Who is our CF of the future?

[brewmann04]

I don't think they will have to gut the system maybe still make some trades for top Minor league arms instead of the Chris Sale Type.

I even be happy if we can acquire two potential #2 type starters.

 

We have. Ortiz and Bickford. And Hader.

 

Hopefully they will pan out to be those type a lot of question marks though

[Greenleaf1]

Back to the topic of the post. Broxton has looked very good in CF this year, but the MLB writeup on Brinson mentions that his glove is likely to prop up his floor, so he must be at least somewhat renown for his defense in center field.

 

If Brinson is called up midseason and both he and Broxton are performing, it's very possible that they split time between center and right to see who does best there.

[pacopete4]

I don't think they will have to gut the system maybe still make some trades for top Minor league arms instead of the Chris Sale Type.

I even be happy if we can acquire two potential #2 type starters.

 

We have. Ortiz and Bickford. And Hader.

 

Hopefully they will pan out to be those type a lot of question marks though

 

As does every pitching prospect.

[TheCrew07]

Wait what did Melvin do? Pretty sure we drafted quite a bit of pitching in the early rounds under him. As best he could with where he always picked. Then when he finally got to trade a good player he got a Top 50 prospect pitcher.

 

Once again Melvin didn't draft anyone for the Brewers, ever. Jack Z and Bruce S (Ray Montgomery for 1 year) did all of the drafting during Melvin's tenure. They didn't do the best they could to acquire impact pitching, in fact the draft position was a heck of a lot better under Jack Z than under Seid... Mike Jones, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Evan Frederickson, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Hendrickson, Eric Arnett, and Dylan Covey were all picked in the 1st round from 2001 to 2010. Not a single starting pitcher for the Brewers from that bunch, and of course Odorizzi was traded so KC could win a World Series. I've pointed out numerous times that only having a couple of high risk high reward prospects at any one time was a strategy to fail. Not to mention they went signability with high risk players and never spent big money later in the draft for players that were slipping when that could be done.

 

Yovani Gallardo was far and away the best pitching prospect from that time frame, and he was a 2nd rounder which of course meant that draft position mattered little for that selection.

 

They have done a fantastic job adding pitching over the last two years. It isn't enough though...of course. We aren't done yet. You can't just devote to pitching you have to get bats. I think they have done a great job balancing the two.

 

I think that's a reasonable take, though I'm not sure I'd go to the fantastic card in terms of pitching. We've traded for an awful lot of guys who project as 3s best case and while you can win enough games with an average pitching staff to get into the playoffs, I firmly believe that's not enough to win a championship. Play off baseball is all about match-ups and best on best, because of the off days the depth of your roster isn't as important as the talent at the top.

[MKE81]

The answer is Brinson. Offensively has great potential but worst case he's average and a 15/15 player. He's a plus defender with plus, accurate arm in CF - he's a true CF who's known for his defense first.

 

So whenever Brinson is ready he's taking over CF. Stearns knows teams value up the middle guys, which is why he acquires so many CFs as that's where the better return on trade is. Broxton needs a full year in CF to bring a good return given he's a legitimate defensive CF with big speed on the bases and will hit 15-20HR. So based on right now I think Braun is traded in the offseason then Broxton and Puig are traded before 2018 opening it up for Santana/Brinson/Phillips with Cordell as 4th. I think Clark will be traded at some point. Ray I can see taking one of the starting corner spots when he's ready, which won't be until 2nd half of 2019 or 2020.

[monty57]

We've traded for an awful lot of guys who project as 3s best case

 

I trust your take on prospects a lot more than my own, but do you really see Hader, Ortiz, and Bickford as "3's best case"? I'd like to think that we could get at least one solid #2 out of that group, and once the team starts to gel, we'll go FA and Attanasio will authorize the use of our $70-90M of free cash flow to sign a TOR guy.

 

Back to the topic of the post. Broxton has looked very good in CF this year, but the MLB writeup on Brinson mentions that his glove is likely to prop up his floor, so he must be at least somewhat renown for his defense in center field.

 

Agree. I think Brison has star potential, and a lot of his value will come from his glove. If Broxton is for real, and Brinson comes close to his potential, we could have a really fun OF to watch for a long time.

[homer]

I don't think the Royals had a legit #1 or 2 in their rotation the last couple of years.

[adambr2]

The answer is Brinson. Offensively has great potential but worst case he's average and a 15/15 player. He's a plus defender with plus, accurate arm in CF - he's a true CF who's known for his defense first.

 

So whenever Brinson is ready he's taking over CF. Stearns knows teams value up the middle guys, which is why he acquires so many CFs as that's where the better return on trade is. Broxton needs a full year in CF to bring a good return given he's a legitimate defensive CF with big speed on the bases and will hit 15-20HR. So based on right now I think Braun is traded in the offseason then Broxton and Puig are traded before 2018 opening it up for Santana/Brinson/Phillips with Cordell as 4th. I think Clark will be traded at some point. Ray I can see taking one of the starting corner spots when he's ready, which won't be until 2nd half of 2019 or 2020.

 

Broxton is under team control through I believe 2022. I'm always open to the idea of trading anyone but if he does turn out to be a 20 HR/50 SB player with top tier defense that he was looking like in the 2nd half, you need an amazing return to deal him after 2017. Like, better than the Gomez or Lucroy returns.

[CheezWizHed]

Broxton has high potential defense, but also has a tendency for gaffs too. As indicated by this MiLB thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33945

 

I would rank their CF defense (solely on reports and not first hand viewing):

 

Brinson - sounds like a 5 tool potential

Broxton/Maverick - both above average potential, but notch below Brinson

Ray/Clark - probably a weak CF potential. More likely a corner OF.

[MKE81]

The answer is Brinson. Offensively has great potential but worst case he's average and a 15/15 player. He's a plus defender with plus, accurate arm in CF - he's a true CF who's known for his defense first.

 

So whenever Brinson is ready he's taking over CF. Stearns knows teams value up the middle guys, which is why he acquires so many CFs as that's where the better return on trade is. Broxton needs a full year in CF to bring a good return given he's a legitimate defensive CF with big speed on the bases and will hit 15-20HR. So based on right now I think Braun is traded in the offseason then Broxton and Puig are traded before 2018 opening it up for Santana/Brinson/Phillips with Cordell as 4th. I think Clark will be traded at some point. Ray I can see taking one of the starting corner spots when he's ready, which won't be until 2nd half of 2019 or 2020.

 

Broxton is under team control through I believe 2022. I'm always open to the idea of trading anyone but if he does turn out to be a 20 HR/50 SB player with top tier defense that he was looking like in the 2nd half, you need an amazing return to deal him after 2017. Like, better than the Gomez or Lucroy returns.

You're most likely never going to see a Gomez/Lucroy return for Broxton (definitely not a Lucroy). Lucroy is a 2x AS and top 3-5 catcher in MLB. Gomez is a 2x AS with a GG in CF. Broxton is 27 next May and only has 1.5 months of quality MLB production and will never win a GG and most likely will never be an AS. I like Broxton, always have since the day of the trade and even more when I saw him in ST. The reality is he's not staying in CF because Brinson is taking that spot. And Santana/Phillips can put up similar or better numbers (outside of SBs) while playing solid defense in their corner spots having strong arms (Phillips with a plus arm). I'll take the guys who are 2-4yrs younger with higher ceilings. Then in 1-2yrs after that you're dealing with Ray and Clark not to mention anyone else acquired somehow. For clarification purposes, I would have no issue trading Santana and keeping Broxton. I just think you'll get a fine return from power/speed CF while being able to still have corners who are young and talented.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know why it's a given Phillips will have one of the corners, he needs to make it to MLB first. For that matter it's not a given that Brinson will hit at the MLB level. I agree they would like him to be the long term answer there, but he needs to prove he can do it. Finally, why are we waiting until 2020 for Ray? If he has a big year next season, he could very realistically make it to MLB by 2018.

[adambr2]

The answer is Brinson. Offensively has great potential but worst case he's average and a 15/15 player. He's a plus defender with plus, accurate arm in CF - he's a true CF who's known for his defense first.

 

So whenever Brinson is ready he's taking over CF. Stearns knows teams value up the middle guys, which is why he acquires so many CFs as that's where the better return on trade is. Broxton needs a full year in CF to bring a good return given he's a legitimate defensive CF with big speed on the bases and will hit 15-20HR. So based on right now I think Braun is traded in the offseason then Broxton and Puig are traded before 2018 opening it up for Santana/Brinson/Phillips with Cordell as 4th. I think Clark will be traded at some point. Ray I can see taking one of the starting corner spots when he's ready, which won't be until 2nd half of 2019 or 2020.

 

Broxton is under team control through I believe 2022. I'm always open to the idea of trading anyone but if he does turn out to be a 20 HR/50 SB player with top tier defense that he was looking like in the 2nd half, you need an amazing return to deal him after 2017. Like, better than the Gomez or Lucroy returns.

You're most likely never going to see a Gomez/Lucroy return for Broxton (definitely not a Lucroy). Lucroy is a 2x AS and top 3-5 catcher in MLB. Gomez is a 2x AS with a GG in CF. Broxton is 27 next May and only has 1.5 months of quality MLB production and will never win a GG and most likely will never be an AS. I like Broxton, always have since the day of the trade and even more when I saw him in ST. The reality is he's not staying in CF because Brinson is taking that spot. And Santana/Phillips can put up similar or better numbers (outside of SBs) while playing solid defense in their corner spots having strong arms (Phillips with a plus arm). I'll take the guys who are 2-4yrs younger with higher ceilings. Then in 1-2yrs after that you're dealing with Ray and Clark not to mention anyone else acquired somehow. For clarification purposes, I would have no issue trading Santana and keeping Broxton. I just think you'll get a fine return from power/speed CF while being able to still have corners who are young and talented.

 

All right, well first of all, I did clarify that I said expecting that kind of return on Broxton is dependent on him turning into that 20/50 plus defense CFer. So at that point, he wouldn't have a month and a half of solid MLB production. A 20/50 plus defense centerfielder is extremely valuable. That's Gomez production at his peak, and we didn't even trade him at his best.

 

Secondly, value is based on more than past production, it's also based on age, control, and cost. If you're going to trade away a 27 year old

20/50 centerfielder with 5 cost control years left, you had better get tremendous value for it, and multiple top prospects.

 

So the only question to me is, was his 143 ABs post AS break a true breakout, or just an aberration? Keon isn't some Kirk Nieuwenhuis type just having a nice little run. He has the athletic ability and upside to back up that type of sustained production.

 

I know 20/50 seems like an insanely optimistic projection for him, but his post AS break run until his injury exceeded that mark projected for an entire season.

 

That being said, I realize it's still an if -- 143 ABs isn't a large enough sample to make any definite conclusions. But IF he is indeed that type of player, to me, he's definitely worth that type of return, even after just doing it in 2017, hypothetically. If not, you don't trade him.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm going with Broxton. I'm not sure that I've ever seen someone improve so much in the course of a season.... He still strikes out way too much, but could be a late bloomer like Carlos.

[adambr2]

I'm going with Broxton. I'm not sure that I've ever seen someone improve so much in the course of a season.... .

 

Yeah its been pretty remarkable. To think that we would even be debating whether him or the 15th best prospect in baseball, who happens to have a top notch CF glove, which one will be our CF of the future, would have been unthinkable 2 months ago.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I look forward to the day when the Brewers OF is manned by 3 CF's (I guess it would be 1CF and 2 former CF's).

 

Similar to the Brewers Inf. when they start 3 SS's (Arcia, Villar & Perez).

 

Draft, sign or acquire as many CF's and SS's as you can get and they will be able to handle the other positions when the time comes.

[Greenleaf1]

Our outfield was just simply terrible for long stretches this year, but most of that was due to guys in placeholder roles waiting for our prospects to be ready and break out. Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a perfectly valid 4th OF, but was spending way too much time in the field, and don't get me started on Ramon Flores.

 

Luckily, with Broxton and Santana breaking out, our 2017 outfield is a place to dream on. Our #2/#3/#4 hitters next year could be our outfield (Broxton/Braun/Santana, or even Broxton/Brinson/Santana possibly.....maybe Santana bats 5th but I think he could make a great cleanup hitter), what a turnaround that would be from this year.

[StearnsFTW]

<------

[MrTPlush]

Why are we trading Keon Broxton if he truly is a 20/50 player? Sounds like a guy we should keep. Stick the kid in a corner OF spot and call it a day. Brinson will take over CF sometime next year, Santana can slide over to LF, and Broxton can slot in at RF. IF Phillips is really pushing for a spot then send Santana to 1B. Then IF Ray is ready to go 2018/2019 we can figure out what to do. That's a long time from now.

 

This is kind of why we have to trade Braun though. We have to figure out what we have in these young guys who will be around in 2020 and beyond. Having an aging Braun in LF is not helping the long term picture.

[FVBrewerFan]

Why are we trading Keon Broxton if he truly is a 20/50 player? Sounds like a guy we should keep. Stick the kid in a corner OF spot and call it a day. Brinson will take over CF sometime next year, Santana can slide over to LF, and Broxton can slot in at RF. IF Phillips is really pushing for a spot then send Santana to 1B. Then IF Ray is ready to go 2018/2019 we can figure out what to do. That's a long time from now.

 

This is kind of why we have to trade Braun though. We have to figure out what we have in these young guys who will be around in 2020 and beyond. Having an aging Braun in LF is not helping the long term picture.

 

Agree with all that, and it also shows why getting Puig back in a Braun deal doesn't help that natural progression you outlined above. Could Puig be a flip candidate? Sure. But I don't want him to get in the way of the OF rebuild which is one area of the team that is actually on track.

[StearnsFTW]

Why are we trading Keon Broxton if he truly is a 20/50 player? Sounds like a guy we should keep. Stick the kid in a corner OF spot and call it a day. Brinson will take over CF sometime next year, Santana can slide over to LF, and Broxton can slot in at RF. IF Phillips is really pushing for a spot then send Santana to 1B. Then IF Ray is ready to go 2018/2019 we can figure out what to do. That's a long time from now.

 

This is kind of why we have to trade Braun though. We have to figure out what we have in these young guys who will be around in 2020 and beyond. Having an aging Braun in LF is not helping the long term picture.

 

Agree with all that, and it also shows why getting Puig back in a Braun deal doesn't help that natural progression you outlined above. Could Puig be a flip candidate? Sure. But I don't want him to get in the way of the OF rebuild which is one area of the team that is actually on track.

 

Amen to both quoted posts.

 

I wouldn't take Puig for free personally. Just too much potential trouble. I don't want him anywhere near these young guys.