Winter Trade Candidates?

[Mr Southpaw]

Who on the 40 man roster are candidates for a winter trade?

 

Braun could happen

Guerra after a great year

Carter maybe for his pure power

Scooter maybe, but I like his left side bat

 

Not much else of value

[adambr2]

Garza for sure if you can get anything for him or just get someone to take most of his salary.

 

Guerra. ..maybe. But with how good of a year he's had and the control he has left, it would take a great return.

 

Braun will likely be traded, and Carter is another one where the price needs to be right. I would definitely trade Scooter and move Villar to 2nd full time next year. Someone had suggested he could be part of a Braun to Dodgers deal, and I think that makes sense.

 

Pretty much any arbitration or later bullpen pieces are available for the right price. Thornburg would take a king's ransom though - they would likely do better for him at the deadline next year.

[And That]

I don't know that Carter has much more value than when he was dumped by the Astros and the Brewers picked him up for a couple million, and he's going to get a raise in arbitration which will knock his value down a little as well.

[MrTPlush]

Thornburg-most value of anyone

Garza

Peralta

Torres

Maldonado

Ones you listed

 

Really anyone on this team minus Arcia, Broxton, Santana, and Villar. Rest are fair game in my opinion. These are probably the only four guys that are very unlikely to be moved.

 

Regarding Carter I agree he probably has little value and is probably just going to return for enjoyment to watch. He is a fun dude to watch sometimes. His market really just depends on the need. If there is a team out there dying to get power and has a black hole at 1B/DH I wouldn't be surprised if we get a small return for him.

[brewmann04]

I would concur with the about Lists

[Outlander]

Torres might have value after the solid year he had. A prospect for prospect deal (Maverick?) also is a possibility if somebody really wants him and the Brewers like what they are getting in return. Maybe a minor deal like Yadiel Rivera. Like Jason Rogers last year sometimes you just get blown away with an offer and don't really see it coming. So if for example some team really likes Corey Knebel even after the season he has had then he could be gone.

[mrn1ceguy]

Everyone is moveable just with different tiers to what it will take. Here's my take on the 40 man this winter (pre Rule 5 draft) with a percentage of the likelihood of it happening. BTW "something good" is in relation to each players respective worth.

 

Released, DFA, cut or FA

-Barrios, Yhonathan (50%)

-Boyer, Blaine (100%)

-Capuano, Chris (100%)

-Cecchini, Garin (100%)

-Elmore, Jake (100%)

-Goforth, David (80%)

-Houser, Adrian (50%)

-Rowen, Ben (80%)

-Scahill, Rob (80%)

-Wilkins, Andy (100%)

 

Traded for anything

-Anderson, Chase (50%)

-Garza, Matt (75%)

 

Traded if something good is offered, not likely to be moved

-Barnes, Jacob (10%)

-Blazek, Michael (25%)

-Cravy, Tyler (25%)

-Jungmann, Taylor (25%)

-Knebel, Corey (10%)

-Liriano, Rymer (25%)

-Magnifico, Damien (10%)

-Marinez, Jhan (25%)

-Nelson, Jimmy (25%)

-Peralta, Wily (25%)

-Perez, Hernan (10%)

-Pina, Manny (25%)

-Reed, Michael (10%)

-Rivera, Yadiel (10%)

-Suter, Brent (10%)

-Torres, Carlos (25%)

 

Traded if something good is offered, realistically could be moved

-Nieuwenhuis , Kirk (50%)

-Carter, Chris (50%)

-Gennett, Scooter (80%)

-Guerra, Junior (80%)

-Maldonado, Martin (50%)

 

Traded only if blown away

-Braun, Ryan (75%)

-Thornburg, Tyler (50%)

 

Not going anywhere

-Arcia, Orlando (100%)

-Broxton, Keon (90%)

-Davies, Zach (90%)

-Lopez, Jorge (75%)

-Santana, Domingo (90%)

-Susac, Andrew (75%)

-Villar, Jonathan (90%)

 

 

Ignoring the cuts/dfa/fa, I would bet the following get traded for something:

-Garza, Matt

-Nieuwenhuis , Kirk

-Gennett, Scooter

-Guerra, Junior

-Maldonado, Martin

-Braun, Ryan

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't know why anyone other than Arcia would be completely ruled out. It all depends on the return. You probably don't want to deal Broxton or Santana because their value could still hasn't been fully established. Any of the pitchers though are fair game at this point.

 

I would suspect that Brewer trades this winter will be packages of major league players for other major league players and less of veterans for prospects (as evidence of the Braun for Puig talks). The time has come for some fine tuning on the major league roster, and that means balancing out the lineup with more lefthanded punch, and fortifying areas made weak by trades areas like catcher, and bullpen depth.

 

The Brewers will have made up about 25 games on Pittsburgh and 20 games on St. Louis this year over last year without really building a roster designed to compete in the present. Look there's likely no catching the Cubs for the next 4-5 years regardless of the excellence of the farm system. The goal should start being to get in the wild card mix and they aren't that far off that now. If they fall short of that goal through 4 months of 2017, they can always turn the focus back on veterans for prospects at the deadline.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think it would be a good idea to "sell high" on Keon Broxton if at all possible.

 

 

Also a LOL on Andrew Susac "not going anywhere".

 

 

and also Jorge Lopez. Both those guys are replacement level type players.

[adambr2]

Everyone is moveable just with different tiers to what it will take. Here's my take on the 40 man this winter (pre Rule 5 draft) with a percentage of the likelihood of it happening. BTW "something good" is in relation to each players respective worth.

 

Released, DFA, cut or FA

-Barrios, Yhonathan (50%)

-Boyer, Blaine (100%)

-Capuano, Chris (100%)

-Cecchini, Garin (100%)

-Elmore, Jake (100%)

-Goforth, David (80%)

-Houser, Adrian (50%)

-Rowen, Ben (80%)

-Scahill, Rob (80%)

-Wilkins, Andy (100%)

 

Traded for anything

-Anderson, Chase (50%)

-Garza, Matt (75%)

 

Traded if something good is offered, not likely to be moved

-Barnes, Jacob (10%)

-Blazek, Michael (25%)

-Cravy, Tyler (25%)

-Jungmann, Taylor (25%)

-Knebel, Corey (10%)

-Liriano, Rymer (25%)

-Magnifico, Damien (10%)

-Marinez, Jhan (25%)

-Nelson, Jimmy (25%)

-Peralta, Wily (25%)

-Perez, Hernan (10%)

-Pina, Manny (25%)

-Reed, Michael (10%)

-Rivera, Yadiel (10%)

-Suter, Brent (10%)

-Torres, Carlos (25%)

 

Traded if something good is offered, realistically could be moved

-Nieuwenhuis , Kirk (50%)

-Carter, Chris (50%)

-Gennett, Scooter (80%)

-Guerra, Junior (80%)

-Maldonado, Martin (50%)

 

Traded only if blown away

-Braun, Ryan (75%)

-Thornburg, Tyler (50%)

 

Not going anywhere

-Arcia, Orlando (100%)

-Broxton, Keon (90%)

-Davies, Zach (90%)

-Lopez, Jorge (75%)

-Santana, Domingo (90%)

-Susac, Andrew (75%)

-Villar, Jonathan (90%)

 

 

Ignoring the cuts/dfa/fa, I would bet the following get traded for something:

-Garza, Matt

-Nieuwenhuis , Kirk

-Gennett, Scooter

-Guerra, Junior

-Maldonado, Martin

-Braun, Ryan

 

I agree with most of this, so I'll just mention where I disagree.

 

Nieuwenhuis I believe is arbitration eligible which would make him a non-tender candidate. If he was 0-3 I'd agree with the premise. Same with Maldonado. No real reason to tender these guys IMO.

 

Wily Peralta is an interesting case. I really don't think he's worthy of a raise from his $2.8M salary. On the other hand, he's looked a lot better lately and so if he's figured it out again, you'd hate to lose him for nothing. When he got sent down I figured he was a non-tender candidate but now I would guess he'll be back in arbitration for about $3M.

 

Nelson. ..I really don't know. He won't be non-tendered, but I can't imagine his trade value is enough to justify trading him after this season.

 

Scooter seems about right, but I don't think Guerra has that strong of a chance at leaving. I think we'd have to be blown away.

[rwa12]

I agree with JB12 on Santana/Broxton, I don't think trading them now maximizes value. You may lose out if they fizzle, but they're cheap, so the only way I trade is if it is in my favor. I would put Arcia/Davies/Guerra on my untouchables list. Guerra is so cheap that I don't think you can get enough in return for him, especially with his short history of success. I actually like the team they are assembling, and think it can be competitive. I would hold on to Braun, because once again, I doubt the value is there...and the money is not a factor. I would part ways with Nieuwenhuis and Gennett, bring Carter back if he is cheap. We seem to have a lot of options in the 4/5 OF and utility roles, so I don't think you're tied to anyone specifically. I would think we're due for some positive movement to the mean next year, a lot of our talent had down years. I expect a bounceback from at least some, and hope progression from guys like Coulter continues. I am a DS believer at this point. I like the guys he has brought in. I think the rebuild timeline is built around the pitching staff. How he handles that determines the length of the rebuild.

[mrn1ceguy]

I think it would be a good idea to "sell high" on Keon Broxton if at all possible.

 

 

Also a LOL on Andrew Susac "not going anywhere".

 

 

and also Jorge Lopez. Both those guys are replacement level type players.

 

My thoughts on those two are not because I think they are core players that must be maintained. It's more about their unique situations.

 

Jorge Lopez is about the only prospect currently on our 40 man roster who wasn't a regular on the 25. We are not likely going to be trading prospects for veterans and considering Lopez had a bad year, it's unlikely we would sell low on him in a prospect for prospect trade. That's why I don't think he's going anywhere.

 

For Susac, he's arguably the best catcher on our roster with the most control (5 years control) versus Maldanado's 2 years. Pina has 6 but I don't think he is as good of a player as Susac. That being said, Susac will probably be an average starting catcher at best. Because of that and the cost of trying to get a new catcher if we moved Susac, I find it highly unlikely he's traded this winter. Give it two years and we could easily be moving him to upgrade the position, but right now I don't see any reason to move him or a scenario where we get an offer we can't refuse.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Makes sense. Nice work.

[adambr2]

That's how I read it on Susac too. He's the top catcher in our system, young and controllable, with decent upside. 'Not going anywhere' doesn't imply that he's a star or untradeable, just that he's not much of a fit for a trade right now. Same with guys like Zach Davies, Jacob Barnes, etc.

[Greenleaf1]

Trading young, controllable players with real potential for prospects is just not likely to happen during a rebuild. Trades for guys like Arcia/Villar/Broxton/Santana would have to be overwhelming. I'm talking returns of 3 or 4 guys, with either top prospects or major league talent included, otherwise there is absolutely no reason to get rid of guys with All Star potential and years of cheap control. We're incredibly lucky that Stearns has made good so far, but don't count on that happening every year with the same frequency.

 

I don't see us trading any top prospects unless it's a 2 for 1 scenario and the return is substantial. For example, I don't think Brett Phillips is going anywhere.

 

Players with relatively unproven track histories like Guerra/Thornburg seem unlikely to get their full value in a trade unless they can show success again next year. They both seem like trade candidates at the deadline next year unless someone gets desperate during the offseason.

 

Gennett has no place on the team next year, I think he gets dealt somewhere, maybe packaged along with some high floor, low ceiling prospect like Kyle Wren.

 

Braun is likely getting traded to the Dodgers I would think. But I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't. So 50/50 there? If he doesn't get traded this offseason, I wouldn't count on him getting traded for several years, unless we get insanely lucky and all our top OF prospects turn into all stars.

 

Carlos Torres seems like a perfect guy to deal this offseason. We have several guys proving their worth in the bullpen (Marinez, Suter, Cravy), plus probably Jungmann or some other starter-type will make the bullpen as a long man. Might as well deal from an area of depth, and Torres seems likeliest to get the biggest return short of Thornburg. Could see him getting us a couple mid level prospects.

 

Someone from the 6-man starting rotation right now is getting traded for sure. Not sure if it's Guerra, Garza, Anderson, or maybe even Peralta, but someone's gotta go, maybe even more than one. This seems like the most likely trade of the offseason.

 

I'd keep Chris Carter and Hernan Perez for now. Nobody's knocking down the door to take their spots, and they're productive but probably undervalued on the trade market.

 

My guess is we try to trade Nieuwenhuis and Maldonado, but both are hitting arbitration and will probably get non tendered if we can't trade them (unless we decide to start Susac at AAA, but eventually we'll have 2 spots for 3 catchers and I'd much rather have Pina/Susac).

[Mr Southpaw]

Everyone is moveable just with different tiers to what it will take. Here's my take on the 40 man this winter (pre Rule 5 draft) with a percentage of the likelihood of it happening. BTW "something good" is in relation to each players respective worth.

 

Released, DFA, cut or FA

-

-Boyer, Blaine (100%)

-Capuano, Chris (100%)

-Cecchini, Garin (100%)

-Elmore, Jake (100%)

-Goforth, David (80%)

-Houser, Adrian (50%)

-Rowen, Ben (80%)

-Scahill, Rob (80%)

-Wilkins, Andy (100%)

 

Traded for anything

-Anderson, Chase (50%)

-Garza, Matt (75%)

 

Traded if something good is offered, not likely to be moved

-Barnes, Jacob (10%)

-Blazek, Michael (25%)

-Cravy, Tyler (25%)

-Jungmann, Taylor (25%)

-Knebel, Corey (10%)

-Liriano, Rymer (25%)

-Magnifico, Damien (10%)

-Marinez, Jhan (25%)

-Nelson, Jimmy (25%)

-Peralta, Wily (25%)

-Perez, Hernan (10%)

-Pina, Manny (25%)

-Reed, Michael (10%)

-Rivera, Yadiel (10%)

-Suter, Brent (10%)

-Torres, Carlos (25%)

 

Traded if something good is offered, realistically could be moved

-Nieuwenhuis , Kirk (50%)

-Carter, Chris (50%)

-Gennett, Scooter (80%)

-

-Maldonado, Martin (50%)

 

Traded only if blown away

-Braun, Ryan (75%)

-Thornburg, Tyler (50%)

-Guerra, Junior (80%)

 

Not going anywhere

-Arcia, Orlando (100%)

-Broxton, Keon (90%)

-Davies, Zach (90%)

-Lopez, Jorge (75%)

-Santana, Domingo (90%)

-Susac, Andrew (75%)

-Villar, Jonathan (90%)

-Barrios, Yhonathan (50%)

 

Ignoring the cuts/dfa/fa, I would bet the following get traded for something:

-Garza, Matt

-Nieuwenhuis , Kirk

-Gennett, Scooter

-Guerra, Junior

-Maldonado, Martin

-Braun, Ryan

 

I agree with most of this. Barrios has a chance of being really good. I saw him in AA and he was lights out, reaching 98 with good control. If his arm is healthy, I would keep him in my back pocket.

 

I think Guerra is a trade only if blown away. If he is not traded this winter wait until mid summer.

[cjsportsfanatic100]

I agree, definitely makes sense. I think your original "LOL" was rude and in bad taste. I thought we were "better than that" on Brewerfan.

[IndyCrew]

Guerra reminds me of Fiers in the sense that he is over 30, has team control left, and every time he is out there, I feel like he could throw a shutout. I'd keep him another year unless I get a top prospect or two for him. The issue I have with him, is he will be 33-35 during our next window, so he has more value to other teams than to us.

 

I think Peralta has more value than most think, even if it is just as a #4 workhorse, and he is a realistic trade candidate.

 

I think we are in a great situation where we don't HAVE to trade anyone. If the deals aren't there, try at the deadline.

[AKCheesehead]

I agree with most of this. Barrios has a chance of being really good. I saw him in AA and he was lights out, reaching 98 with good control. If his arm is healthy, I would keep him in my back pocket.

Absolutely agreed. His injury was especially disappointing because his late callup last year was so tantalizing. Agree with the use of the term lights out. Hopefully he is able to regain that form.

[3and2Fastball]

Guerra is an injury waiting to happen. His jump in productivity is due to throwing pitches that are not sustainable for longterm health. They absolutely should trade him if they can get value

[adambr2]

I love the upside on Barrios as well, but I'm less optimistic about his future. Rotator cuff surgery is tougher to recover from than Tommy John. If he ever makes it back, there's a good chance he'll never be the same as he was.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm at a point where we're nearing a sit and wait. Braun is the Obvious winter trade candidate. Scooter Gennett is the 2nd most likely to trade off.

Garza is a sell-off on a trade so if/when it happens I expect very little in return which is why he's likely going to remain. Peralta I'd consider because he's just not bringing any upside. You can label him a #4 at this point. Maybe his finish will trigger some desire and higher return than I'd expect now. After them It's only RPs Boyer and Torres I'd try trading away just because of age and performance this year may net far higher than what they are worth.

 

Oh and Kirk Neiuwenhuis definitely can move on from him.

Also forgetting Maldonado.

 

Gotta keep Villar, Broxton, Santana, Perez, Susac, Guerra, Davies, and Thornburg.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm at a point where we're nearing a sit and wait. Braun is the Obvious winter trade candidate. Scooter Gennett is the 2nd most likely to trade off.

Garza is a sell-off on a trade so if/when it happens I expect very little in return which is why he's likely going to remain. Peralta I'd consider because he's just not bringing any upside. You can label him a #4 at this point. Maybe his finish will trigger some desire and higher return than I'd expect now. After them It's only RPs Boyer and Torres I'd try trading away just because of age and performance this year may net far higher than what they are worth.

 

Oh and Kirk Neiuwenhuis definitely can move on from him.

Also forgetting Maldonado.

 

Gotta keep Villar, Broxton, Santana, Perez, Susac, Guerra, Davies, and Thornburg.

 

Nieuwehuis has zero value. He'll likely be non-tendered if they can acquire an upgraded LH OF bat to fill his role and there will be guys available. Boyer is a FA and will be gone. Maldanado's value is as a backup, so would bring next to nothing on his own.

 

I really think they believe Peralta can return to his 2014 form and he's not going anywhere. Garza needs to be unloaded regardless of return just to clear a spot in the rotation. Even if they have to take on a similar bad contract of a position player, that's what they should do.

 

I get the assumption that Gennett will be traded, but I wouldn't expect a huge return, so I still see scenario where Gennett essentially platoons with Perez and Villar plays 3B against RHP. Scooter did not have a bad year by any stretch and he'll still be relatively cheap.

[clancyphile]

Given the paucity of free-agent starting pitching, and Garza's 2016 numbers not being awful (4.51 ERA), he could net a return similar to Adam Lind's last year.

 

Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra could also net good returns.

[JohnBriggs12]

Given the paucity of free-agent starting pitching, and Garza's 2016 numbers not being awful (4.51 ERA), he could net a return similar to Adam Lind's last year.

 

Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra could also net good returns.

 

The return for Guerra won't be equal to his upside for the Brewers. Should he post a full season of 30 starts with an ERA around 3, his trade value would skyrocket or the Brewers could just hold on to him as a tremendous value. Anderson can be moved but it would have to be part of a package. He's a reliable 4-5 starter that most teams probably aren't coveting. Teams still might view Nelson as having untapped upside and make offers for him.