Thornburg

[MrTPlush]

Yah nothing makes me want to go to or watch a game less than watching someone blow it in the 8th/9th on a daily basis.

[reillymcshane]

The number one reason the 2012 Brewers did not return to the playoffs was not so much that Fielder was gone (the Brewers led the NL in runs scored that year), but that the late inning relief collapsed historically.

The bullpen in 2012 was really awful. From baseballreference.com here are relievers from that year:

 

Axford: -1.2 WAR

Hernandez: -1.0 WAR

Parra: -0.9 WAR

Loe: -0.8 WAR

Chulk: -0.4 WAR

McClendon: -0.3 WAR

Rodriguez: -0.2 WAR

Dillard: -0.1 WAR

Total: -4.9 WAR

 

On the positive side, Veras, Thornburg, Stinson, Kintzler and Henderson combined for just 1.7 WAR.

 

That's just brutal.

[billymac]

Rockies have a good farm system and they acknowledged that they would be looking for relievers this winter.

 

What if we offered Thornburg for Ryan McMahon and one of their top arms? McMahon is blocked by Arenado and coming off a down year. He is still only 21 in AA. We need an upper level 3rd baseman with promise.

[reillymcshane]

Rockies have a good farm system and they acknowledged that they would be looking for relievers this winter.

 

What if we offered Thornburg for Ryan McMahon and one of their top arms? McMahon is blocked by Arenado and coming off a down year. He is still only 21 in AA. We need an upper level 3rd baseman with promise.

Big concern with McMahon is his defense. He led all 3B in the minors in errors two years running (2014-15) with 32 and 39 errors. The got moved to 1B last year - playing 1/2 his games there. He had 17 errors at 3B last year in 67 games - so he was right on pace with his previous years.

 

As for his hitting, he weirdly struggled against righties last season. Maybe a fluke. Who knows. Maybe others have some perspective on him.

 

As noted, my big concern is McMahon's defense. If he can't play 3B, his value really drops.

 

Despite striking out a bit too much, I liked his bat coming into 2016. The guy had 67 xbh in 2014 and 2015 - that's pretty good.

[splitterpfj]

"Hi Brewers, this is Cubs. Chapman signed somewhere else, let's talk about Thornburg." (just being, "that guy")

 

I don't expect the Brewers to deal Thornburg this winter, but I don't know how the trade market for closers will go either. It got crazy hot during the season this year, so maybe that goes on again in December, I don't know. My bet would be an attempt to deal Thornburg in-season, when teams are more pressed to upgrade.

[billymac]

I'd like to see Thornburg go to the Red Sox for a package headlining Michael Kopech. Sox looking for a setup man and I know Kopech has had some off the field issues, but he's got a big arm and lighting up the AFL. Reminds me of Syndergaard and could very well be the TOR starter in just a few years.

[Eye Black]

Heading into his age 32 season, Mark Melancon is reportedly on the verge of signing a 4-year, greater than $60 million free agent contract. I realize Melancon has a much longer track record than Tyler Thornburg, but it isn't a stretch to envision Thornburg as a better reliever moving forward.

 

I am fine with the Brewers holding on to Thornburg or even looking to extend him at some point down the road a year or two, but I have a feeling there are going to be some enticing offers for him this off-season and leading up to next year's trade deadline. In my opinion Thornburg is a more valuable trade chip than Will Smith if the Brewers decide to go that route.

[reillymcshane]

Heading into his age 32 season, Mark Melancon is reportedly on the verge of signing a 4-year, greater than $60 million free agent contract. I realize Melancon has a much longer track record than Tyler Thornburg, but it isn't a stretch to envision Thornburg as a better reliever moving forward.

 

I am fine with the Brewers holding on to Thornburg or even looking to extend him at some point down the road a year or two, but I have a feeling there are going to be some enticing offers for him this off-season and leading up to next year's trade deadline. In my opinion Thornburg is a more valuable trade chip than Will Smith if the Brewers decide to go that route.

If Thornburg pitches in 2017 like he did last year, he'll be worth a ton at the trade deadline. As you say, more than Smith.

 

One thing almost every contending teams can use at the deadline is relief pitching. A lot of teams know what a relief ace can do in the post season. Cubs, Indians, Nats, Rangers, Giants, Cardinals - every one of these teams went out and got a quality reliever at the deadline (Chapman, Miller, Melancon, Jeffress, Smith, Duke).

[Devinep]

There might be some mid season desperation at the deadline, but there are more openings than closers available right now. It may be good to capitalize right now on the crazy reliever market.

 

I would mind getting Candelario(3B)+ from the Cubs. They may think Strop, Edwards or anyone else who wears their hats like an idiot can close (bring back Rodney then), but their bullpen is their only sort of weak spot.

[billymac]

There might be some mid season desperation at the deadline, but there are more openings than closers available right now. It may be good to capitalize right now on the crazy reliever market.

 

I would mind getting Candelario(3B)+ from the Cubs. They may think Strop, Edwards or anyone else who wears their hats can close (bring back Rodney then), but their bullpen is their only sort of weak spot.

 

Nothing short of Eloy Jimenez, Happ and Calendario to start if dealing with Cubs

[MKE81]

Thornburg is definitely bringing back more than Smith, both now and at the deadline. If you get a great offer now, similar to what you'd expect at the break, then trade him otherwise wait til then.