Domingo Santana: could he be a star?

[Greenleaf1]

Not sure exactly what the situation with Santana has been since his return. Part of me thinks he is getting less playing time because of what seems like an attitude issue and the fact that he just wasn't performing well enough to guarantee himself a spot in the lineup.

 

Whatever the case may be, making him earn playing time seems to be working.

 

Since returning to the Brewers on August 19th: 21 G (14 GS), 64 PA, .304/.375/.536, 4 HR

 

Those numbers look even better in September: 10 G (9 GS), 38 PA, .343/.395/.686, 4 HR, 9 RBI

 

 

I really liked Santana at the end of last year. Great plate discipline and lots of power. If he can start hitting for average and improve his defense a little, he could be a star. I think he also stands out as a great option for LF next year if we trade Braun.

 

Very small sample size coming off the DL, but hey hitting a ton in a small sample size is better than not hitting at all in a small sample size. Hoping he can finish the season strong and carry over that success into next year.

[djoctagone]

i believe that the brewers were auditioning kirk nieuwenhuis as a waiver deadline trade candidate . . . hence santana's limited playing time in august.

[stoutdude04]

I really like Santana and think he will be a solid player, but not a star. I think he will OPS around 750-850. With 850 being his best year(s). His hands are so quick and he has easy power. Last night he hit a ball and it just shot off of his bat.

[pacopete4]

Just as long as we don't bat him leadoff, he is more than welcome to play right field for the Brewers. I would like to see him attempt first base though.

[Greenleaf1]

Only 34 players in the Major Leagues have an .850 OPS this year.

 

.850 OPS is a star.

[pogokat]

I think CoreY Hart is a decent comp---if he keeps developing, he could have some allstar years in the middle of his career, but i don't think he's going to be a perennial allstar.

[JackNicholson1974]

Corey Hart is a great comp. Was really looking forward to him in lineup all year. Hugely disappointed in his start and injury. Now performing how I expected. Hope he is part of future plans

[stoutdude04]

Only 34 players in the Major Leagues have an .850 OPS this year.

 

.850 OPS is a star.

 

If they do it for 1 year or 2 would they be considered a star? Honest question. I think he will be productive with a few great years. That was kind of my point in using the OPS numbers. I didnt mean to imply otherwise.

[Greenleaf1]

Agreed that Hart is a great comp. Hart might've been a little better in his prime than I'd expect from Santana due to his speed.

 

From 2007-2012, Hart with Milwaukee: .277/.335/.495 (.830 OPS), averaged 139 games, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 13 SB per season during that time.

 

That's a lot to project a player to be, but I think Santana has a good chance at getting close to that. If, like Hart, he could start learning to play 1B and play there from time to time once more of our OF prospects get called up that would certainly help his value.

[Greenleaf1]

Only 34 players in the Major Leagues have an .850 OPS this year.

 

.850 OPS is a star.

 

If they do it for 1 year or 2 would they be considered a star? Honest question. I think he will be productive with a few great years. That was kind of my point in using the OPS numbers. I didnt mean to imply otherwise.

 

I guess that's subjective. It depends on when those years would be, and I'm definitely not the best person to assess someone's capability for longevity. Santana is still pretty young though and even in a struggling year with injuries he has a .790 OPS in 61 games and has shown improvement in AVG/OBP/SLG over last year, having just turned 24 years old. I think if he stays healthy and gets regular playing time next year, we will get a good idea of what his actual production will be. If he can continue to improve when healthy and stay at around .800 OPS next year, we're going to have to find playing time for him.

 

Now as for whether that makes him a star? Maybe that word is a bit strong, since Corey Hart certainly never got much national attention despite being very good during our playoff years, but I think Santana could grow into a much loved player in Milwaukee doing not much more than what he's already doing. He's got loads of potential, I just hope he can live up to it.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Great plate discipline? GREAT???? 68 strikeouts in 184 at bats is great?

[MrTPlush]

Domingo Santana and Corey Hart is the comp I think of. However I don't think he will ever be on that level. Slightly above average player in my opinion.

 

Luckily for him Braun might be out the door this off season and we can move him to LF where he may fare better defensively.

[MrTPlush]

Great plate discipline? GREAT???? 68 strikeouts in 184 at bats is great?

 

As most define it:

 

Plate Discipline- Taking walks and having a nice difference between OBP and AVG.

 

Eye at plate/Contact- How much you strike out or swing/misses.

 

Though I feel like patience at the plate may be a more accurate way to describe what Santana does.

[stoutdude04]

Great plate discipline? GREAT???? 68 strikeouts in 184 at bats is great?

 

http://disciplesofuecker.com/domingo-santanas-efficiency/24075

Here is an article that touches on some of these things.

[Greenleaf1]

He had a 12.4% walk rate last year, which is pretty great. 12.6% this season, even better.

 

Whatever you want to call it, I was referring to his ability to take walks and get on base, even when his batting average was lower.

 

Strikeouts are only an indicator of poor plate discipline if he's swinging at tons of pitches out of the zone, which according to FanGraphs he's well below league average in O-Swing%.

 

Failure to hit pitches that are in the strike zone is a different issue, which explains his lower batting average last year, but it's already coming up this year and his strikeout percentage is down a few ticks even despite battling injuries.

[Jenkins5]

Great plate discipline? GREAT???? 68 strikeouts in 184 at bats is great?

 

Contact and being too selective are to issues with him. Striking out a lot is not directly collated with plate discipline. Chris Carter has outstanding plate discipline, however he simple just can't make enough contact. He K's a ton.

 

Since trade, I have preached Corey Hart Jr. May have an all-star year or two but most likely a reliable top of the order MLB OF. They have very similar body and tools outside of Hart being able to run a little more.

[MrTPlush]

being too selective are to issues with him

 

Ehh I don't particularly like it when people make this claim. It is easy to say that until he is less selective and his OBP% goes from .350 to .310.

 

Personally I will take a guy being selective and not jumping on fastballs which in a lot of cases end up as outs. Less selective means more first pitch outs happen and those really hurt. Unless you know you can crush them every time it just isn't worth it. I don't think Santana is the kind of hitter to capitalize enough to make it worth it.

[TheCrew07]

being too selective are to issues with him

 

Ehh I don't particularly like it when people make this claim. It is easy to say that until he is less selective and his OBP% goes from .350 to .310.

 

Personally I will take a guy being selective and not jumping on fastballs which in a lot of cases end up as outs. Less selective means more first pitch outs happen and those really hurt. Unless you know you can crush them every time it just isn't worth it. I don't think Santana is the kind of hitter to capitalize enough to make it worth it.

 

I think that's quite the generalization about hitting, this kind of stuff was analyzed to death back in the day, I couldn't find the much simplified study I was thinking of, but here's a more complicated explanation, it's very long winded, you can skip down and look at the charts. I want to say the original article I was read was on BP, but I couldn't find it via google, and I'm not a subscriber over there any more.

 

The chart at the bottom is fairly self explanatory.

 

Being selective is not about taking pitches, it's about waiting for your pitch, in your hitting zone, and then putting a good swing on it. If it's pitch 1 or pitch 12, that doesn't matter, hit your pitch, not the pitcher's. I said this about Weeks, he was easy to game plan, and most pitchers started him off with a get-me-over FB for strike 1... instead of getting that kind of a mistake pitch in a 2-1 or 3-1 count where he could/would attack it, he too often let the best pitch to hit in his AB go bye without even offering for the sake of taking a strike. Hitting numbers are rather abysmal when the hitter is down in the count, regardless of the actual count.

 

It's very important to take the first pitch if it's a ball, there's no substitute for being ahead in the count as a hitter, but to take a first pitch strike for the sake of a taking pitch just puts the batter on the wrong side of the curve.

 

I batted 1 or 2 my entire baseball career, I'm sure many others on this site did as well, and I'm sure just like me they took pitches to take pitches because they were good enough to get on base regardless of the count and it gave the hitters behind us more pitches to see. That's not really case for the majority of MLB hitters, what worked for us against scrub competition doesn't work against professionals, only best hitters can pull it off, and the statistics prove without a doubt what a poor strategy it is.

[homer]

I think most guys have a "spot" for pitch #1 and if the pitcher throws it in that spot they swing. The spot is in the strike zone obviously but is probably a very small window within that zone.

 

As for Domingo, I could be wrong but last time I looked I thought he was right around league average for first pitch strikes. Could be wrong about that though.

[DHonks]

I still stand by my Nelson Cruz comp. Tremendous power, nice eye, decent OF (can play passable CF), low-to-mid batting average. Only he's developing at an earlier age than Cruz

[FVBrewerFan]

Santana put up big numbers at every stop, and WAY young at every level. First extended MLB playing time last year and killed it. Great production this year since he came back. Only time he hasn't hit at that level was earlier this season when he was injured.

 

Can he be a star? Of course, he has always shown that. If he can stay healthy he has a very realistic chance of being one of the game's premier power hitters.

[adambr2]

Great plate discipline? GREAT???? 68 strikeouts in 184 at bats is great?

 

Contact and being too selective are to issues with him. Striking out a lot is not directly collated with plate discipline. Chris Carter has outstanding plate discipline, however he simple just can't make enough contact. He K's a ton.

 

Since trade, I have preached Corey Hart Jr. May have an all-star year or two but most likely a reliable top of the order MLB OF. They have very similar body and tools outside of Hart being able to run a little more.

 

Exactly. ..plate discipline is not synonymous with striking out less. Adam Dunn struck out more than anyone but had good plate discipline. You can also have terrible plate discipline and hardly ever strike out. (Johnny Estrada)

[monty57]

Everyone's definition of "star" is different, so it's hard to say if he'll be a "star."

 

I think he'll have an above average bat with poor defense. Not Ryan Braun who has an elite bat with poor defense, but still a starting MLB player. His defense will drag down his overall value somewhat, so he should be in consideration to maybe take a few reps at 1B, but his bat should keep him in the starting lineup.

 

He's a great talent to have on the team at this point, but his long-term future with the franchise will depend on how our other prospects pan out, and whether he is able to move to LF or 1B. Even with a good bat, I could see some of our other OFs (Brinson, Broxton, Phillips, etc) being more valuable than Santana down the road because while they can also hit, their defense will add value. We'll just have to wait to see which of those guys pan out, and where we are as a franchise when they get here.

 

Santana still has some growing to do, but he's shown the ability to hit MLB pitching at a young age, so it appears that he's at least an average starting MLB player. It's nice to know that Santana could be a long-term answer if some of our prospects fail, or good trade bait down the road if our prospects succeed.

[Greenleaf1]

He's still young and I don't ever recall his scouting report mentioning poor defense in the minor leagues. Given the fact that he has less than a year of major league service time, I'm still hoping he has the ability to improve his defense, although I have no idea how likely that is statistically.

 

If we keep Braun, moving to 1B would help his value tremendously so he can stay in the lineup more often. If we trade Braun, I'd say he slots into LF next year quite nicely, with Broxton in CF and eventually Brinson in RF. Once more prospects develop, maybe Phillips by 2018, it would benefit Santana to consider 1B for sure. Next year could be a great low stress way for him to gain some reps there, maybe an occasional start, before more playing time there would be required in the future for him to stay in the lineup.

[DHonks]

Greenleaf1, We've seen enough Alex Escobar can't miss prospects that I'm not sold on Brinson or Phillips or others. I'm really excited by their potential, but I'm not ready to move people around because of them yet. If the Brewers feel they are ready next year, or if they feel Wren could put up a .400 OBP, I'd consider makings moves of someone to 1b. But for now Carter is a great cheap option that will finish with 40 HR this year. He's doing as expected, only his OBP is lower than anticipated. I'd love to look at AA/AAA 1b options, or guys that are blocked to trade one of our OF prospects.