Way Too Early 2017 Predictions/Hopes

[Greenleaf1]

My dad asked me if I was going to try to predict the 25-man opening day roster for next year soon, which I'm well aware is like predicting if it's going to rain next April, but I thought I'd have some fun with it and try to approach it from what moves I'd make during the offseason if I were DS.

 

These predictions more or less rely on a few assumptions: that there won't be any over- or under-performers in spring training, no major injuries, and that we get good value back in trades for players that I'd like to shop this offseason. I also didn't really bother to look at specific free agents or trade targets that would help the major league team for opening day 2017.

 

What do you guys think? What are your (way too early) initial thoughts leading into 2017?

 

Lose to Free Agency: Blaine Boyer, Chris Capuano

 

Trade: Scooter Gennett, Martin Maldonado, Carlos Torres, Junior Guerra, Matt Garza (I'll assume for this exercise that we find good trades for all of these guys, and that none of them involve players that would need to be added to the 40-man roster, otherwise this just gets confusing).

 

Players to Add to 40-man: Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, Wei-Chung Wang, Kyle Wren, Nate Orf, Garrett Cooper

 

Players from 60-day DL added back to 40-man: Rymer Liriano, Yhonathan Barrios, Sean Nolin

 

Players to remove from 40-man: Garin Cecchini, David Goforth, Andy Wilkins, Jake Elmore, Ben Rowen

 

25-man Roster:

SP Zach Davies

SP Wily Peralta

SP Jimmy Nelson

SP Chase Anderson

SP Brent Suter

 

RP Tyler Thornburg

RP Corey Knebel

RP Jacob Barnes

RP Jhan Marinez

RP Tyler Cravy

RP Michael Blazek

RP I'll cheat here a little and say that I would sign a bunch of bounceback candidates to minor league deals with invites to spring training and choose whoever does best (probably a lefty since I've moved Suter to the rotation). To make room on the 40-man, I'll DFA Rob Scahill (unless he's the guy that makes the team I guess).

 

Starting regulars:

C Manny Pina

1B Chris Carter

2B Jonathan Villar

SS Orlando Arcia

3B Hernan Perez

LF Ryan Braun

CF Keon Broxton

RF Domingo Santana

 

Bench:

C Andrew Susac

OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis

C/1B Josmil Pinto

IF Yadiel Rivera

OF Kyle Wren

 

I don't see us making any free agent signings in the offseason to guaranteed contracts (we only had one last offseason: Chris Carter), but probably lots of minor league deals, mostly relievers but probably some potential bench bats too. I really wouldn't be surprised if we were active traders this offseason if we're getting good offers. We have a lot of guys worth trading if we can find the right teams to take them.

 

I also didn't even want to try to figure out what the 25-man would look like if we traded Ryan Braun, so I just assumed he'd be back. If he does get traded, then I guess I'll say Puig starting in RF and Santana in LF, McCarthy in the rotation instead of Suter, and move Suter to the bullpen. Braun/Puig can swap spots on the 40-man, and McCarthy can take the 40-man spot of the mystery reliever that Suter is bumping by moving back to the bullpen.

[JohnBriggs12]

Well the owner's comments last week when talking to Bill and Brian totally discouraged me. I thought I heard him use the terms "no-chance, and 2017" in the same sentence. So I expect no effort to improve the team's chances for 2017, and in fact I expect the roster to have less talent on it next April than it does now sadly. Forgive me but as someone who competed in athletics in high school against long odds, I just can't fathom that type of attitude. It's one thing to focus on future success but you can do that and put the best possible product on the field in the present too.

[MrTPlush]

Forgive me but as someone who competed in athletics in high school against long odds, I just can't fathom that type of attitude.

 

Did you honestly just compare your high school athletic days to professional sports. [sarcasm]John this may be your best work yet.[/sarcasm]

[mrn1ceguy]

Greenleaf1, your thoughts are pretty similar to mine. Assuming we trade both those starting pitchers (or really any two), I would still imagine Jungmann, a prospect like Hader or a bounce back candidate from outside gets the starting spot over Suter with Suter is in the pen. But maybe Suter blows people away in his next start and over the winter/spring.

 

Also maybe Susac starting over Pina and a different bench player than Pinto (Orf?). I'd also find a way to protect Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter so someone doesn't Wei-Chung Wang us. Otherwise, pretty much what I was thinking.

[monty57]

This may be crazy, but looking at that lineup leads me to believe that if we don't trade Braun we could be a .500 team next year. A lot will depend on whether our rotation looks like the first half of 2016 or the second half, but we have some talent on the MLB roster, and we have Hader, Brinson, Ortiz, Phillips, etc. backing up the group mentioned in the opening post. Plus, I'd bet that Stearns will find another surprise player or two before the season starts.

 

To "play the game" of the thread, I think you're pretty spot on, but I doubt that they get rid of both Guerra and Garza in order for Suter to be the #5 unless we get tremendous value back for both of those pitchers. I think the rotation will be Davies, Peralta, Nelson, Guerra, Anderson with Suter as the "long man/6th starter," Jungman in AAA ready to step in right away, and Hader coming up after curtoff. Woodruff, Lopez and Ortiz could also be in AAA, making for a really talented AAA rotation, if only they didn't play in Colorado Springs.

[pacopete4]

2017 Prediction: At least two of our starting pitchers pitch their career worsts and by that I mean historically bad and tank our season in March/April/May. Seems to be a trend to Brewer seasons as of late.

[mrn1ceguy]

This may be crazy, but looking at that lineup leads me to believe that if we don't trade Braun we could be a .500 team next year. A lot will depend on whether our rotation looks like the first half of 2016 or the second half, but we have some talent on the MLB roster, and we have Hader, Brinson, Ortiz, Phillips, etc. backing up the group mentioned in the opening post. Plus, I'd bet that Stearns will find another surprise player or two before the season starts.

 

To "play the game" of the thread, I think you're pretty spot on, but I doubt that they get rid of both Guerra and Garza in order for Suter to be the #5 unless we get tremendous value back for both of those pitchers. I think the rotation will be Davies, Peralta, Nelson, Guerra, Anderson with Suter as the "long man/6th starter," Jungman in AAA ready to step in right away, and Hader coming up after curtoff. Woodruff, Lopez and Ortiz could also be in AAA, making for a really talented AAA rotation, if only they didn't play in Colorado Springs.

 

Just to highlight a small section. While I don't expect them to trade players to give Suter a spot, I do expect the Brewers to trade at least two of their 7 starting pitchers (Nelson, Davies, Peralta, Guerra, Anderson, Garza, Jungmann). The starting pitching FA market is so poor this spring that our mid to back rotation arms like Garza and Anderson or promising mid to top rotation arms like Nelson of Guerra will probably be very attractive (compared to their "worth").

 

I would be kind of surprised if at least two starting pitchers aren't moved based on the likely value we will get. It will be a strike while the iron's hot scenario similar to our trading Smith and Jeffress at the deadline.

[Outlander]

I don't see the Brewers adding Wren or Orf, maybe Cooper. If they thought they were going to add them I think they would have seen time in Milwaukee in September especially since they are older. I would expect the Brewers to again pick at least one player in the rule 5 draft, maybe 2 again. Don't think they trade Garza until next summer if at all, do think Scooter has the best chance to be traded even more than Braun. Do think they will stick with all three catchers on the 40 man this winter, maybe optioning Susac to start 2017. Will be shopping Torres but not sure about the demand, maybe another summer trade. Carter has grown on me, hope he sticks around but if they get blown away with an offer then take it.

[MrTPlush]

While I don't expect them to trade players to give Suter a spot, I do expect the Brewers to trade at least two of their 7 starting pitchers (Nelson, Davies, Peralta, Guerra, Anderson, Garza, Jungmann).

 

Id expect them to hold onto most of their starting pitch depth and not be all that motivated to move any of them. I could see them trading Garza to open up a spot in the rotation, but outside of that I question how much they want to trade any of those guys. I also really question that we can get great value for any of our guys since they all really struggled this year.

 

Id guess Nelson, Davies, Peralta, and Jungmann are pretty safe. I don't see them selling at bottom value for Nelson, same with Peralta who pitched well after being brought back up, Davies since he was the only competent pitcher all year long, and Jungmann as he just doesn't have value.

 

That leaves Garza, Anderson, and Guerra. I am sure they would love to dump Garza and would be willing onn Anderson/Guerra for the right deal.

[reillymcshane]

This may be crazy, but looking at that lineup leads me to believe that if we don't trade Braun we could be a .500 team next year.

Yep. I agree. And some writers are saying the same thing.

 

No one is suggesting we're a playoff team, but if some guys develop as expected and maybe a break or two, there's a chance we could start sniffing the .500 mark.

[djoctagone]

Do think they will stick with all three catchers on the 40 man this winter, maybe optioning Susac to start 2017.

with that prediction, one of four catchers will have to be removed from the 40-man.

[CheeseheadInQC]

-- If Gennett isn't back, I almost wonder if we see a couple of moves to pick up young risk/reward infielders, perhaps dangling some of the team's outfield depth (Nieuwenhuis?), hoping one turns into either a starting second or third baseman.

 

-- I could see Wren being added if they trade Nieuwenhuis, but otherwise I'm guessing he and Orf are left off the 40-man. Orf just seems like the type of guy who isn't going to be added until he is needed on the big league roster, the offensive equivalent of Suter or Cravy.

 

-- If they only trade one of the starting pitchers, I'm wondering if they move Jungmann to the bullpen.

[Outlander]

Do think they will stick with all three catchers on the 40 man this winter, maybe optioning Susac to start 2017.

with that prediction, one of four catchers will have to be removed from the 40-man.

I don't really consider Pinto a catcher, under no circumstances will he be the backup at catcher. If he is kept he stays for his pinch hitting and playing first.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hopes, simple No SP suffers TJ surgery next season.

 

Prediction of:

Villar-2b

Broxton-CF

Santana-LF

Carter-1b

Perez-3b

Kirk N/Puig-RF

Arcia-SS

Susac-C

*lineup as well

 

Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Anderson, X-Factor/Dodger SP SPs.

 

Gone will be Braun, Maldonado, Garza, Gennett, and Peralta.

[TURBO]

I'd also find a way to protect Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter so someone doesn't Wei-Chung Wang us. Otherwise, pretty much what I was thinking.

 

I found that to be really funny for some reason, just the sound of it...

[TURBO]

I just can't see anyone wanting to trade anything of value for Garza. If he has a first half next year, like his second half this year, we might be able to scrounge something up, otherwise, I think we are stuck with him. I don't have high hopes for Jungman or Suter to be honest. I would not include them in the rotation to start the year. Whn talking about starting pitching, I'd love to get something in value for Anderson, but again, I just don't see a market for his type. If we traded Nelson, we wouldn't get much at this point, he needs to pitch himself back into some value. Below is what I see as our starting rotation on opening day.

 

SP Zach Davies

SP Junior Guerra

SP Wily Peralta

SP Jimmy Nelson

SP Matt Garza / Chase Anderson

 

That is not a very sexy rotation, the chances all 5 working out are slim, but my hope is that Davies continues what he started in 2016, Wily has everything figured out, Garza pitches himself into a trading commodity, and Anderson does the same. I hope that Guerra is not a flash in the pan type guy, and he repeats 2016. Jimmy is the wild card here in my eyes. I have lost a lot of faith in him, but maybe he can find it again and surprise me.

 

I am not a fan of trading Braun unless the haul we bring back is immense! I mean hugely immense!!! Trading for a guy like Puig makes zero sense. Bringing his cancerous attitude into a clubhouse full of young developing players could be a giant mistake. I'd take Braun over him any and every time! Let Braun retire a Brewer, and maybe consider a position change to 1B in 2018. Like it or not, teams are going to think they can get Braun for below market value based on his past, but to me, his past is long gone. The guy is a Brewer, and I want nothing more than to have him stay that way...

 

Starting regulars:

C Susac

1B Chris Carter

2B Jonathan Villar

SS Orlando Arcia

3B Hernan Perez

LF Ryan Braun

CF Keon Broxton

RF Domingo Santana

 

There are a lot of guys in that line-up that can move around, allowing Scooter a lot of at bats against right handed pitchers. Scooter plays 2nd, Villar moves to 3B to spell Perez, or in that situation, Perez moves to the OF to spell Braun or Santana. Lots of flexibility when you have guys like Perez and Villar. Unlike a lot of people, I think Perez has played himself into an everyday position at 3B. He has earned it, let the guy see if he can stick as a regular at that position.

 

I think if that line-up stays healthy, we could be sniffing .500 as mentioned above. There is a chance that if we added a frontline starter already in 2016, playoffs are as ridiculous as some may think. If Davies, Guerra, and Wily pan out, that is a pretty god top 3.

[pacopete4]

If you have:

 

1. Matt Garza

2. Jimmy Nelson

3. Wily Peralta

4. Chase Anderson

5. Zach Davies

6. Junio Guerra

 

as your starting pitching next season, you're looking at a pitching staff that will be somewhere around 15th-18th in the league ranking wise. This staff has little to no upside either other than seeing what the young Davies will do in another full season or if Guerra can repeat as our "ace."

[Baldkin]

If you have:

 

1. Matt Garza

2. Jimmy Nelson

3. Wily Peralta

4. Chase Anderson

5. Zach Davies

6. Junio Guerra

 

as your starting pitching next season, you're looking at a pitching staff that will be somewhere around 15th-18th in the league ranking wise. This staff has little to no upside either other than seeing what the young Davies will do in another full season or if Guerra can repeat as our "ace."

 

Considering Nelson and Peralta had career worst seasons this year and they are still sitting 17th in team ERA for their starters.... I'd say they have upside above 15th for next year.

[Greenleaf1]

I see a lot of stuff in the replies here that I agree with.

 

Guerra will be tough to trade this offseason for what we perceive his full value to be. But the starting pitching market is SO thin this offseason that trades are going to be a necessity for teams that need good arms. This might trump up Guerra's value to where we can get a top 100 prospect for him plus one or two other reasonable guys, which I think would be a fair value for him (I'm basically treating Guerra's value as 2 more dirt cheap but productive seasons, which his arby years being very much at risk because of his age and no history of good performance).

 

Garza has more or less performed like a #5 pitcher this year. He could be cheap to a team without a lot of money to spend if we throw in cash, plus he'd have a pretty reasonable option for 2018 as well. I'm not saying we'd get back a premium prospect, but I still think there's a market for Garza this offseason.

 

I also think, given the thin market, our overabundance of arms competing for the rotation next year (which, at a minimum, is 8 with Guerra/Nelson/Peralta/Davies/Anderson/Garza/Suter/Jungmann, plus maybe McCarthy if we trade Braun) along with several prospects who could be looking to get some starts later in the year (Hader, and maybe even Woodruff/Ortiz), we are in a state where it makes such perfect sense to deal a starter or two and get good value for them that I don't see how we couldn't do it. I think, unless some team is willing to drastically overpay, that Davies/Peralta/Nelson are very unlikely to be traded (all for different reasons), but Guerra/Garza/Anderson all seem likely to be part of a lot of trade talks this offseason.

 

As for protecting other players from Rule 5, I more or less was being conservative so as to not expose players unnecessarily to waivers, but Adrian Houser and Sean Nolin both seem like good DFA candidates given their long recovery times from surgery (I'm sure Nolin will still be a ways out from any chance of returning by start of next year, and it wouldn't be a huge loss to lose him anyways), and maybe Barrios too if he isn't recovering.

 

Also, is it possible I'm targeting the wrong catcher for a trade in Maldonado? I like Pina and wouldn't want to see him go, but Maldonado/Susac could probably handle catcher next year and if someone was willing to overpay for him like the Pirates did for Jason Rogers, that might be an interesting trade too. Any teams out there that might be desperate enough at catcher to do something like that (obviously I hate the idea of trading with the Mets at this point but they seem like a pretty clear option here).

[pacopete4]

If you have:

 

1. Matt Garza

2. Jimmy Nelson

3. Wily Peralta

4. Chase Anderson

5. Zach Davies

6. Junio Guerra

 

as your starting pitching next season, you're looking at a pitching staff that will be somewhere around 15th-18th in the league ranking wise. This staff has little to no upside either other than seeing what the young Davies will do in another full season or if Guerra can repeat as our "ace."

 

Considering Nelson and Peralta had career worst seasons this year and they are still sitting 17th in team ERA for their starters.... I'd say they have upside above 15th for next year.

 

 

One would think that but Nelson really isn't too far off of his career norms. We may be seeing the pitcher that he is. I hope not, but there is definitely no guarantee that this is not close to what Jimmy will give us next season.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd also find a way to protect Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter so someone doesn't Wei-Chung Wang us. Otherwise, pretty much what I was thinking.

 

I found that to be really funny for some reason, just the sound of it...

 

However, its great if you wang chung tonight.

[MKE81]

Position players - Susac, Carter, Villar, Arcia, Perez, Santana, Broxton, Puig - Pina, Rivera + 3

 

Arms - Guerra, Nelson, Davies, Peralta, Anderson, McCarthy - Thornburg, Barnes, Knebel, Suter + 2 (I like Torres back)

 

Braun, Scooter, Maldy, Garza, Blazek, etc all gone. There will of course be other acquisitions or freak injuries that will change this prediction again and again

[jackailius]

I think this will be a really interesting offseason. I think it will be one of the last offseasons that we could see a huge number of deals because in the future so many players will be coming up with long controllability. It is also going to be interesting going into next year to see who they are going to protect from rule v, who they may trade/release to make room to protect more and if they start the season with a couple in the MLB who are maybe not quite ready but in order to maximize the number protected, they give them a spot rather than leave them available for picking.

 

If I were GM I would like to see the following:

 

Trade Gennett, Garza, Peralta, Maldinado, Carter, Braun, Blazek, Cravy and Torres

 

25 man looks like:

C Susac

1B Bellinger (acquired in the Braun/Torres deal)

2b Villar

SS Arcia

3B Perez

LF Santana

CF Brinson

RF Broxton

 

Bench: Pina, Liriano, Reed or Wren, Rivera, ?

 

SP:

Nelson, Davies, McCarthy, Anderson, Guerra

 

RP

Suter, Knebel, Marinez, Jungmann, Magnifico, Barnes, Thornberg

 

rest of 40man

Orf, Cooper, Hader, Wang, Coulter, Cordell, Phillips, Deleon (added in the Braun/Torres trade), Williams, Taylor, Lopez, Rowen, Scahill

 

That leaves a couple spots for others that may come in trades or for any needs due to injury or buy low options that may bump others back in line as well as anyone that may be looked at as needing to be protected that I missed.

 

I think Counsel will continue to work to move folks around the diamond- ie even though Perez is listed at 3b I would imagine he will get time in the OF, 1b, 2b. Villar likely will get time around the infield as well and the outfield will be rotating around too.

 

I also would be listening on any pitchers. With how shallow the pool of pitching is on the open market, it may trigger some nice returns for our starters as well as our relievers to some of the teams that missed out on a starter and will look to shorten the game with relievers. in the right circumstance I might trade Thornberg this winter. I would package some of our players too. At this point I don't know if you get a great return for anyone but Braun and Thornburg by themselves (I'm going to assume no one will meet my asking price for Davies or Guerra)

 

With Braun I think to get 2 premium level prospects (Deleon and Bellinger) you will need to send a reliever back too (Torres). So that trade would look like Braun and Torres for McCarthy Deleon, Bellinger and 2 lower level prospects further down the top 30 that have upside but also have question marks.

 

For the others I wouldn't even want to speculate a return but if its me I would go for more lower level boom or bust candidates rather than low ceiling moderate floor- (we have enough of those I think and will be running into situations where it will be tough to protect them in the very near future anyways).

 

I think there will be a lot of NRI again this coming spring and one or two could earn there way onto the 25 man and one or two others traded/demoted/DFAed but it is going to start getting really tough I think with the talent potential that we have to protect on the 40 man. The only ones I can really see falling off the list are guys like Liriano, Reed, Wren, Orf, Cooper, Magnifico.

 

Mine is more of a hope than a reality but being as it is September that is what I am going off of.

[gregmag]

Gennett has been trending upward, enough that he should bring something decent back if we can find a team with a hole at 2b. Hernan has been trending downward, which supports the idea that super-sub is his ideal role. The org seems to be thinking this way on both counts, given that Villar has gotten time at 2b and Perez has gotten time everywhere. Upshot: I want Gennett gone, but I think we need a 2b or 3b (because Villar can play either) once he goes, at least for our real, contending lineup.

 

Santana to 1b now makes more sense than Braun to 1b, especially because Braun to LA makes about as much sense as Braun to 1b. In fact, Santana to 1b is starting to seem like a no-brainer, since we have like 50 CFs in the pipeline, at least one or two of whom should work out.

 

I'm feeling better about our rotation for where we're at in the rebuild. Hopefully two of our top minor league guys can supplant two back-of-rotation guys below by May 2018.

 

Starting rotation: Guerra, Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Anderson; Jungmann (injury replacement) (hoping Garza's recent adequacy makes him flippable)

 

Pen: Thornburg, Torres, Knebel, plus four of Blazek, Marinez, Suter, Scahill, Cravy, Barnes, Magnifico (presumably some among these ten guys get dealt)

 

c: Susac, Pina time-share (trade Maldy)

1b: Santana (trade Carter)

2b: Villar / new guy (trade Scooter)

3b: new guy / Villar

ss: Arcia

lf: Braun (if he doesn't get dealt, obviously)

cf: Broxton / Brinson (after service time delay)

rf: Brinson / Broxton

 

c: Pina / Susac time share

if: Rivera

of: Liriano (please be okay)

supersub: Perez

 

25th man: maybe another reliever, preferably a position player, with Reed and Orf the best candidates right now

[MrTPlush]

I am going off the assumption Garza is gone somehow and Braun ends up getting traded off to the Dodgers. If Braun isn't traded he goes to LF and Santana back to RF. If Garza isn't traded someone else will be and he will take that spot in the rotation. Susac is my starting catcher as Maldonado is clearly a back-up at this point. I won't even attempt to guess the bullpen or bench because it is a waste of time this far out.

 

Starting Rotation:

 

1)Davies

2)Guerra

3)Nelson

4)Anderson

5)Peralta

 

Positional Players:

 

C-Andrew Susac

1B-Chris Carter

2B-Jonathan Villar

SS-Orlando Arcia

3B-Hernan Perez

LF- Domingo Santana

CF- Keon Broxton

RF- Yasiel Puig