Way Too Early 2017 Predictions/Hopes

[MKE81]

I'll only speak for myself on why I think Rivera has a locked spot with Kirk not on the team. I do think Braun/Puig trade happens and the starting OF is set. I wouldn't be shocked if we only have 1 backup OF to start and I think it'll be Reed. Santana/Broxton/Puig are playing 150 games barring injury. Reed is a cheap 23yr old who plays all 3 spots but will get on base at a much higher clip than Kirk while also bringing speed to the table. Kirk won't change as a player - you know what you're getting, he's terrible away from Miller Park and he's more expensive. Reed could still manage to get 150 AB and flash some value that makes him a great backup for us or potential trade bait. More importantly, Brinson will no doubt be up at some point, which then puts the OF situation at Santana/Brinson/Puig/Broxton + Reed then. This is why I see no point in having Kirk back because he isn't remotely close to being a starter nor someone we can trade for good prospects when needing to clear space for others coming up in the system. There's no PT for him to bring up his value. Combine all of that with Perez being able to play all 3 OF spots, which is another reason I don't see us starting out with 5 OF.

 

Regarding Rivera, I do think Scooter is traded before the season with Villar shifting to 2b. Right now I have Perez starting at 3b but only because that's the only option that makes sense with the current players. I do think we'll end up with another veteran IF who can play 3b though. Rivera is a backup who can play 2b, SS, 3b at a high level defensively and that by itself matters greatly. His hitting is what it is but you're not asking him to give you 350 AB. Arcia/Villar/Carter will be playing 150 games barring injury so you literally just need someone to fill in on occasion or late in a game if the starter is removed for precautionary reasons or something odd. Rivera can do that. Plus he's young and cheap.

[FVBrewerFan]

I see 2017 as a continuation of the 2016 season. They need the young pitchers catch up to where they are with position players at the MLB level. That's why trading any of Garza, Nelson, Anderson, Guerra, Peralta doesn't seem very likely. You "need" those guys for another year to eat innings, until Hader and maybe even Woody arrives. Injuries happen, poor performance happens, so you really need 7-8 starting pitchers anyhow. Plus, I can't imagine getting anything worthwhile back for any of those SP.

 

2017 is also about further evaluating what we have in Villar, Broxton, Santana, and Arcia. If they all have really good seasons the line-up is halfway done. Throw in Brinson if he comes up and produces, and we're really getting closer. A line-up where all 3 of those guys are plus defenders and all have speed, OBP, some pop.

 

Record? No idea. But 2017 will be the first season we'll know how close this team is to being a true contender. As always, most of that will depend on what happens with the SP.

[SandyTolan]

This is fun. I'll play, too.

 

Gone: Braun, Thornburg (for a serious haul), Gennett, Maldonado, Carter, Nelson, Nieuwenhuis, Anderson ,Torres, Garza

 

Arrived: Puig, McCarthy, DeLeon, Bellinger, awesome 3B prospect ready to slot in, others in AA/AAA, possibly including a top C prospect

 

Lineup:

 

Villar 2B

Broxton CF

Puig

Santana

Bellinger

Awesome 3B prospect

Arcia

Susac

P

 

SP (by mid-2017 -- note the jump from AA, which seems to be part of Stearns' emerging plan):

Guerra

DeLeon

Davies

Woodruff

Hader (edit! Not Ortiz yet)

 

Pen:

Peralta (closer)

Knebel

Blazek (rebuild his value)

Suter

Barnes

Jungman

Cravy

 

Bench:

Perez (super-utility)

Wren

Pinto

Piña

Rivera

[FVBrewerFan]

That would be very aggressive for Ortiz, I would be shocked if he's up at all in 2017, other than maybe a token start at the end of the season or something. What about Hader?

[adambr2]

My thoughts go beyond 2017 in a couple cases, but here goes:

 

STAFF:

 

The only guy I'd say needs to be gone yesterday is Eddie Sedar. Counsell is the guy right now, and that's fine. Whether or not he remains the guy when this team is ready for the next step, we'll see.

 

 

LINEUP/BENCH:

 

In the OF, I think your future guys are Brinson and Broxton for sure. Braun is the best trade candidate we have. I know there's sentimental value to keeping him around, I get that, but now isn't the time to be sentimental. He's had a great year, he isn't part of our future, it's time to cash in.

 

I do like Santana, but I'm not exactly sure where he fits in yet. I'm not crazy about his D, especially with so many outfielders in the system. I'd like to see how his glove would play at 1st. But I'm not sure that's in the cards. I'm still hoping Phillips will end up as that 3rd OFer, for now. Obviously the hope is for Ray to rise quickly and become a star, but he's still too early to project. I think Cordell will be a very good 4th OFer.

 

As for the IF, we're set at SS with Arcia, and for now, I would send Villar to 2nd and trade Gennett now. Diaz should end up hopefully being our 2B of the future, but in all likelihood we don't need to worry about that until 2019. It's possible Villar ends up at 3B then, but I like how his bat plays much better in the middle. We'll see. Perez is our supersub for now, which is a good role for him.

 

At catcher, I'm hoping to see Susac get a crack at the every day job next year and see how he does. I see no reason not to. It's still a rebuilding year. I haven't given up on Nottingham, either.

 

 

PITCHING STAFF: I'm really not concerned with building a bullpen, I think that will come pretty naturally. I think there are a lot of high upside arms on our team/system that project to be pretty good relievers if they don't make it as starters. Not to mention a lot of arms like Medeiros and Lopez that aren't panning out now that could maybe have their careers salvaged in the pen. Knebel and Barnes will be here a long time, Marinez looks like a pretty solid multi-inning righty and I think Bickford might make a hell of a closer if he doesn't make it as a starter, kind of like the Thornburg route. Speaking of Thornburg, I'd certainly entertain offers for him and Torres and bite on any overpay, otherwise be content to wait and see if we can get an inflated market for relievers again next deadline.

 

The rotation might be what determines it all. If it comes together right, I think we have a World Series contender in a few years. If it doesn't, coming out of the rebuild as soon as hoped will be difficult.

 

We don't really have a surefire ace prospect in our system. The 2017 draft is supposed to be loaded with arms early on, so hopefully we can find ours. What we do have are numerous guys who have #2 upside. Hader, Ortiz, Bickford, and Woodruff are coming soon, maybe even Wang again. If we can get a couple #2 types out of the lot and at least a back end guy, we should be in good shape. There are also guys at the lower levels like Ponce and Diplan, who are too far away to be projectable, but have upside.

Some of these guys won't pan out, but we're playing the numbers game, and I'm confident it will work in the end.

 

One last thing...the FA market for starting pitching is very dry this offseason, so it's something to keep an eye on. Obviously anything would do for Garza, including salary relief, but if you can get a high prospect for Guerra, and maybe even a decent prospect for Anderson, it's definitely something we should be listening to. In my opinion we should always look to take advantage of inefficiencies in the market for buyers as sellers, like we did trading Will Smith.

[TURBO]

STAFF:

 

The only guy I'd say needs to be gone yesterday is Eddie Sedar. Counsell is the guy right now, and that's fine. Whether or not he remains the guy when this team is ready for the next step, we'll see.

 

 

 

Oh my gosh, YES!

 

He needs to be held accountable for his horrible 3B coaching. It is time to cut him loose. Doesn't matter how well liked he is, doesn't matter that he is a great guy, he is hurting the team. Maybe a demotion is in order rather than a pink slip, but if he is back at 3B next year, I am going to seriously wonder what is going on...

[LouisEly]

Yeah, Sedar needs to be "reassigned within the organization"

[SandyTolan]

That would be very aggressive for Ortiz, I would be shocked if he's up at all in 2017, other than maybe a token start at the end of the season or something. What about Hader?

 

 

NO KIDDING! Totally forgot Hader. Yes, I took out Ortiz and put Hader in there.

[LouisEly]

Under the "hopes", I hope that the Brewers seriously explore a trade similar to the Cashner-for-Rizzo trade, where they move some starting pitching for a young big LH bat at 1B or 3B (or both). I don't think the Cubs regret that deal and trading away young pitching one bit.

 

If that can involve Guerra, Anderson, or Peralta (or better yet, Braun), great. But looking at minor league depth, the Brewers have Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Bickford, Diplan, Ponce, Lopez, Peralta, D. Williams, etc., from which to draw upon (on top of Burnes, Diaz, Wang, Webb, etc.). The first two are untouchable IMO, but the rest are open game. I think Bickford profiles fairly similarly to Cashner, if that's what it takes.

 

The organizational hole is at corner IF. It's Erceg, who I love but is a ways off, and no one. Whether it's one pitcher, two B/C pitchers, or a pitcher plus an OF, this is the #1 thing that will make me jump for joy this offseason.

[logan82]

The Cubs could go out and buy to of the rotation pitching. We can't.

[MNBrew]

Not to pick on you specifically, because others have a similar sentiment, but why think Rivera is a shoe-in yet have a strong desire for Nieuwenhuis to be gone? They seem to be somewhat similar players - Nieuwenhuis is a pretty good defender with position flexibility and not a great hitter for his position. I'd be shocked if Rivera ever posts a .630 OPS in the majors because his minor league career OPS is .632. Rivera's career minor league OBP is .287, whereas Nieuwenhuis' career major league OBP is .313.

 

KN is no starter, but if Rivera is a shoe-in for a backup IF position why not KN for a backup OF position?

I wasn't actively thinking this as I typed, but I realized there were two caveats in the thinking behind my post (#40 in this thread) to which your response here was directed:

 

1. I wasn't going to speculate on who might come back to MIL in any trade.

 

2. Similarly, I also wasn't going to speculate on whomever else the Brewers might acquire by means other than trades.

 

Thus, Rivera is currently the closest-to-MLB-ready middle IF the Brewers have in the minors (on the fringes of being regular 25-man roster "piece"). Maybe that clarification helps establish a clearer context for my comments. A zillion things could cause his status to change. But I have no idea what the specifics of any of those may be, so I just left the speculation alone.

 

As someone else said, Nieuwenhuis has been around the MLB block enough to be a known commodity. He's had plenty of chances, and plenty of guys are coming up behind him. Rivera's still in more of a "getting his feet wet" stage, though he's also been generally unspectacular enough that it may not take much for him to be made redundant or included in a trade as something of a "round out the deal" throw-in.

[LouisEly]

The Cubs could go out and buy to of the rotation pitching. We can't.

You can't argue that this was not a great trade for the Cubs. If young pitching is over-valued and young corner IF under-valued, you take advantage of the inefficiency of the market and make the trade.

 

And so far the Cubs have bought one TOR-type starting pitcher, Jon Lester. Hendricks and Arrietta were traded for.

[markedman5]

I predict the coaching staff will return intact.

 

Adam McCalvyVerified account

‏@AdamMcCalvy

Brewers coaching staff returning intact for 2017, Stearns announces

[adambr2]

I'm not totally surprised, but I really don't understand how they can justify Ed Sedar keeping his position every year.

[FVBrewerFan]

I have no problem keeping Sedar, but move him to 1B. Every 3B coach makes mistakes, but Sedar is over the top every season. We're not talking about 50/50 plays, it's how often someone is out by at least several steps. That is not aggressive, it is stupid.

[adambr2]

I'm more excited about this team than I have been in a long time and I'm sure I will be going into 2017.

 

OF: I really, really like Broxton. Best case scenario I think he's capable of a 20/60 HR/SB season with gold glove defense. While he probably doesn't hit that mark and likely won't be quite as good as he was in the 2nd half, I think he's a 3 WAR player. Brinson is probably ready, but I think you've got to wait until midseason for service time reasons. Santana probably holds down RF and we end up with a Broxton/Brinson/Santana OF after the break if Braun is traded.

 

IF: Unless blown away by an offer for Carter, no reason not to bring him back. I hope to see Scooter traded and Villar go to 2nd full time, where I think his defense is best suited and his offense will play very well there. I agree with others about possibly seeing a name we might not know yet at 3rd next year. I prefer Perez as a super utility guy.

 

Just think how valuable Villar, Broxton, and Guerra are to our team, and these guys weren't even on anyone's radar a year ago. If we add 3 more guys along the same lines in 2017, we could contend sooner than people think.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There will be no long concession lines at Miller Park in 2017 after the planned capital upgrades take place.

 

Some on this board will blame the short concession lines on a young corner OF who arguably struggles against RHP and a young AA catcher/1B who will be raking while repeating the level, wishing Brian McCann was behind the dish everyday for the home 9 and wondering why the Brewers' FO didn't pay 80 Million dollars to sign Jered Weaver on a 4-year deal.

[clancyphile]

My hopes:

1. The Brewers do not trade Braun for the sake of a deal, especially not for Puig.

2. The Brewers focus on seeing what they have in the outfield and among their young starters (Suter, Hader, Wang, Woodruff, Wilkerson?)

3. The Brewers sell high on Guerra, Carter, Gennett, Anderson, and Garza to get some more lottery tickets (or gems like Perez and Broxton).

[adambr2]

A couple tidbits today:

 

1) The Brewers aren't sure they want to tender Carter an offer in arbitration.

 

2) The Brewers see Villar as their 2nd baseman, not at 3rd. Have to think Scooter is unlikely to return in 2017.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/heymans-latest-chisox-santana-cozart-rockies-davis-brewers-smith.html?fv-home=true&post-id=74445

[pacopete4]

Very happy about #2