Arbitration projections per MLBTR

[JohnBriggs12]

Carter $8.1 million

Peralta $4.4

Anderson $3.1

Gennett $3.0

Thornburg $2.2

Torres $2.0

Maldonado $1.6

Nieuwenhuis $1.6

 

Have to think they'd consider non-tendering Nieuwenhuis and look for an upgraded lefty bat and perhaps look to deal Maldonado and go with Susac/Pina for less. Thornburg's number seems a bit light to me. If all are brought back, it's roughly $14 million in arby raises.

[MrTPlush]

Why not just non tender Carter and sign him on the open market? Not like there is a downside if he signs elsewhere realistically.

[MadScientist]

Why not just non tender Carter and sign him on the open market? Not like there is a downside if he signs elsewhere realistically.

 

Give up the NL HR leader for nothing!? Payroll isn't a critical issue, and even if it were, 8M for a 40+ hr guy is a tradable contract.

 

Non-tendering Nieuwenhuis makes sense. He's not that good, and not trade bait.

[MrTPlush]

Why not just non tender Carter and sign him on the open market? Not like there is a downside if he signs elsewhere realistically.

 

Give up the NL HR leader for nothing!? Payroll isn't a critical issue, and even if it were, 8M for a 40+ hr guy is a tradable contract.

 

Non-tendering Nieuwenhuis makes sense. He's not that good, and not trade bait.

 

Is that really a contract we can trade? The Houston Astros tried to trade a 40HR+ hitter last winter who was projected to make $5.6mil in 2016. He is very comparable to Chris Carter and got non tendered. Actually you know what, it was Chris Carter. $8mil is overpaying...he was no better last year than his entire career. Last year he warranted $2.5mil, but now he is going to be worth $8mil and be tradable? Seems unlikely to say the least.

 

He has great home run power. Ignore the horrid defense(Fangraphs has him at 13th worst in baseball), 2nd worst K% in baseball 1% behind the worst, 200 strikeouts, 4th worst average in baseball, 18 GDPs, 17/23 in doubles for 1B, Lowest AVG for 1B, Last place in singles for 1B, 21/23 in total hits for a 1B, Last place for contact % for 1B(last in baseball), #1 in swinging strikes for 1B.

 

He hit 41 HRs though.

 

 

Why tender an $8mil contract to someone that isn't likely to get anywhere near that on the open market? Just non tender him and be the highest bidder. I assure you the bidding won't get to $8mil. Actually I would be pretty comfortable saying it would stay under $5mil.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Why not just non tender Carter and sign him on the open market? Not like there is a downside if he signs elsewhere realistically.

 

Give up the NL HR leader for nothing!? Payroll isn't a critical issue, and even if it were, 8M for a 40+ hr guy is a tradable contract.

 

Non-tendering Nieuwenhuis makes sense. He's not that good, and not trade bait.

 

But just looking at the homeruns in a vacuum is a poor way of looking at things. Billy Hamilton was 2nd in the NL in steals, and the NL stolen base leader a year ago, and is probably worth a shade over league minimum. Chris Carter is just a shade above a replacement player because of his terrible batting average, and his extremely bad defense.

 

That being said the issue is "do the Brewers have a readily available replacement?" No, they don't, so he'll probably get tendered anyways. But for all that, all of Carter's homeruns don't even offeset his positional adjustment, bad defense, and mediocre OBP.

[bork]

Even with these raises, the payroll is still below $70 million, so they have flexibility.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think there would be a trade market for Nieuwenhuis. Not a big one, but I think a return similar to the Aaron Hill deal could be had, or perhaps a blocked, out of options infielder with some remaining upside. If he were to be non-tendered, he'd be one of the top center fielders in the non-$5 million plus range on the free agent market. Someone in need of a backup center fielder would take him at the arbitration price.

[adambr2]

After seeing Carter's arbitration projections, I can understand why they are considering non-tendering him. He's probably overpaid at that amount, and I think Stearns is wise to modern analytics and isn't bound to keeping him just because of his HR count. They may try to non-tender him and negotiate a lower deal. If they don't have a backup plan at 1st like Santana and want to buy some time, a short multi year deal might work out for both sides to skip the whole arbitration process, something like 2 years/10-12M.

 

Thornburg and Torres are no-brainers. I'd keep Anderson and Peralta at those amounts. Peralta still has 2 years of control and looks like a possible bounce back candidate. Gennett...I don't know. I don't think he's worth 3M, but if he's tradeable as an arbitration player at that amount, why not.

 

I really don't see any reason to go another year with Maldonado. Nieuwenhuis is probably worth 1.6M as a 4th OFer, but after seeing how much playing time he stole from Broxton and Santana this year, I don't want him anywhere near this team in 2017. The last thing we need is Brinson coming up in July and playing 3 games a week.

[Roderick]

I think there would be a trade market for Nieuwenhuis. Not a big one, but I think a return similar to the Aaron Hill deal could be had, or perhaps a blocked, out of options infielder with some remaining upside. If he were to be non-tendered, he'd be one of the top center fielders in the non-$5 million plus range on the free agent market. Someone in need of a backup center fielder would take him at the arbitration price.

 

I don't see a trade market for Nieuwenhuis at $1.6M. That would be pretty much his value, so maybe you get a low, low level prospect for him, but why bother. If you are signing him it is because you want him on the team, not to set up a future flip.

 

If we non-tender Carter because we don't want to go to arbitration and possibly have to pay $8M, do we have the same chance to sign him as everyone else? For some reason, (and I am probably mixing up the sport or something) I thought there was a window where the Brewers couldn't negotiate for him when everyone else could - if they don't offer arby.

 

I would not go to arby if there is the probability that Carter costs $8M. I would rather risk losing him. I would probably go $6M.

[Surhoff5]

 

Why tender an $8mil contract to someone that isn't likely to get anywhere near that on the open market? Just non tender him and be the highest bidder. I assure you the bidding won't get to $8mil. Actually I would be pretty comfortable saying it would stay under $5mil.

 

One win on the open market is worth roughly $8 million. I realize WAR is not everything, but if using that as a standard, Carter would be get about $8 million if he were a free agent. Last year, he produced only .4 WAR and got $2.5 million.

 

Pedro Alvarez, while left handed, got $5.75 million last year after producing just .2 WAR in 2014 & 2015 COMBINED. I think it safe to assume Carter would get more than that this year.

[monty57]

Carter $8.1 million

Peralta $4.4

Anderson $3.1

Gennett $3.0

Thornburg $2.2

Torres $2.0

Maldonado $1.6

Nieuwenhuis $1.6

 

Have to think they'd consider non-tendering Nieuwenhuis and look for an upgraded lefty bat and perhaps look to deal Maldonado and go with Susac/Pina for less. Thornburg's number seems a bit light to me. If all are brought back, it's roughly $14 million in arby raises.

 

Carter -kind of surprised it's this high after making $2.5M this year. Maybe not worth it, but he's the best option the Brewers have so I expect him to be re-signed, especially since it's only a one-year commitment. The "we'll check the market" talk from Stearns could be bargaining leverage as we get into contract negotiation season.

 

Peralta - I really hope the 2nd half is for real. He's now a no-brainer to re-up, so let's hope he doesn't turn into a frog.

 

Anderson - $3.1M seems a bit much for first year of arby after a so-so season, but maybe I'm just getting old. Still, it's not too much to pay for an innings-eater until the prospects are ready. If he can just be a decent middle-to-back of the rotation starter, he could give us some needed innings and get traded when he becomes expendable.

 

Gennett - good as gone. Hopefully Stearns can get either a Lind- or Rogers-type return for him

 

Thornburg - $2.2M for a high-K closer is so cheap he might not make it to opening day as a Brewer if the market for relievers is still hot

 

Torres - He'll be here... maybe as closer (see Thornburg above). Part of our path to future success is getting a bunch of middle relievers, promoting the good ones to set-up, then closer, and trade them once they're "proven" closers. Since a 1/2 season for a set-up man or closer now seems to be worth a potential top-of-the-rotation starting prospect, this seems like a good model until the market corrects.

 

Maldonado - I'd rather save a million with Pina/Susec

 

Nieuwenhuis - the jury's out until we see what happens with Braun. If Braun is traded, we may need a warm MLB-ready body on the roster until they're ready to promote Brinson. Kirk isn't exciting, but he's a lot better than most of the "trash heap" guys we threw out there this year.

[MrTPlush]

 

Why tender an $8mil contract to someone that isn't likely to get anywhere near that on the open market? Just non tender him and be the highest bidder. I assure you the bidding won't get to $8mil. Actually I would be pretty comfortable saying it would stay under $5mil.

 

One win on the open market is worth roughly $8 million. I realize WAR is not everything, but if using that as a standard, Carter would be get about $8 million if he were a free agent. Last year, he produced only .4 WAR and got $2.5 million.

 

Pedro Alvarez, while left handed, got $5.75 million last year after producing just .2 WAR in 2014 & 2015 COMBINED. I think it safe to assume Carter would get more than that this year.

 

Yah I will pass on the whole "1 WAR is worth this" stuff. Don't know about you, but I don't think Scooter Gennett is getting $8mil on the open market. Also don't think Khris Davis is going to go out and nab $24mil a year. Ryan Braun would also be a total bargain(worth $36mil), but that also hasn't come to fruition.

[adambr2]

Scooter would only get a measly $800K at 1 WAR/8M. Peralta $7.2M. Chase $4.8M. Maldonado would get a crazy $6.4M and Nieuwenhuis an equally crazy $8M. Torres at $5.6M and Thornburg a whopping $16M.

 

I do like WAR and refer to it a lot but there are too many variables and situations to try to use it as a salary predictor especially using pre-FA players.

[Surhoff5]

 

Why tender an $8mil contract to someone that isn't likely to get anywhere near that on the open market? Just non tender him and be the highest bidder. I assure you the bidding won't get to $8mil. Actually I would be pretty comfortable saying it would stay under $5mil.

 

One win on the open market is worth roughly $8 million. I realize WAR is not everything, but if using that as a standard, Carter would be get about $8 million if he were a free agent. Last year, he produced only .4 WAR and got $2.5 million.

 

Pedro Alvarez, while left handed, got $5.75 million last year after producing just .2 WAR in 2014 & 2015 COMBINED. I think it safe to assume Carter would get more than that this year.

 

Yah I will pass on the whole "1 WAR is worth this" stuff. Don't know about you, but I don't think Scooter Gennett is getting $8mil on the open market. Also don't think Khris Davis is going to go out and nab $24mil a year. Ryan Braun would also be a total bargain(worth $36mil), but that also hasn't come to fruition.

 

I can't argue with you one bit on those other guys and I agree I wouldn't use $8 million per win as gospel either. I guess more my point was that if Pedro Alvarez who was really really bad got $5.75 million and John Jaso got $8, I think Carter would get roughly that too.

[trwi7]

Not a chance I'd give Carter $8 million. Save that money for when the team is actually good and just go with Pinto or someone like that for the league minimum and not lose a ton of value anyways.

[trwi7]

I can't argue with you one bit on those other guys and I agree I wouldn't use $8 million per win as gospel either. I guess more my point was that if Pedro Alvarez who was really really bad got $5.75 million and John Jaso got $8, I think Carter would get roughly that too.

 

Jaso got $8 million over 2 years and has a career .360 OBP. Hell, we could probably trade for Jaso so the Pirates can play Bell and save $4 million and not lose any value on the field.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I can't argue with you one bit on those other guys and I agree I wouldn't use $8 million per win as gospel either. I guess more my point was that if Pedro Alvarez who was really really bad got $5.75 million and John Jaso got $8, I think Carter would get roughly that too.

 

Jaso got $8 million over 2 years and has a career .360 OBP. Hell, we could probably trade for Jaso so the Pirates can play Bell and save $4 million and not lose any value on the field.

 

 

Jaso is super-terribad vs. Lefties, doesn't hit for power, has equally as bad defense as Carter, and worst of all, those dreadlocks.

[Devinep]

I think if Carter had any substantial trade value he would have been gone at the deadline last year. If they think he will get 9 million, just let him go and move Santana there to relieve the future OF logjam. Als DFA Maldonado and just go with Pina and Susac

[trwi7]

I can't argue with you one bit on those other guys and I agree I wouldn't use $8 million per win as gospel either. I guess more my point was that if Pedro Alvarez who was really really bad got $5.75 million and John Jaso got $8, I think Carter would get roughly that too.

 

Jaso got $8 million over 2 years and has a career .360 OBP. Hell, we could probably trade for Jaso so the Pirates can play Bell and save $4 million and not lose any value on the field.

 

 

Jaso is super-terribad vs. Lefties, doesn't hit for power, has equally as bad defense as Carter, and worst of all, those dreadlocks.

 

Carter had 1.1 WAR in 644 PA. Jaso had 0.7 WAR in 432 PA. They're essentially the same player with different strengths on offense, except if Carter's arbitration projection is accurate, Jaso would cost half as much. And if you're that concerned about Jaso vs lefties, you could just have Pinto or somebody platoon with him.

 

I don't like Carter but if they can bring him back for $4-5 million, whatever. I won't like it but he's not really blocking anyone. If he asks for anywhere north of that though, non-tender him immediately.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Carter had 1.1 WAR in 644 PA. Jaso had 0.7 WAR in 432 PA. They're essentially the same player with different strengths on offense, except if Carter's arbitration projection is accurate, Jaso would cost half as much. And if you're that concerned about Jaso vs lefties, you could just have Pinto or somebody platoon with him.

 

I don't like Carter but if they can bring him back for $4-5 million, whatever. I won't like it but he's not really blocking anyone. If he asks for anywhere north of that though, non-tender him immediately.

 

You left out that Carter doesn't have ultra-terrible dreadlocks, and a super-punchable face. (not typed in blue)

[MrTPlush]

I guess more my point was that if Pedro Alvarez who was really really bad got $5.75 million and John Jaso got $8, I think Carter would get roughly that too.

 

First thing John Jaso got $8mil over 2 years not one year...big difference. Just throwing that out there so people don't think he got all that money in one year.

 

Pedro Alvarez got money because he had a ton of helium surrounding him. He was at one point a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball. Then he did well in 2013 making the AS Game and winning the Silver Slugger. That being said I think he is the best comp for Carter. Look at the O's though. They had the chance to get Alvarez or Carter and they went with Alvarez for their DH spot. Id think they are comparable, but then again we have an example where a team wanted Alvarez more and Carter got less than half of what Alvarez got. The Pirates also took John Jaso over Chris Carter. Id think the $5.75mil Alvarez got is the ceiling for Carter on the open market.

 

People can keep thinking Chris Carter should demand Alvarez/Jaso money, but a year ago that was not the case and little has changed for any of the three players.

 

Tendering Chris Carter a contract is flushing money down the toilet. If you want him non tender him and win the small bidding war that will be about as intense as bingo in a nursing home.

[MadThinker88]

keeping/ non-tendering Carter might well part of a larger picture that none of us are currently aware.

[Ennder]

Teams over pay for HR, just look at how mediocre Khris Davis is yet some people think he is some hot commodity just because of HR and batting cleanup so he gets RBI even though he is heavily flawed everywhere else.

 

Carter is probably worth keeping and selling to some team mid season who has a big injury at 1B.

[MrTPlush]

Teams over pay for HR, just look at how mediocre Khris Davis is yet some people think he is some hot commodity just because of HR and batting cleanup so he gets RBI even though he is heavily flawed everywhere else.

 

Carter is probably worth keeping and selling to some team mid season who has a big injury at 1B.

 

So are you saying we overpaid at $2.5mil last winter? There is nothing different one year later. How has his value tripled? Khris Davis is not Chris Carter bad. Outside of hitting homers Chris Carter is complete garbage. As I mentioned here or in a different thread minus the HRs he pretty much is the worst at everything else when it comes to first baseman and in some cases he is just the flat out worst in baseball.

 

Not saying they shouldn't retain him, but tendering him a contract for $8mil is wasted money. Not to mention it would make him worth nothing on the trade market. Non tender him and sign him to a different deal. It is that simple. If some one pays him more than what tendering his contract would have costed us jokes on them and we lose nothing.

[igor67]

What exactly are we spending this saved money on if we non-tender him? The draft is capped as is the international market. I've never seen any evidence that an owner will stockpile cash to any great extent, so pay the man and hope someone needs him midseason.