Way Too Early 2017 Predictions/Hopes

[MKE81]

I am going off the assumption Garza is gone somehow and Braun ends up getting traded off to the Dodgers. If Braun isn't traded he goes to LF and Santana back to RF. If Garza isn't traded someone else will be and he will take that spot in the rotation. Susac is my starting catcher as Maldonado is clearly a back-up at this point. I won't even attempt to guess the bullpen or bench because it is a waste of time this far out.

 

Starting Rotation:

 

1)Davies

2)Guerra

3)Nelson

4)Anderson

5)Peralta

 

Positional Players:

 

C-Andrew Susac

1B-Chris Carter

2B-Jonathan Villar

SS-Orlando Arcia

3B-Hernan Perez

LF- Domingo Santana

CF- Keon Broxton

RF- Yasiel Puig

While I did list a bench and pen I've already changed it twice, and will probably do so again now after thinking about some other things, but I absolutely agree with you. It makes more sense just to predict the starters given the bench changes annually due to later acquisitions. Pen as well even though I think it's a safe bet to accurately list half our pen for next year. I have this same lineup for starters except with McCarthy also listed as a 6th starter.

[clancyphile]

My hopes for a 25-man roster:

 

2b: Villar

3b: H. Perez

lf: Braun

1b: Santana

cf: Brinson

rf: Broxton

c: Susac/Pina

ss: Arcia

bench: Pina/Susac, Rivera, Cordell, Pinto, Reed

rotation: Nelson, Peralta, Davies, Suter, Jungmann

bullpen: Thornberg, Knebel, Marinez, Barnes, Cravy, Magnifico, Dillard

 

Traded: Carter, Gennett, Garza, Guerra, Anderson, Maldonado

Released: Capuano, Rowen, Boyer, Torres, among others

 

The big goals for 2017 are twofold:

1. Find out what the Brewers really have in the rotation - therefore, Guerra, Garza, and Anderson get moved for what the team can get, even if just lottery tickets. If there is an injury we see what Hader, Wang, Ortiz, Wilkerson, or others can do.

2. Get in a position to flip players like Nelson and Peralta - hopefully, they rebound and become valuable trade bait - to further bolster the farm system.

[Greenleaf1]

Thanks for actually taking my original post seriously, guys.

 

You're all my people. Having a ton of fun posting in and reading this forum lately.

 

Something I'd actually change about my first post: it wouldn't surprise me if we acquire an infielder to start at 3rd base next year, either with the hope of flipping or as a potential long term solution there. Perez fits better as a super utility guy and since there's nobody really coming up at that position from the minors anytime soon, I don't know if they'd want Perez to be starting every day at 3rd.

[clancyphile]

Thanks for actually taking my original post seriously, guys.

 

You're all my people. Having a ton of fun posting in and reading this forum lately.

 

Something I'd actually change about my first post: it wouldn't surprise me if we acquire an infielder to start at 3rd base next year, either with the hope of flipping or as a potential long term solution there. Perez fits better as a super utility guy and since there's nobody really coming up at that position from the minors anytime soon, I don't know if they'd want Perez to be starting every day at 3rd.

 

I was torn between H. Perez and Ryan Cordell at that spot. I went with Perez because he's shown dramatic improvement from 2015 to 2016, and I think he has more upside.

 

On the next great Brewers team, they're the heart of the bench. But at this point, the only circumstance where I'm okay with Perez on the bench with Cordell, is if Braun were shifted back to third, Carter stayed to play first, putting Santana in left (I would be open if the Brewers acquired another young OF to try out in left or a young first baseman).

 

Otherwise, deal Carter, Braun stays in left, and Santana is at first, and Perez plays third.

[MrTPlush]

I was torn between H. Perez and Ryan Cordell at that spot.

 

Id go Perez on the shear fact Cordell has never played AAA. Puts the odds against him.

[Greenleaf1]

My original post also neglected that Cordell needs to be added to the 40-man this winter. I'm sure there's someone else we could take off easily enough to make room for him though, or just put him on the 40-man instead of one of Wren/Orf/Cooper.

[monty57]

the only circumstance where I'm okay with Perez on the bench with Cordell, is if Braun were shifted back to third,

 

I'd just as soon put Carter at shortstop :-)

[clancyphile]

the only circumstance where I'm okay with Perez on the bench with Cordell, is if Braun were shifted back to third,

 

I'd just as soon put Carter at shortstop :-)

 

Better Braun at third and Carter at short than Yasuil Puig ANYWHERE on the Brewers roster.

[recte44]

Thanks for actually taking my original post seriously, guys.

 

On the next great Brewers team, they're the heart of the bench. But at this point, the only circumstance where I'm okay with Perez on the bench with Cordell, is if Braun were shifted back to third, Carter stayed to play first, putting Santana in left (I would be open if the Brewers acquired another young OF to try out in left or a young first baseman).

 

There are very few certainties in life, things you can absolutely count on. But Clancy never fails to deliver.

 

Year Tm Lg Age Pos G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rdrs Rtot/yr Rdrs/yr RF/9 RF/G lgFld% lgRF9 lgRFG

2007 MIL NL 23 3B 112 112 89 945.1 248 61 161 26 12 .895 -35 -32 -45 -41 2.11 1.98 .954 2.68 2.67

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54599/who-had-the-worst-defensive-season-ever

[DHonks]

Hard to tell. At this point Stearns may choose to hold onto cheap players with high value like Guerra or Villar. Or he may try to test the market for them. If they bring the same guys back, I can see this team being around the same in 2017.

[homer]

Can Bill Hall pitch?

[LouisEly]

Considering Nelson and Peralta had career worst seasons this year and they are still sitting 17th in team ERA for their starters.... I'd say they have upside above 15th for next year.

You left out Jungmann. More to prove your point.

 

I believe the Brewers have one of the top 2nd half SP ERAs in the league, and I believe at one point in September it was #1. From the Positive Post thread, these are the SP ERAs for the 2nd half of the season:

 

Peralta - 2.92

Guerra - 2.29 (only 39 innings)

Anderson - 3.02

Garza - 4.16

Davies - 3.82

Nelson - 6.10

(Leaving out Suter & Jungmann due to small sample sizes)

[LouisEly]

Assumptions - offseason trade Braun, Garza, Torres, one of Maldy/Pina

 

C: Susac, one of Maldy/Pina (trade the other)

1B: Carter

2B: Gennett (hope he is traded, but don't think it will happen)

SS: Arcia

3B: Villar

Bench: Perez, +NRI (Pinto)

 

LF: Santana

CF: Broxton

RF: Puig (or someone who Puig is traded for)

Bench: Wren, +NRI (Reed, KN, or Zach Walters)

 

SP: Peralta, Guerra, Anderson, Davies, Nelson

RP: Thornburg, Barnes, Knebel, Cravy, Marinez, Suter, Blazek

 

Off the 40-man: Rowen, Scahill (hope packaged w/Braun to LA), Boyer, Rivera, Reed, Elmore, Nieuwenhuis, Capuano, Goforth, Cecchini, Wilkins; Pinto depends on roster space

 

Deadline 2017 - trade Guerra, one of Anderson/Nelson, bring up Hader, one of Jungmann/Woodruff

 

Next offseason - trade Puig (after he re-establishes value), other of Anderson/Nelson

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm guessing the 25 man will look pretty similar to how it is now. There's probably a pretty good chance that we could end up with Braun being traded, and end up with Puig/McCarthy, but I think most of the 25 man is here already.

 

I think the catcher position is somewhat open, between Pina, Susac, and Maldonado.

 

I think, other than the possibility of getting someone back in a Braun trade, and Garza being traded out, our 5 man rotation is already here.

 

If Braun isn't traded, our 8 man starting lineup is already here. If he is traded for Puig, it's 7+ Puig.

 

Our bullpen is pretty well here, unless they find some trades out there for Thornburg or whoever. It's possible Stearns may find some guys out there on cheap deals to fill roles again, but not any major acquisitions.

[MNBrew]

My thoughts largely echo what RoCoBrewfan just stated: I'd suspect most of the 25-man roster will look like it does now. My hope is for a few changes around the edges (mainly the bench).

 

PREDICTIONS/HOPES

It seems like these guys could be gone from the current roster: Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, Braun, one of Knebel/Blazek, Nieuwenhuis (please!), Elmore (please!).

 

Of all those, I especially hope Braun's NOT and I hope he's a Brewer for his whole career.

 

I think a Scooter trade happens, but later than sooner.

 

Maldonado's a respectable backup. If he's here, okay. Given the dearth of decent catching out there, he's someone who might have a little trade value, especially if paired with a decent arm or additional player (Scooter? Garza?).

 

COMMENTS

- I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with an Aaron Hill equivalent (overpaid, previously proven vet) on the Opening Day roster.

 

- I think Rivera (IF) & Perez (Super U) deserve to be shoo-ins as backups next year.

 

- We've gotta have at least one better 4th (& 5th) OF option than Nieuwenhuis or Flores (or especially Elmore, who's really only a middle IF). Your 4th OF has to be someone you're comfortable seeing start 100 games in case a starter gets injured.

 

- I think it's a sure thing Rymer Liriano is activated, outrighted off the 40-man, and becomes a spring training NRI at most.

[LouisEly]

Not to pick on you specifically, because others have a similar sentiment, but why think Rivera is a shoe-in yet have a strong desire for Nieuwenhuis to be gone? They seem to be somewhat similar players - Nieuwenhuis is a pretty good defender with position flexibility and not a great hitter for his position. I'd be shocked if Rivera ever posts a .630 OPS in the majors because his minor league career OPS is .632. Rivera's career minor league OBP is .287, whereas Nieuwenhuis' career major league OBP is .313.

 

KN is no starter, but if Rivera is a shoe-in for a backup IF position why not KN for a backup OF position?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think the issue with Niewenhuis is that the Brewers have such a glut of outfielders, so we have a lot of younger options. It's guys that are younger and potentially have more upside. KN kind of "is what he is". He has decent OBP because of the walks, he has decent power, and he can play all 3 OF positions. It's not terrible to have him starting...... but not ideal. He's not the worst 4th OF in the majors, but I think the prevailing idea is that the Brewers probably have better internal options already within the organization.

 

 

I also think it's not really fair to compare KN to Rivera. They're not competing for roster spots. Rivera's an infielder. It would seem, based on what kind of moves Stearns makes in the off-season, that the only guy Rivera's competing with is Perez. If Gennett is traded, Perez is probably/possibly starting.

 

Niewenhuis is competing with (possibly/probably) Reed, Wren, and even eventually Brinson or some other FA scrap heap type pickup. Like Toby said, KN is entering Arby's, so the question is do the Brewers want to pay Arby's prices for .700 OPS production when they can likely get it from minimum wage guys or from a "throw it against the wall' type player.

[And That]

Niewenhuis is going to be arbitration-eligible this winter, so while the Brewers don't have any payroll limitations at present, I have to wonder if they want to pay him much more than the minimum. If he was cut loose from the roster, I don't know that he gets claimed, or signs a major league deal with anyone.

 

I also don't think it would be a bad move to hang onto him, just so long as he isn't taking up space at the risk of losing a younger player in the rule 5 draft.

[Greenleaf1]

Thanks for actually taking my original post seriously, guys.

 

On the next great Brewers team, they're the heart of the bench. But at this point, the only circumstance where I'm okay with Perez on the bench with Cordell, is if Braun were shifted back to third, Carter stayed to play first, putting Santana in left (I would be open if the Brewers acquired another young OF to try out in left or a young first baseman).

 

There are very few certainties in life, things you can absolutely count on. But Clancy never fails to deliver.

 

Year Tm Lg Age Pos G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rdrs Rtot/yr Rdrs/yr RF/9 RF/G lgFld% lgRF9 lgRFG

2007 MIL NL 23 3B 112 112 89 945.1 248 61 161 26 12 .895 -35 -32 -45 -41 2.11 1.98 .954 2.68 2.67

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54599/who-had-the-worst-defensive-season-ever

 

Let the record show that despite the way the quote looks above, there's no way I ever suggested that Braun should be shifted back to 3rd base.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It wouldn't shock me if Nieuwenhuis gets dealt for an out-of-options infielder who takes Rivera's spot. He's just good enough as a fourth outfielder that I could see him being the bait in Stearns' search for this year's version of Villar or Broxton.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Let the record show that despite the way the quote looks above, there's no way I ever suggested that Braun should be shifted back to 3rd base.

 

No.... it's ok. We know where it came from.

[LouisEly]

While the Brewers do have a glut of OF, only Reed and Wren will likely be ready to compete for a roster spot to begin the 2017 season; if the Brewers trade Braun and don't end up with Puig there will be a spot available. I really think that Brinson starts the year in AAA. Brinson had a nice run in AAA, but it was over 93 PAs and he walked only twice. Injured or not, his walk rate was less than 5% for the season, and I'd want to see a bigger sample and a higher walk rate before giving him a major league roster spot.

 

The Brewers picked up Perez for free, and he's only a year older than Rivera but a big upgrade offensively. The Brewers don't need a backup SS - they have Villar and Perez - and Rivera just doesn't hit enough for a backup 2B/3B. I think the Brewers can pick up a backup IF off the waiver wire or FA pool who is 26 or younger and is an upgrade over Rivera.

[Outlander]

I agree with you LouisEly. I see that the Brewers still have 44 guys on the 40 man and in my estimate they will add 6 more to protect from the rule 5 draft so they will have to remove at least 10 players and think Rivera is one of them. I really don't think he gets claimed and therefore will get outrighted to the minors and a possible call up if they need a SS next year at some point.

[monty57]

I'm not a fan of adding Puig's attitude to the team, but after thinking about Stearns' line of reasoning, I'm coming around to the idea:

 

2016 was the season where the Brewers didn't care if they won or lost. We were able to throw a bunch of question marks all over the field and see which ones "sank" and which ones "swam." While they are not going to go overboard trying to win in 2017, they don't want to put out a roster with the potential to lose 100 games.

 

If Braun is gone, it leaves a huge hole to fill, and as LouisEly stated, our prospects aren't ready to fill it (not that many players could replace Braun). Therefore, if we trade him solely for prospects, we could be replacing Braun's production with replacement-level production until Brinson is up (and who knows if he'd hit the ground running). That could mean we'd have a team that could fall apart.

 

Puig is talented, but both his attitude and recent performance have his value at an all-time low. At his worst, he's still a mid-.700 OPS OF, who won't sink the team like someone like Flores could. At his best, he's one of the best hitters in baseball, making him a prime candidate to buy low and potentially sell for a gold mine. Brinson and others will be ready before too long, and Puig is only signed through 2018, so he would almost certainly be traded by no later than next offseason (prior to 2018).

 

Worst case is that Puig's attitude tears the team apart, and I would hope that management knows their players enough that they wouldn't bring him on if they thought this could happen. Barring that, worst case seems to be that they would replace a .900+ OPS OF for a .750 OPS OF plus some prospects. That's the downside, which would be a step back but not the end of the world.

 

The best case is that in addition to the other prospects they'd get in the trade, they get "good Puig," who hits for a .900+ OPS and regains his value so they can trade him in a year for a lot more young talent.

 

As long as they also get some other prospects in the trade, Stearns limits his potential to look completely foolish in this deal, but it could turn out to be another "franchise saving" trade if it pans out. Since that would be the third "franchise saving" trade since the beginning of the rebuild, our future would look really bright. Again, this assumes that we also get other prospects in the deal. Braun is a better hitter with more years of control, so he should be worth more than Puig alone.

 

Sorry if this doesn't fit exactly into the thread, but I think that if this trade goes through, which seems somewhat likely, then the Brewers can still be a team that could reach .500 next year, while increasing their young talent base, with the potential to increase it even more in the future.

[tmwiese55]

If Braun isn't traded and manages to stay healthy again most of next season it's really not outlandish at all to think they can be .500ish. RF/CF should be massive upgrades vs what they got this year, making up for a huge downgrade at C and some regression from Villar/Carter so the offense is still respectable and surprisingly deep.

 

The big question as always with the Brewers is pitching but guys like Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Guerra, Peralta should at least all be serviceable #3-5 type guys next year. You're not winning anything serious with those guys but assuming health from them they can all be expected to be mediocre/ok type which could lead to a mediocre season where they're surprisingly competitive.

 

I'm all-in on the rebuild but I also appreciate being entertained and watching good baseball throughout a long season, especially when spending thousands on going to games. So I guess I'm just saying it will be a good rebuild if the worst is behind us already and we only really had to sit through one really horrible season (2015) and are already starting to project upward.

 

Obviously, I know a little optimistic thinking on Braun not being traded/healthy and on the pitchers all being OK after such poor overall seasons from guys like Nelson, Peralta, Anderson but I think you know what I mean. It's really not that crazy to think the bottom has already happened.