at second and gets thrown out at home by 10 feet after a single hit to the left of Khris Davis in the top of the 11th in a 6-6 game with two outs, Tyler Thornburg on deck (after only pitching 1/3 of an inning) and Aroldis Chapman on the mound and no bench bats left, I'd still consider that a good risk to take.

 

Of course, that is an extreme example, but for something that only happens around 20 times a year it wouldn't be that surprising to find out that they were good risks to take.

 

 

We still have no idea how many runs were scored because risks were taken--and even further, how many games were won because that specific risk was taken. Rickey Henderson led the league in being caught stealing 5 times.

 

 

EDIT: I'm not necessarily saying that everybody is wrong here, I'm just saying that in this case using season long stats like this are meaningless, and that everybody is biased toward remembering the OUTS and not the times the relay throw was 10 feet up the line and our guy walked across the plate when a good throw would have had him out by a mile.

 

EDIT #2: Keep in mind that in order for the risk to be worth it with 2 outs, something like for every 5 guys thrown out by 10 feet, only ONCE does a throw have to be well offline where the runner scores (This varies greatly depending upon matchups)

[stoutdude04]

Of course people understand that there are times when the runner should try to take home, but the eye test says hes bad and there are numbers(possibly silly) that show there is something wrong. It may be time to call a spade a spade here.

[Baldkin]

The numbers don't show anything, without context: ie, video data, in this case.

 

And the idea that Sedar has cost the team runs is innuendo as well.

 

How many times have guys scored when they wouldn't have with a more conservative coaching philosophy? I don't know.

[And That]

The numbers don't show anything, without context: ie, video data, in this case.

 

And the idea that Sedar has cost the team runs is innuendo as well.

 

How many times have guys scored when they wouldn't have with a more conservative coaching philosophy? I don't know.

Yep.

 

It would be extraordinarily difficult to determine where Sedar compares to all of the other third base coaches in baseball. Not only would each individual wave around have to be examined on its own merits, you also have to consider the collateral impact of the wave around.

 

It's possible that the player would have been out by 20 feet, except that the relay throw was wildly inaccurate, and allowed the run to score.

 

It's possible that other runners advanced (if the out at home wasn't the third out) on the throw home, cancelling out some of the impact of the guy getting out at the plate. Also related to the above, a wildly inaccurate relay throw could allow other runners to advance as well as the run scoring.

 

It's possible that the player would have been safe at home 95% of the time, except that the relay throw was perfect.

 

It's possible the the umpires blew a call.

 

It's possible that Chris Davis was in left field instead of Khris Davis.

 

My gut feeling is that "our third base coach is terrible" is something that we say, and also something that fans of 29 other baseball clubs say. It could be that Sedar is terrible, but I don't think the data is there, or at least has been analyzed so precisely in a publicly documented manner, to make that determination. And I think the fact that the Brewers haven't replaced him backs that up.

[stoutdude04]

The numbers don't show anything, without context: ie, video data, in this case.

 

And the idea that Sedar has cost the team runs is innuendo as well.

 

How many times have guys scored when they wouldn't have with a more conservative coaching philosophy? I don't know.

 

I fully understand that, but when I see that we lead the league in outs at home AND my eyes tell me he is making poor decisions I make my own conclusion.

 

I just think back to how many times I thought wow, that was a great send as opposed to wow...that was an awful decision. Again, there aren't pure numbers to show one way or the other. Just my own conclusion.

[hurricanecrush]

On the first run that scored for the Cubs last night, the left fielder picked up the ball in medium left while the runner was touching 3rd. He was a dead duck... except the throw was at least 30 feet up the first base line. Was that a good decision or a bad decision to send him?

[monty57]

To go a step further...we were 25th in the league in runs scored with 671. So, we were 1st in the league with runners thrown out at home with far fewer opportunities than other teams in the league. Neat stuff.

 

I just wanted to re-post this, as I believe it is an important point. It's kind of like why SB% is important when determining if a guy is a good base stealer. If someone led the league in CS with far fewer attempts than everyone else, you should tell him to stop trying to steal. If you lead the league in runners thrown out at home with far fewer runners sent, then maybe you should not be the guy making that determination.

[MilwaukeesBest]

On the first run that scored for the Cubs last night, the left fielder picked up the ball in medium left while the runner was touching 3rd. He was a dead duck... except the throw was at least 30 feet up the first base line. Was that a good decision or a bad decision to send him?

 

Depends if you're a Monday Morning QB, like many that post on this very thread.

 

Seriously though.

[And That]

To go a step further...we were 25th in the league in runs scored with 671. So, we were 1st in the league with runners thrown out at home with far fewer opportunities than other teams in the league. Neat stuff.

 

I just wanted to re-post this, as I believe it is an important point.

That's interesting, but isn't it only one side of the point? It's like looking at caught stealing without looking at stolen bases as well. What is really, really difficult to determine is how many runs Sedar has added to the Brewers' output over the years. Clearly he's made some good choices mixed in with those bad choices. There's just not enough available data to determine the weight on both sides of the scale on this topic. Unfortunately.

 

And again, the Brewers haven't replaced him, and with Stearns/Arnold being extremely data-driven guys I assume they are satisfied that Sedar is having a net positive effect on the team.

[stoutdude04]

On the first run that scored for the Cubs last night, the left fielder picked up the ball in medium left while the runner was touching 3rd. He was a dead duck... except the throw was at least 30 feet up the first base line. Was that a good decision or a bad decision to send him?

 

I didn't see the play, so I can't say for a fact, but if he was in fact touching 3rd and the left fielder had the ball I think it was a bad decision imo. Slow pitch softball players can make that throw on line.

[MrTPlush]

On the first run that scored for the Cubs last night, the left fielder picked up the ball in medium left while the runner was touching 3rd. He was a dead duck... except the throw was at least 30 feet up the first base line. Was that a good decision or a bad decision to send him?

 

Bad decision. Why? Because even with the worst possible throw in that situation the runner was still out. It's a little less worse because there were two outs at least, but the chances of being safe there were heavily not in the Dodgers favor.

[stoutdude04]

On the first run that scored for the Cubs last night, the left fielder picked up the ball in medium left while the runner was touching 3rd. He was a dead duck... except the throw was at least 30 feet up the first base line. Was that a good decision or a bad decision to send him?

 

Bad decision. Why? Because even with the worst possible throw in that situation the runner was still out. It's a little less worse because there were two outs at least, but the chances of being safe there were heavily not in the Dodgers favor.

 

You may be thinking of the Dodgers play and not the Cubs play that he was referring to. I think he is talking about the play where Toles fired it 20 feet up the line.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, the two plays at the plate from last night perfectly illustrate how much grey area there is in reagrds to send him/hold him decisions & the numbers subsequently produced by those decisions.

 

The play where Gonzalez was called out was probably a good send. Sure he was ruled out but it was extremely close and could have gone either way. If the throw is just that much farther up the line he is pretty easily safe.

 

The play where Toles completely airmailed the throw was probably a bad send. Like hurricanecrush said, the runner was right at third as Toles was fielding the ball & even a standard Khris Davis throw probably gets him at home.

 

So in the two instances from last night the "good send" resulted in an out and the "bad send" resulted in a run scored.

[stoutdude04]

 

The play where Toles completely airmailed the throw was probably a bad send. Like hurricanecrush said, the runner was right at third as Toles was fielding the ball & even a standard Khris Davis throw probably gets him at home.

 

 

You mean hits the cut and he throws it home?

[jerichoholicninja]

Pirates fired their 3B coach after making the second most outs in the league at third base. Although I don't think you can put a whole lot of that on the 3B coach.

[TURBO]

Pirates fired their 3B coach after making the second most outs in the league at third base. Although I don't think you can put a whole lot of that on the 3B coach.

 

You can if he is the one sending the runners... That is their job.

[jerichoholicninja]

Pirates fired their 3B coach after making the second most outs in the league at third base. Although I don't think you can put a whole lot of that on the 3B coach.

 

You can if he is the one sending the runners... That is their job.

 

Going from second to third is generally the runners own choice.

[TURBO]

Pirates fired their 3B coach after making the second most outs in the league at third base. Although I don't think you can put a whole lot of that on the 3B coach.

 

You can if he is the one sending the runners... That is their job.

 

Going from second to third is generally the runners own choice.

 

True, but not in all cases... Anything hit on the right side the runner should be looking to the 3B coach...

[Polish Falcons]

Pirates fired their 3B coach after making the second most outs in the league at third base. Although I don't think you can put a whole lot of that on the 3B coach.

 

 

Where do you find these stats showing which team makes the most outs at 3rd base (or home plate for that matter)? And how to the Brewers rate? I am curious if these stats support my eye test, and many others, which tells me Sedar is terrible for the 3b coaching job.

[jerichoholicninja]

Pirates fired their 3B coach after making the second most outs in the league at third base. Although I don't think you can put a whole lot of that on the 3B coach.

 

 

Where do you find these stats showing which team makes the most outs at 3rd base (or home plate for that matter)? And how to the Brewers rate? I am curious if these stats support my eye test, and many others, which tells me Sedar is terrible for the 3b coaching job.

 

That particular stat was quoted in the MLB Trade Rumors article. Fangraphs or Baseball Reference would be my guess.