Thornburg

[Madhawk23]

What would Tyler be worth in the trade market this off season? He's been unbelievable impressive this year, and has flourished in his short time in the closer role since the deadline. I know he's not a F/A until 2020, so do you hold onto him until the trade deadline next summer, when the market for relievers might be through the roof again - or do you strike this off season and not risk injury (which he has had history there) or his production falling off?

[madbad2000]

I keep him. He is young, controllable and lights out. If you put a longer track record on him, you get a more significant package. We need to maximize his value and in order to do that we need that longevity. We could get a nice chip this offseason. If things keep up, we could get some excellent chips.

[Madhawk23]

I hear you there, but what if a shoulder injury rears its ugly head again and we lose him for a significant amount of time next year? I guess that's the risk you take with any player, and I'm certainly not advocating for getting rid of Tburg already, but I just hope that we maximize his trade value - whenever that time may come. Probably worth keeping him through the deadline next year and hope that he continues this dominant run. If he does, I'd have to think that we'd be able to get a couple of really nice trade chips in return from a contending team in need of pen help.

[reillymcshane]

What would Tyler be worth in the trade market this off season? He's been unbelievable impressive this year, and has flourished in his short time in the closer role since the deadline. I know he's not a F/A until 2020, so do you hold onto him until the trade deadline next summer, when the market for relievers might be through the roof again - or do you strike this off season and not risk injury (which he has had history there) or his production falling off?

I think it all depends. It doesn't hurt to listen. Look what the Phillies got for Giles last off season. It just takes one team to make that leap.

 

However, teams in need of a quality reliever have the luxury of the Free Agent market in the off season, so I imagine clubs will be reluctant to give up a ton of prospects if they can just throw money at the problem. Of course, that's not an option for some clubs, so again - can't hurt to ask.

 

As for his value - right now my guess it's in the 'what we got for Will Smith' ballpark - mid-Top 100 guy, plus another guy. Tyler doesn't have the track record guys like Miller have, but his 2016 has just been outstanding - top 10 in baseball if you look at bWAR and fWAR.

 

Your best value might be at the trade deadline next year - assuming Thornburg keeps pitching lights out. Teams are desperate at this time and pitching seems to extract the best results in the middle of a pennant race.

 

The best part is that you wait for a king's ransom. If it doesn't happen - just enjoy having Tyler. But if a great deal comes along - grab it. Relief pitching is often very volatile for most guys. That's why guys like Chapman and Miller are so valuable. They kick butt year-after-year - meaning you can trust them to do well again next year.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think they trade him this offseason. Thornburg has put up elite stats. If he can be similar to this in the closers role next season he could have mega value at the deadline. At that point I think we either trade him away or try to get an extension with him. We either need to maximize his value on the trade market or make sure we can keep him around while we are competing. We have a lot of guys coming through the minors that look like they can be very good bullpen arms. Keeping Thornburg does seem like a huge need.

[Roderick]

I hear you there, but what if a shoulder injury rears its ugly head again and we lose him for a significant amount of time next year?

 

Considering that this year was his first year strictly out of the pen, I think other teams would want to see more before given him any credit towards being a very good 8/9 guy in the pen. So trading deadline.

 

Plus another half a season of healthy play, I would assume that any 2014 elbow concerns would be gone.

[Greenleaf1]

I think most of us saw this in Thornburg back in 2014 when he was incredible for a month before injuring himself, and now that he's staying healthy he's living up to the original potential.

 

I have no doubt that if Thornburg can stay healthy he will be a great closer next year. I think his greatest value to us is to trade him though, given that teams are drastically overpaying for bullpen help these days and a rebuilding team doesn't really need a closer. By the time we're ready to compete again, he'll be earning a solid chunk of money in arbitration (assuming he keeps performing at the level we'd want him to perform at), and soon after we might lose him to free agency anyways. His injury past is a little too risky to offer a long term extension to try to keep his cost down, so I vote we trade him.

 

I think if he pitches this well (or close) to the trade deadline next year, he'll be at his highest trade value. Get him another 20 or so saves under his belt and I'd say we're looking at a pretty strong return: some team's #1 or #2 prospect plus another solid prospect and another throw in wouldn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me if he has another half season like this season. If he regresses a little, then maybe take away the 3rd prospect in the deal but I still think he could net a nice return.

[MrTPlush]

I think most of us saw this in Thornburg back in 2014 when he was incredible for a month before injuring himself, and now that he's staying healthy he's living up to the original potential.

 

Yup this is exactly why he was a top prospect in the first place...because of his back end of the bullpen potential. Sure isn't much of a surprise.

[MKE81]

I don't think they trade him this offseason. Thornburg has put up elite stats. If he can be similar to this in the closers role next season he could have mega value at the deadline. At that point I think we either trade him away or try to get an extension with him. We either need to maximize his value on the trade market or make sure we can keep him around while we are competing. We have a lot of guys coming through the minors that look like they can be very good bullpen arms. Keeping Thornburg does seem like a huge need.

Spot on. I wouldn't extend him at all based on the current direction of the organization coupled with the amount of pen arms coming through the system over the next 2-3yrs starting next year. If the market stays the same next year as this past deadline then he'll bring back an outstanding haul - better than Smith/Jeffress.

[LouisEly]

The best part is that you wait for a king's ransom. If it doesn't happen - just enjoy having Tyler.

Bingo. In the last 15 seasons only two World Series winning teams have had pitching staffs with an average age under 28 - the 2003 Marlins (26.1) and the 2010 Giants (27.5). The median is closer to 30; the Cubs this year is 30.4, with only one starter is under the age of 30, so if it is weighted by innings the average age is higher. The Marlins are likely the outlier with 21-year-old Willis and 23-year-old Beckett, and the heavy amount of innings they pitched at such young ages may very well have contributed to the early ending of their careers (Beckett was saddled with injuries at 30, Willis was washed up by age 26/27).

 

If you're on the way down I can see getting rid of pitchers when they are 27/28, and if Braun is moved then there certainly is justification to believe the Brewers won't compete for 3-4 years. But there is no rush to trade pitchers who are 27 unless you get an offer that is too good to pass up (or have absolute studs pushing them for roster spots).

[recte44]

I still wish they'd put him back in the rotation, but I suppose his injuries have ended that.

 

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[JohnBriggs12]

I still wish they'd put him back in the rotation, but I suppose his injuries have ended that.

 

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Yeah he was awfully good as a starter the last 6 weeks of 2013 but he's turned into a premier late inning reliever and I think he stays there. I don't see him being traded either.

[billymac]

If Stearns is offered a good package this winter, I'd move him. I think there will be really good offers for him this winter too. Been solid when healthy. Not sure what history shows on his type of elbow injury, his non-surgical recovery and chances of repeat are, but I'd rather not see him go through that in a Brewers uniform again.

[MKE81]

If Stearns is offered a good package this winter, I'd move him. I think there will be really good offers for him this winter too. Been solid when healthy. Not sure what history shows on his type of elbow injury, his non-surgical recovery and chances of repeat are, but I'd rather not see him go through that in a Brewers uniform again.

Good points. He was solid last year with good BB/K ratios and take away one bad outing in April his ERA would be almost a full run lower (2.78). This year had a 2.32 ERA in setup role and since Smith/Jeffress trades he's 7-8 on saves (blown save other night shouldn't even be looked at as that) with a line of 17.2ip 2h, 0er, 6bb, 20k as closer. Same BB rate as last year but increased K rate by 3 per 9.

 

The question for Stearns is if you get a great offer during winter do you pounce on it or do you let him go the first half as closer assuming he continues to pitch very well becoming an All Star while then having spent almost a full season in that role. He'll be 28 with 2.5yrs of control remaining at the break. If it plays out this way how much more do you think you can get for him next break vs this winter? I don't see a significant increase in value even with the All Star designation so I'd be inclined to take the trade over winter if it's great. People know what he can do

[MrTPlush]

If it plays out this way how much more do you think you can get for him next break vs this winter?

 

His value at the deadline is better than it would be in the winter. I think most teams prefer to role the dice since it is such a crap shoot every year. At the deadline teams are always looking to solidify their bullpens and sometimes the pickings are pretty slim like this year. Adding a guy like Thornburg down the stretch is huge. I will never forget when we added K-Rod and it just changed our season.

 

I am not one to hold onto relievers and gamble, but I wouldn't trade Thornburg for a "good" offer. It would have to be more than just good. If he pitches like this again next year he will be considered an elite closer. He could be worth a huge return next July. Id would need a pretty highly regarded prospect to not take that risk. If all they are offered are a couple good, but nothing special prospects I would pass. I would want more than they got for Smith.

[Austin Tatious]

I agree. I would be open minded to see what offers we get for Thorny but potentially try to capitalize next summer. Multiple contenders will need top relievers, you can count on that. I'd expect high bids next summer.

 

Thorny has arm talent. A former third round draft pick, he quickly was one of our top prospects. There was always concern about his height, so reliever was always in the back of our minds. But, he's always been well thought of and legit.

 

He has found his groove. His breaking ball is a nasty wipe-out pitch. His K rate is excellent as others pointed out.

 

He's going to be in demand. I was always in the camp that we'd get a haul for Will Smith, and we did. Smith is a hoss and southpaw, but Thorny may actually be a top of the line closer.

 

To make a long story even more excruciating, I'd see if we can get a haul in the winter (to avoid the risk of a catastrophic injury), but next summer may be the real time to deal Thorny.

 

I like that we kept our powder dry for a number of other deals for next year, like Thorny and Braun, but a few others. In the next period, 2016 draftees will be available to be dealt, plus there will be new data and reports about possible acquisitions.

[Roderick]

I like that we kept our powder dry for a number of other deals for next year, like Thorny and Braun,

 

Braun will have no-trade protection for all teams May 2017. I assume he might want a little something to give that up, even if it was to someone on the west coast or the Marlins.

[adambr2]

I like that we kept our powder dry for a number of other deals for next year, like Thorny and Braun,

 

Braun will have no-trade protection for all teams May 2017. I assume he might want a little something to give that up, even if it was to someone on the west coast or the Marlins.

 

Is it definitely May? I always assumed his 65 day suspension doesn't count as service time. That would put the 10/5 pretty close to the trade deadline next year.

[MrTPlush]

Well it was 65 games so that would make it more than just 65 days.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gotta start having a core to win around. Corey Kneble I thought was going to step up and be lights out but he's regressed from last year. We just got rid of Jeffress and Smith. The problem to me is, who steps up past Thornburg? You gotta give me a Bickford type of return to trade Thornburg.

 

You reset this offseason, find players to take the spots Jeffress/Smith/ and Thornburg were occupying. Kneble, Blazek, Cravy, Suter or Peralta even. Find your next trio that can assume the roles. Otherwise, you'll be seeing us trade to acquire these types in a few seasons, or spend too large a sum for a 70Inning RP.

[adambr2]

Well it was 65 games so that would make it more than just 65 days.

 

This information is a bit dated, but seems to answer the question :

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/service-time.html

 

Seems silly that a player continues to accrue service time while suspended, but there you go. That's the power of the MLBPA.

 

Makes it all the more important that if we're going to trade him, do it this offseason.

[MrTPlush]

Gotta start having a core to win around. Corey Kneble I thought was going to step up and be lights out but he's regressed from last year. We just got rid of Jeffress and Smith. The problem to me is, who steps up past Thornburg? You gotta give me a Bickford type of return to trade Thornburg.

 

You reset this offseason, find players to take the spots Jeffress/Smith/ and Thornburg were occupying. Kneble, Blazek, Cravy, Suter or Peralta even. Find your next trio that can assume the roles. Otherwise, you'll be seeing us trade to acquire these types in a few seasons, or spend too large a sum for a 70Inning RP.

 

While eventually you need to start building a core is a reliever with only 3 years of control really apart of that? Thornburg has massive value I don't think it is worth the risk to hold onto him much longer. You risk him regressing or us never really competing with him. They dumped Smith/Jeffress pretty fast and Thornburg is controlled just as long. Thornburg will pack his bags by the end of the trade deadline next year if he keeps up this kind of performance. It really wouldn't be hard to get a Thornburg type reliever with full control left. That is basically what they did in the Smith trade though Bickford is still starting at the moment.

 

Also you might have answered your own question.

[brewcrewdue80]

While eventually you need to start building a core is a reliever with only 3 years of control really apart of that? Thornburg has massive value I don't think it is worth the risk to hold onto him much longer. You risk him regressing or us never really competing with him. They dumped Smith/Jeffress pretty fast and Thornburg is controlled just as long. Thornburg will pack his bags by the end of the trade deadline next year if he keeps up this kind of performance. It really wouldn't be hard to get a Thornburg type reliever with full control left. That is basically what they did in the Smith trade though Bickford is still starting at the moment.

 

Also you might have answered your own question.

 

You also risk getting a Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena return for a surer thing that is Thornburg.

 

You answered that yourself, by already labeling Bickford as a RP even though he's still starting at the moment.

 

Prospects are just that.

Thornburg still has 3years of team control. I'm not saying he can't be traded ever and has to live out his contract as a Brewer. But his current ability, far exceeds the next Brewer RP current and future. It took him 2 injured seasons to reach this level during a Healthy season. Sounds potentially like? Corey Kneble. You gotta back the truck up to make it worth trading Thornburg this offseason. At this moment, When he's gone, I don't see a shutdown RP for the 8th or 9th innings and Milwaukee is looking at 2012 potential the next season or two or ongoing.

 

Edit add:John Axford still brought to the team Michael Blazek who is probably #2 behind Thornburg/Kneble right now as Closer. This was someone showing absolutely nothing of stat producing, and still got that kind of return. So Thornburg regressing or not, after this year, has value for the next 2.5seasons. Even Chapman's half year brought back Cubs #1 prospect+3. There's a lot of time to cash in on Thornburg or keep him should we rapidly climb in contending

[And That]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/giants-rumors-offseason-closer-melancon-chapman-jansen.html

 

The Giants are actively looking for bullpen help, though the article notes they might try the FA route first, namely Mark Melancon.

[JohnBriggs12]

In theory if the haul for Thornburg was significant enough, you have to consider it, but that would probably force them to sign a couple former closer types who are looking for opportunity to rebound after down seasons. Of the young arms around, Barnes might have the most promise as a closer.

 

Even on teams not serious about contending in a given season, having lead after lead blown late dampens the clubhouse significantly. The number one reason the 2012 Brewers did not return to the playoffs was not so much that Fielder was gone (the Brewers led the NL in runs scored that year), but that the late inning relief collapsed historically. The 2016 Brewer team for it's flaws, closed out games and that made all (fans included) feel better about this team.