If I had told you in July 2015...

[JohnBriggs12]

Jean Segura would bounce back and hit .328/.367/.498 in 2016.

 

They would trade a minor league pitcher for a guy who can play 3B or 2B and would hit .285/.369/.458 with 19 HR and would lead the NL in SB in 2016 and be controllable for many more years.

 

Khris Davis would hit 41 HR and have 100 RBI in 2016.

 

Ryan Braun would bounce back and post an OPS over .900

 

Jonathon Lucroy would make another All Star team and post an .851 OPS in 2016

 

They'd get a relatively young and controllable CF in a minor deal who over the 2nd half of 2016 would post an OPS of .937 and steal 16 bases.

 

They'd deal Gerardo Parra for a young pitcher who in his first 34 major league starts would be 14-9 with an ERA under 4

 

They'd sign a cheap, controllable through 2018 1B who'd hit 39 HR and drive in 92 runs in 2016

 

They'd pluck off the scrap heap a controllable starting major league minimum pitcher who'd make 20 starts and post a sub 3.00 ERA as a rookie

 

Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Thornbug would both prove to be top of the line late inning relievers

 

Hernan Perez would prove to be a valuable super utility player, hit double digit HR and steal over 30 bases playing all over

 

That 85-86 wins would secure an NL wild card berth in 2016.

 

If we'd known all that, would the narrative coming from ownership that they had no chance the next couple years so lets dismantle the roster and start over make sense? Hindsight is indeed 20-20 but when you make a radical change (and lets hope things do work out eventually) and deal quality players for prospects, you can still be subject to 2nd guessing. Point is also that there are deals to be made that improve the product on the field that don't involve dismantling the core of the team. Imagine the return if they pedaled Segura and Davis this offseason?

[homer]

But we didn't know that. Hindsight is fun.

[MrTPlush]

Segura would NOT have ever turned it around here. We would have had the same garbage Segura we had for years!! He turned it around because he left.

 

And no even if we could have won 85 games they would have made the same moves and won 73ish. We are building a perrenial contender not some one time 85 win team that would have been the worst team in the postseason.

[rwa12]

I'm pretty thrilled with the return for Segura, I'm not sure we would get Diaz again after his year at A. As far as Davis, I assume you would still be upset in the return. We would get prospects back, which is what we got in the first place. Maybe better, maybe worse. At the time of the trade, Nottingham was very well thought of.

[adambr2]

And if we had known that we would start the 2015 season 7-18, we would have started the rebuild sooner, like the offseason prior. Seriously, any strategy can be second guessed. But I sure wouldn't throw away an entire rebuild, the whole point of which is to build a lasting contender, not just give ourselves one shot, just to have a chance to make the playoffs one year where 85-86 wins is enough to get in.

 

Not that it really matters to the point, but in my opinion this team would likely be slaughtered in the postseason this year. Just don't have fresh top starters that can compete with the rest of the field.

[tmwiese55]

And with all that you're still missing top end starting pitching which is the difference in getting from low 70s to legit contender.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The hardest thing to do in a rebuild is have the vision to see it through to the end. Abandoning a rebuild halfway through to attempt to chase an 85 win season is folly at it's finest. Especially in a season in which the Cubs are (literally) going into the playoffs with five aces and a stacked offense, the Nats look fantastic, and the Dodgers are back to full strength. The Brewers don't even have a #2 pitcher. Chasing a wild card this year, and abandoning the rebuild for this would be the absolute epitome of foolhardy. Winning *every year* is not necessary if you have the fortitude to see the means to the end.

 

Jean Segura basically = Jonathan Villar at any rate...... and who's to say that either Segura or Davis put up the numbers they did in Milwaukee? For all K. Davis' gaudy counting stats, he's still basically a league average player, as (as has been stated over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over), he sucks at defense, hits for poor average, takes a sub-par amount of walks, and generally doesn't do much besides hit for power. That's great, but he's not a top-tier offensive player. Lamenting over a 2.5-3 WAR player like he was a cornerstone is doing a disservice to all the other good moves Stearns has made.

 

 

The ship has sailed. The dead horse has been beaten. This is the deck we have been dealt. yada yada etc, etc, etc.

[monty57]

Many of those moves were made only because of management's decision to change direction. All these things are not done in a vacuum, but rather seem to have been done according to a plan (which is wonderful) as opposed to the "patch a hole" method to which we all became accustomed.

 

1) Segura's bounce back is great, but it's not for the Brewers. In his stead, we have one of the pitchers who will be in our somewhat tattered rotation for a while, our starting 3B who netted us a prospect in trade, and one of our top prospects, who is part of the reason we now have one of the top two farms in baseball.

 

2) The Villar trade likely wouldn't have happened if Segura was not traded (see 1 above).

 

3) By now, everyone on this board is well aware that Khris Davis can hit home runs. However, he hit for a .246 average and .304 OBP, limiting his offensive value, and his arm is weaker than most high schoolers', allowing runners carte blanche on the basepaths. That said, trading him opened up a corner spot for Santana (who had been playing CF due to Davis and Braun being on the roster), which is probably why the Broxton trade (see 6 below) was made. Consequently, making the Broxton trade opened up first base, so instead of being stuck with a AAAA first baseman, Stearns took a flier by signing Carter (see 8 below)

 

4) Braun's ability was not in question, just his health. It's wonderful to see that he had a relatively healthy season.

 

5) Like Braun, Lucroy's ability was not in question. He was just signed for a short enough period that trading him when he had high value and we weren't in the playoff hunt instead of letting him walk to free agency after 2016 made sense. He was on this team, and we were not a playoff contender. Now we have three more really good prospects who should help us to the playoffs in the future.

 

6) Broxton was a great pickup (and he wasn't the only one in that trade). This trade, and Broxton getting substantial playing time after a horrific start, likely wouldn't have happened if we were "going for it."

 

7) I'm very happy Davies has been successful, but again, trading Parra for a prospect and giving that prospect a spot in the rotation was done because we are not "going for it." We could have easily signed another Lohse this past offseason to keep Davies in the minors, or relegated to the 'pen.

 

8) I love watching Carter hit, but it's unlikely we would have given time to a guy who had such a horrible 2015 and was benched on a playoff team (one that had a DH). This season was an ideal time to give guys like him a shot, and in his case (in addition to guys like Villar, Broxton, Guerra and Davies) it paid off.

 

9) Like Davies, I'm very glad for Guerra's success. He never would have gotten a shot at starting over the past decade, as we would have signed a 30-something "proven" guy to a $10-15MM per year / 3-4 year deal rather than let an "unproven" journeyman 30-year-old get a chance. We will never know how many opportunities like this we missed over the past decade because we needed "proven" on the MLB roster.

 

10) I am not surprised at all that Jeffress and Thornburg have shown success as closers. Like Lucroy, they were both on this year's team and we didn't win. Jeffress (and Smith) were traded because the market for relievers was unbelievably hot. Had it been more normal, they would likely still be on the Brewers. If Thronburg is traded this offseason, that's the reason. Naming someone "Closer" is probably the easiest way to quickly turn a somewhat valuable player into a very valuable player. Jeffress is good, but not one of the best relievers in baseball, but by naming him closer, his value rose and he was sought after and therefore traded.

 

11) Perez was a good find by Melvin, and his "super utility" status became known because in a down year like this the team took a chance at trying him out all over the field to see if he could handle it. That makes him much more valuable for future Brewer teams that may have a shot at the playoffs.

 

12) The second Wild Card spot does put a lot more teams in playoff contention. With our pitching, we weren't winning 85-86 games this year. However, with the moves listed above in addition to all those not listed, we are now in good shape to be pushing for the playoffs a lot sooner than most would have expected when the rebuild was announced mid-way though the 2015 season.

 

I think what management has done, turning an aging, under-performing, expensive MLB roster with one of the worst farms in baseball into a young, cheap, athletic, exciting roster with one of the best farms in baseball in just over one season is phenomenal. Looking at where we are today vs where we were mid-way through the 2015 season, I can't believe that anyone would still say that what the team did was a mistake.

[Baldkin]

Jean Segura would bounce back and hit .328/.367/.498 in 2016.

 

They would trade a minor league pitcher for a guy who can play 3B or 2B and would hit .285/.369/.458 with 19 HR and would lead the NL in SB in 2016 and be controllable for many more years.

 

Khris Davis would hit 41 HR and have 100 RBI in 2016.

 

Ryan Braun would bounce back and post an OPS over .900

 

Jonathon Lucroy would make another All Star team and post an .851 OPS in 2016

 

They'd get a relatively young and controllable CF in a minor deal who over the 2nd half of 2016 would post an OPS of .937 and steal 16 bases.

 

They'd deal Gerardo Parra for a young pitcher who in his first 34 major league starts would be 14-9 with an ERA under 4

 

They'd sign a cheap, controllable through 2018 1B who'd hit 39 HR and drive in 92 runs in 2016

 

They'd pluck off the scrap heap a controllable starting major league minimum pitcher who'd make 20 starts and post a sub 3.00 ERA as a rookie

 

Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Thornbug would both prove to be top of the line late inning relievers

 

Hernan Perez would prove to be a valuable super utility player, hit double digit HR and steal over 30 bases playing all over

 

That 85-86 wins would secure an NL wild card berth in 2016.

 

If we'd known all that, would the narrative coming from ownership that they had no chance the next couple years so lets dismantle the roster and start over make sense? Hindsight is indeed 20-20 but when you make a radical change (and lets hope things do work out eventually) and deal quality players for prospects, you can still be subject to 2nd guessing. Point is also that there are deals to be made that improve the product on the field that don't involve dismantling the core of the team. Imagine the return if they pedaled Segura and Davis this offseason?

 

 

Keep on beating that horse. Eventually the meat will soften up.

They weren't winning 86 games with this pitching staff. Having Khris Davis and Jean Segura and 40 more games of Lucroy, Jeffress and Smith wasn't going to win them 15 more games.

 

Do you honestly think that?

[tmwiese55]

Absolutely great post by Monty. completely nailed it.

[logan82]

Honestly, I probably still make all those moves. Now we are in a position with more talent and depth so when we start winning gain it will be more than a flash in the pan.

[MrTPlush]

Absolutely great post by Monty. completely nailed it.

 

He could have ended it after the first sentence. That is exactly what I was thinking and all that really needs to be said.

 

Briggs likes to point out things that fit his argument. However he won't admit that some of the positives he listed were because we decided to rebuild, that we still wouldn't likely win 85 games, that Segura wouldn't turn it around here, that our starting rotation is a joke, or that if we were still trying to compete we would have held on to Gomez who has been horrid for the most part. No one likes a bias argument Briggs.

[monty57]

He could have ended it after the first sentence

 

Yeah, but I'm long-winded :-)

[JDBrewCrew]

This reads like the start of a 30 for 30 episode, "what if I told you....." Anyway, great read and thanks for the post.

[MadScientist]

If I were told this, I'd think there was some hope that the rebuild would be shorter rather than longer. When you add in the fact that we now have the highest rated farm system, I'd think that the Brewers brain trust has finally got it's act together and maybe I'll finally see a Brewers WS win in my lifetime.

[CheeseheadInQC]

No one bats 1.000 and in order to hit on every one Stearns and Co. would have had to have been able to predict things that go beyond player performance, most notably Santana's injury. I've always looked at the Davis trade much more as clearing a space for Santana than as your standard deal off veterans for prospects rebuilding deal, and I think if Santana hadn't been part of the Gomez/Fiers trade that there is a good chance Davis is still a Brewer.

 

Also, the very nature of trying to both improve a Major League roster and simultaneously rebuild, especially for a payroll-limited team, means some failure is inevitable because it demands risk, and lots of it. A number of the guys you're including as success stories likely wouldn't have been given everyday playing time on a team that was "going for it" (and after his initial failure, Broxton almost certainly would have been stuck in AAA for the rest of the year). And if I remember correctly, didn't you want to play it safe and bring in veterans to fill a couple of those spots?

 

I'm opposed to pure tanking because it means you're purposefully avoiding adding talent at one of the levels of your organization, and adding talent is what's key. I am, however, in favor of risking being awful at some spots during a rebuild while giving upside guys a chance rather than settling for mediocre. My question is, after listing all of those types of moves that turned out in your initial post, are you?

[tmwiese55]

If anything it proves that older higher priced mediocre veterans often don't outperform young players getting their shot.

[Bombers]

And with all that you're still missing top end starting pitching which is the difference in getting from low 70s to legit contender.

I agree with what Monty said. And in light of what tbwiesse is saying, what if I would have told you

 

Our 4 of our 5 starters would look like:

 

* Jimmy Nelson - 32 starts, 5.12 ERA

* Wily Perlta - 31 starts, sent to AAA during year, and finish with a 4.83 ERA

* Matt Garza - 19 starts with a 4.33 ERA

* Chase Anderson - 31 starts with a 5.09 ERA

 

We couldn't have gone for it if we wanted to this year. Those 4 alone would keep us from the playoffs with horrible pitching in 113 starts. Even with Guerra (3.70 ERA) and Davies (3.89 era) pitching well in 48 starts. This team wasn't even close to sniffing 500 even with keeping Segura and Davis much less making the playoffs. And as I have been saying, this team isn't even close to 500 for the 2017 season. Until this team gets some real starting pitching, we will continue to be a sub 500 team. So count me on the side that is all in on the continuous trading of players to find an awesome starting 5.

[pacopete4]

* Jimmy Nelson - 32 starts, 5.12 ERA

* Wily Perlta - 31 starts, sent to AAA during year, and finish with a 4.83 ERA

* Matt Garza - 19 starts with a 4.33 ERA

* Chase Anderson - 31 starts with a 5.09 ERA

 

 

Where did you get your numbers? They all are off from the ERA's I'm seeing. Not saying your point isn't right but just unclear on the numbers thing.

[MrTPlush]

* Jimmy Nelson - 32 starts, 5.12 ERA

* Wily Perlta - 31 starts, sent to AAA during year, and finish with a 4.83 ERA

* Matt Garza - 19 starts with a 4.33 ERA

* Chase Anderson - 31 starts with a 5.09 ERA

 

 

Where did you get your numbers? They all are off from the ERA's I'm seeing. Not saying your point isn't right but just unclear on the numbers thing.

 

He listed their FIP not ERA.

[dlk9s]

If we'd known all that, would the narrative coming from ownership that they had no chance the next couple years so lets dismantle the roster and start over make sense?

http://i.imgur.com/hP9Ri.gif

[And That]

If I had told you what the Powerball numbers were in July 2015, you'd be rich.

[FVBrewerFan]

What if I told you I would still rather rebuild then squeak in as WC this year, get killed in the playoffs, and delay the process of becoming a legitimate contender another three years.

[pacopete4]

If I had told you what the Powerball numbers were in July 2015, you'd be rich.

 

 

After reading the first post, there's no guarantee that he buys the ticket.

[bork]

What if I told you I would still rather rebuild then squeak in as WC this year, get killed in the playoffs, and delay the process of becoming a legitimate contender another three years.

 

Yes. I don't want the Brewers to be the Herb Kohl Bucks. Patch together a team good enough to get the 8th playoff spot and get swept in the first round.