Arbitration projections per MLBTR

[trwi7]

If we drop from .903 OPS Braun to .750 OPS Puig, and replace .821 OPS Carter with someone who doesn't pan out, we could really quickly have a bad offense.

 

I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make here. We shouldn't be going anywhere near $8 million for a guy who could only get $2.5 million last offseason because if we don't and we trade this guy and replace him with that guy, our offense could be really bad when it was already really bad this year.

 

That's not a reason to pay the guy.

 

And if he turns us down because we non-tender him to save money, who cares? He has at best moderate trade value when he's producing at his highest level when he's on a cheap contract. If his production slips even a little bit and we pay him $5+ million, his trade value is basically none.

 

I'd honestly do what the Astros did with him last year. Try to find a taker on the trade market and if we can't, non-tender him.

[And That]

Carter made $3 million in 2016, just to be clear. His base salary was $2.5 million but he reached all his performance bonuses, which were based on plate appearances. He got an extra $500k for that.

[AJOHNSON104]

Since this thread has really turned into a discussion of 1B and Carter, my 2 cents. I think the smart option is to try to do a 2 year deal (2/12ish). Build in performance bonuses like this year. If they can't work it out, not sure I'd do the 1 year for more than 5 mil. If it doesn't work out start looking at options. A left handed 1B wouldn't be terrible. Adam Lind is getting old with his bad back, but could be had cheaper on a 1 year deal. Perez could platoon against lefties and try to develop an option for 2018. Face it - many of us would have been happy with Jason Rodgers last year, so options can be found.

[MrTPlush]

Once a player becomes a free agent, he gains the right to turn a team down. If the Brewers non-tender him solely to save money, then he could rightly be upset which would hurt the Brewers' chance of getting him to re-sign.

 

That is true he could turn us down for declining to overpay him. However for a guy who has made $7.5mil in his career he would be pretty dumb not taking the best offer. It would also be dumb as I doubt he finds a better ballpark to hit in which would make his chances of another decent payday in 2018 much more unlikely than if he were to re-up with the Brewers where he had a nice year. I would put the chances of him declining a deal with us(if it was the highest offer) at less than 1%.

[And That]

I put the link in the lowest payroll thread as well, but I have the Brewers at about $66 million in salary for next season.

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B86F-cCNo5RxdzlTdkxzbk9GVVE/view

[adambr2]

I put the link in the lowest payroll thread as well, but I have the Brewers at about $66 million in salary for next season.

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B86F-cCNo5RxdzlTdkxzbk9GVVE/view

 

I noticed you have Broxton (and others, but Broxton is the biggest name) as a Super 2, is that the case? I thought Broxton was pretty firmly a 0-3 through 2019 based on his service time last year.

[And That]

Broxton had 14 days of service going into the season, and I have him at about 124 days of service this year, give or take a few days. Anything above 2.130-2.135 days of service usually is a decent bet for Super 2. That also assumes he's not demoted in the next two years.

[JosephC]

An extra million paid to him is a million gone, but the owners would lose around half of that in taxes anyhow, so it's not as big a hit as it would be if they were in a different situation.

 

Does paying Chris Carter on extra $2-$3mil help sell tickets or make fans happier? This isn't about dumping him or tendering him a contract. This is about tendering him a contract that could be $8mil or non tendering him and resigning him for less, say $5.5mil.

 

I am guessing the only reason non tendering him isn't a no brainer is the fact on the open market some team could offer him a two year deal. Through arbitration talks they could probably get him for $7mil while a strong market could hypothetically force the Brewers to pay 2/$10mil(just a random number). Maybe they don't want him another two years as they are planning to move an OFer to 1B for 2018(another hypothetical situation).

 

That's kind of how I see it. I'm for non-tendering him and offering him a 1 year, 5.5 million dollar deal and if he wants to test free agency then that's his right. If I'm Carter's agent, the 5.5 million dollar figure wouldn't bother me but I would reject the Brewer's offer and attempt to find a 2 year deal from a different team. I don't think the agent would expect to get 8 million per season from anybody but a 2 year deal in the 10-11 million dollar range is a reasonable possibility. If he gets a 2 year offer from a different team then his time as a Brewer is done, but if no team is willing to go 2 seasons then there is a decent chance he would be back in Milwaukee. I also don't think it would be unreasonable for the Brewers to do 2 years on him because as of right now he's not blocking any first baseman prospect. I don't have any argument with people who think Santana or another outfielder could end up being that first baseman, but Stearns might not see it that way and if he thinks all those guys should stay in the outfield then giving Carter a 2-year deal would be a reasonable move. Personally I would stick with one year because there are still a couple trade chips left, and maybe moving Braun will bring back an advanced first baseman prospect that may fit into the lineup in 2018. So I would rather just see them go one year with Carter...will be interesting to see how Stearns handles this one.

[jerichoholicninja]

I understand not wanting to pay a one trick pony in another lost season but this franchise has had such ineptitude at 1B for awhile now it's nice to see a guy who does anything well play there. Enough converted catchers and short stops.

[monty57]

I understand not wanting to pay a one trick pony in another lost season but this franchise has had such ineptitude at 1B for awhile now it's nice to see a guy who does anything well play there. Enough converted catchers and short stops.

 

That's a big reason why I want him back. I've probably seemed overly stoic in defense of Carter in my posts earlier in the thread, but much of that is because I don't think he'll get anywhere near $8M. The guys I looked at who seem to be good comps have me believing he should be closer to $5M if he goes to arby. At around that price, I think they should do the deal.

 

The Brewers are still in the rebuild stage, but after a promising year this year (better than most expected), I'd hate to see the Brewers take a big step back next year. If Carter's "true open market value" is something like $4M, and we pay him $5-6M, I'm fine with that, and I'm kind of a tightwad when it comes to money. :-)

 

We have a decent option at first base. If we dump him for nothing, then Stearns needs to either stand pat with someone like Pinto, which could turn out really bad, or he needs to spend some of our remaining resources on an upgrade (i.e. make sure to include a first baseman in a trade). Unless he has someone in mind, and a deal gets done quickly, I think the safe bet is to just re-sign Carter for a season.

 

Hopefully during that season, our OF prospects do well enough that moving Santana to first base can happen, and that would give us stronger ground to stand on next offseason when deciding what to do with Carter (if he isn't traded at the deadline).

 

All that said, the guys who put together the projections listed in the opening post are smart people. If the Brewers realistically think that Carter would win an arby case at $8M+, then it makes the decision a lot tougher. I just hope the final decision isn't "he's our best option but we don't want to pay him that much, so we'll dump him and go with Pinto."

 

I think the Brewers want to get better in 2017, not significantly worse, and I think fans would revolt if we dump a controllable reigning HR champ and replace him with a "no name" just to save money when the team has the lowest payroll in the league. If so, that could cost them far more than what they'd pay for Carter over the "no name."

[Bombers]

I agree with where Monty57 is at. I would bring Carter back. I would have loved an OPS of .821 in 2014. He also sported an OBP that was better than Scooter's. Maybe the Brewers coach's found something in Spring training last year that helped him improve his power stroke. Maybe they feel he can improve again. The 3 highest SLG's on the team last year were Braun, Carter, Lucroy. 2 of those might be gone.

His minor league stats were .283 / .378 / .535 / .913.

His Major league stats have been .218 / .314 / .463 / .777.

But this last year he was .222 / .321 / .499 / .821

 

This past year saw his SLG and OPS move towards his minor league numbers. Maybe the Brewers think they can improve his batting average and get him to .250, who knows. My guess is he will be back and I think he should be back.

[CheezWizHed]

Just for comparison sake, I took the average performance of all 1B that (with the qualified number of ABs) and came up with: 270/353/472/825.

- NOTE: only 19 1Bs had that many ABs. So if we included 1B production for the other 11 teams, I'd assume this number would decrease.

 

So obviously, Carter's AVE and OBP are lower than average, but his OBP is really still in the acceptable range. And his OPS is pretty much at the average. His defense is in the bottom third of MLB 1B.

 

A few things to remember about the $8M number:

- Salaries will go up every year and we always underestimate how much people will sign for.

- The Brewers have rarely gone to arbitration in the past, but settled on an amount prior to arbitration. So its not like we have to accept $8M or cut him. We can still negotiate in the $5-7M range. Possibly a 2yr deal for $10-12M would help keep him out of arby.

 

Seeing that we don't have any viable 1B in the system (unless Braun or Santana are moved) and there aren't any great 1B in FA that we will want to sign, I would be shocked if we don't bring Carter back for at least next year.

 

Chicks dig the long ball...