2006 raw draft order set, Brewers pick 16th

[colbyjack]

EDIT: Edited subject pertaining to most recent posts, new date

 

I'm not necessarily looking ahead to next year as much as I enjoy looking at how teams are doing based on the reverse order of the standings. Remember, they don't altnerate between leagues anymore, and tie-breakers are awarded to the team that was worse the season before. Obviously a long time to go, but it's nice to see the Brewers ahead of all of the NL West teams (I hope one of those teams gets hot so they actually deserve to be in the playoffs).

 

Anyway, enjoy. It will be nice to wait a few picks, and save some dough, by not picking within the top 2-7 picks.

 

1. Rockies

2. Royals

3. Devil Rays

4. Pirates

5. Mariners

6. Giants

7. Reds

8. Dodgers

9. Tigers

10. Diamondbacks

11. Padres

12. Orioles

13. Brewers

14. Mets

15. Cubs

16. Blue Jays

17. Rangers

18. Indians

19. Phillies

20. Twins

21. Marlins

22. Nationals

23. Astros

24. Yankees

25. Athletics

26. Red Sox

27. Angels

28. Braves

29. Cardinals

30. White Sox

[thevaccinator27]

Woot! Double digits.

 

The last time that happened was 2001, right? Krynzel?

[jwaltz]

Krynzel was 2000. Mike Jones was 2001.

 

Lucky 13 baby!!! Hopefully we can end up with lucky 15, 16, or 17.

[H0FFY]

I seem to remember a similar list last year, and amazingly, day by day we climbed toward the top (of the draft order). Let the climbing begin.

[colbyjack]

At one point last summer, I believe in early June, the Brewers were the 7th best team in baseball. At least the Brewers started their dramatic freefall much earlier in the season last year.

[colbyjack]

2006 draft standing as of 9/1/05:

+/- ranking reflects how teams have risen/fallen in the last month

 

1. Royals (.328) -1

2. Rockies (.391) +1

3. D-Rays (.410)

4. Pirates (.414)

5. Mariners (.424)

6. Giants (.447)

7. D-Backs (.452) -3

8. Dodgers (.459)

9. Reds (.470) +2

10. Orioles (.470) -2

11. Cubs (.474) -4

12. Rangers (.481) -5

13. Tigers (.485) +4

14. Brewers (.489) +1

15. Blue Jays (.500) -1

16. Padres (.500) +5

17. Nationals (.519) -5

18. Mets (.523) +4

19. Marlins (.526) -2

20. Twins (.526)

21. Astros (.530) -2

22. Phillies (.534) +3

23. Indians (.556) +5

24. Angels (.561) -3

25. Braves (564) -3

26. Athletics (.568) +1

27. Yankees (.568) +3

28. Red Sox (.588) +2

29. White Sox (.611) -1

30. Cardinals (.634) +1

[SheetsCyYoung04]

We have to stay 15 and under to not lose a first rounder if by some chance we go after Millwood, right?

[DHonks]

is losing a first rounder worth them? yes. And the other benefit it you can overpay for several kids that you know are worth it, rather than overpay for a first rounder who may not be worth what he's asking

[deeswan]

I seem to remember a similar list last year, and amazingly, day by day we climbed toward the top (of the draft order). Let the climbing begin.

 

Hoffy, your cynicism is starting to rival Geno's. I know you don't like Ned Yost, but how can you be so down on a team that is clearly better than last year and will clearly finish better than last year despite losing one of the game's top pitchers for 2 months of the season?

[mothershipconnection]

We have to stay 15 and under to not lose a first rounder if by some chance we go after Millwood, right?

Yup, if we sign a type A free agent and draft in the first half, we give up a second rounder as compensation, while we'd lose a first rounder if we draft in the second half. Given the amount of love this organization has for the draft, I'm hoping we'd only be faced with the loss of a second rounder, since I have a feeling that potentially losing a first rounder would cause the team to hesitate much more in going after a FA who is type A but less than top-notch.

[H0FFY]

Hoffy, your cynicism is starting to rival Geno's. I know you don't like Ned Yost, but how can you be so down on a team that is clearly better than last year and will clearly finish better than last year despite losing one of the game's top pitchers for 2 months of the season?

 

swan, I thought cynicism wore off a post after a month; actually, I am super happy we have not dove; I think we are going to be OK; I sure hope we stay in the top 15 as we are going to sign one goodie pitcher this off season.

 

I dont like or dislike Ned. I like the players are said to really like playing for him. I like that he is so loyal. I dislike when he shows favoritism at the expense of the team. I dislike when he relies on GUT feelings rather than trying to get the best matchups.

 

To be honest, recently he is doing a much better job.

 

I am now down on our team at all, except for their performances with RISP. This is a good team and full of future. But I dont want them to relax and take a good future as a given. They have to make it happen.

[clancyphile]

My hopes, too. Get Millwood to go with Sheets, Cappy, Sharpie, and DE.

[Mass Haas]

As of Friday AM, 17th pick...a guy like Washburn would cost a first rounder...

[colbyjack]

Here are your mid-month standings:

 

2006 draft standings as of 9/16/05:

+/- ranking reflects how teams have risen/fallen in the last two weeks

 

1. Royals (.333)

2. Pirates (.400) -2

3. Rockies (.407) +1

4. D-Rays (.408) +1

5. Mariners (.438)

6. D-Backs (.449) -1

7. Giants (.452) +1

8. Dodgers (.459)

9. Tigers (.462) -4

10. Reds (.469) +1

11. Orioles (.476) +1

12. Mets (.486) -6

13. Rangers (.490) +1

14. Cubs (.490) +3

15. Blue Jays (.497)

16. Padres (.497)

17. Brewers (.500) +3

18. Nationals (.517) +1

19. Twins (.517) -1

20. Marlins (.531) +1

21. Phillies (.531) -1

22. Astros (.534) +1

23. Athletics (.555) -3

24. Angels (.555)

25. Braves (.571)

26. Yankees (.572)

27. Indians (.575) +4

28. Red Sox (.582)

29. White Sox (.607)

30. Cardinals (.635)

 

As Mass Haas noted, the Brewers at this point in time would draft 17th overall, and would forfeit their first-round pick if they sign a type A or B free agent this offseason.

 

It will be interesting to see how the Pirates, Rockies and D-Rays play over the last couple of weeks to see who ends up with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th overall picks. Given how long it is taking the Royals to sign Alex Gordon, you have to wonder if they'll go cheap with the first overall selection next June, despite having a great opportunity to improve their ballclub.

[brewerjamie15]

Thanks for the list Patrick. Seems odd to me that a team tht very well could win their division would pick ahead of a team that did not make the post season, but oh well.

 

Could you explain type A or B free agents to me? I don't hang out in these parts too often ya know.

[colbyjack]

I commented on the Padres in my Crack of the Bat column this past week at Perfect Game. The NL West is just plain horrible.

 

I'll do my best to explain type A/B free agents. In the offseason, the Elias Sports Bureau assigns rankings to all free agents (and actually all players I believe). Players that finish within the top X (I don't know the exact percentile) percent of their position over the last two years (I think it's based on the last two years) are labeled type A free agents, basically the best of the players available within their position. The next tier are type B free agents, and then type C free agents.

 

Teams that sign a type A free agent forfeit their first or second round pick (depending on where they finish, teams that are among the 15 worst teams-those that pick in the 1-15 range-in the league do not lose their first-round pick, those that pick within 16-30 do lose their first-rounder) and the team that lost that type A free agent is also awarded a supplemental pick in the sandwich round after round 1. Teams that sign a type B free agent forfeit their first or second round pick (again dependent on where the signing team finished the year before) to the team that they signed the player away from. No sandwich picks are awarded for type B free agents.

 

Type C free agents signed don't cost the signing team anything, but a comp pick after the 2nd round is awarded to the team that lost the player as long as that player has never been a free agent before.

 

However, if a team does not offer a free agent arbitration the type rankings are thrown out the window, and a team does not forfeit any draft picks should they sign a free agent that was not offered arbitration. This is becoming more and more prevalent, as teams are worried that if they offer one of their free agents arbitration and that player does not draw any interest on the free agent market, that team is stuck with that player (who will cost more than he did the year before).

 

If teams sign multiple type A/B free agents, their picks are lost in order of the Elias ranking. For instance, and this is purely hypothetical, if the Brewers signed type A free agent Jarrod Washburn, whose rating was 98.7, type A free agent Bill Mueller, whose rating was 84.5, and type B free agent Todd Hollandsworth, whose rating was 73.5, the Angels would receive the Brewers' first-round pick, the Red Sox would get the Brewers' second round pick while the Braves would receive the Brewers' third round pick.

 

The supplemental first round order is determined by the teams' record from the year before. So, if the Angels, Rockies and Cubs all lose a type A free agent, the Rockies would get the first pick, the Cubs the second and the Angels the third, regardless of the Elias rankings.

 

That is why drafting 15th versus 16th could make a huge difference. With so many people expecting the Brewers to be active on the free agent market, signing a type A or B free agent would be the difference between losing our first or second round pick. Plus, keep in mind that teams have until mid-December or so to offer free agents arbitration. If we sign a free agent around the Winter Meetings, in early December, that would pretty much automatically mean the Brewers forfeit the first or second rounder. If they wait until mid to late December to sign free agents, possibly waiting to see who is or isn't offered arbitration, they may not lose any of their picks.

 

Of course, with the playoffs seeming more and more realistic in years to come, I think most people could care less if the team has a first-round pick or not. Losing the first-round pick would make draft-day somewhat lackluster, but we could be encouraged that the Brewers found a way to spend second round money on a talented young ballplayer in Rolando Pascual on the international free agent market since they didn't have a 2nd round pick by signing Damian Miller last offseason.

 

I hope that helps.

[Cyanogen5]

I was under the impression that signing a type "B" free agent would require, at best, a 2nd round pick. Did you make a typo, or have I misunderstood the rule?

[brewerjamie15]

Patrick thanks for the help, I think I'm getting it. I'll have to look at it again to re-learn some of it after my head stops hurting....

[colbyjack]

I was under the impression that signing a type "B" free agent would require, at best, a 2nd round pick. Did you make a typo, or have I misunderstood the rule?

 

No typo, a type B free agent has the same effect on the signing team, the only difference between a type A and type B is that a type B free agent doesn't bring a supplemental pick to the team that lost them. If you don't believe me, this is from Baseball America:

 

A team losing a Type A free agent gets the first-round pick of the team that signs the player, as well as a supplemental pick. A team losing a Type B free agent receives only the signing team's top pick. In both cases, a team selecting in the top half of the draft rotation cannot lose its first-round pick. The loss of a Type C free agent provides a team a pick between the second and third rounds.

[Cyanogen5]

Trust me, I believe you colby...just double checking in case a mistake was made http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif I was thinking the other day that having a later pick would make guessing who our #1 pick would be would be more interesting. Now I am wondering if we will have a #1 pick at all. I guess it wouldn't be horrible to try to fill our needs internally...keep Ohka, start Eveland or Sarfate etc. I was really looking forward to them being active in the free agent market...Now I have no idea what the Brewers plans might be!

[SheetsCyYoung04]

I hope you dont mind Colby, I used your post to explain FA compensation to the ESPN board. That truely is an outstanding explanation.

 

edit: What are the chances we could get a type C compensation for Wes Helms?

[colbyjack]

I don't mind at all SheetsCY04.

 

If Helms falls under the type C classification, I think that's a very good call. Since he had a lousy year last year and has played only sparingly this year, I think there is a good chance he would indeed fall under that classification. We would still have to offer him arbitration, and hope he doesn't bite, because if he does we would be paying him about what we paid him this year. I know the team offered John Vander Wal arbitration a few years ago, asking him to decline out of goodwill so they could continue to have the opportunity to sign him later (teams can't sign players that are declined arbitration until the following May or June). Still, again assuming he would be a type C, he wouldn't cost his signing team a draft pick, and he hasn't been a free agent before. That will be an interesting case to follow this offseason.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Thanks Colby, it would be nice to have an extra pick for once. Did the Brewers never offer Jose Hernandez free agent arby, because I always found it odd that that the Brewers did not get any compansation for their all-star shortstop? Seeing as I think Helms has made no secret about wanting a bigger role maybe there is a chance that he would not accept a Brewer offer. Or maybe out of goodness he would turn one down, because we have given him alot of money the last two years.

[mothershipconnection]

If I'm Wes Helms, there's no way I turn down the arby offer to stay with my buddy Ned on the bench and get paid more than I would elsewhere.

[colbyjack]

You're correct SheetsCY04, the Brewers didn't offer Jose Hernandez arbitration. I'm sure they were worried that he would accept, as he sure wasn't going to get the kind of money he was making with the Brewers, even though it wasn't that much, on the free agent market. And of course that was coming off of the big strikeout season for Jose, so there was no way he was coming back to Milwaukee.

 

Helms might do the Brewers a favor and decline arbitration, but mc is right, if he recognizes that he can make a million or two more by calling the Brewers' bluff, I don't think that is worth a supplemental pick after the 2nd round.