You're Doug Melvin & you take (insert name) at #5

[batman]

I see an good-hitting metal bat guy who struggled with wood.

 

I don't put as much weight on his Cape performance, I guess. It was only 50 at-bats and you've gotta remember that the league's batting average there is just a bit over .200 - lots of guys struggle to hit. Khalil Greene hit .211 and Charles Thomas hit .206 there in 1999, for example (just a quick glance at the archived stats). The guy is absolutely destroying the NCAA and he's playing at one of the premier programs in the country.

 

Looking at his swing, I think I see the hitch that could be problematic. It was most noticable when he didn't swing at a pitch in the batting cage - he has quite a bit of a elbow flicker out and the back in before he swings, which makes him late getting the bat through the zone. He has quick hands, as he shows on defense, but he has way too much movement at the plate to get away with it effectively at the next level without some pretty big adjustments.

 

To me that's just a loading technique, not really a "hitch"... he does it before he swings, not during the swing (which is what I assumed scouts were referring to). I agree that the little circle he does with his hands isn't ideal, but there are a lot of players who use similar loading techniques. Heck, the Brewers taught Rickie Weeks to do something similar because they said his hands were too fast. He might indeed have to eliminate that, but there are very few hitters with the kind of bat speed that Braun has... it's not like he's doing a Cecil Fielder-style double-clutch.

 

He also doesn't loft the ball much from what I've seen of him, and that'll get worse with the wood bat. I wouldn't touch him with the 5th pick after seeing the video.

 

That video doesn't really do him justice... I've seen him play probably a dozen times on TV this year and about that many times over the past two seasons and he has always hit. He's very good at taking whatever the pitcher gives him... I've seen him mash first-pitch fastballs about 200 times, I think, but he'll also work the count and go to the opposite field if that's what the at-bat requires.

 

And I have to disagree with you re: the loft issue... he hits a ton of line drives and hard flyballs, but just not very many towering popups/flyballs with a lot of backspin. He seems to make solid contact almost every time, and that indicates to me that he has the outstanding hand-eye coordination that will translate well into the pros.

 

I might buy the hitch argument if he was more of a Branyan/McPherson type hitter in college, but Braun is a high-average, solid-contact guy who doesn't strike out very much. And he's not just dinking and dunking balls over the infield... he's a legitimate slugger with line drive power to all fields.

 

For me, the question has always been whether he could remain at third-base or shortstop. Having seen him play quite a bit, I really think he could be fine at the hot corner... he's nothing compared to Zimmerman but he's not a whole lot worse than what I've seen from Gordon, who generally is thought of as an okay or even good defender. And since Braun is very fast and seems to have great baseball instincts, I'm pretty confident that he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments to excel as a pro.

 

As if it wasn't already obvious, I really like Braun. I'd opt for Gordon or Zimmerman (maybe) or Romero ahead of him, but that's it. I don't dislike Tulo or Maybin, and actually would be very happy with either of those guys, but Braun is a special, special hitter and I place a lot more emphasis on what a guy has actually done versus what he could potentially do than many other people. That's just an individual preference, but next to Gordon there isn't another NCAA hitter with the performance record of Braun.

 

$.02,

~Bill

[950opsLHcatcher]

Khalil Greene hit .211 and Charles Thomas hit .206 there in 1999, for example (just a quick glance at the archived stats).

 

I guess I'd want more inspiration than Greene or Charles Thomas (!) when it comes to pimping a player. If he just didn't hit with a wood bat, that's worrisome. 50 AB isn't a whole lot, but if he's supposed to be destroying the ball, he should be destroying the ball. And the comment about hitting very well against NCAA pitching doesn't really hold a lot of water - lots of guys have hit well against NCAA pitching (even guys at top programs) and not done jack in the minors, much less the majors. Why? I think it has a lot to do with the metal bats, which brings me back to my worry about him not making good contact with the wood.

 

To me that's just a loading technique, not really a "hitch"... he does it before he swings, not during the swing (which is what I assumed scouts were referring to).

 

The difference between what you're saying and what I'm seeing is that the circle is part of the swing - there's no gap between it and the swing itself. Successful hitters in the bigs with lots of movement in their swings stop the movement before their swing - Braun doesn't. In essence, his swing turns into a figure eight because the circle is in reaction to the pitch, not a timing thing. Pre-swing motion doesn't adjust to the pitch being thrown - his wrist motion seems to be doing that. I think that's a pretty huge swing problem, that can be made up for with a metal bat and quick hands. Could he be successful with it? Maybe. Would I want to take that chance with the 5th pick? Nope. I'd take him sometime after 10.

 

He might indeed have to eliminate that, but there are very few hitters with the kind of bat speed that Braun has...

 

I'll give you the bat speed part, but I don't want any part of a college hitter whose swing you're going to have to rework. If he was a HS player, sure. If Rogers had been a college pitcher with his old HS mechanics, would you have taken him where the Brewers took him?

 

And I have to disagree with you re: the loft issue... he hits a ton of line drives and hard flyballs, but just not very many towering popups/flyballs with a lot of backspin.

 

Exactly - he's a strong gap hitter with a metal bat. I don't know how he's going to turn out once he switches to wood, but he's certainly not going to be hitting the ball any harder right away. Going back to your Khalil Greene reference, I'd be fine with him if he were a SS, but he's not. He may not even be a third baseman.

 

For me, the question has always been whether he could remain at third-base or shortstop.

 

If he has to move to left field, this would be an even worse pick. At least Zimmerman/Tulowitski/Gordon can all play in the infield without a doubt. And at least Maybin is actually an outfielder. Players with no real position bother me. Looking at the Brewers' defense lately, I'd rather they not continue the trend of trying to find new positions for guys later on. It has already backfired on Hart and Nelson.

 

I'd opt for Gordon or Zimmerman (maybe) or Romero ahead of him, but that's it.

 

One of those three guys will be there when the Brewers pick, so this won't even be an issue, or at least it shouldn't be. Braun's a first round talent, but he's not a #5 talent, IMO. You can't have pretty big questions about a swing hitch and potential defensive position with a college guy with the 5th pick in the draft. If the Brewers do pick him, I'll wish him luck, but I honestly think it won't work out very well for them. Jack Z. is bound to slip up sometime, and this may be it.

[Mass Haas]

It will be (and should be) Maybin at # 5 unless Gordon somehow falls.

 

There's my non-DFE draft post for 2005 -- back to the Minor League Forum http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif .

[Past Member]

I have seen Braun since high school, he has hit at every level, including with wood. The cape cod season he played hurt and only recovered from his rib injury over the summer.

 

Check the history of the area code game articles, one of only 3 players to hit a home run with wood during his first year. He played are code games in consecutive years, that tells you about his ability to hit with wood. he is bigger stronger and faster sinse those days.

 

If we choose him he will be a huge surprise as he hits better with wood than he gets credit for. Defensively he is a much better athlete than most at his position.

[batman]

Great discussion, Toby... I feel like we're in a virtual pre-draft scouting meeting. Which one of us is 'sposed to throw the chair? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

RE: The Cape

 

I guess I'd want more inspiration than Greene or Charles Thomas (!) when it comes to pimping a player.

 

Like I said, I just looked at the oldest archived stats and found some future big leaguers. My point is just that hitters struggle in the Cape Cod League.

 

If he just didn't hit with a wood bat, that's worrisome. 50 AB isn't a whole lot, but if he's supposed to be destroying the ball, he should be destroying the ball.

 

But he didn't hit much below the league average and it was a very small sample. It takes even good hitters some time to get acclimated to wood bats.

 

And the comment about hitting very well against NCAA pitching doesn't really hold a lot of water - lots of guys have hit well against NCAA pitching (even guys at top programs) and not done jack in the minors, much less the majors. Why? I think it has a lot to do with the metal bats, which brings me back to my worry about him not making good contact with the wood.

 

That's true, but I just don't think Braun fits that profile. He's a high-average, good-contact guy... he hits the ball on the sweet spot consistently and hits a lot of line drives. There's no reason to expect that he'll be unable to do the same with wood... it's guys that don't make solid contact that get helped the most by metal, IMO.

 

The difference between what you're saying and what I'm seeing is that the circle is part of the swing - there's no gap between it and the swing itself. Successful hitters in the bigs with lots of movement in their swings stop the movement before their swing - Braun doesn't. In essence, his swing turns into a figure eight because the circle is in reaction to the pitch, not a timing thing. Pre-swing motion doesn't adjust to the pitch being thrown - his wrist motion seems to be doing that. I think that's a pretty huge swing problem, that can be made up for with a metal bat and quick hands. Could he be successful with it? Maybe. Would I want to take that chance with the 5th pick? Nope. I'd take him sometime after 10.

 

We don't really disagree about this, I don't think... I had just assumed (wrongly, in retrospect) that the "hitch" scouts were talking about was a hole in his swing, not the timing mechanism. He might indeed have to cut down on that, but I don't think that's a big deal. He has been able to adjust to pitchers that change speeds very well in college, and his strong wrists and great bat speed make me think that his success isn't just a product of titanium.

 

I'll give you the bat speed part, but I don't want any part of a college hitter whose swing you're going to have to rework. If he was a HS player, sure. If Rogers had been a college pitcher with his old HS mechanics, would you have taken him where the Brewers took him?

 

I wouldn't have taken him in either case. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

You're right, though... all things being equal, I'd prefer someone with excellent mechanics and results (like Mr. Go®d(on)). I just think the change(s) that Braun will need to make are relatively minor, if he needs to make them at all. I remain unconvinced that NCAA pitchers have been unable to exploit his "hitch" but professional pitchers will. It would be one thing if he had been striking out a lot and getting beat by top pitchers, but that isn't the case.

 

Exactly - he's a strong gap hitter with a metal bat. I don't know how he's going to turn out once he switches to wood, but he's certainly not going to be hitting the ball any harder right away. Going back to your Khalil Greene reference, I'd be fine with him if he were a SS, but he's not. He may not even be a third baseman.

 

If he can't play third, then he loses a lot of value (see below).

 

I think the best comparisons I can come up with are Jeff Kent and David Wright, although obviously those are great players... strong forearms and wrists, very quick bat, solid contact and lots of line drives.

 

If he has to move to left field, this would be an even worse pick. At least Zimmerman/Tulowitski/Gordon can all play in the infield without a doubt.

 

I agree, but I don't buy the "he can't play third" line. Like I said, I feel that he compares favorably to Gordon... he might be a little worse, but not a whole lot. Zimmerman looks like a shortstop playing third, and is obviously in a different league defensively. Braun is a better hitter, though.

 

And at least Maybin is actually an outfielder. Players with no real position bother me. Looking at the Brewers' defense lately, I'd rather they not continue the trend of trying to find new positions for guys later on. It has already backfired on Hart and Nelson.

 

Perhaps, but I have more faith in his defensive ability. He played shortstop at Miami for two years... Corey Hart or Brad Nelson he's not.

 

One of those three guys will be there when the Brewers pick, so this won't even be an issue, or at least it shouldn't be.

 

If the first four selections are Upton, Gordon, Tulo, and Zimmerman, the Brewers will have their choice of Braun, Maybin, and Romero. I don't think they'll take Romero, so it's down to Braun vs. Maybin. I'd prefer Braun.

 

Braun's a first round talent, but he's not a #5 talent, IMO. You can't have pretty big questions about a swing hitch and potential defensive position with a college guy with the 5th pick in the draft. If the Brewers do pick him, I'll wish him luck, but I honestly think it won't work out very well for them. Jack Z. is bound to slip up sometime, and this may be it.

 

We'll just have to wait and see... I'll bet you a cheese sandwich that Braun (barring injury) is in the big leagues by the end of the 2007 season. Deal? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

I've mentioned this before, but I'm split on Braun, because I love what I've seen from him, and I think he has a great baseball body and great tools, particularly for a college player, and he has produced since stepping on Miami's campus. But watching him hit, I do have concerns about him hitting as a pro. I can't really put a finger on it, because he does have a really quick bat that can compensate for just about any mechanical flaw.

 

Defensively, the guy had so many errors to start the season I think it gets lost that his 14 errors (last time I checked) really tapered off as the season progresses. I want to say 10-12 of those errors came over the first month or two. Really, I would move him back to SS as a pro, at least to start, as he has the pure athleticism to handle it, and he really reminds me of Nomar Garciaparra. I don't think the Brewers handle him this way, but I would.

 

And being able to move quickly definitely is a huge plus. As much as I like Maybin, and as much as he makes sense for our pick, he is going to take time to develop. There's nothing wrong with that of course, but there does seem to be more of a sense of urgency with our pick.

[Never Outhustled]

While it would obviously take Maybin longer to get to the Bigs than Braun, I think he'll move faster than some suggest. He won't be a slow mover like Krynzel. Maybins bat is just so much better coming in than Krynzels was. Maybin enters as just as good of hitter as Prince was, and I'd expect him to move just as fast. The other parts of the game, like tracking flyballs and running the bases, are things that come natural to Maybin. His self-discipline and work ethic (things that Prince doesn't really have) will help him polish his skills quickly.

[statman0007]

Like most people I would be ecstatic if Gordon fell, but I just don't see it happening. I really hope the Brewers don't reach for Zimmerman though. I don't believe he's anywhere near top 5 talent. He screams Sean Bouroghs to me. I really think we need a power bat at third base. I predict that we will take Maybin and I would be happy with the pick. He dosen't deserve the Griffey comparisons, but I project him to be a Mike Cameron type player.

[dadofandrew]

I have to agree with Bill that Braun looks pretty impressive, not sure how a comparison to Sean Burroughs can occur when the guy had a .723 SLG, and has the athletic ability to play SS. .400 BA with 30 walks in 200 AB's is enough to make me a believer.

 

Of course, I've heard Maybin is a lock if still there...

[950opsLHcatcher]

Bill - I was thinking the same thing about the scouting meeting. I guess people really do disagree. We can hash it out at FanFest. I'll bring the chairs. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

But he didn't hit much below the league average and it was a very small sample. It takes even good hitters some time to get acclimated to wood bats.

 

But, he still hit below the league average, and if it takes him some time to adapt to wood bats, where does that leave his development? For instance, both Fielder and Hardy both hit well with wood before being drafted, and they were high school players. If it might take a guy like Braun 3-4 years to get to the bigs, would it really be as good an investment instead of either Zimmerman (who might get there in under 2 years), or Maybin (who might get there in 4-5, but with higher potential)?

 

There's no reason to expect that he'll be unable to do the same with wood... it's guys that don't make solid contact that get helped the most by metal, IMO.

 

In my opinion, guys that don't hit well with wood, or at least league average with wood in their first exposure, shouldn't go #5 if they are a college guy. I think there is enough reason to expect he'll struggle with wood, maybe not right away, but once he gets to AA or so.

 

He might indeed have to cut down on that, but I don't think that's a big deal. He has been able to adjust to pitchers that change speeds very well in college, and his strong wrists and great bat speed make me think that his success isn't just a product of titanium.

 

I want to call you out a little on this - I don't think you can compare college pitching and metal bats with AA pitching and wood bats. The wrist motion counteracts his hand speed, which I will fully admit it excellent. If you were confident that you could change his swing quickly and easily so that he didn't have that extra movement and that his swing was none the worse for it, I'd go for him. However, as much as I like Reid Nichols and his staff...

 

I'd prefer someone with excellent mechanics and results

 

I'd prefer someone who either has excellent mechanics and results right now or is young enough to be worked into having excellent mechanics and results. To me, that's either Zimmerman or Maybin, assuming Gordon isn't available, talking strictly hitters. Braun falls too much in the middle for my tastes. Like I said, if we were drafting at #10, sure, I'd take a flier on him.

 

I agree, but I don't buy the "he can't play third" line.

 

Looking at him in his brief scouting video, he looks decent at third, but his footwork is a little tricky. His arm is good, but if the Brewers already think, for whatever reason, that he'll have to be moved, he has little value to me as a #5 left fielder.

 

Perhaps, but I have more faith in his defensive ability. He played shortstop at Miami for two years... Corey Hart or Brad Nelson he's not.

 

To counterpoint, Nelson was a third baseman and Hart was a shortstop in HS. I know it isn't the same as Miami, but it's not like Braun has been flawless, or even in Zimmerman's league, there. And now both Hart and Nelson have been struggling to learn new positions. I think it is a salient point that defensive proficiency aids development almost much as offensive proficiency. If you don't know where you are playing, or are not comfortable there, it will carry over to the plate. If the Brewers all the sudden decide to switch him to the OF next year, it will affect him, not to mention lessen his value even with the same bat. I don't think the Brewers could have avoided what they did with Nelson (who would have thought they would have drafted Fielder?), but they have screwed Hart. He was a great defensive first baseman, but now between third and the outfield, he's still struggling to play D and hit at the same time.

 

If the first four selections are Upton, Gordon, Tulo, and Zimmerman, the Brewers will have their choice of Braun, Maybin, and Romero. I don't think they'll take Romero, so it's down to Braun vs. Maybin. I'd prefer Braun.

 

I don't think those will be the first four selections. One of those guys will fall, and each of those guys, plus Maybin, I'd take over Braun. I hope Gordon falls, but I couldn't pass up Zimmerman. We need Cirillo #2.

 

I'll bet you a cheese sandwich that Braun (barring injury) is in the big leagues by the end of the 2007 season. Deal?

 

I'll make that a double cheese saying that it'll be 2008, and not with Milwaukee. It's a deal. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Isn't it nice that we're not discussing a prep righty with the #5 pick? This year I just feel that everyone is going to be happy with whomever the Brewers pick. Like I've said before, Jack Z. and company are in a great position. We can wait and see who falls, if anyone, and if not, there should be at least 2-3 solid players to choose from, Braun included.

[Never Outhustled]

I have to agree with Bill that Braun looks pretty impressive, not sure how a comparison to Sean Burroughs can occur when the guy had a .723 SLG, and has the athletic ability to play SS

 

Zimmerman is the player some are comparing to Burroughs, not Braun. Braun is more like Rolenhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Isn't it nice that we're not discussing a prep righty with the #5 pick? This year I just feel that everyone is going to be happy with whomever the Brewers pick. Like I've said before, Jack Z. and company are in a great position. We can wait and see who falls, if anyone, and if not, there should be at least 2-3 solid players to choose from, Braun included.

 

I agree totally. It just seems like our options this year at #5 are so much better than last year.

Patrick how would Maybin and Braun fit into last years raft class.

[colbyjack]

I would probably put Maybin 3rd last year as well, behind Weaver & Drew, and he could have been a strong candidate to go 1st overall given the signability issues.

[bjkrautk]

Quote:

---

Isn't it nice that we're not discussing a prep righty with the #5 pick?

---

 

Ssshhh....don't give them any ideas! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I've been holding off on posting a final 5 on this thread, but with the actual draft 2 days away, I don't think my thoughts are going to change that much:

 

Upton

Gordon

Zimmerman

Tulowitzki

Romero

 

Awfully tempted to go with Maybin 5th....but my sensabilities tend to side with the college lefty over the HS outfielder. I also can't help but wonder how many of games scouts saw him pitch in 2004, considering they drafted Prettyman from the same school.

[homer]

Did you guys hear the pre-game on Sunday? Jim Callis was on and said that Seattle may take Clement 3rd which Callis thought opened the door for the Brewers to take Tulowitzki.

[PrimetimeHater]

I'm definitely rooting for Zimmerman to get drafted...maybe I'll get my wish this year for once. Plays good defense, good speed, good plate discipline. I'm not really that worried about his power...he could probably hit 15 or 20 dingers in a major league season if he made it.

[colbyjack]

According to BA, Washington taking Zimmerman is probably about as big of a lock as you're going to get. They reportedly brought Maybin in for a workout as well, but any team would be foolish not to have a backup plan. I agree, if Zimmerman is there, he makes too much sense, but unfortunately it doesn't sound as though he will be.

[PrimetimeHater]

Crud...oh well...I guess if I lived with the Brewers not taking Sowers I can live with someone else.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Brew is making a HUGE mistake if they don't take Hochevar or Pelfrey. Colby, if you can project these guys to make the big club it should be a no-brainer as opposed to taking a "toolsey"

OF. It's too difficult to find starting pitching and we have prospects at almost every position besides 3b & C. Fill those needs later in the draft, PLEASE!!!!!!

[scoop53714]

Put me on record as wanting to NOT select a pitcher. It is just way to hard to cultivate a pitcher from the draft to the starting rotation. I feel Melvin needs to go out and get the best offensive player available and add him to the Weeks-Fielder plan and see what happens. Getting a pitcher from the draft to the mound at Miller Park is like trying to kick an egg across a parking lot. I think its going to be either Gordon, Braun or Maybin.

[colbyjack]

Are you prepared to not see a guy like Pelfrey or Hochevar sign until next spring? Both are Boras advisees, and both are going to take a lot to sign. Given the trends of how long it takes college pitchers to sign, much less those advised by Boras, we're not even going to see these players signed as Brewers for a long, long time. Personally, I'm prepared for that, and maybe you are too KC, but I think a lot of people would have a problem with that. Maybe not now, but they'll start sweating in August, then September, then before the end of the year, etc.

 

I entered the spring with Hochevar as my favorite for the fifth overall pick, hoping he would fall that far. Without a doubt, it appears as though both Hochevar and Pelfrey will be available when we pick. Gord Ash is already on record stating that they probably won't pick a Boras player, particularly a pitcher, pointing out that the risk often isn't worth the reward. Not only does it take a long time to sign, but then you have to deal with arbitration each and every year, assuming such a player makes the big leagues, and when such a player reaches free agency you can almost be assured that they will not stay in town, unless the parent teams pays handsomely to make that happen.

 

And there's no immediate pressure to fill "needs." That's not what the draft is about. As soon as the Brewers try to fill their future 3B or C need, the sooner they fail themselves. That doesn't mean that taking a 3B or a catcher in the first round is a bad idea, since there are a few players at those positions that fit for the 5th overall pick.

[BillScottCanRake]

I have never really had a favorite pick, but I am really starting to get a serious man crush on Maybin. It doesn't sound like he'll be the pick, but if Milwaukee calls his name I'll be as excited as I have ever been about a pick.

 

Which pretty much guarantees Maybin won't be drafted by Milwaukee.

[brewswinga2]

what time does the draft start tommorow?

[Past Member]

How's the hitch look now?