Arbitration projections per MLBTR

[madbad2000]

Obviously we use that 8 million to invest in the Carolina Mudcats for long-term stability. I'd prefer if they didn't undertake a big capital investment for food again and use that money to improve the minor league pipeline.

[jerichoholicninja]

What exactly are we spending this saved money on if we non-tender him? The draft is capped as is the international market. I've never seen any evidence that an owner will stockpile cash to any great extent, so pay the man and hope someone needs him midseason.

 

I see it said all the time that if we don't spend money now we can spend it when we're competitive again. I've never seen any evidence that money saved now is actually used later and I doubt that's the case. If the Brewers don't want to spend $8M on Carter next year I can vary well see another team wanting to. That's chump change for most teams, especially ones that are planning to compete in 2017.

[And That]

I've never seen any evidence that money saved now is actually used later and I doubt that's the case.

That's because it's not the case. The Brewers' payroll decisions this year have little to no effect on their payroll decisions a few years from now, obviously except for anyone that's signed to a multi-year contract. That's the beauty of arbitration and non-guaranteed contracts.

[monty57]

People can keep thinking Chris Carter should demand Alvarez/Jaso money, but a year ago that was not the case and little has changed for any of the three players.

 

Yes it has.

 

Carter 2015: .199 avg / .307 OBP / .427 SLG / .734 OPS - he had a horrible year

Carter 2016: .222 avg / .321 OBP / .499 SLG / .821 OPS - he raised his OPS by .087 points. That's a lot.

 

Carter was a good bounceback candidate and he bounced back. No one is saying that he's a great player, but he's far from the worst 1B in the majors.

 

Looking at 1B with at least 400 PA, here are a few guys Carter could probably be comped to:

 

Brandon Moss (.784 OPS, 0.8 WAR) - $6.5M

Eric Hosmer (.761 OPS, 1.0 WAR)- $5.65M (5 yrs service)

Mike Napoli (.800 OPS, 1.0 WAR) - $16M

Mitch Moreland (.720 OPS, 0.7 WAR) - $2.95M (6 yrs service)

Marwin Gonzales (.694 OPS, 1.2 WAR) - $1.062M (4 years service)

John Jaso (.766 OPS, 1.0 WAR) - $3.175M

 

and here are a few other guys who were given over 400 PA at first, showing why Carter would be in demand:

 

Yonder Alonzo (.683 OPS, -0.1 WAR) - $1.65M

Ryan Zimmerman (.642 OPS, -1.1 WAR) - $14M

Adam Lind (.717 OPS, -0.3 WAR) - $7.5M

Mark Teixeira (.654 OPS, -0.6 WAR) - $23.125M

 

There were only 25 guys with 400 or more PA, so that leaves five teams who didn't have someone who could log 2/3 of a season at the position, and that doesn't include retiring or replaceable players and all the AL teams that may want him as a DH.

 

He's power driven, and has some warts, but all that combined make him around the middle of the pack for MLB first baseman, and he certainly would be in demand as a free agent this offseason. I'm not sure that he's worth $8M, but the important thing is that he's likely the best option the Brewers have for first base in 2017, and there is no one in the system he's blocking. I'd be willing

 

The $8M number listed above is a guess. I think it's probably high, but we'll have to wait and see. If it goes to arbitration, it's about showing comparable players and what they're making. Arby is supposed to be cheaper than free agency, so the player should be comped to other guys in the arby years, or discounted vs a free agent contract. Hosmer is probably a good comp, with 5 years service time and a $5.65M price tag. Carter's agent would stress the positives and the Brewers would stress the negatives, but if Hosmer is the comp, I think $8M would be too much.

 

Regardless, if he's worth $5.65M I'd be willing to overspend by a million or two, since we'd otherwise be scrambling to find a competent first baseman. By this time next year, hopefully some of our OFs will have made the transition to the majors and Santana can be moved to first, filling the position for a few seasons. But for now, Carter seems to be the best option.

[JosephC]

The Brewers were shopping Carter early in July and by the trade deadline there was basically no talk surrounding him. It doesn't appear there was any market for him despite having what could very well be the best year he'll ever have. I'd be interested in having Carter back but 8.1 million dollars is a lot of money for a player that probably doesn't fit into the "2019 and beyond plan" and will have questionable trade value. If I was Stearns I'd offer him a 1 year, 5.5 million dollar deal right now to see if he'd bypass arbitration (which I don't think he would). If he would reject the offer then I would non-tender him, let him hit the free agent market and then see how the 1 year, 5.5 million dollar offer would stack up against other offers. Losing Carter just wouldn't impact the long-term outlook for this franchise at all. If Carter is out of the picture the Brewers could take that money and sink it into a couple bounce-back candidates any maybe get lucky and hit the jackpot with one or at least maybe wind up with two trade chips at the deadline next year instead of just having Carter. It will be interesting to see how Stearns handles this situation. No question last year's investment on Carter was an excellent choice.

[MrTPlush]

What exactly are we spending this saved money on if we non-tender him? The draft is capped as is the international market. I've never seen any evidence that an owner will stockpile cash to any great extent, so pay the man and hope someone needs him midseason.

 

So spend money just because we can and have no other use for it(which isn't true)? There is a reason Attanasio has millions and that is not why. You don't spend money just to spend it. That's not how a business is ran.

 

To the person who thinks Carter bounced back that is not true. Teams are pretty smart these days and would take one peak at his home/road splits and know he isn't any better. The increase in SLG(only thing that notably improved) is a direct product of Miller Park.

 

WAR can only take you so far. Teams flat out don't want a guy who strikes out in 33% of his at-bats, can't make contact, can't field, struggles to hit over .200, is streaky, and can't do anything decent outside of hit some homers. It's not valuable and that's why we picked him up for $2.5mil, still had him past the trade deadline, and why two teams went with Jaso/Alvarez over him for more money.

[Roderick]

I've never seen any evidence that money saved now is actually used later and I doubt that's the case.

That's because it's not the case. The Brewers' payroll decisions this year have little to no effect on their payroll decisions a few years from now, obviously except for anyone that's signed to a multi-year contract. That's the beauty of arbitration and non-guaranteed contracts.

 

I don't agree. Every owner is different. I think MA is willing to run the Brewers in a fashion that he isn't trying to make money currently, just cash flow enough. You make your money when you sell the franchise.

 

He realizes that the more surplus you generate in 2017, you can then use to pay down your acquisition debt or acquire revenue generating assets, or a host of ways that will allow you to spend more in 2019 when you are competing for a postseason spot. I think we already have seen that he is willing to deficit spend when the team has postseason chances. He couldn't have made money in the couple of highest payroll years a few years back.

[And That]

He realizes that the more surplus you generate in 2017, you can then use to pay down your acquisition debt or acquire revenue generating assets, or a host of ways that will allow you to spend more in 2019 when you are competing for a postseason spot.

If you're talking about bumping your payroll up from $65 million to $90 million or $100 million, sure. However, paying Carter $8 mil vs. paying him $5 mil vs. paying a group of other schmucks $3 mil isn't going to move the needle anywhere else within the organization. It's within the variance of where they are likely comfortable going with payroll.

 

My guess is the only thing paying Carter will do to next year's payroll budget is, perhaps, preclude them from signing a reliever to a couple-million dollar deal. But I even doubt that is the case.

 

There's also the possibility the Brewers have other plans for first base. Who knows.

[brewcrewdue80]

I see no way Carter is a future value to 8.1 million. That projection is terrible. He did not increase his value over 5million this last season and If his Agent and him asked for 8.1million in Arb and I'm Milwaukee I'm tendering a 5mil flat offer and not negotiating. That Arbitrator should easily be able to see Carter isn't worth the hefty increase in pay and side with Milwaukee at 5million. Isn't there a general scale to these arb salaries?

 

Something like 40-60-80 of a value to FA price tag? Or, comparable players salaries for similar production that reached Arb. If 1WAR is 8mil Carter would be in line for about 4.8million then only. Being on his 60% year for Arb. If you take Mark Trumbo as a comparison and Carter being 1 year behind him, Trumbo received 6.9mil the year of service Carter would be reaching. And only 9.15 this past year. Trumbo isn't just an everyday 1b and plays OF which increases his value compared to Carter.

 

8.1million is not what Carter will approach in Arb this offseason. Surprised if it exceeds 7million. and if it were to reach 7mil as Carter's side and Brewer's side goes with that 4.8mil, the middle agreement reach sans an Arbitrator ruling would be 5.9mil then.

[And That]

Forgot to mention, the Brewers have in all likelihood set their 2017 payroll budget for next year. It's not a matter of paying Carter $8 million or $5 million, it is a matter of fitting that into the budget they've already established. Assuming the payroll budget is in the $65-$70 mil range again next year, that's doable.

 

Basically, paying Carter $8 million does not increase the budget by $8 million. They're not extending their budget for him. It is just $8 million less to spend on other guys.

 

Personally, I don't think he's worth $7 mil or $8 mil. But I can see why the Brewers would keep him.

[MrTPlush]

He realizes that the more surplus you generate in 2017, you can then use to pay down your acquisition debt or acquire revenue generating assets, or a host of ways that will allow you to spend more in 2019 when you are competing for a postseason spot.

However, paying Carter $8 mil vs. paying him $5 mil vs. paying a group of other schmucks $3 mil isn't going to move the needle anywhere else within the organization.

 

Or you could just not spend $3mil on schmucks. That would likely pay for a decent chunk of the Mudcats or can be invested into something else to create future income. For instance this year all that saved money went to the concession stand revamp. Doesn't seems like a big deal, but it should increase sales/revenue so payroll in the future can be higher when we are competing.

[And That]

The Brewers' payroll budget is x. Whatever player or group of players the Brewers pay to play first base must fit within x. The rest of the Brewers' payroll obligations would be budgeted as x-first base payroll.

 

At the end of next season, the Brewers will have an actual payroll expenditure, y. I'd assume there is a directive to keep x>y unless the Brewers find themselves in contention in late July.

 

There will be a difference in x>y. Let's call that difference z. For budgeting purposes, z is incidental. The Brewers would probably prefer it to be a happy (positive) incidental, and it might end up being a large incidental, but regardless of sign or magnitude, it is incidental. The difference z could be given back to the owners or rolled into the 2018 master budget.

 

If the Brewers had wanted to wind up at z, they would have budgeted z in the first place.

 

Anything to do with the Carolina franchise in the coming year for all intents and purposes takes place outside of the Brewers' 2017 payroll expense. If their payroll is dramatically under the budgeted amount, they could roll money out of it mid-year into other projects, but the Brewer are probably good enough with budgeting that things won't get that out of whack. At this point in the year, they know what they want to spend on payroll, and they know what they want to spend on everything else.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, but the budget doesn't need to be a static number for 2017. Otherwise, it's like saying Braun and Garza can't be traded because that would put them well under the budgeted payroll. In other words, nothing wrong with coming in under the budgeted payroll.

[And That]

No, nothing is wrong with it, but the Brewers have probably built in assumptions to their budget about Braun and Garza being traded. They also could take on payroll in a deal similar to the Dbacks deal last offseason. They could sign Ivan Nova.

 

They have a number they probably won't go over but are willing to spend, and they will likely be under that. But it has little or nothing to do with Carolina.

[MrTPlush]

Let's just say 1B payroll is $8mil. Just because Carter at $8mil fits within that doesn't mean we just shrug and pay him $8mil. If we can pay Carter $5mil we pay the dude $5mil. If our payroll limit is $70mil, but we can get the same production for $60mil what are you going to do? Have a $60mil payroll. Just because it fits in the budget doesn't mean we just start throwing around money we don't need to.

[And That]

If the Brewers feel Carter is worth spending $7 or $8 million on in arbitration, they will pay him as such if that amount fits into the payroll budget structure. It's not throwing money around if they feel he's worth it. None of us know what the Brewers' feelings on the subject are, though. We will find out soon enough.

[CheeseheadInQC]

$8 million seems high, but there are some advantages to Carter that could appeal to teams over some of the options available in free agency, at least offensively. Unlike some of the other first baseman around his level (Brandon Moss), his platoon splits aren't bad. Also, for as streaky as he is, he seems like a decent bet to pretty much replicate his full-season stats (one-year wonder Sean Rodriguez). Most of the other non-QO guys, except Pearce, seem to either be lost, done or, in Mike Napoli's case, to have turned into an older version of Chris Carter.

 

I can see there being a market for Carter. Maybe not at $8 million, but I also don't think he'd be as shunned as some suggest.

[MKE81]

The Brewers aren't signing a FA 1b. If Carter isn't back it's because they're trading for a young, blocked 1b since we don't have one in the system kicking the door down. I think Carter is back though and will be getting less than 8M.

 

Anyone saying Carter's production hasn't change from last year just blows my mind. He set a career high in doubles, HR, RBI - his BA bounced back to his normal level, highest OBP in 3yrs, highest OPS in 4yrs. And he's nowhere near the worst 1b overall or defensively. He's not good defensively but he's also not a liability to the point you can't have him in the lineup. He's serviceable.

 

Wily, Chase, Thornburg, Torres should all be back. Scooter needs to be traded. Maldy and Kirk I could care less what they do with them as long as they're not back on this team. Assuming Braun is gone we're looking at Santana/Broxton/Puig with them all missing time so the 4th OF needs to be of a certain quality. I hope Reed is given that chance and he earns it.

[MrTPlush]

Anyone saying Carter's production hasn't change from last year just blows my mind. He set a career high in doubles, HR, RBI - his BA bounced back to his normal level, highest OBP in 3yrs, highest OPS in 4yrs. And he's nowhere near the worst 1b overall or defensively. He's not good defensively but he's also not a liability to the point you can't have him in the lineup.

 

His production changed because he had more at-bats than he has ever had and because he played at Miller Park. Take away those two things and he is identical to his entire career. Chris Carter is not very good...actually he is pretty bad. He is probably borderline Top 5 worst among qualified 1B. Probably is one of the five worsts if you hate his defense enough. Chris Carter is a replacement level player who might have an occasional decent year.

 

I love watching Chris Carter, but his value is pretty minimal. I understand recent history includes Overbay/Yuni/Reynolds, but that doesn't make Carter better than what he is

[monty57]

I've never seen any evidence that money saved now is actually used later and I doubt that's the case.

That's because it's not the case. The Brewers' payroll decisions this year have little to no effect on their payroll decisions a few years from now, obviously except for anyone that's signed to a multi-year contract. That's the beauty of arbitration and non-guaranteed contracts.

 

I don't agree. Every owner is different. I think MA is willing to run the Brewers in a fashion that he isn't trying to make money currently, just cash flow enough. You make your money when you sell the franchise.

 

He realizes that the more surplus you generate in 2017, you can then use to pay down your acquisition debt or acquire revenue generating assets, or a host of ways that will allow you to spend more in 2019 when you are competing for a postseason spot. I think we already have seen that he is willing to deficit spend when the team has postseason chances. He couldn't have made money in the couple of highest payroll years a few years back.

 

I'd guess that the reason the ownership group decided to do a large "capital improvement" right now (before 12-31-2016) is that the team made a big profit this year and the owners don't want to pay taxes on it. Profits and losses for an LLC flow directly to the owners, so they would be on the hook for paying those taxes. That leads to the owners pulling the money out of the LLC in order to cover the taxes.

 

Paying down debt is a good thing to do, but it is not an expense, so the taxes would still be due. The "capital improvement" can be expensed now (or at least part of the depreciation can be) and should increase revenue when the payroll is higher.

 

Payroll is a deductable expense (a large one), so this is how it possibly relates to Carter: He helps sell some tickets and keeps the fans a little bit happier in a period when there is some excess revenue ("Chicks dig the long ball"). An extra million paid to him is a million gone, but the owners would lose around half of that in taxes anyhow, so it's not as big a hit as it would be if they were in a different situation. The positive of keeping a better fan experience means more fans are retained through the "down years" so they don't have to try to get them back when things start to look brighter.

 

A large worry during any rebuild is the loss of ticket sales (revenue). If Carter is too expensive, they won't want him, but if he's a bit overpriced it's not a big deal. That much money would be lost by the fans who don't buy tickets when they see we cut the NL home run champ in order to save a few bucks by giving the playing time to Josmil Pinto and Martin Maldonado. Throw in that many will see a Braun trade as a salary dump, and any goodwill generated by a decent season this year will be lost.

 

I'm as big a fan of this rebuild as anyone, but if the lineup next year is Villar, Broxton, Perez, Santana, Pinto, Nieuwenhuis/Reed, Arcia, Maldonado, pitcher, I'll find better things to do with my time. Thankfully that won't happen, because the Brewers won't dump something of value for nothing in return.

[monty57]

and because he played at Miller Park

 

Minute Maid Park (or whatever the Astros' stadium is now called) isn't really a bad place for RH hitters to hit.

[gregmag]

OPS+ is, I believe, park adjusted. It has Carter at 114 for 2016, 102 for 2015, 123 for 2014, 112 career. Those numbers don't surprise me, based on my prior knowledge of him. It's quite reasonable to say that he was about at his career norms last year. I don't think it's reasonable to say that he didn't bounce back last year from a subpar 2015.

 

More importantly, if somebody doesn't get Chris Carter to use the X-Files theme as his walk-up music, I will continue to be less happy than I optimally could be.

[MrTPlush]

An extra million paid to him is a million gone, but the owners would lose around half of that in taxes anyhow, so it's not as big a hit as it would be if they were in a different situation.

 

Does paying Chris Carter on extra $2-$3mil help sell tickets or make fans happier? This isn't about dumping him or tendering him a contract. This is about tendering him a contract that could be $8mil or non tendering him and resigning him for less, say $5.5mil.

 

I am guessing the only reason non tendering him isn't a no brainer is the fact on the open market some team could offer him a two year deal. Through arbitration talks they could probably get him for $7mil while a strong market could hypothetically force the Brewers to pay 2/$10mil(just a random number). Maybe they don't want him another two years as they are planning to move an OFer to 1B for 2018(another hypothetical situation).

[monty57]

An extra million paid to him is a million gone, but the owners would lose around half of that in taxes anyhow, so it's not as big a hit as it would be if they were in a different situation.

 

Does paying Chris Carter on extra $2-$3mil help sell tickets or make fans happier? This isn't about dumping him or tendering him a contract. This is about tendering him a contract that could be $8mil or non tendering him and resigning him for less, say $5.5mil.

 

I am guessing the only reason non tendering him isn't a no brainer is the fact on the open market some team could offer him a two year deal. Through arbitration talks they could probably get him for $7mil while a strong market could hypothetically force the Brewers to pay 2/$10mil(just a random number). Maybe they don't want him another two years as they are planning to move an OFer to 1B for 2018(another hypothetical situation).

 

Once a player becomes a free agent, he gains the right to turn a team down. If the Brewers non-tender him solely to save money, then he could rightly be upset which would hurt the Brewers' chance of getting him to re-sign.

 

I'm not as knowledgeable about the rules as some on this board, but I believe the Brewers have the opportunity to offer him a deal before offering him arbitration, so they should get an idea as to whether he is willing to sign for a lesser deal. If no deal is done, and they decline to offer him arby, he becomes a free agent. If he wouldn't sign for a lesser deal prior to arby, then the Brewers are riding the hope that no other team in baseball is interested. If that risk doesn't pay off, then we're scrambling to find a first baseman or we're going to be back to playing shortstops and catchers at first base. Whatever your feelings about how bad his bat is, I would bet he'll do better than Pinto, and probably better than Perez. Plus, if we move Perez there, he isn't available to play third, or wherever else we might want him, weakening that position.

 

OPS+ is, I believe, park adjusted. It has Carter at 114 for 2016, 102 for 2015, 123 for 2014, 112 career. Those numbers don't surprise me, based on my prior knowledge of him. It's quite reasonable to say that he was about at his career norms last year. I don't think it's reasonable to say that he didn't bounce back last year from a subpar 2015.

 

Thank you for the response. Adding to that, OPS+ doesn't consider the number of PAs. In 2015, the Astros benched him because he was hitting below .200, so he only ended up with 391 ABs. Getting benched by a playoff team and ending up with a .199 avg is certainly enough to hurt a player's free agent value.

 

Following that up with an .821 OPS season, even if that OPS is SLG heavy, while playing nearly every day is enough to bring that free agent value back up. Again, I'm not saying he's an All Star, but he's an above-average bat who would likely get scooped up if the Brewers let him become a free agent.

 

If we drop from .903 OPS Braun to .750 OPS Puig, and replace .821 OPS Carter with someone who doesn't pan out, we could really quickly have a bad offense.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd guess that the reason the ownership group decided to do a large "capital improvement" right now (before 12-31-2016) is that the team made a big profit this year and the owners don't want to pay taxes on it. Profits and losses for an LLC flow directly to the owners, so they would be on the hook for paying those taxes. That leads to the owners pulling the money out of the LLC in order to cover the taxes.

 

Paying down debt is a good thing to do, but it is not an expense, so the taxes would still be due. The "capital improvement" can be expensed now (or at least part of the depreciation can be) and should increase revenue when the payroll is higher.

 

Payroll is a deductable expense (a large one), so this is how it possibly relates to Carter: He helps sell some tickets and keeps the fans a little bit happier in a period when there is some excess revenue ("Chicks dig the long ball"). An extra million paid to him is a million gone, but the owners would lose around half of that in taxes anyhow, so it's not as big a hit as it would be if they were in a different situation. The positive of keeping a better fan experience means more fans are retained through the "down years" so they don't have to try to get them back when things start to look brighter.

 

A large worry during any rebuild is the loss of ticket sales (revenue). If Carter is too expensive, they won't want him, but if he's a bit overpriced it's not a big deal. That much money would be lost by the fans who don't buy tickets when they see we cut the NL home run champ in order to save a few bucks by giving the playing time to Josmil Pinto and Martin Maldonado. Throw in that many will see a Braun trade as a salary dump, and any goodwill generated by a decent season this year will be lost.

 

I'm as big a fan of this rebuild as anyone, but if the lineup next year is Villar, Broxton, Perez, Santana, Pinto, Nieuwenhuis/Reed, Arcia, Maldonado, pitcher, I'll find better things to do with my time. Thankfully that won't happen, because the Brewers won't dump something of value for nothing in return.

 

It's totally irrelevant to the topic at hand but they said they started working on this last year.