Villar likely to play 2nd Base in 2017

[reillymcshane]

Jon Heyman's latest column says it doesn't look like Villar will be a 3B next year - which means 2B is his likely destination. Also a note about Chris Carter.

 

The Brewers have decided Jonathan Villar is not their future third baseman after experimenting with him over there, as was mentioned in this space last week. He could play second next year, however, following a very nice overall season … The Brewers will be weighing whether to tender Chris Carter a contract. Though he hit 41 home runs, it isn’t necessarily an easy decision for them, as he has work to do defensively and batted just .222. They will judge what his number will be and weigh that against the market. Considering the 50-homer potential, it may still be the safer play to pick it up, but it’s no guarantee.

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-power-ranking-mlb-playoff-teams

[dlk9s]

Also a note about Christ Carter.

I know it was exciting that he led the NL in dingers, but let's not get carried away.

[reillymcshane]

Also a note about Christ Carter.

I know it was exciting that he led the NL in dingers, but let's not get carried away.

Ha! Nice. Fixed it.

 

It reminds of this old Onion article:

 

http://www.theonion.com/article/christ-returns-to-nba-1996

[MrTPlush]

They will tender Carter a contract. Unless they are envisioning some type of better replacement it isn't that hard of a decision(which seems unlikely). He wouldn't get a big raise and he brings some excitement to the ball club.

[adambr2]

What did Carter make this year, $3M?

 

I think he'll get around $5-$6M in arbitration.

[yfinn6]

The Brewers weren't really hoping Carter would suddenly figure out how to hit for average while getting every day at-bats, were they? His tool is that he can hit homeruns, and he'll take a walk, but mainly the homeruns. I have to think the Brewers know that, but I guess Heyman had to add something to that possible non-tender of Chris Carter after he hit 41 bombs.

[adambr2]

Carter only had a 1.1 WAR in 2016, which shows how limited his game is besides hitting for power.

 

But, for lack of a better option, I'd offer him $5-6M in arbitration. It's pretty fair and affordable and buys they another year to figure out 1st. Barring a trade for a young MLB ready 1st baseman or a plan we don't know about yet (like Santana at 1st), no real reason not to tender Carter.

[balsamlaker]

Villar is definitely not a great third baseman at this point. Defensively an infield of Carter, Villar, Arcia, and Perez first to third probably makes the most sense.

[rickh150]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

[jerichoholicninja]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

 

I'm pretty sure Heyman is making up the part about Carter but I would say it's about what he could get in arbitration more than anything. He's going to get majorly rewarded for the HR's despite not providing much of anything else.

[stoutdude04]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

 

2nd basemen that can stick are a bit more challenging to find.

[1992casey]

Heyman's blurb doesn't necessarily jibe with comments by Counsell and Stearns at the end of the year news conference this week.

 

From Todd Rosiak:

 

Counsell says he doesn't know where Jonathan Villar will play next year, but he's pleased he was able to get a look at him at second base. Said he struggled at third, but doesn't think that necessarily rules him out there. "I'm always going to explore versatile players. Hernan Perez is certainly best in that role. His value is in his versatility."

Stearns says where Villar winds up in 2017 depends on what happens with the personnel moves the team makes in the offseason.

Stearns on Villar: "I knew we were acquiring a talented player, and a player who hadn't performed yet at the major-league level. He's probably exceeded most everybody's expectations this year."

Stearns asked about Chris Carter being the first baseman next year. "At this stage, I would anticipate that."

Stearns asked about Carter's value in the big picture: "We're pleased with the year Chris had. Clearly there are ways he can improve his game."

At any rate, I wouldn't give up Carter for nothing when the Brewers have more than enough money to keep him. Villar at 2B makes sense; he's more advanced at that position than he is at third, and he says he's more comfortable there. But I don't see that being etched in stone just yet.

[Baldkin]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

 

OPS is one of the easiest ways to compare offensive seasons.

 

Position, defense as well as baserunning all factor in to player value.

 

If we're going into who's most likely to duplicate their 2016, my money would definitely be on Carter.

[TURBO]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

 

2nd basemen that can stick are a bit more challenging to find.

 

Not for us, we can't find a 1B to save our lives, but we can find 2B/IF like no one's business...

[brewmann04]

I hope they keep Carter his HR Potential in the lineup is Important. Villar will be starting and its all speculation what position he play

[DuWayne Steurer]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

 

 

Villar's OPS was skewed toward's OBP. He also gets a positional adjustment. .820 OPS SS and 2B are a bit harder to come by than .820 OPS 1st baseman. Carter is also a pretty poor defender, so he has negative value as a defender.

[1992casey]

Not for us, we can't find a 1B to save our lives, but we can find 2B/IF like no one's business...

If a team finds itself with a surplus of players at 2B/SS/3B who can actually hit, one of them can likely be shifted to 1B.

[adambr2]

So the brains in baseball say that OPS is one the best stats to decide player value? Yet, how do they explain Villar having .005 more in OPS than Carter, with Carter being a debatable non tender and Villar being a must keep Brewers 2016 MVP? Does position play into this? Is it because of defense and SB?

 

It's 95% position. .800 OPS 1st basemen with mediocre defense are a dime a dozen. .800 OPS middle infielders are much tougher to find, and the speed is a bonus.

 

Your first basemen are expected to be your sluggers. To a bit lesser extent 3rd basemen and corner outfielders are expected to hit too.

 

Catcher, middle infield, but especially SS, and CF, are all positions where a great bat is a big bonus.

[CheeseheadInQC]

If they are moving Villar to second, I think it is more likely next year's third baseman isn't currently with the organization. Perez works great in the utility role, and the Brewers don't really have anyone in the minors who looks like he is going to develop into a starting 2B/SS/3B before 2019 (the earliest I see any of Diaz, Erceg or even someone like Rijo if he breaks out making the big leagues).

[JohnBriggs12]

Did I miss something? Who's the alternative to Carter? Counsell just said he sees Perez as super utility guy. Do we really know 2B is Villar's best position? He's played a handful of games there. That's it. He was awful at 3B but got better toward the end. Besides, Scooter is the only other reliable LH bat in the lineup.

 

Unless there's a deal in the works where Brewers get a big lefty stick to play 1B, I don't see either scenario. Carter's not going to stress the payroll as low as it is. Gennett won't bring much value in a deal. Average 2b aren't in great demand.

[reillymcshane]

My thoughts are that the club is going to looking at 2017 as yet another developmental season. They'll live with some experiments knowing that it might hurt them short term, but be net gains in the long run.

 

That means Villar at 2B. We need players like Villar in the lineup, and he just didn't look good at 3B, so 2B is where he'll get slotted. His offense plays well at the position, and with some work, he probably will be a solid player there (hopefully better than at SS, where he was pretty erratic). The option is if someone offers us a really good trade - then you can consider that.

 

Assuming Villar ends up at 2B, that means Scooter will get traded. Nothing wrong with Scooter, but he is limited against lefties (although he did okay this year), and he doesn't offer position versatility. His left handed bat is nice to have, but it's not like it is elite. His OPS against righties the last three years is .733, .713 and .802. That's not exactly irreplaceable. And it's not like his a defensive whiz.

 

As for Carter, I don't see them losing 41 HR. But you never know. They could certainly trade him if they want to move on from him. The club could go after a left handed bat in FA - Brandon Moss, Adam Lind, Luis Valbeauno (who could play 3B as well) - just to name a few guys. Some are better than others. All have risks. As long as they aren't getting overpaid in years and cash, one might be a serviceable stopgap for the next year or two. Or maybe there are some minor league guys they are willing to take a chance on with the job. If they want to do something like that, now's the time to give it a try.

 

Regarding the need for a left handed bats - I'm all for a balanced lineup, but I also think that they will emerge down the road. If we are a bit right handed to start 2017, then so be it. Many of our top bats are left-handed - Brinson, Phillips, Diaz, Clark, Ray - those guys may start arriving as early as 2017 (I don't expect any of them to start 2017 in Milwaukee, but Brinson and Phillips may get here next season).

 

I'm not to worried about it all. I think we are still at the stage where so much of the future is fluid. The team needs to watch for opportunities - like they did with Broxton and Villar. Who knows what Braun might bring in a trade.

[Outlander]

Bronson is right handed FWIW. However, your overall point still stands.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Unless there's a deal in the works where Brewers get a big lefty stick to play 1B, I don't see either scenario. Carter's not going to stress the payroll as low as it is. .

 

Here's a point to be made. They have a super low payroll. They have no "developmental" first baseman...... unless they have some undisclosed plan to move someone like Santana there (which I don't believe is going to happen yet)

 

Carter isn't great, but he's certainly not bad, and he provides something the rest of the lineup generally lacks, and that's big time power. Given Carter's age and history it's not at all unreasonable to expect that he should be right around an .800-ish OPS again with 35-40 more homers.

[monty57]

Per ESPN, Gennett is 21st of the 25 2B in the league in OPS (min 400 AB) and 23rd in WAR. Take that down to 300 AB and he's still 22nd in OPS, but moves down to 29th of 35 in WAR. There aren't many 2B in the league less valuable than him. Hopefully we can flip him in a Rogers-for-Broxton type deal and either start Perez or someone from outside the organization at third. Ideally, Stearns could find another Villar-type trade this offseason to pick up his 2017 3B, but regardless of where he comes from, it shouldn't be hard to find someone at third to replace Gennett's value.

 

As to Carter, I'd imagine he'll be a Brewer in 2017. He won't be that expensive, he brings some excitement, and the Brewers don't really have any other options at first.

[sveumrules]

Agree that Scooter's trade value is pretty low. Good match might be the Angels who got pretty terrible production out of 2B last year. They don't have much in the way of prospects but maybe Stearns could unearth some interesting rookie level arms a la the Lind deal.