College Basketball 2016-2017

[patrickgpe]

Marquette has the look of a team that is going to pull off a 12 vs. 5 seed upset in the first round of the tourney.

i think Marquette will be an 8 or 9, as of right now, but there is a lot of basketball to be played.

[pacopete4]

The Badgers should be shooting free throws until their arms and legs cannot shoot any longer. This team does an amazing job getting to the line but that's about where it ends.

[LouisEly]

They just can't stop penetration and Fischer provides very little interior defense.

You're half right. They can't stop penetration, but Fischer and his seven blocks this weekend disagree with the other half. The problem is when you can't stop penetration, a good team will put the interior defender in a position where he has to make a choice between stopping the penetration and leaving his guy; that leaves the other team's big open for a dunk or unblocked for an offensive rebound.

 

Unless you have an elite shot blocker, allowing lots of penetration and good interior defense tend to be inversely proportional.

[brwrsfan]

He gets a lot of blocks but he's not intimidating down there to me. Guys don't shy away from him by any means. He also sometimes seems to get caught in between, where he wants to contest, but he also seems to pickup fouls pretty easily. And if he fouls out or has to go to the bench, there's just nobody else behind him. I don't view him as a great post up defender either. He's not horrible and teams could do worse certainly but he's really the only option and that creates problems when he can't necessarily defend as aggressively as he might want to.

 

The penetration is the bigger issue though, teams seemingly get in there at will and from there, yeah like you said, it causes a ton of issues.

[brwrsfan]

Badgers find another win on the road despite a very bad offensive showing (again). Shot just 36% for the game, gave up a ton of offensive rebounds...and still won. Gotta figure they're going to get burned here sooner or later if they don't snap out of this offensive funk. It's been 4 games now (albeit all wins amazingly).

 

I will complain about this though, I will NEVER understand why you let a team attempt a tying three point shot with less than 5 seconds left in college basketball. I know the guy that hit the shot tonight is a big guy, who was 13% for the season on three pointers taking a step back shot...and it was pretty lucky that it went in given those factors, but why even let him shoot it?? I know people argue both ways, but for me, if you foul with less than 5 seconds left - a LOT has to go wrong for you to lose or not get to overtime. Sure, maybe they call a cheap foul and give 3 FT. Maybe they make one, tap it out and hit a three, but those are longshots. A vast majority of the time, the absolute worst case is they make it, get the board and tie it. More often than not, they won't get the second rebound and/or score. Just my take on it, but I'd take my chances fouling and just simply make them do all those things right, as opposed to letting them take a three to tie - even if it's a prayer, it has a better shot of going in then making a FT, missing and scoring again IMO.

[MrTPlush]

The problem is the ball gets inbounded with a lot of time left. You aren't going to fouls with 10 seconds on the clock. By the time it got down to 5 seconds they had the ball at the 3 point line where fouling is risky business.

[trwi7]

Nobody was in a position to take a shot until the guy for Nebraska actually took the shot. Easily could've fouled. The main problem was Koenig played horrible defense on the last possession. When they set the screen, Happ came out to the guard to contest as he's heading towards the corner. That's going to be an incredibly difficult shot to make with a guy 8 inches taller than you defending knowing that you have to shoot the 3.

 

So Happ basically has the guard, there's no reason for Koenig to rush over to recover on defense. The only thing he needs to do is either guard the guy who set the screen or get himself between the ball and the screener to make the pass back to the screener a lot more difficult, if not impossible. Instead he flies back to the guard at a bad angle, over commits on defense and ends up running past the player with the ball. This allows the guard to make an easy kick out pass to the screener who is now wide open because Koenig decided to switch back on defense even though there was no reason to.

[MrTPlush]

The problem is you don't really need to be in position to shoot the 3. Just have the ability to throw the basketball in the air. I just don't really think they ever got in a position to go for a foul. Once it got down to 5 seconds(once again when I believe fouling is a safe idea) they were kind of in a pickle. #24 would have had a chance, but judging by the fact he put his hands up he probably thought the Nebraska player was going to put up the shot. Unfortunately for him he didn't shoot stepped away from the Wisconsin defenders and dished it to the big man to have an open 3. I am guessing no one on Wisconsin was going to take the big man seriously on the 3 point arc...which would probably work any other time.

 

Though I really doubt Wisconsin had in place a plan to foul at any point just speaking in hypotheticals if they were to have.. It just isn't common no matter how much it is thrown out there. I guess the biggest worry is fouling and then turning it over when you try to throw it in. That or the concern of giving the other team 3 free throws when they jump and put up a pathetic shot to draw the foul. Most coaches probably stick to the worst case scenario being a tie game and OT. Getting cute with the fouling could make the worst case scenario be losing. If they hit it tip your cap and get ready for 5 more minutes.

[fondybrewfan]

If you are up 3 and they make it at the end of regulation the worst scenario is overtime. If you foul the worst scenario is a loss in regulation due to the additional possible scoring opportunities.

 

Badgers will take that dude taking a step back 3 any day.

 

I agree that eventually this offensive funk will come back to bite them. Koenig is obviously hurt and when Happ is as double teamed as hard as he was his teammates need to come and help. Happ had a horrible game passing out of the double team.

 

Still in a good position up 2 games with about 3 weeks to go in the regular season and you still get the 3rd and 4th place teams at home yet. If they win the B10 they are probably a pretty safe bet to end up in Milwaukee

[brwrsfan]

Yes, the absolute worst case scenario if you foul is the make a FT, miss, tap it out and hit a three at the buzzer and you lose. But realistically, what are the odds of that actually happening? Lots of teams have fouled, and I can't remember it ever going down like that (though I'm sure it has at some point). But if you foul, you have several different ways of winning - missing the first FT, getting the rebound on the second FT or if they do happen to get the rebound, getting a stop. And unless the ball gets tapped out and you get really unlucky, with just 1-3 seconds left, whoever rebounds the ball is likely going to be the one taking the shot - meaning a two pointer. Just my thoughts - I'd foul every time. Chances are in your favor of winning as opposed to letting the game get to overtime.

 

Yes, they did wind up with a 13% shooter taking a stepback, which is probably the best scenario they could hope for if someone is going to shoot it...but he made it. I wouldn't even give them the shot, but I also agree that Koenig played poor defense. No reason to double the guy, cover the big and let Happ cover the guard on the switch. Make him shoot over...if he drives by Happ with 4 seconds left, so be it.

 

Happ did struggle with the double, which was unusual as he's seen it all season. What's gotta be getting frustrating for him is that when he does find the open guy (which always seems to be Vitto Brown), he keeps missing wide open threes. I think Vitto Brown is something like 2-26 on threes the last 4 games, almost all of which are wide open. I keep thinking they'll erupt for like 55 in a half, as this team was scoring ton of points the first 16 games of the season, but it's just not happening. Both the last two games they started off well, then went in massive slumps. You'd think a hot start would give them confidence, but it just hasn't happened. Hopefully soon.

[pacopete4]

I love the fact that they are winning games when not playing their best. I am hoping they are saving up their hot streak for the months of March and April. Koenig and Vito Brown were pretty bad last night. I've been waiting for Vito to take the next step in his game but haven't really seen a lot from him this season. It was nice to see Hayes knock down such a clutch three as he hasn't exactly been that guy lately in his career. This team has put themselves in position to win the Big Ten and I can't complain about that.

[FVBrewerFan]

Realistic chance the Badgers will be the first #1 seed to lose in the 1st round. First, they need to get a #1 seed, of course, but I think they can earn that by losing maybe one more game, then winning the conf tourney. That will be tough to do, but possible. Then all it takes is some horrific shooting by the Badgers, and the other team to shoot the lights out for one night. Add in foul trouble for Happ or something, I can really see them getting upset.

 

That said, they could also make the Final 4 again.

[pacopete4]

Realistic chance the Badgers will be the first #1 seed to lose in the 1st round. First, they need to get a #1 seed, of course, but I think they can earn that by losing maybe one more game, then winning the conf tourney. That will be tough to do, but possible. Then all it takes is some horrific shooting by the Badgers, and the other team to shoot the lights out for one night. Add in foul trouble for Happ or something, I can really see them getting upset.

 

That said, they could also make the Final 4 again.

 

This is pretty much how I feel. Enough talent to win it all but inconsistent enough on the offensive end to lose game one. Sounds like a Badgers team to me!

[rwa12]

I really don't know what to think of this Badger team. I don't get to see all the games, but I haven't seen Koenig look good this year. Hayes just never took that next step, to me. Brown didn't advance, I like Happ, but I feel you can get him in foul trouble easily and quickly. I'm hoping this is the beginning of them gelling for a post-season run.

 

I guess I agree with you guys, could see them losing to a 14 seed, or reaching the final four.

[trwi7]

Realistic chance the Badgers will be the first #1 seed to lose in the 1st round.

 

There's not a chance we get a #1 seed. The resumé is awful and isn't going to get much better because the Big Ten is horrible.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sure there is. If they go 30-3, winning Big 10 reg season title and Big 10 tourney they will absolutely be in the mix for #1 seed. Some of those teams ahead of them will stumble, happens every year. RPI hurts them, but that isn't the only factor the committee uses. If Gonzaga goes undefeated, will be interesting to see if they're denied a #1 seed.

 

Like I said, not very likely but they do have a realistic chance at being a #1 seed. Just way too early to say there's not a chance.

[tmwiese55]

Yea there's a chance if they win out, which will obviously be tough in itself. But I still think they would end up at a 2 since they won't have any good wins.

 

Gonzaga will for sure be a 1 if undefeated. They actually beat a lot of good major conference teams early on. I do think they're good and better than UW, but I'd still love to be in their bracket since Gonzaga is really more on the level of a 2 or 3 seed but inflated due to their schedule, so it just makes for an easier bracket.

[fondybrewfan]

They are more likely to be a 4 or a 5 than a 1. The marquee wins will not be there at all. I think a lot would need to go right from them even to be a 2 seed.

 

I think they can be a 2nd weekend team again but unless Koenig, Hayes, and Brown are shooting well I just can't imagine them advancing past a Sweet 16.

[MrTPlush]

The Badgers have no realistic shot at a #1 seed. They are 2-3 against ranked teams. Not only that, but the two teams they did beat aren't even ranked anymore. They have zero good wins. Maybe you can think up some crazy idea to make them a #1 or #2 seed, but that team isn't good enough to do it.

[FVBrewerFan]

See, if Gonzaga is a #1 for sure, they barely have a better RPI than Wisconsin. Obviously Big 10 is way down this year but playing the Maryland, Purdue, Ohio St, Northwesterns etc. is overall as tough as Gonzaga's schedule. True, no big wins for UW, but if they go 30-3 that's a whole lot of wins against "good" teams.

 

They're #7 AP right now, so I don't think it's crazy. Still unlikely, but there's a lot of ball to play yet. What do I really think? Yea, I think they lose a couple games yet and end up as #3-4 seed.

[tmwiese55]

Gonzaga has beat: Arizona, Tennessee, Florida, Iowa St, Washington, and presumably will have beat St Mary's 2 or 3 times. That AZ win will loom large in validating them as a 1. Don't get me wrong, I get what you're saying regarding how UW should have a shot at a 1 as well. But RPI isn't everything and we all know they'll put an undefeated as a 1, it is what it is. And I do grant that if UW wins out they'd have a shot at a 1 depending on how others do. My guess, they'll lose one more regular season somehow and lose in the B1G. 50/50 between a 2 and a 3 seed.

[DHonks]

See, if Gonzaga is a #1 for sure, they barely have a better RPI than Wisconsin. Obviously Big 10 is way down this year but playing the Maryland, Purdue, Ohio St, Northwesterns etc. is overall as tough as Gonzaga's schedule. True, no big wins for UW, but if they go 30-3 that's a whole lot of wins against "good" teams.

 

They're #7 AP right now, so I don't think it's crazy. Still unlikely, but there's a lot of ball to play yet. What do I really think? Yea, I think they lose a couple games yet and end up as #3-4 seed.

 

This is pretty much most years recently. What separates Wiscy is that they are unbelievably clutch. They win more games that they should lose than any other team. I think I've tuned in 3 or 4 times in the last month with sure-losses in the last minute or so, and they wound up winning each

[nate82]

Current tournament rankings have the Badgers outside of a 4 seed so I don't see them getting a 1 or a 2. At best I think the Badgers could get is a 4.

[tmwiese55]

Yea no shot at a seed after that today. I thought they'd be a 3 right now, maybe a 4. Can't believe they weren't in it as a 4 right now, but really it's just the difference of a couple spots. I'd say now they're most likely a 3 with a shot at a 2. No chance at 1

[MrTPlush]

Just aren't going to get love when your schedule is weak(ish) and the good teams you did play you lost more than you won. Wisconsin just does not scream top team to me.