2006 raw draft order set, Brewers pick 16th

[DHonks]

one thing to remember is that if Helms can go somewhere and hit 20-25 homers, .260+ avg, and play decent defense, then that puts him in the top tier of 3b in the game. It's a sorry position these days, and Helms in 2003 wasn't far from being elite

[colbyjack]

A week to go...

 

2006 draft standings as of 9/26/05:

+/- ranking reflects how teams have risen/fallen since the last updated on 9/16/05

 

1. Royals (.342)

2. Pirates (.404)

3. Rockies (.413)

4. D-Rays (.417)

5. Mariners (.429)

6. Tigers (.445) -3

7. Dodgers (.445) -1

8. Orioles (.452) -3

9. D-Backs (.462) +3

10. Reds (.465)

11. Giants (.471) +4

12. Blue Jays (.490) -3

13. Rangers (.494)

14. Cubs (.494)

15. Brewers (.497) -2

16. Padres (.497)

17. Nationals (.500) -1

18. Mets (.503) +6

19. Twins (.503)

20. Marlins (.513)

21. Phillies (.538)

22. Astros (.545)

23. Athletics (.548)

24. Braves (.571) -1

25. Angels (.574) +1

26. Red Sox (.587) -2

27. Yankees (.587) +1

28. Indians (.590) +1

29. White Sox (.606)

30. Cardinals (.618)

[ja002h]

So I guess we should root hard for the Nats, Mets, and Padres.

[gregmag]

Patrick, I haven't seen a thread in the forum about your draft recap article, so I just want to thank you for the hard work. As always, it's an awesomely informative feature, and a big highlight of the dog days.

 

I have one small suggestion. Perhaps you could include each player's birth date with his listing. Age is so important in projecting prospects, and knowing that a prospect is a college or HS draftee doesn't quite nail it down. Just a thought.

 

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

Thanks Greg, and that's a good suggestion.

[ja002h]

Well, for this year, at least, we can be happy that we had such a big collapse last year. We're currently tied for 13th with SD, FL, and MIN. Which according to the "worst year before" tiebreaker, means that we are 16th, or the #15 pick.

 

So as long as we don't win more games than the other teams this weekend, we're golden!

[molitor fan]

Simply put, if the Nationals lose to the Phils tomorrow, the Brewers will draft 16th or later, no matter what the Brewers do tomorrow.....

[colbyjack]

With one day left (and a few night games to finish), the Brewers would draft 16th next June. They currently are tied with the Nationals with a .503 winning percentage, and the Nats own the tie-breaker since they were worse in '04, and have Ryan Zimmerman, not Ryan Braun, to show for it.

 

And that would stay the same regardless of what happens this evening. If the Marlins and Padres lose, they would be tied with the Nats & Brewers, but finished much better in '04. I find it impossible to root against the Brewers tomorrow, so I'm just hoping the teams that have a few Boras impending free agents don't offer their clients arbitration knowing how expensive such players can get http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Depending on what happens tonight and tomorrow, the Brewers can finish as high as the 14th overall pick and as low as the 18th overall selection. Since the 14th or 15th pick requires losing, let's hope for 18. Drafting anywhere from the 14th to 18th pick will mark the lowest slot the Brewers have owned since 1993, surprise surprise, the year after 1992, and the year they took Jeff D'Amico with their first overall selection (23rd overall).

 

If you want to blame a team for this, blame the Nationals, whose 2nd half slide was pretty bad, although expected given their "luck" in 1-run games during the first-half of the season.

 

The Royals will pick first next June, but that has been known since this past June. Given how long it took them to sign Gordon, I'm making a bet right now that they don't come close to picking the best player available. Does anyone care to take me up on that bet? I didn't think so, sorry Royals fans.

[colbyjack]

No true molitor fan. If the Rangers win tonight and tomorrow and the Brewers lose, the Rangers and Brewers would tie with 81-81 records. Since the Brewers finished worse in '04, they would be given the higher draft selection.

[molitor fan]

Texas just lost.....I like when my mistakes only last for ten minutes or so....

[colbyjack]

Nice save molitor fan http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

15th is now the worst the team can finish. But again, that requires a Brewers' loss, and I can't bring myself to rooting for that.

 

Plus, I want to see the Brew Crew stomp Zach Duke tomorrow so he knows exactly what he has to deal with over the next 4-6 years http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[colbyjack]

Ok, one day to go, here are your standings. Draft-pick implications discussed above...

 

2006 draft standings as the morning of 10/02/05:

+/- ranking reflects how teams have risen/fallen since the last update on 9/25/05

 

1. Royals (.348)

2. Rockies (.410) -1

3. Pirates (.410) +1

4. D-Rays (.416)

5. Mariners (.429)

6. Tigers (.441)

7. Dodgers (.441)

8. Orioles (.453)

9. Reds (.454) -1

10. Giants (.460) -1

11. D-Backs (.478) +2

12. Blue Jays (.491)

13. Rangers (.491)

14. Cubs (.491)

15. Nationals (.503) -2

16. Brewers (.503) +1

17. Padres (.503) +1

18. Marlins (.509) -2

19. Twins (.509)

20. Mets (.516) +2

21. Phillies (.540)

22. A's (.540) -1

23. Astros (.546) +1

24. Braves (.559)

25. Indians (.578) -3

26. Angels (.584) +1

27. Red Sox (.584) +1

28. Yankees (.590) +1

29. White Sox (.609)

30. Cardinals (.615)

[ja002h]

Cmon Nats, you can do it.

 

edit: Looks doubtful. Well that stinks.

 

Maybe we won't have a Type A signing anyway...

[Big Reed]

the nats lost, so it looks like the 16th pick is ours. it would have been nice to be in the top 15 circle to have some flexibility. perhaps some teams will decide not to offer their players arbitration. and perhaps this year the brewers will be willing to wait a couple of more days before signing the free agent.

 

i have a question. can the brewers contact a prospective free agent and make an offer to them before they are offered or declined arby? or would that be considered tampering?

 

example: Washburn wants to return to the Angels. Millwood may want to return to the indians. can the brewers talk to these free agents and offer them a contract before the angels and indians decide to offer them arby?

 

I'm not saying signing them. I'm just talking about making them an offer. I seem to recall the Yankees did something like this with sheffield where they had sort of a verbal under the table agreement but would not sign him until after they knew he wasn't going to offered a contract.

[PeaveyFury]

example: Washburn wants to return to the Angels. Millwood ma ywant t oreturn to the indians. can the brewers talk to these free agents and offer them a contract before the angels and indians decide to offer them arby?

 

They can sign free agents whenever they'd like after the free agency period begins, as they did with Damian Miller, who was later offered arby by the A's.

 

But if we were to sign a player before the deadline, their previous teams would offer them arby for certain since they're guaranteed the picks at no risk to themselves.

[Big Reed]

but couldn't we just kind of talk to them and make them an offer, and then agree with them to wait until after the deadline to sign them? last year we signed Miller before the deadline and it cost us a pick for doing so. I'm not so sure Oakland was actually going to offer Miller arby.

 

So couldn't we work on the sly and have everything in place, and then agree to wait until after the deadline to sign them? and keep our pick?

 

I recall one of our draft picks in the early nineties signed within hours after we drafted him. it was kind of obvious we had already made an under the table pre draft deal.

 

couldn't we do something similar with a free agent?

 

it would appear that our better alternative is to make a trade and acquire a player with a larger salary than to get squeezed in a bidding war for a free agent and then end up losing our first round draft pick as part of the bidding war. I would hate to win a bidding war for Washburn and then end up losing our first round draft pick for doing so.

[DHonks]

Maybe we won't have a Type A signing anyway...

 

ja002h,

wouldn't you rather have a stud signing than a guy getting a $2 million signing bonus, knowing they may never reach AA?

[colbyjack]

Reed, your scenario is possible, but it's likely that the proposed team about to lose such a free agent would also know if such a deal was going to take place. I think it would be difficult to work out such a deal while keeping it quiet from everyone else. The player himself is likely to tell his former team, or just about anyone else that asks, if he is in serious negotiations with any other teams.

 

As noted, the team may not even dabble with the free agent market. Doug Melvin noted today that he doesn't expect to be active on a lackluster free agent market. Of course, Melvin has said one thing and done quite the opposite before. On top of that, the Indians, Angels and Dodgers may not even offer Millwood, Washburn and/or Weaver arbitration, which could change everything.

 

Final 2006 Raw Draft Order:

 

1. Royals (.346)

2. Rockies (.414)

3. Devil Rays (.414)

4. Pirates (.414)

5. Mariners (.426)

6. Tigers (.438)

7. Dodgers (.438)

8. Reds (.451)

9. Orioles (.457)

10. Giants (.463)

11. Diamondbacks (.475)

12. Rangers (.488)

13. Cubs (.488)

14. Blue Jays (.494)

15. Nationals (.500)

16. Brewers (.500)

17. Padres (.506)

18. Mets (.512)

19. Marlins (.512)

20. Twins (.512)

21. Phillies (.543)

22. Athletics (.543)

23. Astros (.549)

24. Braves (.556)

25. Indians (.574)

26. Angels (.586)

27. Red Sox (.586)

28. Yankees (.586)

29. White Sox (.611)

30. Cardinals (.617)

[ja002h]

wouldn't you rather have a stud signing than a guy getting a $2 million signing bonus, knowing they may never reach AA?

 

Oh I completely agree, DHonks, it's just too bad that we were 1 win from not losing that pick. I'd gladly trade it for Millwood any day.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Colby, I will take you up on that, what is the wager????? The Royals will take the best player (Andrew Miller) and they will sign him. Might be kind of ugly if he wants Mark Prior money.

 

Royals can't afford the PR hit, their attendance is terrible and they have a chance to add a second franchise type of player (Gordon being the 1st).

 

 

How about a $1, of course of Miller blows his arm out they won't draft him but they will not pull a SD (Bush) move.

[colbyjack]

Royals can't afford the PR hit, their attendance is terrible and they have a chance to add a second franchise type of player (Gordon being the 1st).

 

There aren't too many teams that let a bad PR hit affect how they draft. I remember some Pirates fans saying the same thing in '02 when they took Bryan Bullinton over B.J. Upton.

 

I seriously think they got lucky with Gordon. If he wasn't so set on playing pro baseball he could have easily called the Royals bluff and waited for more money, and I'm not so sure the Royals would have given him much more. I'm not blaming either side, really, as I pointed out above that $4 million dollars is still a huge chunk of change.

 

I am glad someone took me up on my wager, it makes things more interesting. I'll gladly bet you $1. I'm not a betting man as far as money is concerned, so that is a big step for me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . If the Royals end up taking the perceived #1 player next June, whether it's Andrew Miller or someone else, I'll gladly send you a buck. I still think they reach for a player that is considered a top 10 talent that is willing to sign for $4 million or so similar to Bryan Bullington in '02.

[DHonks]

it's not bad PR. It's a joke to most fans that these kids are willing to hold out to get "an extra $500,000". Most fans support organizations that don't give in to foolishness.

 

And Colby, it'll be interesting. Let's look at some facts.

-We know Washburn and Morris have WI connections.

-We know that Washburn may not be invited back to the Angels for what he wants.

-We know that Morris may be the odd-man out (they have to pay Carpenter, Mulder, and soon Marquis), how much can they possibly invest in their rotation?

-I've also heard the two things I posted in the Majors Forum...that Sheets and Burnett are good friends, and Burnett would gladly come to Milwaukee if they are willing to pay him. And Morris lives north of Chicago and doesn't stay in the team hotel when the Cards are in town.

-finally, we know Weaver was kicked out of Detroit due in part because of attitude. Another factor was habitual drug usage.

 

So if the Crew wants to spend some money on guys, a) potential free agents have some level of interest in the Brewers if their teams don't want them back, b) it needs to happen quickly so they'll know whether or not to offer arby to Ohka et al, and c) they'll likely have to give up draft picks to do so.

[RyDogg66]

It has probably already been mentioned, but I missed it. Why is Washington ahead of us with the same record? Is it because they finished worse than us last year? Hardly fair that they can keep their pick but we lose ours when we finish the same.

[colbyjack]

Yes, tie-breakers are awarded to the team that finished worse the previous season.

[Cyanogen5]

I really don't think this is that big of a deal. I don't expect us to be active in the free agent market anyway simply because the talent available is not that great. I expect a couple of 2 for 1 trades to go down however...us trading quantity for quality for once. That will help alleviate any percieved 40-man roster crunch, and hopefully add some top notch talent as well. I am very excited to see what Melvin is able to pull off this off season.